Edwin Jackson, Ian Kennedy to D-backs, Daniel Schlereth, Max Scherzer to Tigers
by Jim McLennan on Dec 8, 2009 2:11 PM EST
in News
477 comments
Jon Heyman is tweeting that the three-way trade between the Yankees, Tigers and Diamondbacks is a go, pending medicals on the players concerned. The Yankees get Curtis Granderson, the Diamondbacks get Edwin Jackson and Ian Jackson, and the Tigers get Max Scherzer, Daniel Schlereth and a couple of Yankees players. Steve Gilbert also says, "Looks like the three-way trade is going to happen," so that's good enough for me.
Edwin Jackson is 26 and has a career ERA+ of 96 in 110 starts, but had a very solid 2009, posting a 3.62 ERA for the Tigers (ERA+ of 127). Ian Kennedy is 25 and has a career ERA of 6.03, but has only made a dozen starts in the majors. More details and analysis to follow in due course.
While initial fan reaction seems to have been overwhelmingly negative, thus far, put me in the 'meh' category as far as our poll goes. The plus side of the deal is that we, effectively, turned a reliever in Schlereth, into a starter in Kennedy. This effectively fills a hole in the rotation, at relatively little additional cost: Jackson is arb-eligible, but will certainly be cheaper than a free-agent. The negative side, is that we swapped about five years of control over Scherzer, for two years of Jackson - and, in addition, Kennedy has not exactly shown an impressive track record at the major-league level.
Nick Piecoro had some interesting thoughts on the trade, reading between the lines. He thinks it implies that the Diamondbacks possibly have some qualms about Scherzer's long-term presence in the rotation and/or think Kennedy is a better bet for that. While Scherzer's 2009 season was certainly a solid performance, there have still been doubts about his stamina, ability to pitch deep into games and questions over whether he has a good enough third pitch to be a reliable starter.
By most reports, Kennedy has not been projected as being a great deal more than a #4 in the rotation. While that's a spot which needs to be filled for the Diamondbacks, one does wonder about the long-term benefits, after Jackson becomes a free-agent, at the end of the 2011 season. Would we rather have Kennedy or Scherzer in the rotation at that point? However, I suspect the team will be looking to the likes of Jarrod Parker to be filling the front of our starting pitching for 2012 and beyond. Be interesting to hear the explanation from Josh Byrnes, etc.
Ken Rosenthal says the reason for dealing Scherzer is that Arizona "view Scherzer as a reliever, not a starter. Scherzer had Tommy John surgery in high school. He was a reliever in college. And his mechanics remain a concern." Therefore, we are effectively converting two relievers into two starters." However, neutral opinion on the trade has generally been highly-critical of it, from the Diamondbacks viewpoint. Rob Neyer is a good example: "All my friends seem to have this one the same: Great for Yanks, good for Tigers, terrible for Diamondbacks. My friends are usually right."
Steve Gilbert analyzes the trade on his blog, and seems to lean towards liking it, overall. "If Kennedy pans out like the D-backs think he will and Jackson gives them two good years before becoming a free agent then this will wind up being a good deal for the D-backs. Is there risk involved in giving up someone with Scherzer's ability? Absolutely and the D-backs are well aware of that... In the end you have to trust your scouts and if the D-backs feel as strongly as they do about Kennedy they have to follow that." That probably is the key: if Kennedy turns out to be a solid 3/4 starter, then the deal will be worthwhile for Arizona. Keyword there, obviously, is "if"...
Interesting info from Kennedy, who "said he had refined his two-seamer in an impressive showing in the Arizona Fall League and believed that pitch would make a major difference for him next season.." Our new pitcher said, "Before, I couldn’t command my two-seamer; it was always talking off the plate and no one would swing at it. It would be really cool to do that famous Greg Maddux thing and start it at a left-hander’s front hip. I’d love to learn that. Right now, it’s something to get guys to swing at and put the ball in play and save pitches." However, I am somewhat concerned by the fact both he and Jackson tend to profile as fly-ball pitchers.
One point worth noting is that Max Scherzer's current price is not exactly minimum league salary, even though he hasn't hit arbitration. His current deal, which runs through next year, was for $4.3m over four, plus "performance bonuses may increase value to $6m," per Cot's. This season, he's due to earn just shy of $1.5m, according to Nick P's last update - not sure whether that includes any bonus or not. Either way, it does narrow the cost somewhat between Scherzer and Jackson in 2010 - Jackson earned $2.2m for the Tigers last season, and is likely due to increase that significantly (I'd guess $4-5m?) after a good performance in 2009.
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Allow me to be the first to say:
#%@*.
"Spam headline: 'YOU ARE CHOSEN!' Oh, Morpheus, you're getting pretty lazy."
"Or they are informing you you are Jewish in a very lame conversion campaign."
"In either case, sending me spam is not the way to invite me to Zion."
I mean, I’m more than willing to be proven wrong, but I’m not pleased with this on first consideration.
"Spam headline: 'YOU ARE CHOSEN!' Oh, Morpheus, you're getting pretty lazy."
"Or they are informing you you are Jewish in a very lame conversion campaign."
"In either case, sending me spam is not the way to invite me to Zion."
I first heard about it
when Poseidon’s Fist txted me for my reaction.
“There’s not enough beer in the world”.
Dbacks return to the WS in 2010?
Hey, it could happen.
If nothing else
We’re not going to get a bobblehead with heterochromia! Dammit!
"Spam headline: 'YOU ARE CHOSEN!' Oh, Morpheus, you're getting pretty lazy."
"Or they are informing you you are Jewish in a very lame conversion campaign."
"In either case, sending me spam is not the way to invite me to Zion."
EXACTLY.
What's your name? Sandwich. What's your first name? TUNA.
by emilylovesthedbacks on Dec 8, 2009 2:18 PM EST up reply actions
I like the idea of Jackson
(and having two Jacksons in the lineup)…but why Scherzer? and why did the mothereffin Yankees have to be involved? ::sigh::
What's your name? Sandwich. What's your first name? TUNA.
by emilylovesthedbacks on Dec 8, 2009 2:13 PM EST reply actions
Because the Yankees wanted Granderson
and had extra pitching. That’s what made this deal work.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
I'm not really sure this is that big of an upgrade
I mean, yes we basically traded an injury risk number 3 and injury risk possible closer/loogey for a number 3 on a career year, along with a number 4 starter. But still, i don’t like giving up scherzer.
"When fascism comes to this country, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross" - Upton Sinclair
I don't really think this is that bad of a trade though
It’s possible this turns into a big win of a trade for us though.
"When fascism comes to this country, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross" - Upton Sinclair
Agree that it could
There are a ton of “ifs” in this trade, depending on injuries. But in the end, I feel like we traded more years of higher ceiling pitching for less money than we got back.
by Counsellmember on Dec 8, 2009 2:17 PM EST up reply actions
How exactly?
The only way this could turn out to be a big win for us is if Scherzer goes Mark Prior.
Jackson will give us two years resembling what Garland did and Kennedy, well, if every scout that ever watched Kennedy expects him to be a 4-5th starter, the chances of him turning into Scherzer have to be minimal, right?
We traded a legitimate young stud with 5 years of control AND a first round pick – future closer – to get two back of the rotation guys, one of which will be pretty expensive and one of which has no proven record in the majors.
Look, Jackson will be paid between 5 and 6 million next year, and probably close to 10 million in ‘11. For that kind of money, or a little bit more, we could have signed Garland or any number of guys to be our 4th starter. And we wouldn’t have to part with our most valuable asset.
This is going to look worse than the Quentin deal pretty soon (again, unless Max gets injured) and it proves this FO has no idea what they’re doing. None whatsoever. They never heard of FIP and xFIP, because they took one look at that 3.6 ERA and said OMFG, he’z an ACE in the AL
What. A. Mess.
You say "unless Max gets injured"
Without realizing just how distinct, if not likely, of a chance that is.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 9, 2009 3:48 AM EST up reply actions
So could Jackson
and Kennedy probably will.
Are we going to root for Max to get injured so our FO don’t look like a bunch of braindeads?
No
Of course not. I like Max. But you have to look at the facts. Scherzer had lingering shoulder problems at Mizzou and fricking TJ surgery in high school. Jackson’s had no injury history. Who do you trust for staying healthy enough to put up a productive #3 starter season next year, especially after Scherzer’s huge innings spike in 2009? Kennedy’s a risk, yeah, but do you think an aneurysm is going to be a recurring injury? That doesn’t scare me in a baseball sense as much as TJ or shoulder problems. Also, we move our risk from the #3 spot to the #4 spot, a pretty good little adjustment.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 9, 2009 3:57 AM EST up reply actions
Nobody "likes" giving up Scherzer.
It’s not like he was Ian Kennedy, who nobody in NY is going to mourn, because he’d worn out his welcome.
But, if you wanna make an omlette, (or in this case, an effective starting rotation) you’ve gotta break a few eggs.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
I mourn IPK.
I think he could have been a decent starter, certainly worth having around while he was cheap. And I’m not excited by Granderson in the slightest.
"Have faith in the Yankees, my son. Think of the great DiMaggio."
Well,
to every rule, there is an exception. :-D
Welcome to the Snakepit, by the way.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Notable about Scherzer
is the fact that the Verducci Rule predicts that he’s due for some big-time injuries this year.
2008 IP: 56 majors, 53 minors so 109
2009 IP: 170.1 major, 4.2 minors so 175
That’s a BIG JUMP in innings pitched. Add that to his already injury-prone frame and wild delivery and it almost seems like a certainty to me.
Dbacks return to the WS in 2010?
Hey, it could happen.
Hmph...
Perhaps it’s just me, but the hope of Scherzer getting hurt isn’t consolation enough. I still like the kid a lot and appreciate how he pitches. Fiery son of a gun, he is.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
All true.
But think about it minus the emotional connection we all have with Schlereth and (especially) Scherzer.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
well maybe you'll like Jackson
on his SB profile, the first word about him is “aggressive”.
I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....
BUT HE HAS DIFFERENT COLORED EYES!!!!!1111!!!!
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
I thought they fight to the death....
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Max getting hurt might be a certainty but Kennedy has a long history of being on the shelf.
At least I’ll be able to continue booing someone on the DL and it’s always fun to boo a Kennedy.
Yes, but
it’s not like we’re planning on slotting Kennedy in as our #3 starter, the way Max was. If a #5 starter or bullpen guy (Kennedy will be one of those) gets injured, it’s not a huge deal. If your #3 starter gets injured, you might be in trouble.
Dbacks return to the WS in 2010?
Hey, it could happen.
You forgot his AFL work in 2008
It’s still a jump, but not as much as the above makes it look.
"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil
True.
But the Verducci Rule is contingent on any increase of 30 IP or more.
Granted, that’s supposedly only for pitchers under 25, and Max JUST turned 25 this year, but still. It’s not like if they pitch exactly 29.2 more IP or once they turn 25 their arm is coated in carbon fiber.
Dbacks return to the WS in 2010?
Hey, it could happen.
Well...
I’m the last one to hope a pitcher (or anyone else) gets hurt, but it would make me feel much, much better about sending Mad Max to Deeetroit.
(Am I the only one that really wants to call him Mad Eye? Any other Harry Potter fans?)
What's your name? Sandwich. What's your first name? TUNA.
by emilylovesthedbacks on Dec 8, 2009 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
Good one, Emily!
Nobody on the road Nobody on the beach
I feel it in the air The summer's out of reach
by 4 Corners Fan on Dec 8, 2009 2:40 PM EST up reply actions
Do I take it you like this, at least a little?
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 2:16 PM EST up reply actions
I think i'm the only one who doesn't completely hate this trade.
"When fascism comes to this country, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross" - Upton Sinclair
I don't completely hate it either.
I’m just sad to not have Scherzer anymore.
What's your name? Sandwich. What's your first name? TUNA.
by emilylovesthedbacks on Dec 8, 2009 2:18 PM EST up reply actions
On another note,
how are the two of you both on at the same time??
Dbacks return to the WS in 2010?
Hey, it could happen.
Wesley
was using his mom’s computer.
What's your name? Sandwich. What's your first name? TUNA.
by emilylovesthedbacks on Dec 8, 2009 2:27 PM EST up reply actions
I'll admit
I’m not looking at it rationally at the moment. I’m just not happy about losing Scherzer and Schlereth. Once I get to rational fan mode, than I’ll reconsider.
"Spam headline: 'YOU ARE CHOSEN!' Oh, Morpheus, you're getting pretty lazy."
"Or they are informing you you are Jewish in a very lame conversion campaign."
"In either case, sending me spam is not the way to invite me to Zion."
I am okay with it
I just see Jackson as having a bigger ceiling than Max. Having Kennedy in the mix seems to be a better fit than Schlereth imho.
I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....
I think Max has the higher ceiling.
Plus, Jackson is more expensive.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Max might be an injury risk but Kennedy has proven to be injury prone.
Watching Lincecum one would assume his are would simply fall off but it hasn’t some guys are just freaks.
Yes, but like I said earlier,
Jackson’s going to be our #3 starter, not Kennedy.
So, our injury-prone starting pitcher got moved back to the #4 or #5 slot, rather than being our 3rd best guy.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
You have to believe
Kennedy was acquired to be our #4 right? Why would we do it if it was just to add another guy in competition for the #5…
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
Because
the question of who is the #4 and who is the #5 starter is really just academic. In that respect, we’re no worse off than we were, because it’s not as if Schlereth was going to be a starter.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Oops, didn't finish my thought.
Anyway, instead, we’re BETTER off, because we have an extra name to throw into the competition for starting slots.
Scherzer for Jackson is a straight up wash, and we didn’t trade any of the guys who were going to be our #4 or #5 starter in the first place.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
well we had two slots to fill anyway
correct?
and the guys that were in the running were Augenstein, Mulvey and Buckner and who knows who else. Now they’ve added another guy to the mix. The old, throw enough stuff at the wall and see what sticks methodology. I’m okay with that, not that Schlereth was filling a vital role, per se, in accordance with team needs.
I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....
I'm coming around to it, too.
The reason I’m confused, though, is that it’s not like Josh Byrnes to trade cost-controlled players for guys that are due for a big raise. (Jackson)
Dbacks return to the WS in 2010?
Hey, it could happen.
But I think the justification is
That that “big raise” is still less money than we’d have to pay for a #4 on the free-agent market. So, essentially, if you say Jackson-Scherzer is a wash talent-wise, we’re getting Kennedy for Schlereth and $4M, rather than a 4th somewhere else for $7.5M (what Penny got).
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 2:26 PM EST up reply actions
That's true.
That’s a good point, actually. There’s an opportunity cost here that I didn’t look at originally.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
It's why I've wanted a Jackson deal the entire time
Because it’s so much less expensive, and we get the opportunity to pick up another good bat/relief arm/both. I just wish we’d traded Snyder (paying all but $1M of his salary each season) and given more lower-level pitching prospects instead of Scherzer. The Tigers probably would have taken that, IMO.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 2:40 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think the Tigers would have taken that.
Maybe not Schlereth, but I don’t think they would have made the trade without Scherzer in the deal.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
no way...
you really think we could have gotten jackson without scherzer? jackson’s demand should be a lot higher since he’s coming off that record year…
Exactly
the reason you dont taregt a guy like that.
by Counsellmember on Dec 8, 2009 2:44 PM EST up reply actions
He's only 26.
And going from the AL to the NL, it’s not like he’s going to get significantly worse.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
They were going to deal him to the Mariners
for Brandon Morrow and Shawn Kelley and got rejected. That kind of shows you what they needed. I think they got a better package in the end than those two guys.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 2:53 PM EST up reply actions
i don't think we can say we completely hate this trade...
it’s more like trading a known quantity for an unknown quantity in my mind..
what’s the difference between getting an 8 mil FA and holding on to scherzer vs. trading for jackson and kennedy?
we definitely sacrifice long-term for short-term by swapping scherzer for jackson, but what exactly are the gains in the short-term? so the only way i see this panning out is if the amount jackson is better than scherzer outweighs the amount kennedy is worse than an 8 mil FA
The savings in money
To get another bat, and now a lefty to replace Schlereth.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 2:27 PM EST up reply actions
LOOGY, yes.
Another bat, eh…. I’m not so sure.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
I can say
I completely hate this trade.
Show me the feature where AZ has gotten better. I dont see it.
by Counsellmember on Dec 8, 2009 2:32 PM EST up reply actions
I dunno, a guy who has posted two winning seasons in the AL
versus a guy who struggled to get out of the 5th inning most nights during his time on the rubber in the NL. Don’t get me wrong, I liked Max and think with time, he could be a good pitcher, but he’s only one year younger than Jackson and Jackson should do well in the league transition. If you want to say that you think that straight up that Scherzer is better than Jackson, okay I can accept that. Doesn’t mean that I agree with it though…
I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....
The AL/NL discrepancy
Is something to note… Jackson’s FIP wasn’t great considering his ERA, but it’s the AL… He was facing much better lineups than Max’s NL West (Padres) suckfest. We get more innings, that’s for sure.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
That's another thing.
That’s where the injury factor comes in to play. Since we can assume we’re going to get more innings from EJax than we would have from Mad Max, it takes away a little bit of the load on our mediocre at best bullpen.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
xFIP, while nice, is not everything with pitchers...
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 9, 2009 3:47 AM EST up reply actions
For instance:
It overvalues strikeout guys. Also undervalues ground-ball guys (like Webb, for instance). Skins said this below, but FIP sees a guy like Scherzer who K’s a ton of guys and thinks “wow, this guy is absolutely amazing! he pitches without needing his defense to do hardly anything!” However, it mostly neglects the fact that the guy can’t get to the seventh inning to save his life because of pitch counts. This taxes the bullpen, which has a domino effect on the team.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 9, 2009 3:51 AM EST up reply actions
It doesn't overvalue strikeout guys
Strikeouts are amazing. BABIPS on strikeouts? .000
Runs driven in via strikeout = 0
And it doesn’t undervalue Webb, because it takes into account his GB tendencies.
And for the pitch count discussion, please see my comment in the ‘though process’ thread.
Why are you even arguing with me, you hate this trade too!
I've warmed to it, actually.
Maybe (I’ll admit) it’s me making myself like it, but with the fact that we got a #4 starter for a net salary gain of about $4.2M, given this market, that’s pretty good. And what I meant by that was inefficient guys who take six pitches to get a strikeout. A la Scherzer.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 9, 2009 4:01 AM EST up reply actions
....and now you sound
like one of those guys who says, “ZOMGStrikeouts!! MARK REYNOLDS IS WORTHLESS BECUZ HE STREIKS OUT TO MUCH LOLZ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11111111111”
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Age doesn't equal service time
Max has issues going deep, but this was his first full season! And he went 170+ Innings with a better FIP than Jackson who had a career year.
The AL/NL descrepency is a factor for sure, but so is Chase Field. And three extra years of control is beyond huge.
Max is the better pitcher now, next year, and four years from now. And we parted with him so we could pay more money for a worse replacement, and add Kennedy to the already full fix of #5 starters.
by Counsellmember on Dec 8, 2009 2:49 PM EST up reply actions
No,
I’m not so sure Max IS the better pitcher now. Four years from now? Maybe, but I’ll bet Jackson has a better year.
Jim — does that sound like a good front page stat for the 2010 season? Scherzer vs. Jackson?
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Absolutely, IMO.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 2:54 PM EST up reply actions
Scherzer vs Jackson
Scherzer= 3.87 FIP, career 3.73
Jackson= 4.28 FIP Career “high”, career ave = 4.72
Scherzer: 1.34 WHIP, career 1.32
Jackson: 1.26 WHIP, career 1.51(!)
Scherzer: .323 BABIP in 09
Jackson: .281 BABIP in 09
I think Scherzer is the better pitcher right now, showing sustainable peripheral stats opposed to Jackson’s career year in ’09. Certainly, I think Jackson should be a solid starter, but wise teams DONT BUY HIGH!
by Counsellmember on Dec 8, 2009 3:07 PM EST up reply actions
2009 AL: .764 OPS, OPS+ 100
2009 NL: .739 OPS, OPS+ 94
FIP is extremely overrated. I’m not a fan of it.
Scherzer’s career #‘s are totally irrelevant, since they only include a tiny bit of pitching done in 2008, before anybody had a scouting report on him, and a full-ish season in 2009. And part of why Scherzer’s BABIP is higher might have something to do with the fact that he has no idea how to effectively pitch to contact?? He’s used to striking everybody out on 3 fastballs in the minors. In the majors, unless you’re Randy Johnson, you can’t DO that. (Not even Randy Johnson)
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Agree on many points
I dont completely understand FIP, but it’s a popular tool and seems to work well on average. You are right that it does work in Max’s favor (God, Im getting sick of spelling Scerzer 50 times every hour), but that is a large descrepency between the two.
Max’s career numbers are essentially are the same as 09’s; very very good. A year’s worth of data becomes significant, and he was striking out a batter per frame at the end of the year just like at the start.
by Counsellmember on Dec 8, 2009 3:55 PM EST up reply actions
you are comparing AL numbers with NL ones
okay, Jackson in his first year with the Rays got hammered (like every other Rays pitcher). Kind of like what happened to Max when he came up in the latter half of 07. When the Rays made their leap, Jackson did too. I would expect Jackson’s numbers to be higher in the AL because he’s facing more legitimate hitters every time he takes the mound.
I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....
AL vs NL
Yes, there is a difference here. There is also a difference in Chase Field (second best hitters park in 09) vs Comerica (13th best).
There is also a difference between AL Central and AL East. And, granted, the NL West to others.
I agree that Jackson should have an easier time in the NL, but how much better can he be? Not enough to justify 3 fewer years of team control in my opinion.
by Counsellmember on Dec 8, 2009 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
Hmmm.....
AL Central in 2009:
ChiSox, OPS+ of 91
Indians, OPS+ of 103
Royals, OPS+ of 91
Twins, OPS+ of 103
NL West in 2009:
Rockies, OPS+ of 98
Dodgers, OPS+ of 104
Padres, OPS+ of 96
Giants, OPS+ of 81
I’m not sure whether or not that’s league adjusted, but it’s possible that we’re reading too much into the NL-AL difference.
Although Danny Haren DID post the two best ERA+’s of his career after he moved to AZ. (Even pitching at Chase)
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
I think you're right
AL/NL differences exist, but we may rely on them too heavily. Same with park factor and all that.
A good pitcher will pitch good (like a well pitcher).
Garland was much the same I think.
by Counsellmember on Dec 8, 2009 4:24 PM EST up reply actions
Scherzer is also
automatically going to be rewarded by FIP for being a strikeout pitcher — much like how Brandon Webb always gets docked for being a groundballer.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Buying high
Is relative. They needed to shed payroll, so the value they got for Jackson wasn’t equal to his actual free-market value.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 3:32 PM EST up reply actions
really and who is #4?
I don’t get how Max is the better pitcher now…. his first full season, and Jackson is on year three with a lots of cups of coffee preceding that. jackson has progressed well, who’s to say that he’s reached his ceiling? His walks are trending down and his K’s are up. Now he’s gonna get to feast on NL lineups. Max, who had problems pitching to contact is going to a league with more hitters. maybe he’ll develop, I hope he does, he’s a good guy, but there are no guarantees and he’s going to a tougher environment.
I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....
More hitters, and a smaller strike zone.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Starter #4 is what we got
This was definately a trade to get that fourth starter in Kennedy.
But the downgrade from Scherzer to Jackson in my opinion is huge in terms of talent, service time and money.
Jackson started in the NL and didnt blow away the compeition. All his peripheral numbers are not as good as Max’s, and those are more telling than his singular 09 season. Even if he duplicated 09, he’s still not as good.
by Counsellmember on Dec 8, 2009 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
Why do you keep saying
Jackson is such a downgrade?
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
I believe he is
So do most of the experts out there.
I’m not saying Jackson is useless. I’m excited to have him on the team, but I think the cost of Scherzer is a net loss.
by Counsellmember on Dec 8, 2009 4:26 PM EST up reply actions
Look at 09 stats
Jackson was better than Max in almost all meaningful categories, a lot better in some.
Bring back the Baltimore Chop!
List them for me
Then list Jackson’s career numbers in those same categories.
by Counsellmember on Dec 8, 2009 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
Sorry man
I can’t go 4 years into the future for that to be a valid comparison.
Bring back the Baltimore Chop!
?
Go back four years and list his career numbers. The career that has already happened that has resulted in his third trade.
by Counsellmember on Dec 8, 2009 4:32 PM EST up reply actions
Less relevant.
Jackson’s only a year older, but has been in the majors for much longer. Without checking, (since I’m lazy) I think he was drafted out of HS.
However, dima does have a point. Based solely on 2009 numbers, Jackson had more wins, fewer losses, a better ERA, more starts, more IP, fewer total runs given up, hit fewer batters, faced more batters, had a lower WHIP, gave up fewer hits per 9 IP, and gave up fewer walks per 9 IP.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Based soley on 09
Wolf had a better season than both. Who would you rather have on your team taking control and price into account?
Everyone here has a point; this is not an exact science. And although I agree that Jackson should do well going forward, I feel we paid too much for a career year. Feels like we let the market play us, rather than the other way around.
by Counsellmember on Dec 8, 2009 5:15 PM EST up reply actions
Jackson and Scherzer
are also quite a bit younger than Randy Wolf.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
And Wolf
Is going to cost $10 per year.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 5:25 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah
That seems like a whole separate “WTF?” to me.
"Spam headline: 'YOU ARE CHOSEN!' Oh, Morpheus, you're getting pretty lazy."
"Or they are informing you you are Jewish in a very lame conversion campaign."
"In either case, sending me spam is not the way to invite me to Zion."
Sorry Skins,IHSB,Dima,others
I’m trying not to sound ornery, even though I canbarely keep up with the responses. I am actually looking forward to what the new guys could do. We have a more complete rotation than we did at the beginning of the day.
But you guys can’t ignore that a lot of experts out there see this trade as downright irresponsible. I can see what the FO is trying to do here in finding an alternative path to building the starting 4, but there are SO many ways to go about the job. And we have nothing but time to let the market develop.
My biggest complaint is that in today’s system the value of a cost controlled young pitcher is immense. We gutted the system getting Haren, and I thought it was worth it at the time. The guy was an Ace, had proved himself in the AL over multiple seasons, and had the peripheral stats to back up his numbers. Jackson doesn’t have those requisites.
Injury is a concern, as it is for all pitchers. But I think the ball was dropped here on Max’s percieved value. His potential based on last season is very high, and you have that potential for 5 more years with no rush to sell. Jackson’s value was riding the best year of his career but only has another 2 years to capitalize on that value. And he was being shopped from Day 1 with a passion (for the third time in his short career).
Kennedy meanwhile has had his stock inflated for three years by Yankee management dropping his name into every trade rumor and then pulling it out again. Masterful work on their part, increasing the value of every guy to come through their system.
And I really hate to see Schereth go. He had an awful time in the Bigs, but I was excited for him to get a fresh start this year.
I hope it works out, only time will tell.
by Counsellmember on Dec 8, 2009 6:23 PM EST up reply actions
If he duplicates '09 pitching in the NL
He’s in contention to be an All-Star. Like, super-way-easily in contention. His ERA is right around 3 if he can do that.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 3:34 PM EST up reply actions
Moving to the NL?
Especially the NL West? He’s just as young as Scherzer. For those of you hoping he developed, why can we not hope the same for Jackson? He may not duplicate it, but he’ll be close.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 9, 2009 3:46 AM EST up reply actions
Hahaha
Fair enough. dstritt08 although I’m rarely on.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 9, 2009 4:01 AM EST up reply actions
Blasphemous
My profile pic is awesome haha.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 9, 2009 8:13 AM EST up reply actions
Exactly
a guy who struggled to get out of the 5th inning most nights
I just could never get too excited about Scherzer, because I knew a start by him meant that the bullpen (ugh) was most likely going to see a LOT of innings. That’s really the guy everyone is so heartbroken over? I just don’t get it.
by azshadowwalker on Dec 9, 2009 2:08 AM EST up reply actions
If the guy made it through seven
The announcers were instantly swooning and raving about his great night. He had six starts all season in which he lasted seven innings or more. How many of Jackson’s starts were seven innings or more? That would be seventeen. That in itself makes this an instant upgrade, as it will allow our ’pen a much-needed lightened workload.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 9, 2009 2:51 AM EST up reply actions
To throw out the full story:
Jackson was 17/33 on starts that went 7+ innings out of total starts (>51.5%). Scherzer was 6/30 on starts that went 7+ innings out of total starts (20%)
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 9, 2009 2:55 AM EST up reply actions
Valid point. One sec...
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 9, 2009 3:19 AM EST up reply actions
Ok, here goes
Max pitched 5.7 innings per start. Jackson pitched 6.5 innings per start.
NL: Starters pitched a combined 15067.2 innings this year in 2590 games started (16 NL teams times 162 games, minus one each for the Pirates and Cubs, who each apparently played 161…). This gives an NL average of 5.82 innings per start.
AL: Starters pitched a combined 13190.2 innings this year in 2269 games (14 NL teams times 162 games, with no anomalies). This gives an AL average of 5.82 innings per start (I shit you not…).
So Max’s 5.7 innings per start is a .98 ratio, and Jackson’s 6.5 innings per start is a 1.17 ratio. Or, since the average innings per start is exactly the same (who would have thunk it, right?), we can compare apples to apples here. Jackson’s 6.5 innings per start w.r.t. Scherzer’s 5.7 gives us a ratio of 1.14 innings per Jackson start to innings per Scherzer start.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 9, 2009 3:43 AM EST up reply actions
Jackson's 6.5 innings per start
Is actually a 1.12 ratio. Just for correctness’ sake.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 9, 2009 3:44 AM EST up reply actions
I wouldn't necessarily say I "like" this.
But I’m feeling a little better about it now than I did originally.
Dbacks return to the WS in 2010?
Hey, it could happen.
+1
I worried about that going into next year, hence why i said trading an injury risk of a number 3 starter, and an injury risk closer/loogy for a 3 starter that’s less injury prone and an injury prone possible #4 starter.
"When fascism comes to this country, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross" - Upton Sinclair
Wow.....
somebody here just TOTALLY copied and pasted my comment to that FanGraphs article.
Awesome. :-P
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Is that a compliment?
Other than outright stealing, I mean.
Nobody on the road Nobody on the beach
I feel it in the air The summer's out of reach
by 4 Corners Fan on Dec 8, 2009 4:20 PM EST up reply actions
I think so?
Copying is the highest form of flattery, and frankly, whoever did it, I’m flattered.
::bows::
The other posters are ripping that guy (or me, indirectly) apart for using the term “Verducci Rule” rather than “Verducci Effect” or something more vague.
Fine. Semantics. Whatever you call it, it’s a demonstrable pattern among many young pitchers.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
This does, however
Make it so we need a LHP in our bullpen. We were set with Schlereth and Zavadastache, but who is out there we can get now?
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
Zavadastache
isn’t really a LOOGY, though. Pretend he’s a right-hander.
Dbacks return to the WS in 2010?
Hey, it could happen.
Precisely
It’s what worries me… This now confuses me on why we gave up Scott Maine. He was completely unnecessary when we had Schlereth above him. Now, a LOOGY, although a commonly-found commodity, would be nice to have a cheap price from the minors.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 2:28 PM EST up reply actions
Too expansive
And not a LOOGY.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 2:28 PM EST up reply actions
Expansive?
Like the universe? ;-)
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Universe
That would be collapsing…like our team. :)
by Counsellmember on Dec 8, 2009 2:50 PM EST up reply actions
Woops. :-P
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 2:54 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, exactly
Is Bobby Seay still w/Detroit? If so they have him, and Ni, and Schlereth. That’s a lot o’ lefties. If he’s not, well, Arizona! There’s your LOOGY?
Brian Shouse is out there too, but he’s a type B and is old.
Type B isn't an issue
That pick gets conjured out of nothingness between the first and second rounds. It’s Type A that requires a pick to be given up.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 5:34 PM EST up reply actions
We gave up a lot of talent today
and will spend more money for that honor. If Kennedy and Jackson reach their ceilings I think this is a great trade, but pitcher’s reaching their ceilings in something you hope for and plan against, not the opposite.
Talent doesn't win games.
Players win games. Good talent =/= good player.
And as IHSB pointed out, we saved money over what we would have had to spend to pick up a free agent pitcher.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
i hate the yankees
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-big-trade/
ya that doesnt look to good now…
I don't think
it’s NEARLY as bad a trade as that makes it out to be, although I do respect Dave Cameron’s writings.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
can't believe they traded Scherzer...
Did you hear Eric Byrnes is writing a book?
It's going to be a pop-up book.
Well...
My heart says bleh, and my brain says meh. Rationally I think we may come out on top in this deal, but there are certainly a number of scenarios where we do not.
maybe the team already figures it has it's LOOGY already
a check of the 40 man shows that we have Blackley and Septimo on it. Maybe the FO figures it has the guy already on the team that is ready to step into that spot. As others have reminded me on the FA thread, sometimes it’s cheaper to build from within with what you already have.
I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....
Well Blackley is worrisome
As he’s old, and not very good (although admittedly his bullpen numbers were a lot better than his starter ones), and Septimo crumbled at Mobile last year. I could see Blackley I suppose… I suddenly want to recant on everything I said about Scott Maine being expendable from the Heilman deal… He could probably LOOGY in ’10 given his arm slot.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
yeah
but he is now a couple years removed from the shoulder surgery and his BP numbers are indeed better than the SP numbers. I can see it being open audition time for the slot, it’s just that the knee jerk reaction is to simply buy, buy, buy and maybe the team is looking beyond that for things like signability and such.
I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....
Blackley sucks.
But I don’t doubt that Septimo could be a credible major league LOOGY.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Ehhhhhhh...
I’d like to develop him as a middle-relief guy given his stuff… He probably COULD, but it would really limit his development, wouldn’t you think?
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
everything is okay now...i take back any negative comments i made previously...
i heard from a credible source, that kennedy is going to come second place in cy young votes next year (second only to brandon webb of course)
so i think we’re good to go on this trade
What?
So, Haren’s third?
"Spam headline: 'YOU ARE CHOSEN!' Oh, Morpheus, you're getting pretty lazy."
"Or they are informing you you are Jewish in a very lame conversion campaign."
"In either case, sending me spam is not the way to invite me to Zion."
False.
Nobody but Timcecum will ever win the NL Cy Young. (Until he retires, dies, or gets thrown in jail for more drugs)
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
I choose
option two, but that’s just because I’m a bad person.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
no no no no no no nooooooooooooooooo!
not Scherzer! NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
"Have a take and do not suck or you will get run." - Jim Rome
hmmmm
i will say this though…doesn’t the fact that so many ppl in the media think this is a bad trade for us make you less worried?
doesn’t that imply that there MUST be something that the rest of us don’t know about that the FO does?
I really do think
there’s something the FO learned about Scherzer.
Sorta like when the insurance companies refused to back Webby’s deal.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
It's true
An anonymous source in the DBacks organization told me that Josh Byrnes was outraged to learn that Scherzer didn’t like pineapple on pizza. Dammit, that is not what this franchise is about!
"Spam headline: 'YOU ARE CHOSEN!' Oh, Morpheus, you're getting pretty lazy."
"Or they are informing you you are Jewish in a very lame conversion campaign."
"In either case, sending me spam is not the way to invite me to Zion."
Seriously?
That makes me wonder why they even signed him to begin with.
Nobody on the road Nobody on the beach
I feel it in the air The summer's out of reach
by 4 Corners Fan on Dec 8, 2009 4:48 PM EST up reply actions
I disagree with pineapple on pizza, too.
That, my friend, is a heresy.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
We will not be purchasing pizza together
at the next SnakePitFestFunabration, ’Skins.
Nobody on the road Nobody on the beach
I feel it in the air The summer's out of reach
by 4 Corners Fan on Dec 8, 2009 5:16 PM EST up reply actions
But we're still friends, right? :-)
Nobody on the road Nobody on the beach
I feel it in the air The summer's out of reach
by 4 Corners Fan on Dec 8, 2009 5:22 PM EST up reply actions
Of course.
We just can’t share pizza orders.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
And that
Is exactly why AJ Hinch got hired instead of ’Skins for the manager job.
"Spam headline: 'YOU ARE CHOSEN!' Oh, Morpheus, you're getting pretty lazy."
"Or they are informing you you are Jewish in a very lame conversion campaign."
"In either case, sending me spam is not the way to invite me to Zion."
"Organizational advocacy".
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Yeah
It’s a code-phrase for “Josh Byrnes is a jerk when it comes to pizza orders.”
"Spam headline: 'YOU ARE CHOSEN!' Oh, Morpheus, you're getting pretty lazy."
"Or they are informing you you are Jewish in a very lame conversion campaign."
"In either case, sending me spam is not the way to invite me to Zion."
Well
it might help JByrnes save his job.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Then...
I’m firmly against it. J/K…but not really.
by azshadowwalker on Dec 9, 2009 2:12 AM EST up reply actions
Slightly OT,
but does anyone know who Jackson’s agent is?
Because we all knew that Boras/Scherzer weren’t going to re-sign with us. With Jackson, we might be able to sign an extension.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
good point
Did you hear Eric Byrnes is writing a book?
It's going to be a pop-up book.
by Muu on Dec 8, 2009 2:56 PM EST up reply actions
that's true
i feel like JB said he wanted to sign a long-term contract for pitching this offseason, so we might see that get done with jackson
A good point...
Also why we may see Drew sent out next winter.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 3:27 PM EST up reply actions
It is strange that the FO always mentions Drew as the core of players we’re building around. I always wonder about that. Are we just trying to build up his trade value? Whether or not Drew performs well, I have a hard time believing he’ll be here long-term.
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8
Agreed.... I've wondered about that, too.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
By the time Jackson reaches free agency
Shouldn’t Jarrod Parker be back, healthy, and ready? Just a thought…
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
In theory, yes.
Of course, Webby may be gone by then.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Well
Something tells me that if Webb performs for the first half of the season and stays healthy, we’d sign him to a two-or-three-year extension of some sort. We showed him loyalty by picking up his option, and I think he appreciates it. We could have a chance to lock him up.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 3:26 PM EST up reply actions
I’d sure love to see that. I worry about whether or not the FO has any real plan to try to retain guys like Webb and Upton, though. It seems more to me like they move from year to year trying to patch things together and stockpile youngsters.
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8
Agreed
I think this team is using the Pirates as a template. Draft ‘em, play ’em till their good, then let ’em go because they’re “too expensive.” How long till they have to stop using Colangelo’s spending spree as an excuse? When does it become apparent that management is quite happy running a perennial AAA team?
by azshadowwalker on Dec 9, 2009 2:17 AM EST up reply actions
You mean...
Except Upton, CY, Reynolds, Montero, Webb, Haren, and Qualls right? I only neglect Drew because he’s a candidate to be moved next summer if Ciriaco is ready, but only if Ciriaco is ready.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 9, 2009 2:57 AM EST up reply actions
How long till they have to stop using Colangelo's spending spree as an excuse?
Howzabout when they’re no longer in debt?
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Webb's gone
He’s pissed they picked up his option, which was a solid invetstment by the Diamondbacks. Loyalty had nothing to do with it.
If the FO is the focus of anything, something is seriously wrong with the picture ! - unnamedDBacksfan 2/20/09
I thought
He wanted us to pick up the option… Am I totally off-base?
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 8:02 PM EST up reply actions
Brandon lost a great deal of money
when that extension was pulled by the Diamondbacks. Not pulled by the insurers. The Diamondbacks, led by Jeff Moorad. Webb’s never been paid what he’s worth and has never had structural arm damage. If you dont believe me, look at his second half record in 2008, well after Moorad’s ‘red flags’ ominously oozed into the public domain.
Webb’s physically OK. He feels he got screwed in 2008, and returned the favor in 2009 with a bunch of vague, 11th hour declarations that he didnt “feel good” – in hopes the financially strapped Dbacks would decline his option.
No such luck.
The encouraging news is that, at this point, it’s clearly in his perceived interests to pitch well again.
If the FO is the focus of anything, something is seriously wrong with the picture ! - unnamedDBacksfan 2/20/09
Nobody said ANYTHING about "red flags"
until during the 2009 season. The story broke in April, NOT during the 2008 season.
I quote:
The Diamondbacks pulled their offer of a three-year, $54 million contract extension to ace Brandon Webb last June after insurance companies expressed concerns about the right-hander’s arm, according to a Foxsports.com report.
(emphasis added)
Given the fact that Brandon missed all but one game of the 2009 season, it sounds like those concerns were well founded.
And given that Webby visited Dr. James Andrews last December, it certainly SEEMS as though he knew full well that something might be wrong.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Nobody said anything
publicly about red flags until 2009, so my timeline was incorrect. Good catch.
But it doesnt change the fact Webb would have been informed of the ‘flags’ in June 2008 when the extension offer was pulled, and that he pitched magnificently after that for three months, on his way to a 22 win season.
He finallly saw Dr Andrews because Dr Andrews is the world’s foremost authority, Webb felt OK, and the Diamondbacks werent giving him any money! Dr Andrews confirmed there’s nothing unusually alarming about his arm. Read the article.
insurance companies expressed concerns
So what? (emphasis mine). That’s what insurance companies do, when underwriting a policy on anything more precious than a sea monkey :-)
If the FO is the focus of anything, something is seriously wrong with the picture ! - unnamedDBacksfan 2/20/09
by Diamondhacks on Dec 8, 2009 10:23 PM EST up reply actions
Read the article yourself.
It was more than just the insurance companies “expressing concerns”. Something spooked them, and they wouldn’t guarantee Webb’s potential contract extension. In retrospect, they were right. Coincidence? Perhaps. Presumably, they went ahead and insured the extension for Haren, and of the two pitchers, Webby was the one who ended up missing virtually the whole season.
And you don’t go to visit Dr. James Andrews just to get a physical. You only go when there’s something wrong, and whether Dr. Andrews gave him the green light or not, something WAS wrong, as we now know in retrospect.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Oh yeah, I'm sure lots of people
Have surgeries when they’re perfectly fit. Oh wait, are you trying to tell me that he never had that surgery? It was all a scam? He tricked Josh Byrnes, Bob Melvin, A.J. Hinch, Derrick Hall, and everyone else in the Diamondbacks organization?
I’m no professional on the accuracies of what goes on when players are injured, as I believe you aren’t as well, but I’d imagine that there’s a lot of inspection, paperwork, and examination that goes into it. I’d be hard-pressed to believe anything otherwise.
It sure is fun to spread rumors though isn’t it?
Wear your own fur.
Yeah. Webby's just lazy.
He decided he didn’t want to play for the Dbacks last year, so he faked a labrum injury — a very serious and potentially career-ending injury for a pitcher.
Now THAT’S a good way to bring home the bacon when your contract is up.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Never said Webb was lazy
Never said he faked a labrum injury either. I think the world of Brandon Webb.
I laughed when you said the insurers were spooked. Jeff Moorad was spooked at the prospect of Brandon Webb being signed long term by his the Arizona Diamondbacks.
If the FO is the focus of anything, something is seriously wrong with the picture ! - unnamedDBacksfan 2/20/09
by Diamondhacks on Dec 8, 2009 11:31 PM EST up reply actions
Oh, 'Skins
Tinfoil hat? That’s just what the man wants you to wear.
"Spam headline: 'YOU ARE CHOSEN!' Oh, Morpheus, you're getting pretty lazy."
"Or they are informing you you are Jewish in a very lame conversion campaign."
"In either case, sending me spam is not the way to invite me to Zion."
Hmmm....
seen any black helicopters lately while piloting the zeppelin, Devin?
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Oh yeah, I’m sure lots of people have surgeries when they’re perfectly fit.
They do….vanity and other unnecessary surgeries comprise an industry that dwarfs our beloved MLB. But I digress….
Webb had a debridement. Cleaned out some junk. Some specialists thought he didnt need it, others thought it was a good idea. Webb elected to have it. Very low risk.
I dont doubt that Webb felt some tightness, soreness or whatever and am not sure that’s particularly unusual for a pitcher of his workload. That’s why, for example, pitchers dont pitch every day. It hurts! But whatever it was that “spooked” Aetna’s Arms R Us division, apparently didnt affect BW in 2008. You cant fake going 9-3 with a 3.39 ERA. You cant be all uninsurable and pretend to be the second best pitcher in the league.
The converse is not true. You can fake, or perhaps “rationalize” is a gentler word for you upset nonbelievers, being “unable to pitch.” There’s a host of reasons why Webb would be extra cautious, almost reluctant, to pitch in 2009, beyond his generally accepted claim that his arm ‘felt funny’.
If the FO is the focus of anything, something is seriously wrong with the picture ! - unnamedDBacksfan 2/20/09
by Diamondhacks on Dec 8, 2009 11:04 PM EST up reply actions
So you're basically saying
that Webb dogged it all season? He “rationalized” a season ending injury just to get out of his option?
Nobody on the road Nobody on the beach
I feel it in the air The summer's out of reach
by 4 Corners Fan on Dec 9, 2009 10:38 AM EST up reply actions
Oh yeah that extension thing - of course
He’s mad he didn’t get his money, but that’s A) understandable because of the insurance companies’ concerns and the D-Backs’ general budget constraints and B) Moorad anyways, as you noted. Even if this all is true, or at least what hasn’t already been proven untrue, there’s no reason for his surgery, no reason for him to miss so much time, and no reason for Andrews, the “world’s foremost authority” to operate on him without feeling it was necessary.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 10:31 PM EST up reply actions
Andrews
didnt operate on Webb and I didnt say there was “no reason” for his surgery. I said it was elective. He had a frayed (not torn) labrum. I have a frayed labrum and in a few years you probably will too :-)
If the FO is the focus of anything, something is seriously wrong with the picture ! - unnamedDBacksfan 2/20/09
by Diamondhacks on Dec 8, 2009 11:18 PM EST up reply actions
But
we’re not major league pitchers….
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Most high IP 30 year old pitchers
have some fraying of the labrum.
If the FO is the focus of anything, something is seriously wrong with the picture ! - unnamedDBacksfan 2/20/09
by Diamondhacks on Dec 8, 2009 11:37 PM EST up reply actions
Not trying to be argumentative here.
I’m honestly wondering where you got that.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Didnt you know?
IM’A JUST TALKIN’ OUTTA MY ASS!!!!!
The second type of labrum tear is tearing within the substance of the labrum itself. The edge of the labrum over time may get frayed so that the edge is not smooth. This type of tearing is quite common and rarely causes symptoms. It is seen frequently in the shoulder as people get more mature (over forty years of age).
Who knew hoyas required this much handholding ;-)
If the FO is the focus of anything, something is seriously wrong with the picture ! - unnamedDBacksfan 2/20/09
by Diamondhacks on Dec 9, 2009 12:55 AM EST up reply actions
I'm sorry...
I dont follow Pirate medical advice, without some sort of a link.
If the FO is the focus of anything, something is seriously wrong with the picture ! - unnamedDBacksfan 2/20/09
You said you're "talking out of your ass",
so he responded with….. oh, nvm.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
This makes it seem like
It can cause symptoms, although not in all cases. Perhaps would it make sense that Webb’s case caused him his stiffness and soreness? Not at all an impossibility.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 9, 2009 3:00 AM EST up reply actions
Could be
Like any pitcher, Webb has a finite number of bullets, but he also has issues that arent physical. He has to decide what actions are in his best interests, and I think last year he decided it wasnt in his best interests to pitch.
It certainly wasnt in his financial interests to put more wear on his arm when he’s guaranteed money and would likely make even more dough if the Dbacks declined his option. I dont think that makes him a faker, or lazy or a bad guy. Even sitting out last year, he’s still been an incredible bargain for the Diamondbacks, by dint of his talent and hard work. He owes them absolutely nothing.
I imagine if the Dbacks had given him a reasonable extension, he would’ve been out there busting his rear trying to win games. But instead they took their chances and chose to grossly underpay one of the game’s most durable, successful pitchers. Under the implied guise he’s ‘uninsurable’.
If I was him, I wouldnt have pitched either. And I wouldnt have been as cordial about it.
If the FO is the focus of anything, something is seriously wrong with the picture ! - unnamedDBacksfan 2/20/09
NVM my earlier question
This answers it. He had a season-long snit.
Nobody on the road Nobody on the beach
I feel it in the air The summer's out of reach
by 4 Corners Fan on Dec 9, 2009 10:40 AM EST up reply actions
is this just you talking out of your ass
or do you have a link to back up that statement where Webb says this in an interview?
I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....
Says what?
That he wanted out, leading to allegations of sandbagging?
If the FO is the focus of anything, something is seriously wrong with the picture ! - unnamedDBacksfan 2/20/09
With Webb, Haren, and Jackson
the dbacks have one of the best rotations in the West next year, by far.
BUT WE DIDNT RESIGN RANDY JONSON LOLZ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1111111111111111
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
WE DIDN'T!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?
that’s it. i’m burning my jerseys and flags
Bring back the Baltimore Chop!
BRING BACK JERY CLANGELO LOLZ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11111111111111111111
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Just make sure to take the jersey off first. Important safety tip.
"I can just see it: Post 'Intervention? Why would I need an intervention?' And then he'd +1 himself."
Unless
you’re a Buddhist monk.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
+1
True fact – he didn’t even feel it. For the longest time I thought he was just being awesome and being still through his pain. Perhaps this is because I’m a gullible moron, but that’s besides the point. Crazy.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 9, 2009 3:01 AM EST up reply actions
I REALLY like this deal
As much as we all want Scherzer to be the next incarnation of RJ, he’s yet to prove he can be a consistent winner. He’s got all the tools, yes, but losing your first ump-teen starts in a row like he did tends to throw up a red flag in my book. Yeah he got bad breaks, yeah the offense surely didn’t help much, but that’s too many coincidences in a row to not at least raise an eyebrow. Dude could be great, but it’s also not a secret that he’s got all the makings of a Rich Harden type.
I’m sad to see Schlereth go, as he may not have had the greatest debut, but I think he was a safer bet to be a solid bullpen guy down the road.
Edwin Jackson shouldn’t lose a stride in the NL. The jump from the AL to the NL in terms of hitting is actually pretty dramatic (sadly moreso than us NL fans would like) and even with a bump down from last year’s performace his numbers could be even better this year.
Ian Kennedy’s jettison from NY might actually give him a chance to breathe and develop from the top prospect into major league star the Yankees always thought he would be.
This is a win in all fronts in my book. However, feel free to call me a fool when Scherzer wins the CY in three years.
COULD be a win.
COULD be. There are a lot of uncertainties here.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
True.
But that’s the nature of every trade. It’s easier to just assume that every bit of analysis comes with a grain of salt then having to explicitly state it every time one makes a prediction regarding a trade outcome. I guess I did maybe sound a bit too set-in-stone matter-of-fact-ish, but maybe that’s just because I honestly think the D’backs will come out winning in this deal.
True.
It really depends on Max’s year, IMO.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
That's really what this deal hinges on.
Because he’s the one with the highest upside. He could end up being phenominal and coming back to haunt us. But I’ve always been of the opinion that Max was destined for a) the bullpen or b) the surgeon’s table. He won’t be an innings eater and he only throws two pitches (two rather good pitches).
He’d be a damn good closer in my opinion. But as long as they keep trotting him out there every fifth day they could be taking years off his career. AND if he does up in the bullpen, we just traded two relievers for two major league starters. THAT in itself is worth it.
True.
There’s no question that Jackson is a starting pitcher. Kennedy and Scherzer could go either way, although I think long-term I like Kennedy’s odds of starting better than Max’s.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Which kind of makes me sad
Because I wish our guys had used Scherzer to lock down the bullpen over the last two years. Yeah we had starters issues, but most of us around here cringe when the end of the game rolls around. Scherzer has lock-down stuff, without a doubt, and almost every question he’s had so far involves issues that would be non-factors in a closer role.
I’ve had a sneaking suspicion that Boras has been both in his and the D’Backs ears these last few years pushing him as a starter, because that’s where the money’s at. The ELITE closers make 10 mil. Brad Penny just made 7.5 mil coming off 3/4 of an absolutely dreadful season.
Scherzer is designed to be a closer. But Boras doesn’t get paid then does he?
I disagree.
Starting pitchers are MUCH more valuable than lockdown closers.
Interesting Boras theory, though.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
I can't say I like this deal or not
Only because I haven’t looked at the quality of the two we are getting in return. But I know what we have in Scherzer. As the poster above me said, Scherzer was VERY inconsistent this year. Though still young, I am not completely in anger about this trade on the Scherzer side. I mean, we did get two pitchers for one. I’ll have to go more in depth on the players we received, but so far, I’m not as angered as many of you..yet.
Just kidding I didn't realize Schlereth was part of the deal.
In any case.. I’m still open minded about it.
Well, that's understandable.
It’s easy to forget Schlereth is technically a “pitcher”. He’s really more like “a left-handed guy on the team who can throw the ball vaguely in the direction of the strike zone”.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Don't ALL LHPs
seem to have control problems?
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
No
Not Rick Ankiel. Oh, wait…
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 5:37 PM EST up reply actions
and what about Kennedy? I'd like to read some thougts
Did you hear Eric Byrnes is writing a book?
It's going to be a pop-up book.
Right Now
It looks like this trade, was trading potential (Schlereth) and someone who has to learn to control pitch counts, for an Innings eater, and someone who could not pitch in New York (wouldn’t be the first one).. Right now it looks like the Dbacks may have got the better end of this, however, I think Scherzer and Schlereth will be better long term. But this does fill one hole relatively inexpensively, and as JB has stated, this frees up money to improve the team elsewhere. This may be a domino that had to fall to get other dominoes. That’s one we’ll have to wait and see on.
Professional Lurker... if you see this, there may be a problem..
Edwin Jackson
is NOT an innings-eater. He could easily be a #2 starter on some teams, even #1 on some others.
Bring back the Baltimore Chop!
Regardless,
I don’t think the Dbacks “got the better end of this”. I think the Yankees got the best end of any of the three teams, and as the Dbacks and Detroit go, we’ll have to wait and see.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
I'm starting to warm to this deal
Although it might be me forcing myself to. Who knows.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
Yeah, this is sorta where I am, too.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
HAHAHA
Totally off-topic, but great tagline (is this the right word? I am totally blanking on this).
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
Ditto
Give it 24 hours, and we’ll see how I feel. Give it a month, and we’ll see.
At least we don’t have Scherzer in Yankee pinstripes.
"Spam headline: 'YOU ARE CHOSEN!' Oh, Morpheus, you're getting pretty lazy."
"Or they are informing you you are Jewish in a very lame conversion campaign."
"In either case, sending me spam is not the way to invite me to Zion."
have family in DET
so I can still be a fan
Indianapolis Colts, taking focus away from my DBacks every Sunday.
Not really.
The Yankees got the best deal of anyone, I think.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Absolutely agreed.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 5:24 PM EST up reply actions
I like Detroit's haul
Sell high on Jackson. Granderson has documented flaws. Get a lot of cost certainty with high upside.
by Counsellmember on Dec 8, 2009 5:27 PM EST up reply actions
And low downside...
Let’s not forget that Schlereth and Scherzer could BOTH blow out within a season or two, and Scherzer could end up in the ’pen by the end of this year.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 5:35 PM EST up reply actions
Bleh!
I really don’t like this trade. Skill wise and upside wise, I think Scherzer for Jackson is a virtual lock, with Scherzer perhaps having the upper hand. Schlereth for Kennedy looks okay on paper, but Kennedy’s got huge questions marks relating to his health, mental toughness, and ability to pitch at the MLB level. And to boot, we have to pick up the tab on Jackson and lose him several years before we would have lost Scherzer.
To me, the only reason we do this deal is that the FO LOVES Kennedy. Now, perhaps our scouts saw something there that others haven’t seen, but I’m a little skeptical. In the end, this deal with ride on Kennedy. He now must not only be a passable #5, but a quality #4 who eventually becomes an exceptional #3 or average #2.
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8
Doesn't Schlereth
Have the EXACT same question marks as Kennedy? Violent arm action could lead to injuries, can’t control pitches, and has had no major-league success? Kennedy is a starter, so that instantly gives him a higher ceiling than Schlereth.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 3:36 PM EST up reply actions
Sure, Schlereth has the same question marks, but the difference in years of control and dollars spent b/w Scherzer and Jackson is such that I think there needs to be a pretty big jump in ceilings b/w the other two players to call it a win for us.
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8
There is...
Kennedy is a #3/#4 starter ceiling, Schlereth is a closer ceiling. #3/#4 starters have immensely more value than closers. It’s why we didn’t move Scherzer to the ’pen (I absolutely switched my stance on this argument after looking at the discrepancy is WAR value between the two positions).
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 3:43 PM EST up reply actions
I don't really know
that anyone is calling this “a win for us”. Maybe a slight win.
I think that at best, it’s probably a wash.
Actually, scratch that. If Scherzer has to get Tommy John surgery, then this is a win for us.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
on paper
this trade seems terrible, but if we make the playoffs this season and win 90 games all will be forgotton
Isn't that
always the way, though?
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Let me add some fuel to this fire
1. There is absolutely NO guarantee Max is gonna be better than Jackson. Jackson is durable (at least 30 starts last 3 years), he had a better year last year in a MUCH more difficult league and division (every team in the AL Central can hit; you definitely can’t say that about the NL West). If you judge just by their prior careers, Jackson is an upgrade in every way.
2. Max has major control problems that seem to span deeper than just lack of experience. He can never seem to get the big out, always tries to strike people out, always nibbles when he gets 2 strikes on the guy, and so on. The whole “fiery fired up fireballer” garbage is useless at the major league level, he needs to go out there and execute the game plan instead of trying to blow everyone’s doors off.
4. The money issue is simply not there. Yes, Jackson is more expensive now, but they are both Boras clients, so they will most likely be getting roughly the same money in the end. And like someone said earlier, it’s a #3-for-#3 trade, and if your #3 starter goes down (which seems almost a certainty with Max), he can be very hard (and expensive) to replace. If the Dbacks are in the race, and Max went down mid-season with arm issues, they would likely go to the pre-deadline market to get someone to take the spot. The injury risk with Jackson is much less likely.
5. Jackson is actually a bullpen upgrade. He pitched 212 innings last year to Max’s 170. The knock on Max has always been that he can never get past the 6th inning, which gave more work to the bullpen than we would like. Plus it’s not like Jackson is an “innings eater”, he is a very legitimate #3. His numbers were better than Davis’ numbers in 09, and Davis was our de-facto #3 starter at the beginning, “promoted” to #2 when Webb went down. So in reality, the trade was not a #3-for-#3, it was to bring Jackson to replace Davis and get rid of Max.
6. I love Max, but he has always had a primadonna pitcher aura around him. Kinda like Kazmir. Supposedly a great pitcher with Jupiter-sized potential that is just about to come around and have a breakout year, but keeps getting injured and nicked up.
I don’t even wanna talk about the throw-ins because that’s what they were, throw-ins.
Bring back the Baltimore Chop!
Let me re-address (and re-enforce) your point on the money issue
There is no money issue. Period. There’s a control issue, sure, but that’s the only real downside of this one. We give up Scherzer (a little less than $1M) for Jackson (arbitration is likely to give him $5M). Schlereth and Kennedy balance each other out money-wise. So, we get an additional starting pitcher for the #4 spot, which we had a need for, for approximately $4M. What kind of money do those guys get on the market? Well, Brad Penny just got $7.5M yesterday, and that’s likely to set the market. This means that we only spend a net of $3.5M (technically more around $3.7M) to get a #4 starter, so we have probably somewhere around $6.3M left for bullpen pieces and a bat, rather than just $2.5M or so. That’s a HUGE difference.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
Whoa whoa whoa
I screwed up my math. Don’t worry, it’s only my major. The net cost of getting Jackson is likely around $4.2M, but that still gives us $5.8M instead of $2.5M.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
Plus
if you factor in the price for a Scherzer replacement if/when he gets injured in the middle of the pennant race, that drives his maintenance cost even higher.
Bring back the Baltimore Chop!
And if Scherzer is forced to the 'pen.
We score big.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 4:22 PM EST up reply actions
If Scherzer gets injured this year,
and/or is forced to the ’pen, we won the trade.
I think.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
So long as "forced" to the pen
…also doesn’t quite mean the same as becomes a lights out closer, which I think could happen.
Ooh, Jackson is a Boras client too?
Damn. Didn’t know that.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Oof. Shame.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
Yea, unfortunately
I got happy when I saw the deal at first because I knew Max was, and less Boras means better living, but then I did some internet searching, and Jackson’s name popped up next to Boras’ name quite a bit.
Bring back the Baltimore Chop!
Also,
Edwin Jackson is on the list on this page http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Boras
Bring back the Baltimore Chop!
Hmmm....
maybe they’re just really good friends?
Or… maybe they’re… um…. uh oh, scandalous!!
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
i still cant understand how this trade works in the longterm
if Jackson’s contract is up after two years, i guess the dbacks are banking on jarrod parker coming back and being 100 percent
Or extending Jackson
He’s only a year younger than Scherzer and could still feasibly develop – a bit of a scary thought.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 3:58 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah
Thanks.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 4:00 PM EST up reply actions
Ummmmm....
Of course not. We hate extensions, right?
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 4:03 PM EST up reply actions
no extensions are good
especially on balding middle aged female actresses… oops there I go off topic again….
I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....
Byrnes, Tracy, Snyder, Young, Webb, Haren, Qualls, Conor Jackson
No we don’t.
Bring back the Baltimore Chop!
Dan Haren would like to respectfully disagree.
As would Chad Tracy, Eric Byrnes and Chris Young. (Okay, maybe those are bad examples)
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Yeah, but
there’s almost no chance of that happening if his agent is Boras.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Hmmm....
as a pitcher, you don’t wanna throw off his rhythm.
So. Traded next winter?
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
ahh well opinions are like
I watch MLB.com and Duquette says the D’Backs did good. You check K. Law’s teaser on his analysis over at ESPN and it says “sorry, D’Backs fans”.
I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....
Dave Cameron
over at Fangraphs hates this deal for the Dbacks
raygu
by Ray Guilfoyle on Dec 8, 2009 4:08 PM EST up reply actions
Been there, read that,
had my comment here pasted over there.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Law also didn't have Carpenter on his Cy Young ballot
Or was it Wainwright? Either way, he is a clown.
Bring back the Baltimore Chop!
Are you serious!??
Well, that could have taken the CY from Timcecum’s undeserving, pot-stinking, grubby little hands right there.
KEITH LAW, SIR, I DISAPPROVE!!
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
It was Carpenter
http://moondogsports.com/2009/11/19/keith-law-left-chris-carpenter-off-his-cy-young-ballot-wtf/
http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=4671356&name=law_keith&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fespn%2fblog%2findex%3fentryID%3d4671356%26name%3dlaw_keith
Bring back the Baltimore Chop!
turn around and deal Jackson?
:-)
Indianapolis Colts, taking focus away from my DBacks every Sunday.
From KTAR Twitter
Sports 620 KTAR’s John Gambadoro reports the D-backs/Yankees/Tigers trade is finalized, just waiting on Kennedy to pass his physical.
Better Josh Byrnes
than terrorists.
Or cancer.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
listening to KTAR
This Kennedy kid is suppose to be really good, had great stats in minors and in fall league
Yeah, no shit.
He wouldn’t be the first prospect to fail under the glare of the New York lights, only to succeed elsewhere.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
My gut feeling says
Take this kid out of the NY limelight and he starts to show his true potential. So Cal kid at heart I believe, it’d be good to get him back to the left coast.
I too have an uncle…
Pedro Cerrano: Jesus, I like him very much, but he no help with curveball.
Eddie Harris: You trying to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?
+1
thought i would be left out to dry on that one.
Pedro Cerrano: Jesus, I like him very much, but he no help with curveball.
Eddie Harris: You trying to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?
1,400 visitors to the 'Pit last *hour*
Being #1 on Google News when you put in ‘Max Scherzer’ has its benefits. :-)
"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil
Oh, wow....
yeah, there we are.
That probably explains the comment at FanGraphs, too.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
people like disasters
probably came to see the doom and gloom. I think we really disappointed them.
Indianapolis Colts, taking focus away from my DBacks every Sunday.
It's almost like a GDT
and makes me realize that I can’t wait for the season to start again. And not just for the games, but for our community.
Nobody on the road Nobody on the beach
I feel it in the air The summer's out of reach
by 4 Corners Fan on Dec 8, 2009 4:49 PM EST up reply actions
i still dont get the fact that the dbacks are trying to make a win now move
this team is not built for that type of thinking
turn around with the money saved on a pitcher
and get a consistent OBP bat along with player growth and we’re competitive next year.
Indianapolis Colts, taking focus away from my DBacks every Sunday.
And the returns of our best pitcher and best hitter from '08
You bet we are.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 4:35 PM EST up reply actions
hence i'm coming around to this trade
it hinges on the bat for me to put my stamp of approval on
Indianapolis Colts, taking focus away from my DBacks every Sunday.
What bat would we get, though?
Figgy has already signed with the Mariners, otherwise I’d say we should go after him.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
thats what I don't know
will Jason Bay take a pay cut for nice weather?
Indianapolis Colts, taking focus away from my DBacks every Sunday.
Pssshhht.
We’ll take an Australian or two, but we DON’T want Canadians!!
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Xavier Nady?
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 4:53 PM EST up reply actions
He DOES have a cool name.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
And could be cheap
After being out all of ’09. Would maybe be limited to 1B because of his throwing arm, but he can hit.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 5:19 PM EST up reply actions
In this instance
I’ll just reference the line from Blazing Saddles, as it’s inappropriate to quote it.
"Spam headline: 'YOU ARE CHOSEN!' Oh, Morpheus, you're getting pretty lazy."
"Or they are informing you you are Jewish in a very lame conversion campaign."
"In either case, sending me spam is not the way to invite me to Zion."
I was thinking of that, too.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
According to KTAR/Gambo
Dbacks are interested in Casey kotchman
Ok...
Nice.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 4:46 PM EST up reply actions
Now there's an idea.
I wouldn’t mind that at all.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Scherzer needs development (can't survive in the majors with 1.75 pitches)
Jackson is developed.
Bring back the Baltimore Chop!
Well they kinda are...sorta
Because it’s getting to the point that if Drew, Snyder, Young, Jackson, et. al. don’t reach the heights they’ve been projected too, it’s hard to see them ever getting to that point consistently. And if that doesn’t happen, they’re not a win-in-the-foreseeable-future team, either. They might in fact be an everything-must-go-for cheap team that rebuilds around Haren, J Up, and Reynolds.
God forbid that be the case, but it’s beginning to look that way if our hitters keep regressing.
This is an interesting point.
So, I’m going to plug my eyes and sing. LALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALALA…..
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Only done it once,
in an underground club in Amsterdam….
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
C.J. Wilson tweets he's "borderline offended"
by AZ’s offer of Snyder for Wilson to the Rangers.
Thank god that didn’t happen. Guy’s a douche.
Indianapolis Colts, taking focus away from my DBacks every Sunday.
+1
Wow.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 5:19 PM EST up reply actions
Haven’t been here in awhile. Thanks to this trade, I had to say something..
I love this trade.
Im sure this has all been said but
Save money, save the bullpen, Ian Kennedy used to be a top five prospect (yes in the Yankees system shut up), Jackson is only one year older than Max.
I call dibs on azsnakepit’s mancrush on edwin jackson.
Mostly cause I already have one….
Pedro Cerrano: Jesus, I like him very much, but he no help with curveball.
Eddie Harris: You trying to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?
Designated mancrush on Edwin Jackson
granted to PhoenixFly.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
All who agree with this motion, say "I"
“I”
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 5:20 PM EST up reply actions
I
Gotta respect him for making first claim, good initiative.
"Spam headline: 'YOU ARE CHOSEN!' Oh, Morpheus, you're getting pretty lazy."
"Or they are informing you you are Jewish in a very lame conversion campaign."
"In either case, sending me spam is not the way to invite me to Zion."
I!
I will make sure that all Edwin articles are fairly commented on and will attempt to not defend him in a “troll”-like manner.
An Explanation:
I was at his ML debut. Where he went nine, outdueled the Big Unit and looked like he would destroy the NL West for years to come. I bought his rookie card signed and saved the newspaper and saved ticket. He became my favorite non-DBacks player and only Dodger besides Gonzo I ever liked. Fair to say that things didn’t go smoothly until last year…
Pedro Cerrano: Jesus, I like him very much, but he no help with curveball.
Eddie Harris: You trying to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?
With three affirmative votes
The matter is officially closed.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 8:00 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not quite sure
we have quorum, however.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Hi Travers. :)
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 5:21 PM EST up reply actions
I LOVE EDWIN
I know the names are similar but please no Twlight like references.
Everytime I say I love Edwin, thats what pops in my head….
Pedro Cerrano: Jesus, I like him very much, but he no help with curveball.
Eddie Harris: You trying to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?
If I start calling him Edwin Cullen
What are the odds on you murdering me over Christmas Break?
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 7:42 PM EST up reply actions
I will break you…
Pedro Cerrano: Jesus, I like him very much, but he no help with curveball.
Eddie Harris: You trying to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?
Seriously
Justifiable homicide.
"Spam headline: 'YOU ARE CHOSEN!' Oh, Morpheus, you're getting pretty lazy."
"Or they are informing you you are Jewish in a very lame conversion campaign."
"In either case, sending me spam is not the way to invite me to Zion."
Hmmmm....
Yeah, worth it.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 7:58 PM EST up reply actions
I think the most important point not made yet
If Jackson and/or Kennedy are struggling, how long will it be before they get annointed the X-Headed Beast of Scherzer-Replacement Suck?
That
would be Jim’s purview.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
We need to do some kind of Frankensteinian surgery
To make them a one-headed beast with different colored eyes…
"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil
Son of a . . .
Sigh. Haven’t been here in ages, but just heard the news and came to see what the mood is here. Scherzer going to Detroit is not what I wanted on my birthday!!!!
Just means
you’ll have to change your avatar, that’s all.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Well, Happy Birthday!!
Maybe these guys will make you proud come next season. Also, keep the avatar. It’s nice.
Nobody on the road Nobody on the beach
I feel it in the air The summer's out of reach
by 4 Corners Fan on Dec 8, 2009 6:35 PM EST up reply actions
Well
All I know is that I went from NOOOOOOOO to slightly better, as I originally thought Max was going to be playing for the MFY.
/returns to obscurity
Warning: the above represents the thoughts and opinions of a 16-year-old.
Wanna see how bad I suck at softball? See my stats...
Looks like I missed the big day
And ended up being 290 comments in the hole.
Meh.
Too much conjecture right now coming from all angles. No one knows the value of this trade until the season starts to pan out. Looking at the paper though, it’s hard to swallow losing two of your youngest and most highly regarded pitchers. I’ll give the benefit of the doubt to Josh Byrnes and his scouts though, and cross my fingers that Edwin and Ian are everything anyone could ever hope for.
Time to prepare the Edwin vs. Max watch.
Wear your own fur.
I'm not sure
Schlereth is one of our most highly regarded pitchers.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
He is
But he was slipping. Had more value after ’08 than ’09, which is pretty depressing. No control.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 8:03 PM EST up reply actions
I'll also give Josh Byrnes
the benefit of the doubt here. I have considerable respect for his appraisal of starting pitchers. Davis, Garland, Livan and Haren all performed better than I expected, and none arrived without controversy.
Right now, I give that more weight than what Dave Cameron thinks.
If the FO is the focus of anything, something is seriously wrong with the picture ! - unnamedDBacksfan 2/20/09
I agree with you here
I don’t want to give the man credit because we just dealt a potential superstar, but then again if these two guys perform and we get a bat to go with, he immediately turned us from pretenders to contenders.
Indianapolis Colts, taking focus away from my DBacks every Sunday.
I agree here.
I generally find myself satisfied with the job Byrnes has done, despite the constant complaints found on other forums.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 10:33 PM EST up reply actions
Just don't tell NASCARbernet.
;-)
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
That's to be expected, right?
We had a very disappointing year, considering preseason expectations. Even with the injuries, it’s not easy to finish below the San Diego Padres. A dubious managerial hire, at least short term. They’ve averaged 79.5 wins in the JB era, but are going in the wrong direction (w/L) with a core that’s supposed to be coming of age. Fans have every right to be pissed at the GM, even if it’s not all his fault.
It’s hard to rate a GM, not just cuz things take so long to unfold, but also in our case, I’m not always sure what authority Josh truly enjoys. That said, I think he’s been pretty suspect on the positional side, and I lost respect for him on the timing of the Hinch hire. But I do think he’s a sharp evaluator of pitchers.
So far, anway [fingers crossed] !
If the FO is the focus of anything, something is seriously wrong with the picture ! - unnamedDBacksfan 2/20/09
by Diamondhacks on Dec 9, 2009 12:09 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah....
one of the things to take into account when judging J.Byrnes is the degree of salary flexibility he has. We have one of the lower payrolls in baseball, so he has to make due.
That, of course, is on ownership, both past and present.
Moorad leaving was definitely a step in the right direction, though.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
JB also inherited
a fortuitously lucrative farm system from Maya Angelou’s insanely philanthropic half brother, Jericho Angelou.
If the FO is the focus of anything, something is seriously wrong with the picture ! - unnamedDBacksfan 2/20/09
Awful for the D'backs
Scherzer and Jackson are not that different IMO
Check out my website, it has scouting reports for all the Orioles' top prospects and is updated daily. www.oriolesprospects.com
Follow me on twitter
It's not entirely about the difference in Jackson and Scherzer
It’s about getting another starter for a relatively cheap price in this market.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 8:04 PM EST up reply actions
"Awful"?
Isn’t that a bit dramatic?
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
What
do you look to happen next? 1st base really bothers me and the LOOGY problem is also of concern. RailRoad looks to be ok at second.
Thoughts?
Pedro Cerrano: Jesus, I like him very much, but he no help with curveball.
Eddie Harris: You trying to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?
I think CoJack and BAllen, with occasionally Rusty,
give us credible 1B players.
That is, of course, assuming CoJack comes back and has another year like 2008.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
and assuming
we want to play him at 1st again.
I’ve always wondered how that was going to be worked out.
Pedro Cerrano: Jesus, I like him very much, but he no help with curveball.
Eddie Harris: You trying to say Jesus Christ can't hit a curveball?
How about a quick roster view?
Rotation: Haren, Webb, Jackson, Kennedy, Buckner
CL, SU: Qualls, Heilman (or FA)
MR: Boyer, Gutierrez, Zavada, Vasquez, FA LOOGY (or Heilman)
C: Montero, Snyder
1B: Allen, Ryal
2B: Abreu, Roberts
SS: Drew, Ojeda
3B: Reynolds(, Ojeda)
LF: Jackson, Parra, Byrnes*
CF: CY(, Parra, Byrnes*)
RF: Upton(, Parra, Byrnes*)
- Could be Gillespie if we can dump Byrnes on someone to save $1M or so.
Assuming an 7-man bullpen, that’s 26 guys. Trading Snyder does nothing about this, because then we just have to bring up Hester. Dumping Byrnes does nothing, because then we need to bring up Gillespie for 5 OF. What we have is too many IF. One of the Roberts/Ryal/Ojeda group has to go. I think Roberts will be the guy. Also, if we sign an infield bat, I can see us starting with Allen in the minors for some more development until an injury necessitates his recall.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
Roberts
can also play OF, though, against lefties.
Between Upton, RyRo, and CY, we could have an outfield that DESTROYS left-handed pitching.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Hmmm.... LHP...
And let’s see… NL West……..
Dodgers: Kershaw
Padres: Clayton Richard and Aaron Poreda(?)
Giants: Zito, ZOMGZ Sanchez.
Rockies: Francis and JDLR
Not a horribly bad number of lefties in the division. Especially since Kershaw is one of just three current Dodgers starters, so they may look for another. Giants also need to fill a spot (will Lowry be ready?). So there’s some feasting to be had, I suppose.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 9, 2009 3:10 AM EST up reply actions
I'd think
out of that trio it would be Ojeda to get the boot.
Can somebody please throw away this telephone?
Nah.
He’s one of the best defenders on the team, and that’s an aspect in which our team is desperately lacking.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
But
he’s also an offensive black hole, another problem area. If there’s room on the bench, then he’s fine as a defensive replacement, but let’s not go overboard on his value to the team.
Can somebody please throw away this telephone?
Mr. McLennan did a part about his WAR
And it’s near the top on the team because of his defense. Again, this shows exactly how undervalued defense is. And why Seattle appears to be doing things scarily right.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 9, 2009 3:06 AM EST up reply actions
Augie's ability
to play critical defensive positions, and to play them well, is actually quite valuable. You’re right, he cant hit, but if he could, he wouldnt be a sub – he’d be Ian Kinsler :-)
If you exclude Roberts (who filled in for Lopez), Augie was our best bench player last year. Part of the reason was that the rest of the bench sucked, but Augie did ok. There’s a reason why fans like him, beyond his novelty size. He turns tough chances into outs. He’ll take a pitch on the shoulder when we need a runner. Alot of players, starters and higher profile bench players with louder hitting skills, dont do that.
He’s 35 now, so there’s that. But based on the past several yrs, we could do worse than Augie as our 24th or 25th guy. A lot worse.
If the FO is the focus of anything, something is seriously wrong with the picture ! - unnamedDBacksfan 2/20/09
OMG I hate this trade already...
Edwin Jackson sucks. I’m sorry, but he does…he couldn’t cut the mustard when he was with the Dodgers, hence he wound up in the AL and now he’s gone from there too…and another effing BORAS CLIENT to boot! I swear Josh Byrnes is an effing moron!
"AUGIE AUGIE AUGIE...OY OY OY!"
Hrrrm?
So does last season not matter?
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 10:34 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah....
it’s sorta like saying, circa 1992, OMG Curt Schilling sucks, did you see him last year with the Astros?? He was AWFUL!! He’s going to SUCK this year with the Phillies.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
LOL well said Skins
"Yeah I could have been king, but maybe I already am king. Hail to the king baby." Ash from Army of Darkness
You're showing your age a little, 'Skins.
This pre-dates even me. I was 2…
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 9, 2009 3:11 AM EST up reply actions
Well, technically,
it pre-dates me being a baseball fan. That was the year I moved to Arizona, though.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Sooooo
He left the Dodgers to play in the better league, became an All-Star, and won’t be a free agent for two years, and somehow this equals not only that Jackson is awful, but that Byrnes is an idiot?
How does this even begin to make sense?
Can somebody please throw away this telephone?
Well, yeah
Obviously 75 innings pitched between the ages of 19 and 21 are easily proof enough to judge a guy’s career. He’s toast, he’ll never improve past that!
"Spam headline: 'YOU ARE CHOSEN!' Oh, Morpheus, you're getting pretty lazy."
"Or they are informing you you are Jewish in a very lame conversion campaign."
"In either case, sending me spam is not the way to invite me to Zion."
Well
I think we can just about wrap up your Major League career while we’re at it.
"Spam headline: 'YOU ARE CHOSEN!' Oh, Morpheus, you're getting pretty lazy."
"Or they are informing you you are Jewish in a very lame conversion campaign."
"In either case, sending me spam is not the way to invite me to Zion."
I'm okay with this
we seem to have exchanged one starting pitcher that can’t be guaranteed to perform for the whole season for two, which by my calculations doubles our chances of having a solid number 3 next year.
'Does Magna Carta mean nothing to you? Did she die in vain?'
by Arizona via Slough on Dec 8, 2009 10:01 PM EST reply actions
Wait
we agree on something????
Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
Can somebody please throw away this telephone?
We also both agree
about your wife?
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Notr much to say after this
As others are now frequently noting, Scherzer has long been tabbed as a future stud pitcher and would have come cheap the next few seasons because he’s under team control for five more years. Now Arizona will have to deal with Edwin Jackson’s escalating arbitration salaries until he’s a free agent after 2011 and must hope that Kennedy stays off the disabled list and fulfills the promise he had when drafted by the Yankees. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic surmises that the D’Backs must have soured on Scherzer somehow or must really see something in Kennedy that others don’t.
"If there's nothing wrong with me, maybe there's something wrong with the universe!"
by unnamedDBacksfan on Dec 8, 2009 10:21 PM EST reply actions
Presumably,
the guy isn’t going to get another arm aneurysm that knocks him out for the entire season, like last year.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Ok I'm going to summarize optimistically
This is mainly to collect my thoughts so I can understand this myself, but I thought I’d put it in a public forum.
Max Scherzer- POTENTIAL future all-pro pitcher who’s lack of a complete 2nd pitch, coupled with his mechanics is a health risk and most likely bound for the bullpen due to his strikeout or no out capabilities. He is under team control for the next 5 years.
Daniel Schlereth- Son of former Broncos lineman Mark Schlereth who’s absolutely filthy curveball is nullified by his inability to actually hit the strike zone with it. First round college relief pitcher who wasn’t even the closer on his college team, yet has closer potential. Also a major health risk due to mechanics. (Trade throw-in)
for
Edwin Jackson- 26 year old starting pitcher with 2 years of team control left. He established himself as a good 2-3 starter with the Tigers last year, but ran out of gas late in the season. His fantastic numbers in the AL would translate better to a weaker hitting NL West, I think with a bit of regression (as his last season would be hard to replicate) would basically keep him around a 3.5 ERA, conservatively. He would slot into Max’s spot in the rotation at 3 and has proven to be durable.
Ian Kennedy- Yankees starting pitcher (which immediately gives him more value than Schlereth) who has struggled in his 12 major league starts in the heavy hitting AL East. He missed all of last year with an aneurysm. However he came back in the AFL and was lights out against a plethora of future MLBers. The entirety of the front office scouted one of his AFL starts. He has an absolutely filthy changeup and immediately slots into the vacant 4 spot in the rotation.
SO here is what this trade initially boils down to. The Arizona Diamondbacks are a very budget conscious team and if they plan to compete within the next year or two a trade like this had to be done. They give up Max Scherzer who provides at least one year as an unproven starter and as a whole 5 years of uncertainty, whether its 5-6 innings per start, injury or fireballing out of the bullpen. Danny Schlereth is a run of the mill hard thrower out of the ’pen, dime a dozen.
We trade them both for two starters. One, Jackson, is a proven pitcher who can more than handle a role as a number 3 in a NL rotation. Ian Kennedy is unproven but talented enough to be a career 4-5 starter in the AL, perhaps better in the NL. Take Kennedy out of the pressures of pitching in NY and he wouldn’t be the first to improve.
Now the key part of this trade isn’t the players sent or players received it is the personnel transaction. The DBacks have turned one uncertain #3 starting pitcher and middle reliever into a guaranteed #3 starting pitcher and a #4 starting pitcher. Without this they would have to go out and get one in FA. After the Penny signing it looks like the price of a #4 caliber pitcher is $7.5 million a year guaranteed. After a bit of swapping for pitchers and salary they save roughly $4 million dollars and fill a necessary role.
Those saved funds can then be turned towards a bat that can hit left handed pitching and platoon/play 1B or LF. So assuming they do go out and get that bat, the DBacks, achieve two things with this trade. They get a #4 pitcher and a very needed bat. If this trade did not happen the Diamondbacks, with limited funds, would probably have to pick one or the other. Both are essential to compete next year. Without one of these next year would be more of the same of this year. This trade gives them the possibility to compete next year and the year after where without it they would basically be waiting on Jarrod Parker to get healthy again (2 years).
This is what I have at this. Please add or build onto this comment if you have something to add or correct. It would help me greatly to gather this all in a few comments instead of 300 comments.
Indianapolis Colts, taking focus away from my DBacks every Sunday.
so what it boils down to
Is Max Scherzer worth two years of competition now or 3 years of gross uncertainty and 2 years of competition in 2012?
Indianapolis Colts, taking focus away from my DBacks every Sunday.
When you put it like that
I start to feel slightly better about the trade.
"Spam headline: 'YOU ARE CHOSEN!' Oh, Morpheus, you're getting pretty lazy."
"Or they are informing you you are Jewish in a very lame conversion campaign."
"In either case, sending me spam is not the way to invite me to Zion."
Assumptions
So assuming they do go out and get that bat
You remember the old saying about assuming, right? This is the Diamondbacks, after all. ;)
by azshadowwalker on Dec 9, 2009 2:42 AM EST up reply actions
It'll either be that or a good bullpen arm
I’d be in favor of the bullpen arm, personally. Since there are SO DARNED MANY on the market, the market surplus could drive prices down. Heck, if the Braves decide to eventually release Rafael Soriano and save some money, but yet all of the teams in need of relievers have already gone out and gotten their guys, why wouldn’t he take two years and $12M from us? That’s a closer in 2011 and a set-up man in 2010 (who is probably better than Qualls already…).
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 9, 2009 3:17 AM EST up reply actions
i just gotta say
i love the ‘pit, fleshing out this offseason trade in a strong thread. i’m going to pore over every post before going back to staring out the window waiting for spring.
"Have a take and do not suck or you will get run." - Jim Rome
Heh....
I’ve been lucky lately. I got to watch Wildcats football on Saturday, (and now I get to watch them in the Holiday Bowl) Redskins and Cardinals football on Sunday, Georgetown basketball today, and then I even got some Dbacks trade conversations in today.
I was thinking today about how much I miss baseball season, though. I prefer football as a game, but football isn’t played everyday. :-(
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
yeah
i was exaggerating a bit, been watching my 8-4 Cards and caught the ASU-UofA game, but still nothing like baseball season.
"Have a take and do not suck or you will get run." - Jim Rome
Would rather watch
Wildcat football than D’backs baseball any day of the week—and twice on Sundays. Yeah, baseball is fine, but is in no way comparable to college football. The basketball team is struggling, but watching the Wildcats kick butt and take names on the football field is something I’ve been waiting for since the last time they played Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl.
by azshadowwalker on Dec 9, 2009 2:44 AM EST up reply actions
College sport
Do not get me started on this topic, believe me…
"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil
by Jim McLennan on Dec 10, 2009 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah....
Jim hates amateurs.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 10, 2009 11:49 AM EST up reply actions
Only when
They are treated and behave like professionals.
"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil
by Jim McLennan on Dec 10, 2009 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
These are college students
Regardless of how they are treated, it’s rare to find a twenty year-old who behaves like a professional. =)
"I can just see it: Post 'Intervention? Why would I need an intervention?' And then he'd +1 himself."
I said rare, not impossible
"I can just see it: Post 'Intervention? Why would I need an intervention?' And then he'd +1 himself."
Pshhhhhhhh.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 11, 2009 1:05 AM EST up reply actions
so mad
what’s next dan haren for a shinny pen?
"Twin-headed infinite swirling vortex of grotesque suckitude known as Tony Clark and Eric Byrnes"
Even deadspin is on our case :)
“Three-way trades! Don’t you love them? The Yankees get the big name in Curtis Granderson, but the Tigers are the big winners with a can’t-miss OF prospect, two young starters and a bullpen lefty. The Diamondbacks, true to form, get shat on.”
Pssshhht. Eff Deadspin.
They can suck it.
World Championships: Arizona Diamondbacks 1, Deadspin 0.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
yeah those lame screwjobs
only got an all star pitcher whose trending upwards in K’s and downwards in walks. Plus that Kennedy guy is no Yusmeiro Petit! and all that for a fireballer who couldn’t get out of the 5th inning and a reliever who couldn’t find the strike zone. Sheesh, you would have thought they could have gotten some used sports equipment or somthin’ valueble.
I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....
But, dude!
A big name! So they’re gonna… Um, use a lot of letters to put “Granderson” on the back of the jersey, I guess.
Seriously, someone was talking about how the switch to the Yankees would put less pressure on Granderson. Has a move to New York ever put less strain on a player? I mean, it’s the Yankees and the media firestorm that entails.
"I can just see it: Post 'Intervention? Why would I need an intervention?' And then he'd +1 himself."
It's not necessarily about your numbers
In the AFL. It’s the stuff you demonstrate for scouts, FO people, etc. The D-Backs sent their entire front office to scout a Kennedy start this fall, and came back raving about him. Scout work reigns supreme in the AFL, stats reign supreme in the regular season. And with Kennedy’s 2.17 ERA (IIRC, I know it’s in the 2.1’s) after recovering from his aneurysm surgery during the regular season, he passed the bigger tests (but not the only tests, I’ll admit). We were high on him.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 9, 2009 9:04 AM EST up reply actions
Does this mean
They would have or would not have taken it? Because they may have but only because Kennedy was out of favor in the Bronx. Any team but the Yankees is offered that in this situation, I think they say no… Just an opinion.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 9, 2009 9:16 AM EST up reply actions
LOL
Is that a friendly “bite our hand off” gesture or an unfriendly one? Hard to tell with the Yankees.
by Counsellmember on Dec 9, 2009 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
Well...
You could use the awkward metaphor that they bit on the deal (zing), or that they… well… bit us for offering a deal they didn’t want?
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 9, 2009 3:33 PM EST up reply actions
However,
I wasn’t speaking quantitatively. I was at a Kennedy start and he really underwhelmed, he was being hit hard by Mesa (I think) in Surprise. He wasn’t exceeding 92 and his location was meh. Against a major league lineup (Mesa only had 2-3 good prospects on it) he would have gotten torched.
Scouts are highly subject to groupthink and I think this is one of their least good ideas aside from liking that shortstop for the Mariners.
by Reynolds rapper on Dec 9, 2009 10:07 AM EST up reply actions
Ummm...
Yuniesky Betancourt? What does he have to do with anything?
Also, he sits 88-92. Not soft, but nothing to blow anybody away. It’s his secondary stuff, location, feel for pitching, etc. If he really had “meh” location then that explains the bad start. And if he has “meh” location next year it could be a long season for him.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 9, 2009 3:35 PM EST up reply actions
he was coveted by the Yankees for his location and secondary pitches
before he fell out of favor they loved that he threw strikes and made people look stupid with his changeup.
Indianapolis Colts, taking focus away from my DBacks every Sunday.
Precisely.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 9, 2009 10:40 PM EST up reply actions
Not Betancourt.
There was a 6’3" Mariners prospect (AA, I think) in the fall league whom was made to look stupid by the AA pitchers. My point in talking about that is at the Fall League there were a couple guys who were liked for no good reason.
As far as Kennedy, I’d have expected more especially against AA hitters (which was the predominant level at the AFL) who haven’t quite learned to hit yet.
by Reynolds rapper on Dec 9, 2009 9:20 PM EST up reply actions
"whom" should read "who"
the sentence started different than it ended.
by Reynolds rapper on Dec 9, 2009 9:20 PM EST up reply actions
Ackley
Was not in the minors this year. AFL is his first professional baseball.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 11, 2009 1:06 AM EST up reply actions
The more I think about this move, the more I'm okay with it
Or maybe that’s “The more I rationalize it to myself,” I’m not sure.
It’s an aggressive move, obviously. It’s a “we’re going to do it this year” move. It’s a gamble by Josh Byrnes, and I kinda dig that. He’s betting the season, and his reputation as a GM, on the idea that this move is going to pay off. He either wins this trade, and in a big way, or he’s pretty much done in Phoenix. He’s betting a lot on this move, and I appreciate it.
We’re not going to have an off-season where we sit back and complain that our front office didn’t do anything. I feel like Byrnes is making a stand here. Maybe it pays off, maybe it backfires massively. But I respect that he’s making a move, and I’m curious to see how it turns out.
"I can just see it: Post 'Intervention? Why would I need an intervention?' And then he'd +1 himself."
And if this is the case,
Then how’s about my Uggla idea? :-)
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 9, 2009 10:41 PM EST up reply actions
Look
We all know this could get real Uggla if it goes bad, but- Oh, right, I see what you meant. =)
I must have missed your idea- what was it?
"I can just see it: Post 'Intervention? Why would I need an intervention?' And then he'd +1 himself."
I put up a FanPost
With a possible trade where we could pry Dan Uggla from Florida. We now have the budget space with this deal if we can free up a million or two.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 9, 2009 10:47 PM EST up reply actions
positive
Ejack will win in the nl west, 03 great starters. IKen a fine number 4, sighn a stud closer all is good. also cojack 1st, base, try hard to X CY,…bryns will regain the feel, he has the heart and desire to be a winner.
I have no idea
what “try hard to X CY” means — however, I agree with most of this optimism.
Except for the bryns part.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
is it possible
to use the money we saved to get nady to platoon at first/outfield?
are we still thinking about getting nick johnson?
Interesting point
made by Rox Girl in today’s Rockpile:
As far as the first way of looking at yesterday’s big trade, by using the 2010 CHONE projections, the Diamondbacks receive 45 runs of value over replacement, the Tigers, 23, and the Yankees, 4. I’m not a math person, but I’m guessing that in future seasons projections would show the Tigers making up that ground on the Diamondbacks. The Snakes do seem to get the most present value from this trade.
She seems to think that this trade really DOES make us a lot more solid in the near term.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
I really agreed with the point that PR made about how it doesn’t seem like the Yankees are the absolute clear winners here like everyone says they are. They gave up a lot, and I don’t really see how Granderson (.249/.327/.453, OPS+ of 100, at age 29) is a big upgrade over Melky Cabrera (.274/.336/.416, OPS+ of 99 at age 24) to make it worth trading off everyone they did.
Besides, they scored the most runs of anyone in the majors last year, it’s not like their offense needs much of an upgrade.
"I can just see it: Post 'Intervention? Why would I need an intervention?' And then he'd +1 himself."
I'm going to make predictions
If they’re right, I get intellectual satisfaction, if I’m wrong, it’s probably a good year for the DBacks and I can deal with the shame of failure :) .
First off, AT COMERICA Jackson was 7-3 with a 4.27 ERA surrendering 14 HR. On the road he had a 3.05 ERA surrendering 13 HR.
If he surrenders HR’s at the same rate as last year, adjusting for park size he’ll surrender 15HR at Chase and probably 11-12 on the road since he gets to pitch at Petco and Pac Bell. Honestly if I had to guess, plugging these in with the same Earned run to homerun ratio that will translate to 4.55 at Chase to 2.58 on the road (assuming 11 HR) which would yield a 3.74 total ERA if he pitched as well as he did last year.
If he pitches like his best Tampa year, he’ll give up 12 HR at Chase for an ERA of 4.96 and 10HR on the Road for an ERA of 3.68 for a grand total of an ERA at 4.28.
If you think he’ll fall between 2008 and 2009 in terms of productivity, he’ll fall somewhere between a 3.74 and a 4.28. I want to go really pessimistic and say 4.25+ because I get the feeling that Manny + Loney Helton +A GonKung Fu Panda will yield more HR’s at Chase and his GB/FB % is .66 and .64 the last 2 years. Fly ball pitchers at Chase field don’t usually end well. His homerun per fly ball % is similar to Garland and he surrenders more fly balls than Garland.
Kennedy-2 stints on the 15 day DL
I’d rather have taken the chance wtih Scherzer as #4 and Penny as #3 at 7.5-8 Mil for 1 year.
by Reynolds rapper on Dec 10, 2009 2:09 AM EST up reply actions
Just watched an interview with JB
They asked if he was worried about Jackson moving from a spacious AL ballpark to a cramped NL ballpark, as many have noted here. Byrnes responded by noting that Haren has made that exact transition fairly well. I’m not going to say all the numbers match perfectly, but perhaps that’s worth noting.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 10, 2009 2:10 AM EST up reply actions
But
we could just as easily get evil Garland.
by Reynolds rapper on Dec 10, 2009 2:12 AM EST up reply actions
Was Garland really that evil?
In his time with the D-Backs, Garland had an ERA+ over 100. Even pitching at Chase. And if you think Garland is better than Jackson, I have a bridge I’d like to sell you.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 10, 2009 2:13 AM EST up reply actions
Evil? No.
A douche? Yeah, kinda. (As pointed out by edbigghead)
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
by DbacksSkins on Dec 10, 2009 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
Still put up numbers
And that’s what we’re looking for from Jackson. Also, a guy in the Tigers O said that Jackson has a great makeup and is a great kid.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 11, 2009 1:07 AM EST up reply actions
Garland?
Went from a 4.90 ERA in LA to a 4.20 ERA for the Diamondbacks.
Seriously, if the guy hadn’t air-mailed pick-off throws to first, I wouldn’t really complain much about his stay here.
"I can just see it: Post 'Intervention? Why would I need an intervention?' And then he'd +1 himself."
Garland
actually had one of his better seasons with us last year.
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
Garland throws fewer fly balls
than Jackson. Also, a lot of Garland’s good stats were after the horse had left the barn.
by Reynolds rapper on Dec 10, 2009 2:14 AM EST reply actions
I'm confused as to what "a lot of Garland's good stats were after the horse had left the barn" means...
Kishi shows you above what his stats were with the D-Backs. And sure, you get a few fewer fly-balls. But you get better K/BB, better stuff, younger, more potential, better ERA, almost everything from Garland’s ‘08 LAA season and Jackson’s ’09 DET season points for Jackson being more effective.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 10, 2009 2:17 AM EST up reply actions
I mean
in the first half of the season he had a 4.53 ERA and he upped his game as he neared the deadline and sensed an exit was imminent..
by Reynolds rapper on Dec 10, 2009 2:21 AM EST up reply actions
Your point?
It’s not like a pitcher can say “abra kadabra” and become better because he chooses to. Arizona is a small-market club with almost no media exposure, so it’s not like the guy was finally relaxing after facing a ton of pressure early in the season…
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 10, 2009 2:23 AM EST up reply actions
Since we fundamentally disagree,
put me down for a 4.25+ on Jackson and I’ll say I’m wrong if I’m wrong since that was my main point anyway.
by Reynolds rapper on Dec 10, 2009 2:26 AM EST up reply actions
Well
By Jim’s ad-hoc ranking that’d place him as a pretty solid #3, which I would be okay with.
"I can just see it: Post 'Intervention? Why would I need an intervention?' And then he'd +1 himself."
Meh
That works i s’pose. No fun for debate’s sake though. :-)
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 10, 2009 2:32 AM EST up reply actions
The good thing about mathematical models
is they yield testable predictions. :)
And I have some reason for saying what I’m saying even if it only makes sense to me when I’m tired. :)
by Reynolds rapper on Dec 10, 2009 2:37 AM EST reply actions
Ahh.
See, that’s why I stopped Posting Under the Influence. ;-)
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
understood but you use the Vezzini arguement
and I reply with a standard Inigo Montoya response…..
I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....
Wait --
Reynolds rapper killed your father??
How is Tiger Woods like a baby seal?
They both get clubbed by Scandinavians.
I noted that his alias
on the other boards was Count Rugen…
I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....
Max is gonna be a star one day
I guess Ima just have to wait and see how this all unfolds on the field. And for the record….Garland was a douche
I laugh until my head comes off.
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