Community Projections, Part 2: Outfielders

A little disappointed in the number of responses posted to the previous projections - partly my own fault, as we've had a lot more posts this week, and the infielders post vanished towards the bottom of the page (and now off it!) pretty quickly. Hoping for better in this batch, and we should certainly have a lot to discuss in the performance of our four outfielders.

LF. Conor Jackson
2008: .300/.376/.446 (.822), 12 HR, 75 RBI
Bill James: .296/.379/.459 (.838), 15 HR, 81 RBI
Chone: .296/.384/.465 (.849), 14 HR, 74 RBI
Marcel: .291/.370/.449 (.819), 14 HR, 73 RBI
Oliver: .281/.357/.434 (.791), 15 HR
ZIPS: .296/.377/.454 (..831), 13 HR, 74 RBI

Jackson looks to head into Opening Day as the starting left-fielder for the first ever time, and this stability should prove helpful: defensively, it's certainly his best spot. I expect CoJack to be close to the same level of production as last season, hitting close to .300, and possibly with the best OBP on the team. The big question-mark is over his power - he had no homers at all over the last two months and 200 at-bats. Word is that an injury may have robbed him of that, and I think he should be good for a few more homers than that.
AZ SnakePit: .298/.380/.450 (.830), 17 HR, 88 RBI

CF. Chris Young
2008: .248/.315/.443 (.758), 22 HR, 85 RBI
Bill James: .255/.325/.480 (.805), 26 HR, 86 RBI
Chone: .260/.336/.482 (.818), 25 HR, 88 RBI
Marcel: .251/.317/.452 (.769), 23 HR, 78 RBI
Oliver: .240/.306/.446 (.752), 28 HR
ZIPS: .254/.319/.484 (..803), 30 HR, 93 RBI

After hitting a low of .295 on August 3rd, Young's OBP recovered: it was .361 the rest of the way, and while we probably can't expect that for an entire season, an extra 20 points or so over 2008's figure would be very handy and quite plausible. That'll probably come equally from hits and walks, and will hopefully not lead to any change in his home-run numbers. Another key aspect will be his SB numbers: estimates in these system range from 17-20, but I'm thinking it'll be a few higher than that.
AZ SnakePit: .258/.335/.455 (.790), 23 HR, 90 RBI, 24 SB

RF. Justin Upton
2008: .250/.353/.463 (.816), 15 HR, 52 RBI
Bill James: .263/.356/.488 (.844), 22 HR, 79 RBI
Chone: .257/.349/.444 (.793), 16 HR, 69 RBI
Marcel: .264/.352/.454 (.806), 13 HR, 54 RBI
Oliver: .253/.326/.435 (.761), 13 HR
ZIPS: .265/.349/.457 (..806), 19 HR, 71 RBI

Projecting 21-year old players is almost impossible, but I'm surprised four of the five systems here expect Upton to go backwards? I'm with the Bill James projection, and a step forward for our young phenom. The last 20-year old to play 100 games in the majors was Adrian Beltre, and his line increased by .15/.08/.47 the following season. That seems plausible here, though I don't expect Upton's SLG to go up quite that much. He's another one I expect to do much better on the basepaths; than last year, where he was caught four times in five attempts.
AZ SnakePit: .265/.361/.485 (.846), 23 HR, 88 RBI

Utility OF. Eric Byrnes
2008: .209/.272/.369 (.641), 6 HR, 23 RBI
Bill James: .257/.320/.433 (.753), 16 HR, 57 RBI
Chone: .259/.322/.428 (.750), 17 HR, 60 RBI
Marcel: .260/.323/.436 (.759), 12 HR, 44 RBI
Oliver: .253/.312/.420 (.732), 7 HR
ZIPS: .262/.323/.436 (..759), 13 HR, 53 RBI

If Byrnes performs anything like 2008, he won't see much playing time. Indeed, if the projections are right, his only hope of significant games is if Chris Young meets the pessimistic ones and Eric is right at the other end. Health is obvious the biggest question here, and if he's fit, he'll get whatever playing time his performance deserves, spelling all three outfielders as needed. He's certainly better than the alternative reserves we have to hand, such as Alex Romero, but expecting any more out of Byrnes than that... We can but hope.
AZ SnakePit: .258/.320/.430 (.750), 13 HR, 45 RBI

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