Conor Jackson
.305/.385/.460 (.845), 15HR, 87RBI

I see Conor getting a large benefit by remaining in the same position (crosses fingers) the entire year, and he is by far the best hitter on our team. I would like to see him hit a few more home runs, but that’s not really his game. As always, I am open to being proven wrong in that department.

Chris Young
.255/.330/.465 (.795), 25HR, 90RBI, 19SB

I think CY’s reported emphasis and natural growth combine for a nice year at the plate. His average is still a little sub-par, but no longer leading off should help bump up his HR and RBI totals as he’ll see better pitches. We have not seemed as committed to stealing bags like we were 2 years ago, so I don’t see him getting to 20.

Justin Upton
.260/.360/.480 (.840), 20HR, 75RBI

I see a solid year from J-Up, but I hope his largest improvement comes defensively. Still nothing to look down upon considering he’s only 21.

Eric “Hammy” Byrnes
.263/.335/.420 (.755), 11HR, 48RBI

Eric returns to a position he has been many times before in his career: a spot-starting 4th outfielder. His numbers could fluctuate a lot depending on how often Melvin sends him out to pinch-hit (or pinch-pop out as the case may be) and how he responds to that role. I think the additional rest he’s getting in ST will help him once the games start counting.

Conor Jackson-303 average, 15 homeruns, 78 RBIs.

Chris Young-258 average, 26 homeruns, 85 RBIs.

Justin Upton-273 average, 23 homeruns, 74 RBIs.

Eric Byrnes-245 average, 9 homeruns, 32 RBIs.

The projections for him are weird for me as well, but I think they average his first two seasons, and his first season was terrible (.647 OPS). It works well to gauge what you can reasonably expect from a 6 year veteran but not really in Upton’s case. I mean, all 4 systems save BJ project him to lose between 20 and 30 points of ISO!!! At the old age of 21 :)

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I’m assuming those couple of months of below replacement level production in 2007 cost us a controlled year of Upton (had we kept him in the minors for that year). If that’s true, it’s a terrible, terrible decision.

Anyway, even if he stays more or less the same offensively, if he can become a plus defender in right, he will be worth an additional win or two.

My guesses projections:

Conor Jackson: .304/.381/.448, 15 HR, 82 RBI
Chris Young: .257/.327/.468, 27 HR, 91 RBI
Justin Upton: .262/.350/.491, 26 HR, 83 RBI
Eric Byrnes: .249/.331/.419, 9 HR, 51 RBI

Conor Jackson: .307, 18 HR, 79 RBI
Chris Young: .266, 22 HR, 74 RBI
Justin Upton: .270, 21 HR, 66 RBI
Eric Byrnes: .258, 12 HR, 35 RBI

Consider this: The Diamondbacks are 120-92 with Eric Byrnes in the lineup the last two years, and 52-60 without him. Let’s just hope he’s healthy and playing well (because clearly this is a significant statistic).

He was worth 3.3 wins to us in ’06 and 3.9 in ’07 (using fangraphs metrics that take into account stolen bases, defense and positional value). The only position player that comes close to that is Jackson with 3.4 in ’08.

In fact, even if we take into account that he was -0.9 wins for us last year, his total 6.3 wins between ’06 and ’08 is second only to Hudson.

Hudson: 7.8
Byrnes: 6.3
Snyder: 5.6
Jackson: 5.5
Reynolds: 4
Drew: 3.8
Young: 3.7
Tracy: 2.9
Montero: 1.7
Ojeda: 1.5

If Byrnes is healthy and able to get back to his ‘06-’07 level, we’ll be a lot better off.

Also, looking at this, Hudson seems like a big loss, as Lopez was worth 2.8 wins in the last 3 years, but the systems project Hudson to be only about half a win better with the bat (on average) and as for defense, UZR really doesn’t like Hudson, rating him at -7.4 runs during his 3 years with us (an average of about -2.5). Lopez was at -5.5 last year, playing there full time for the first time in his career. So I guess it’s realistic to expect a total loss of about one win, unless Lopez improves his defense or keeps hitting like he did in the second half of last season for the entire year. Which isn’t much.