Line up construction

He’s an RBI producer, so you want to put him in a position to drive in runs every time he comes to the plate, not just 35-40% of the time in the first inning when Conor gets on

Actually, that’s exactly what I want, because Mark doesnt hit as well first go round v starters. They’re not big samples, but I think there may be something behind the idea of a slugger who generally struggles to make contact, honing in on the ball as the game goes on. I cant prove causality, but Mark’s career to date numbers are consistent with the idea, and it was more pronounced last year. Anyway, the theory is to kind of “get Mark out of the way” in the first, without dooming rallies (ie striking out with runners on and two outs) – to minimize the impact of his weaker early-game hitting. He’s gonna strike out, but we can manipulate the outs/runners on “state” to the team’s advantage – at least in the first inning.

We ranked dead last in the NL in scoring first inning runs (after park adjs) in 09, which is kinda remarkable when one considers a) the nice job Lopez did reaching and the strong seasons from Upton/Reynolds, and b) that there are some really crappy lineups in the NL. I think one of the reasons it happened was the way we positioned our best hitters and “allowed” hitters like Drew and Young to infiltrate the top half. And to be fair, we didnt really know about Montero.

I usually imagine OBP guys in the second-hole, which Reynolds isn’t always the best at.

Mark’s career OBP is slightly higher than Drew’s, quite a bit higher (349 v 320) last year. Beggers cant be choosers :-)

I think this is a case where you may have out-thought yourself La Russa-style, ’Hacks.

Maybe, but if our in game managers “out-thought” themselves like LaRussa I’d be ecstatic.

the common argument is that [Drew’s] splits at leadoff are so much better than anywhere else, even last season.

Not true. His leadoff splits are good, but his splits are best at the back of the order. I’m not saying that to suggest he’ll automatically hit better back there, but more to challenge the idea there’s something magical about him and the one spot. He’s hit well elsewhere. If he hits like 2008, then great, he can bat anywhere he darn well pleases. But I dont have confidence in that. Do you? His career OBP is .326 and he doesnt steal much. We are not a strong hitting team and I imagine will only field four guys projected over .800 OPS – I’d like to see those guys (Conor, MR, Montero, Upton) get most of the ABs upfront, instead of SD.

if you think he’s not projected to be a top-4 hitter, how does moving him back strengthen the back of the lineup? Just curious more than anything…

Depends where he bats. Based on his career stats, he may not be much of a five hitter, but I’d rather have a subpar five than a subpar two. But he’s a decent seven hole, right? And a helluva nine. He’s also more of a pop guy than a get on base guy and I suspect that may optimize runs more if he’s in the bottom half. You’ve kinda suggested (via OBP) that Mark doesnt look like a two hitter. Drew looks like a two hitter (or a one) and I think that’s kind of a problem. Appearances can be deceiving. We dont necessarily need a swift middle infielder (or fast black guy) setting the table for the best hitters on the team. I’d argue we need our next to the best hitters setting the table for our best right and left handed batters. Right now I feel that’s JUp and Miguel.

Snyder would be better defensively at first?

I didn’t see Ryal’s UZR from last year, but I doubt that.

First is generally the easiest IF position to play defensively.

Best lineup: Jackson-Upton-Johnson-Reynolds-Montero-Delgado-Drew-Pitcher-Young scores 4.85 as well.

So there’s essentially no improvement. This is because:

a) CHONE loves Roberts and projects him to have an OBP higher than Johnson
b) CHONE hates Delgado, projecting him at .244/.320/.447. I guess that’s the injury/aging discount
c) the Delgado/Johnson number’s are not park adjusted and they would improve significantly if they were projected to play at Chase (like the others)

I didn’t think CHONE loved anyone.

which is implied above but I forgot to bullet, is that the optimal orders very rarely bat Upton and Reynolds back to back. That appears true for both me and paqs. For me, i think it was 2 or 3 out of thirty. And get this…the least optimal orders, scoring around four and a half, virtually always batted ‘em back to back. Granted, they were eighth and ninth, pitcher leading off, etc, so not very practical, but I really think there’s something empirical to this idea of ’splitting up" our two big power hitters.

rgds
TLR

There are all sorts of reasons to expect Mark to improve defensively at first base, if given a chance.

1. Your UZR sample is so small (218 defensive innings) as to carry little predictive value. Brandon Allen had a -20.6 UZR/150 over 250 innings. Are you saying we should also ditch the idea of Allen at first, based on such horrible defensive evidence? Your logic practically demands it.
2. Larger seasonal UZR’s bounce all over the place. Even their predictive value can be dicey.
3. First base was a brand new position for Reynolds. It’s logical to assume that an athlete of his caliber and work ethic would improve over time at baseball’s least demanding position.
4. Mark’s primary defensive liability has been throwing, a virtual non issue at first.

I’m not saying Mark played particularly well there, but your implication his potential at first is so bleak, demonstrates a lack of analytic perspective and imagination.

Similarly, on the lineups. Of course L/R and a host of other splits matter, and any mgr worth a hoot will try to understand and exploit them on a game by game basis. But that doesnt invalidate the lineup tool or make my findings on internal lineup dynamics “fall down”. Nobody remotely suggested that any of these ‘optimal’ lineups be fielded for 162 games, without regard to game circumstances.

We’re saying the preliminary, general data may tell us half a dozen things about ARI lineup optimization – some of which we know or feel confident about (CJ leads off, Mark cleanup, etc)and some of which is counterintuitive (ie Upton second, CY or Abreu third, etc). I’m curious. Do you find the data on Upton batting second at all interesting? Or just one meaningless, amorphous blob, to be categorically dismissed?

Not anymore, I’m off till Monday! :)

As for the splits, how many spots do you think we’re going to platoon? I’d say we can pencil in CoJack (if he’s healthy), Drew, Upton, Reynolds and probably Johnson now for full time duty. Montero won’t be platooned as such, but since he’s a catcher and our backup is good, I’d sit him against most lefties.

The only thing we’d like to avoid is Parra and Allen facing lefties.