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Downright Offensive: Documenting the D-backs' Struggles at the Plate

Saying that the offense has been pathetic so far is a needless waste of perfectly good oxygen. Although Arizonans are accustomed to drought, this kind of offensive putridity is on a whole new level. It would seemingly be fair to say that our anemic offense deserves the bulk of the blame for this slow start. The starting pitching has been solid, particularly if you ignore Webb's one start and Petit's balloonish ERA, and the bullpen, while below average so far, hasn't exactly coughed up many leads. Of course, we'd actually have to have those first to lose them.

Even though I enjoy watching the game for what it is, I have a great appreciation for the statistical nature of baseball. So while we could analyze swings and break down our inability to hit with runners in scoring position, I'm taking this opportunity to look at just how bad we've been at the plate, and what possible factors could be contributing to it.

At 3.69 runs per game, we're presently on pace to score 598 runs, by far the worst in the NL and in franchise history. On the plus side, we'd have to be considerably worse to merit inclusion among the all-time worst run-scoring seasons in the modern era -- for example, the Phillies scored 394 runs in 1942 (albeit in only 151 games, but they still averaged just 2.61 r/g [!] to set the record). The California Angels managed 454 runs in 1972 in 155 games, also averaging less than 3 per. So historically, we're not doing that bad, even if it feels that way sometimes. As a whole, the NL is averaging 4.71 runs a game, or 763 over a 162-game marathon.

Let's break down the numbers a bit further and see if a reason for our failures (yes, other than "we suck") comes to light. They're hidden behind the jump for those who go cross-eyed at charts.

Star-divide

Listed below are our totals in the season to date, followed by our rank in the National League and the "leader" in the NL in that particular category. If the Diamondbacks are eighth or above, the league leader is shown; if 9th or lower, and it's not us, the 16th-ranked team is listed.

OPS+ 75 15th Giants (73)
BA .232 16th
OBP .307 16th
SLG .393 t14th Giants (.363)
SO 269 4th Marlins (292)
SB 26 t2nd Mets (29)

 

Nothing here is particularly surprising, except maybe the number of stolen bases. After a slow (get it?) start, we're tied for 2nd in the NL and have the success rate all the way up to almost 75 percent. If we managed to have more people on first (more on that later), it's not too much of a stretch to think we could be leading the league in SBs. Strikeouts are still outrageously high, although we're not the worst in the league.

But OPS+ might be the most telling stat of all. The Diamondbacks manage to eke out San Francisco for last in the NL, but league average is 94, a full 19 points higher. However, only three teams in the NL have an OPS+ of worse than 90 (Florida, 81), skewing that average somewhat. And breaking it down individually doesn't help much either. Arizona has six of the 109 players who have enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. Their rankings are seen below:

 

Name OPS+ NL Rank
Justin Upton 141 17th
Felipe Lopez 121 39th
Mark Reynolds 108 52nd
Eric Byrnes 58 98th
Chris Young 40 106th
Conor Jackson 31 108th

 

That's right: former wunderkid Conor Jackson's struggles this season have ravished him (no, hotclaws, not like that) to the point where he ranks only ahead of Brian Giles in the National League. And three of our regulars this season have been among the 12 worst in the league. Hard to carry an offense with that kind of dead weight not only in the lineup, but hitting in the top half from time to time. On the bright side, Justin Upton continues to impress despite his age, and his numbers would be even more impressive if not for his slump to start the season. Felipe Lopez has been about as good as we could have hoped, and Reynolds is putting up above-average numbers.

Let's take a little bit different approach, then. Last season, the Diamondbacks hit the fewest number of singles in baseball. Has that trend continued as well?

HR 36 7th COL/MIL (45)
3B 4 16th
2B 71 4th Dodgers (74)
1B 160 15th Phillies (159)

 

Hey, lookie there! Philadelphia has one less single than we do so far. Of course, it's worth pointing out that they've played four fewer games than us, so that prooooobably won't last. In fact, these numbers can't help but be slightly skewed -- only the Dodgers have as many games played as the Diamondbacks through yesterday's action.

So it seems the same problems that plagued us through the final five months of 2008 are still hanging around through the early parts of 2009, without an unsustainably hot month of April to skew our place in the standings. The team doesn't have a problem hitting for power, even with a number of its regulars struggling (although the number of triples vs. doubles is curious, given what you would perceive as above-average team speed). But even all those extra-base hits keep Arizona mired in 14th in slugging percentage, because there simply aren't enough hits to go around.

Jenny already put together a great piece earlier on the struggles of this team versus the 111-loss team of 2004. As mentioned before the jump, the current roster's pace would still be worse than in 2004 by 17 runs. Granted, the pitching on that team outside of Randy Johnson was terrible (almost 900 RA), but the Diamondbacks still fall short of the .253/.310/.393 line that the '04 squad put up. It should be noted that in 2004, no one but Shea Hillenbrand had more than 65 RBI -- but then again, no one struck out more than 90 times either. Since RBIs aren't exactly the best measure of a hitter, we'll ignore that for now.

What's the end result of all this? Basically, the team doesn't get on base enough. I know, I know -- "Chris, we didn't need some fancy-ass charts to get us to that conclusion." But it's remarkable how terrible this offense really is when you compare it to both the other teams in the National League and years past. Where that fundamental breakdown happened in the organization (scouting? Talent evaluation? Player development? Major/minor league coaching staffs?) is a matter of debate for another day, but the bottom line is that without significant, unexpected improvement, the 2009 Arizona Diamondbacks are in severe trouble. Strap in, folks; it's gonna be a bumpy ride.

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Interesting read. I really appreciate this site. I will say that since Hinch took over we’ve improved offensively, and although that’s not a large sample, if it’s the beginning of an upward trend perhaps there’s some hope we won’t end as bad offensively as we’ve begun.
Perhaps I’m foolish and overly optimistic, but I hold out some hope we can still make a run at .500. Maybe Drew will start hitting and Parra supply much more offensively than we’ve had from left and or center, and maybe someone else will hit more from an outfield position than we’ve had so far. Heck, maybe we’ll add another outfielder somehow that’ll help us offensively.

Mark Davis
EIC
Surprising Comics

by sayheyupton on May 15, 2009 12:04 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Sales Pitch

I like the research you did. It’s like having to do a sales pitch for a product you know doesn’t work or that you wouldn’t buy. The team didn’t have a problem bringing in talent when Rizzo was here drafting and scouting. The Nationals are better for it now.

On a side note, the Dbacks can’t win even if they don’t play. The Mannyless Dodgers won again today dropping our team a pathetic 10.5 games back. It’s time to cast the white flag. Might as well play all the young kids now so the team knows who they want to keep. If we couldn’t compete with the Nats and Reds at home, this next 9 game road trip will do the team in for good. Predictions are 3-6 only because the A’s have been about as inept offensively as the Dbacks.

I was watching the post game presser last night where Hinch was talking about the ‘sprit’ of the fight missing from the team. That they need to have fun when they play the game. Last I checked, baseball ceases to be a game once you become a paid employee. It’s a profession. Having fun is secondary to getting paid. I’m sure they are all saying the right things but they could care less about winning and losing. I’m sure the pitchers care because that reflects on their free agency prospects.

Now that the team has successfully buried themselves in the standings and had their manager fired, it’s going to be even harder for Hinch to keep the team mentally together to fight for a cause. It’s evident in the play on the field. Not running out grounders to first, missing the cutoff man, throwing to the wrong base, etc. I’m not sure if that’s the team’s response to having their manager get fired, to play worse than you’ve been playing. The gaffs this team are making on a nightly basis are embarrassing. I can’t believe Gibson, of all coaches, has not thrown Hinch out onto the field because the gatorade jug is too far to grab in the dugout.

by haas on May 15, 2009 3:31 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

EYESIGHT?

Maybe many of the batting lineup need to be tested for glasses?They can’t seem to see the line or height of the pitches thrown at them! Even Augie,low to the ground, swings at pitches over his shoulder.

by AZshortstop on May 15, 2009 9:47 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

One key thing I'd point out

Is it’s not a universal problem. If we order the production by OPS+, we see some big differences:

Upton: 141
Lopez: 117
Reynolds: 108
Ojeda: 99
Snyder: 75
Byrnes: 60
Tracy: 47
Young: 40
Jackson: 31

Jackson is the big problem, simply because his output is so far beyond what was expected from him [his OPS+ in the last two years was 110]. Combine that with the fact that the alternatives at both 1B and LF – Tracy and Byrnes – have been almost as bad most of the time, and we have two positions, generally expected to be significant drivers of the offense, that are basically providing zero output.

"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil

by Jim McLennan on May 15, 2009 12:18 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Which is very similar

to the key thing I pointed out. lol

My list didn’t include a couple of those people since they had less at-bats, so it’s still all good.

by Azreous on May 15, 2009 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's the positional thing

That I was really trying to point out – and not doing very well, it has to be said. Having offensive suckage is one thing, but offensive suckage at 1B (NL avg. OPS+ 119) and LF (120), is what completely hammers us. Let’s do it this way. Here’s the team sOPS+ by position, which compares the team’s OPS+ against the league OPS+. So, for example, it compares how our catchers are doing against the league catchers.

C: 93
1B: 34
2B: 131
3B: 130
SS: 81
LF: 48
CF: 44
RF: 132
P: 86
PH: 119

This does a better job than my previous attempt of illustrating the specific holes in our lineup: 1B, LF and CF. It’s comforting to realize that the call-ups of Parra and Whitesell appear to be addressing these specific positions. Overall, our infield is a 94, and the outfield a 73, so getting better output from two of Byrnes, Young and Parra is probably crucial.

"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil

by Jim McLennan on May 15, 2009 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Whitesell actually isn't helping

He’s 2 for 21 and is hitting .095/.269/.412 right now (the 5 walks are helping his OBP)

by snakecharmer on May 15, 2009 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Where are you getting a SLG of .412?

I’m getting .143, with an OPS of .412… Anyway, that should certainly be 3-for-21, thanks to Lopez failing to get home on the force. He also has a BABIP of .118, the worst of anyone on the team with 20+ PA’s. He isn’t helping yet, but it wouldn’t take much more than mediocre luck, to be an improvement over Jackson and Tracy

"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil

by Jim McLennan on May 15, 2009 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh oops I didn't know the order :)

Yeah .412 was OPS! It was a nice big number, I wanted to use it. ;)

Yeah I think he is an improvement over there at first, or will be eventually, it’s just too bad that he was tearing up AAA and is getting off to a slow start here..

by snakecharmer on May 15, 2009 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ah.

Yeah, considering the horrid lines that our outfielders not named Upton have put up, it isn’t surprising that we’re so terrible next to league average at the other two OF positions. Our production at first is embarrassing though. And the fact that our pitchers outhit four other positions pretty much sums up the 2009 Arizona Diamondbacks.

Your point about Parra and Whitesell is pretty solid. Even if they suck as well, it’s at least an attempt to address the most glaring holes in the lineup right now. That’s why Whitesell helps even though his numbers to this point are both awful and unlucky.

by Azreous on May 15, 2009 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just to clarify

The pitchers aren’t “outhitting” the other positions as such, because the 86 number compares our pitchers’ OPS+ against the league’s pitchers’ OPS+. They are still hitting below average compared to other teams’ pitchers, but suck relatively less than our 1B, compared to other teams’ 1B.

Does that make sense?

"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil

by Jim McLennan on May 15, 2009 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah.

Somehow in the middle of that first graph I lost track of that. I blame going to bed at 4.

by Azreous on May 15, 2009 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Pssshht.

I went to bed after 5, and it didn’t affect me? ::falls over::

Jim Zorn, 55. Sean Miller, 40. AJ Hinch, 34. Notice a pattern here?

by DbacksSkins on May 15, 2009 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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