Crazy Trade Idea
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 9, 2009 9:13 PM EST
56 comments
Let's see what everyone thinks of this - The Marlins are looking to deal Dan Uggla, and, in classic Marlins fashion, are looking for little to no salary coming back to them, including some prospects who will at some point be able to fill in for Uggla. Estimates I've heard for his likely salary for 2010 range around $7M, up only a slight amount from $5.35M in 2009 due to a relative off-year from Uggla. If we eat all but $2M of Snyder's salary for next season (or however much we need to shed to fit in Uggla), and all of Snyder's salary for 2011, perhaps the same with Eric Byrnes, or deal one of the Roberts/Ryal/Ojeda trio as a cost-efficient replacement for the Marlins, perhaps lure in a third team, etc., could we spin a way to get Uggla? For $7M, we're not going to find a much better bat on the market, and we could easily move the guy to first (since his D at second is suspect at best anyways). For example, the Rangers have one of the most loaded farm systems in all of baseball. Theyre not going to give up a Smoak or Feliz, or even an Andrus, since they're not going to be the team getting the big name player, but something like this could ensue:
D-Backs get:
2B/1B Dan Uggla from FLA
Marlins get:
2B Ryan Roberts from AZ
RHP Michael Main from TEX (ranked #90 prospect in baseball before '09, had miserable '09 season at Hi-A, but will be just 21 for all of next season)
LHP Tom Layne from AZ
OF Collin Cowgill from AZ
Rangers get:
C Chris Snyder from AZ (D-Backs eat entire salary for next two seasons except $2M total, preferrably both for this season).
Fringier prospects from AZ
The Rangers desperately need a catcher, and Main's massive struggle year, combined with Arizona's eating of a huge chunk of Snyder's salary (just enough to fit in Uggla, as a matter of fact) would be a way to get a cost-efficient catching option for a team needing a catching option desperately (perhaps, if necessary, we could give Texas another prospect of marginal value, a Cesar Valdez or Taylor Harbin). For Florida, They shed lots of salary, get three good prospects, one in Main who has high upside, and two in Layne and Cowgill who are more low-risk, and a cost-efficient replacement for Uggla in Roberts who plays better D and can mash LHP. If they want more upside, perhaps we could give more to Texas and pray that we could pry a better prospect from them to give to Florida. We give up even more prospects, but isn't Dan Uggla worth it? Seems like the perfect bat that we're looking for, and he fits our budget nicely if we can shed that $2M or so from Snyder. We could even condition the deal on a negotiating period/extension with Uggla.
Don't worry, I know this is more than a little bit fantastical, but this is why I love winter meetings. Let me know who you think blinks at this deal.
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If we're going for trades
and the Rangers pull off this Mike Lowell trade, Chris Davis instantly becomes available. The Rangers really have no future plan for Davis as he can’t stay at 3B and Smoak is the 1B of the future. He’s under team control for 5 more years and is the league minimum. A trade for him would basically add a second Mark Reynolds to the lineup, which could be a good or bad thing. Depending on how you feel about 200 strikeout seasons.
Indianapolis Colts, taking focus away from my DBacks every Sunday.
Reynolds >>> Davis
Davis is kinda like Reynolds Lite.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 10, 2009 12:30 AM EST up reply actions
Noooooo
I don’t want a guy who was sent to the minors this year, regardless of his power… Of the bats I’m hearing are available, I like the following: Uggla (move to 1B), Kotchman, Beltre (move Reynolds to 1B – we have filthy IF defense if so with Abreu, Drew, and Beltre all above-average or plus), Delgado (believe it, his bat is still real and he’s gonna be awfully cheap with the age/injury concerns – I feel better about Delgado on a one-year deal than Nick Johnson on a three-year deal – thankfully, so do the Snakes, who balked at giving NJ more than two years), and Nady. If we’re thinking arms, I think swinging a deal for Rafael Soriano could be a great move, and the Braves desperately need to move him, or signing Chan Ho Park would be a similar heist, as long as we don’t even bother to consider him a spot starter candidate. He’s a pure reliever at this point, and if left alone, a darn good one.
Also, the Rangers apparently offered Neftali Feliz AND Justin Smoak to the Marlins for Josh Johnson. That’s a scary offer if you’re the Rangers… If I own a team that plays in that stadium, I don’t give up a young arm and a guy with that much power for a different, albeit better, young arm.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 10, 2009 3:02 AM EST up reply actions
On the Beltre note:
He moves to the NL, which means feasting on those NL fifth guys who wouldn’t make it in the AL, and he moves from playing in a cavern at Safeco to Chase. Some of his missing power from a couple years ago would come back. Seems like a good gamble to me.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 10, 2009 3:03 AM EST up reply actions
He also
Had surgery to remove bone spurs in his elbow, which probably cost him some bat speed.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 10, 2009 3:05 AM EST up reply actions
Beltre
will be good, but I don’t think he’s in our price range.
Kotchman can’t hit.
Drew is not an above average defender.
Nady is not a good player.
Soriano and Park are good options, depending on the price.
Beltre
Will be a lot more reasonably paid. He just had an OPS in the .600’s. I’d imagine he’ll definitely come within our $7M left.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 10, 2009 10:35 PM EST up reply actions
Beltre's salary
I don’t think so. He’s excellent defensively, and his home park hurt his offensive stats. Beltre has been making around $12M the last few years. He declined salary arbitration, which would have almost certainly paid him over $10M, so he must be expecting something in that ballpark.
He wants years
And he knew the Mariners were going after Figgins. As much as he wants money, I’m sure the guy also wants to play a little too. Even if he had taken arbitration, the M’s would have done what the Braves did to Soriano.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 11, 2009 12:42 AM EST up reply actions
Agreed.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 11, 2009 4:06 AM EST up reply actions
wow
Neftail Feliz and Smoak?
What are they SMOAKING?
sorry…
Anyway, the Rangers would be fools to do that trade. That would seem to go against everything they do..
Pedro Cerrano: Jesus, I like him very much, but he no help with curveball.
Eddie Harris: You trying to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?
A-Greed
Smoak is going to absolutely be devastating at Arlington. In that ballpark, the difference between Feliz and Johnson is not worth Smoak. Not at all.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 11, 2009 4:07 AM EST up reply actions
Ive been wondering
If Scherzer’s name was ever dropped in front of the Marlins for Johnson.
by Counsellmember on Dec 11, 2009 10:21 AM EST up reply actions
Thing is
If we were going to give up Scherzer, it would have been to get two arms in return, not just one. So we would have needed to give up a lot more than Schlereth with Scherzer to get Josh Johnson and another of their starters.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 11, 2009 8:21 PM EST up reply actions
You are right about all this
I just wondered if we had gone to ANY other team to guage his value.
by Counsellmember on Dec 11, 2009 8:53 PM EST up reply actions
So...many...strikeouts....
Now I know we’ve all come to (sort-of) accept the strikeout with Reynold’s success, but a team with Reynolds, CY, Chris Davis, and Justin Upton might make my head explode.
Let's see
if Uggla really WANTS to come back here?
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
This, of course,
Is a dilemma…
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 10, 2009 2:24 AM EST up reply actions
General thoughts
1) Uggla is not that valuable. Even if he provides average defense at first, which is not guaranteed, his bat will become more ordinary. The average NL 1B hit .282/.373/.485 last year. Uggla hit .243/.354/.459. Also, read this.
It says he’s looking at a salary of $9M. If we try to estimate WAR, CHONE projects him to hit for 11 runs above average, and BJ says 13. We split the difference and say 12. If he plays 2B, his defense is -7 (TotalZone projection) and the positional adjustment is 2.5. That’s 7.5 runs above average or 27.5 runs above replacement. So he’s a 2.5 – 3 WAR second baseman.
The positional adjustment for first base is -12.5, which means if he’s an average defender at first, the move makes him a 2 WAR player. That’s essentially market rate for $9M, which means we shouldn’t be giving up anything of value, let alone Roberts, who is a 1 – 1.5 WAR player who we have for free.
And where do you get this money? From what we’ve heard, we have about $6M to spend, and you’re talking about paying Snyder $8M to go away (which means giving Hester 200-300 PA next season which is scary) and paying Uggla $8-9M this year. Of course, like that article says, he’s likely a non tender candidate for next season, since his salary will be $11-12M which he’s hardly going to be worth.
Also, if you get him and move him to first, who plays second?
Uggla's BABIP completely trashed his year.
As a BABIP specialist, you ought to know this. :-)
Also, Roberts won’t be a 1-1.5 WAR player next year, because he won’t get much PT. We are putting Abreu out there with Ryal or Roberts or Ojeda for platooning. We just picked up Abreu and we’re giving him a chance.
I think people have underestimated the money we have left. Since we started with about $10M before the Jackson deal, sent away Scherzer who makes about $2M (due to his signing bonus), got back Jackson’s likely $5M, and Schlereth and Kennedy balance out. So we have around $7M.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 10, 2009 10:39 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah
BABIP for batters != BABIP for pitchers
He might be in for some regression, but the projections don’t agree
Same general concept
His K-rates and BB-rates remained same, as well as his power rates. If his average climbs, he becomes an absolute power monster, and is at a relative low-point in his value.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 11, 2009 4:08 AM EST up reply actions
Not really
Once a pitcher throws a pitch, he has no control over whether it gets fielded or not.
As for batters, there are many things you can influence to get a higher BABIP, like hit balls hard (line drive), not pop up, run fast, etc. Of course, there’s a lot of luck and defense involved, but there are players who have consistent career BABIPs of .320 and above, and some that are under .280. You don’t see that for pitchers.
Uggla's
Has consistently been above .300. Last year it was around .280.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 11, 2009 8:21 PM EST up reply actions
Haven't
we already paid Scherzer’s signing bonus?
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 11, 2009 10:16 AM EST up reply actions
His contract is weird
And the Tigers will pay a prorated portion of his bonus. $1.5M or so per. He’s not a minimum salary guy.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 11, 2009 8:22 PM EST up reply actions
Hmmm....
that IS weird.
I mean, I’m glad to hear it, but it’s weird.
Even Satan thinks Scott Boras is evil.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 12, 2009 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
well not so sure about your C numbers
because Montero will be playing those 120 games, not Hester and Miggy did quite well after taking over last year, does that translate to this year… who knows. Snyder isn’t gone yet, who knows if we’re picking up his salary or how much of it. If you’re moving Ugglas to 1st, then I suspect you have either Ryal or Abreu manning 2b.
I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....
I'm assuming you're replying to me?
Montero will play 110 games (or so), which will still at least 200 PA (more like 250) for a backup catcher.
Snyder isn’t gone, but I’m responding to a hypothetical scenario outlined by IHSB.
It’s either Ryal and Abreu, and while Ryal had a nice cup of coffee last year, and Abreu is highly regarded, Roberts proved last year he could handle the job full time. These two are question marks.
As for who I’d go for, I already wrote about Hinske as a dirt cheap option for a platoon in LF. LaRoche can be a nice platoon partner for Allen or Whitesell at first base, but only if he accepts less than $4-5 on a one year deal, which I assume he won’t.
Another cheap alternative is Joe Crede. He is a great defender at 3rd, and a slightly below average bat, and he won’t ask for more than $2-3M. You move Mark to first and there you have it, your infield sorted and still some money left to get another bullpen guy.
As for trades, I have no idea who is even available..
ummm, maybe not
you’re thnking that we’re gonna sit Miggy every third day? With the numbers he put up last year, maybe every fourth is more likely. So I’m guessing we’ll see him in about 120+. In 2008 he played in 70 games and only had 170+ PA which isn’t the 250 you’re implying.
I agree on the 2nd possible platoon of Ryal and Abreu, I think either of them could step in for Roberts and give us what is needed.
I like Reynolds at 3rb, I think he’s progressing nicely, I think we need a more solid 1b glove to reduce the errors for the rest of the IF, a decent glove man automatically will make Reynolds, Drew and whoever is at 2nd look a bit better but as to who could or would do the job… I’m inclined to see if Allen can step up and do a better job when platooned with Jackson, but I wouldn’t be adverse to exploring a glove first contact hitter type and leaving Jackson in LF
I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....
Yeah
It’s probably for the best to sit Miggy against lefties, give him a rest etc. We’ll probably do it with Snyder, if he stays.
One of them could, but, like I said, it’s a question mark.
I also like Reynolds at third, but there aren’t any good 1B free agents available, so I tried something different.
If you're relying on Roberts
A guy who “proved” he can handle the job after never putting up the kind of numbers he had last year in the MINORS, then you have some immense double-standards in terms of one-year production spikes.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 10, 2009 10:40 PM EST up reply actions
I hear ya, i think our loss of Cojack
had bigger implications that many want to admit. While he wasn’t a spectacular 1B (he’s no Albert Pujols, but hey how many of those are there?), he was better with the glove there than Allen, Whitsell, Clark and Reynolds. That led to more errors, by way of more throws not being picked up off of hops and pick-offs that weren’t gloved. That led to higher pitch counts for guys, more guys in scoring position and extended innings.
I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....
IMHO
Allen is a pretty decent glove at first. Much better footwork and basal instincts than cojack, whitesell, et cetera
"When fascism comes to this country, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross" - Upton Sinclair
i agree completely
the first game i attended with allen at first, i turned to my girlfriend and said “holy crap, they have a real first baseman.”
like a tornado hitting a jelly bean factory on Halloween.
I agree
That’s why we call him The Octopus.
"I can just see it: Post 'Intervention? Why would I need an intervention?' And then he'd +1 himself."
damn reply button
sheesh, I hate it when that happens :-)
I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....
I'd take casilla in a minute.
"When fascism comes to this country, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross" - Upton Sinclair
do not want.
uggla is in decline. not that you have us giving up anything of too substantial value, just don’t want uggla. they need to give abreu and ryal a chance to fight it out.
note: i might be the biggest ryal fan. he hasn’t done anything spectacular defensively, but he did almost kill a dodger and that ranks pretty high in my book.
like a tornado hitting a jelly bean factory on Halloween.
Uggla doesn't float my boat like some
I am satisfied with our 2nd base situation; we have up to four guys battling for the spot, some with more offensive upside, but defense is our strength there. If the worst case scenario is handing the job to one guy or a platoon that is seen as “glove first”, Im OK with that. And Uggla’s power is really all I’d be interested in.
If we want a crazy trade that has a good chance of significantly upgrading our offense, I see one man that makes sense: Milton Bradley.
1. I’d be surprised if a Bradley/Byrnes trade didnt come out light in AZ’s favor. I think we could squeeze either low prospects or money out of that deal. Cubs are desperate right now.
2. OBP is the team’s biggest need, and this guy has it. Not to mention good average and pluys power.
3. Great outfield defense. Plus plus in RF, and average at worst in CF. Pick your poison with moving Upton to center or making CY fight for playing time. There are options here.
4. The attitude. It’s been a problem. But I think for a guy like this, he’s happy when he’s producing. Put him in a hitter’s park, watch the HRs fly, and he becomes this carefree happy dude. Not saying he will become a leader, but we have some strong leader types that set my mind to rest.
It’s a bit of a risk, but the upsdie is so great. Hinges on Byrnes being the trade piece, though.
by Counsellmember on Dec 10, 2009 12:42 PM EST reply actions
Snyder could be the trade piece.
If they give us money so that Snyder’s and Bradley’s ‘10 salaries are equal, but they still pay Snyder’s ‘11. That way it makes up for the attitude/value difference. And Soto wasn’t too impressive in ’09…
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 10, 2009 10:44 PM EST up reply actions
The Cubs still like Soto, though.
Also, aren’t they cutting salary?
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 10, 2009 11:00 PM EST up reply actions
Well...
Damn. Take on an extra million or two to save the money next season?
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 11, 2009 12:43 AM EST up reply actions
to save the money in '11.*
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 11, 2009 8:23 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I got what you're saying, though.
Even Satan thinks Scott Boras is evil.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 12, 2009 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
I think they upped overall payroll slightly
I’m not sure, but I think that means they’ll have slightly less money available after paying their core players. They’ve made several small moves that frees up some though – losing Gregg and trading Heilman for instance.
Snyder could
But I’d explore Byrnes first. Maybe I’m wrong about the Bradley/Byrnes trade still favoring AZ, but I’d thow in low prospects to clear that guy. At this point EB has no place on our roster, whereas Snyder still has a lot of value to us, even as a backup.
by Counsellmember on Dec 11, 2009 10:20 AM EST up reply actions
moving snyder
for bradley wouldn’t make a ton of sense, if only because we would then have upton, young, jackson, parra, bradley AND byrnes fighting for playing time in only three spots, also wasting bench space. i guess parra would be relegated to aaa in that scenario.
if playing time and success are going to turn milton into g’pa bradley then we’re stuck with an allstar calliber player on the bench every single day, more on aj’s charity days when byrnes gets a look.
like a tornado hitting a jelly bean factory on Halloween.
Agree
Byrnes is the piece that makes this potential trade work.
And it is just KILLING me to hear about how desperate the Cubs are. I’ve heard rumors on XM Radio that there are even whispers about them cutting bait on Bradley completely. I really really hope our FO is at least exploring the possibility.
by Counsellmember on Dec 11, 2009 1:26 PM EST up reply actions
That's valid.
I suppose my thought is that Brynes’ salary is gone at the end of this year anyways and we’d like to dump Snyder from the ’11 books. And Parra could definitely use a year in the minors to learn how to hit lefties. Biggest thing for me is that it screws Gillespie. I really want to see what that kid can do.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 11, 2009 8:27 PM EST up reply actions
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