2009 Draftee Report Card, Part Three: Outfielders and Catchers
by Zephon on Dec 2, 2009 1:00 PM EST
in Minor Leagues
84 comments
The grades we used in this article are relative to the league average statistics and the average age of the players in the league that the player was in. In addition, each player's draft position and personal strengths and weaknesses are taken into account (i.e. how they were supposed to do). It's best to remember that the draft is generally a crap-shoot - you can never know which guys will make it and which won't. Some players' careers may be lost to injuries, others just may never be able to make the adjustments to the more advanced levels of hitting or pitching. If two or three players out of a draft become solid major leaguers, the draft is generally thought a success.
It's not that uncommon for a team to have a draft where none of the players drafted have any significant impact on the major league club (just ask Pittsburgh). It happens. It's why the draft is 50 rounds long and teams have 25 players on their big-league rosters. If one major league player out of this draft became an all-star and a handful of them became regular big-league players, the organization got a good haul. So when you see these grades, imagine that they're in a perfect world, where there's no injuries, and players don't regress. These are absolute best-case scenarios. We can't predict the future.
IHSB: The way to describe the first pro season for the most oddly named man alive (Allen Lorenz Pollock = A.J. Pollock?) is solid but unspectacular, which is disappointing given that the organization expected him to rip through Mid-A South Bend given that Midwest League Competition wasn't foreign to Pollock, given that Notre Dame plays an exhibition game against the SilverHawks at the beginning of each season. He’ll nevertheless rise to Visalia because the organization wants to push him through quickly after a standout career and Notre Dame, and his age requires this for his top-prospect standing. Still a top-ten guy for the organization with his tools (speed, good contact bat, fielding, decent arm, light power) and occasional encouraging flashes of brilliance, but needs to show more consistency (or maybe some BABIP regression - his number for South Bend was .303, which, given his speed, may be low for Pollock), especially since the California League, which he’ll be entering, is a hitter’s paradise (although not quite to the proportions of the PCL). The acquisition of Tony Abreu likely means that the middle infield of the future is jammed up with Abreu, Taylor Harbin, and Pedro Ciriaco, so the once-possible move to second-base, which, in my unprofessional opinion, would have made Pollock's bat more valuable and saved outfield spots for power hitters, Justin Upton, and Chris Young's contract, now becomes nearly a complete a non-possibility unless the team starts to clear a couple prospects for major-leaguers at next year's or 2011's trade deadline. Good news with the stay in the outfield for Pollock is that his defense there is plus, as can be derived from his tool set. It can be thought of this way: you can get a plus bat with solid defense at second, or a solid bat with plus defense in center field. Grade: C+ (Short-term: C, Long-term: B-)
So the major-league outfield appears set for quite a while, and it's a good thing that it is, as there really isn't much talent other than Gillespie in the upper-levels of the minors ready to fill in. AAA, if Gillespie is headed to the major-league roster, will contain no outfielders of note, unless Romero, Cyle Hankerd, and Chris Rahl put a banana in your pants. AA will be where some of the higher-upside guys in the system start next season, most noteably Collin Cowgill and Ollie "Lightning" Linton, of completely different skill sets, but equally potent. Cowgill is a good power hitter despite his 5'9'' frame, and can get on base. Linton has almost no home run power, although he used his ridiculous speed to accumulate 28 doubles and a whopping 10 triples last season, reached base at a .394 mark, and stole 28 bases. Further, Linton's speed makes him a plus defender in center, and he plays with the kind of reckless abandon that fans used to love about Byrnes.
They may ready for the majors just in the nick of time, as Cowgill, a more advanced hitter than Linton, could step in to backup/platoon with Parra when Co-Jack is a free agent in 2012, and Linton could be ready to start when CY is a free agent in 2014 (team has option for 2015 season). But the team clearly didn't want to count on Cowgill has their only plan to replace Jackson, especially given the questions surrounding whether or not Jackson will return to his old levels of production, so it decided to use a few of its earlier picks in the draft on college outfielders with advanced bats and tool sets who could rise quickly and provide insurance for the outfield. Then, to add a high-risk, high-reward outfield prospect to the lower ranks of the system, the team picked tool-shed Keon Broxton after solidifying the quick-rising ranks of the system.
Now, to move on to the catchers. While usually a difficult position to solidify for many years, catcher has been a fairly stable position for the Diamondbacks throughout their history. While we haven't had enough luck to find a Jorge Posada or Joe Mauer with a plus bat for the position for a dozen years, and we played too well last season to bank on Bryce Harper in the 2010 draft, we have been able to get six years (and counting, for now) from Chris Snyder, five years from Damian Miller, four years from Kelly Stinnett (although in two stints with the team, from '98-'00 and '05), and one real stop-gap starter in Johnny Estrada. Further, we've even received some good consistency with backups, from Robby Hammock to Rod Barajas to Chad Moeller. And, even though Snyder's clock in Arizona may be winding down, it appears that we have ourselves set at the position for many years once again with Miguel Montero's breakout season and a good cameo from John Hester, who appears to be a fairly capable backup for years to come.
So, even though the system lacks any real high-upside catchers outside of 20-year-old Rossmel Perez, especially with the lackluster seasons just put in by former Sandwich-round pick Ed Easley and Rule 5 draftee James Skelton, the team didn't need to spend a high pick on a backstop. However, it is important to note that minor-league catchers are very important commodities. It is in the minor leagues that catchers begin to actually call games for pitchers, and the way a catcher handles a top prospect pitcher may have a huge impact on that pitcher's development. Therefore, it is crucial to have a solid group of organizational catchers who can call a good game for your pitchers and utilize each pitcher's strengths. So, while the team had the opportunity to address other organizational needs first, it chose to select Tyson Van Winkle in the tenth round, and signed two catchers taken in the eighteenth and forty-fourth rounds, respectively.
Zephon: With Justin Upton manning right field for as long as we can hopefully hold on to him, and Chris Young signed till 2013, left field is going to have a lot of guys competing for the job the next few years until someone completely locks down the position. Unfortunately for Marc Krauss, there's already Conor Jackson, Gerardo Parra, and A.J. Pollock ahead of him competing for the job. In addition, that doesn't even factor in a guy like Keon Broxton who's less projectionable, or guys like Borchering who may end up getting moved to the outfield. Getting past that, Marc Krauss put up a very nice season in South Bend, with an above average batting, on base, slugging, and isolated slugging percentages. I'd like to see a few more homers out of him next season honestly, all though I don't mind a high BA doubles hitter (see Conor Jackson). He's got a very solid almost 3:2 K:BB ratio, not too many strikeouts. For the season, Krauss was 21, a touch younger than league average. Hopefully he'll be able to move through the system quickly. Grade B+ (Short term: B Long Term: B+)
IHSB: There were two big concerns about Marc Krauss going into his first professional season. First was how he would handle the transition from aluminum bats and crappy, in-conference pitching to wood bats and good, professional-level pitching. Welp (misspelling intended for dramaticish effect), so much for that little dilemma. Second was where, and how well, could he play defense. Sadly, that one still hasn't been quite figured out. Nonetheless, he raked in his time in Mid-A fresh out of college, so it wouldn't be at all far-fetched if he ends up mashing the hitter-friendly California League and ends up in Mobile by the end of next season. Still, it's in cases like this where being an American League team would be really helpful. Especially since the position it appears he is most likely going to end up playing, left field (since right field is currently and hopefully forever-ly manned by a man named Upton), is home to Conor Jackson and Gerardo Parra (who is only going to be 23 next season to Krauss' 22) in the majors and guys like Cole Gillespie, Collin Cowgill, and South Bend teammate A.J. Pollock in the minors. Could definitely see this being a high-quality bat used as a trade chip in a year or two. Grade: B- (Short-term B, Long-term: C+)
Round 3, Pick 95 - Keon Broxton
IHSB: Although it's worth noting that Zephon has a moderately unwarranted solid man-crush on Keon Broxton, it's not like Keon Broxton is bad. Quite the contrary - he plays a solid center field, has wheels, hits for power, and strikes out a ton. That's right, ladies and gentlemen, we've found Chris Young again. He's just 19 years old, just finished slugging all over the Pioneer League, and will definitely be in line for a slow path through Yakima next season to work on those on-base skills. It'll take a lot of work, but if this guy figures out that his bat doesn't need to go below his knees or above the letters, he'll do some special things. Grade: B+ (Short-term: B, Long-Term: B+)
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Hurray! More Reports!
Great job, as always. I eagerly look forward to Wednesdays now, along with the productivity devil sitting on my shoulder.
A side note about “Moneyball” philosophy. I believe, though am no expert, that the idea behind money ball was that OBP was undervalued at the time the book, or idea or whatever came out. Hence it was considered an untapped resource from which to get good, cheap production. However, I think teams have really woken up to OBP, as well as other more advanced metrics, in the last decade.
If anything, I feel like the importance of batting average has begun to be undervalued from where it used to be.
Anyway, great reading on this batch of prospects. I’m particularly excited about the speed displayed in the outfield. That’s one tool that plays well in NL West parks, and never slumps.
You Moneyball note
Is pretty much spot-on. Billy Beane was the first to note that, and by being a moron and writing a book about it to get a movie deal, he screwed his own career up in a sense (or at least made it much more difficult). But the idea of looking for the undervalued statistic (and its hand-in-hand partner, the surplus of a valueable commodity) is what he was getting at. This year, I see a couple places where this may be the case. The surplus is in relief arms, specifically there being a bunch of closer-type guys (Wagner just signed, then you have Valverde, Soriano, Gonzalez, etc.) with few teams really looking for closers. Somebody will get a short-term deal on a desperation signing from one of those guys (or a guy from the tier just below that one, chock full of Brandon Lyon-types) for pennies per dollar of value. Also, I still think that despite Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik’s best efforts, defense is still undervalued in baseball. The D-Backs are decent about valuing D, though, as it’s the only reason we’re thinking of retaining Augie Ojeda even though he couldn’t hit a softball off of a tee.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 3, 2009 4:23 AM EST up reply actions
Great points, both.
You’re right about the arms available out there and we certainly should leap if there are good values to be had. Brandon Lyon I think is one player we could definitely see back in a Dbacks uniform and he’d certainly be a more than adequate set up man.
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8
As much as I'd love Lyon
I don’t think we ought to fall into the trap of targeting one. Relief arms are so variant in their production that it’s nearly impossible to know which one will actually be the best of the crop, and it’s best to simply wait for the group to diminish and pick off one of the higher-quality stragglers for a cheaper price.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 3, 2009 12:37 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed. I just think there is a high possibility Lyon will be one of the last ones standing as part of that second tier you alluded to.
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8
Very possible.
Also, I remember Lyon being willing to take a pay-cut last year to stay with us. While it didn’t work out then because of some of our more onerous needs, and the fact that we didn’t up the payroll much last year (unlike this year, when we’re adding some financial wiggle-room), perhaps if there isn’t any bitterness there we could convince him to do the same. We’d obviously have to swallow some pride and do some begging, but I don’t think we hit Lyon in the rear with the door as he was on his way out.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 3, 2009 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah
If only we hadn’t blown $2M on Heilman, we could have waited for the price to drop on one of the top end closers you named and nabbed them.
The price of any of those guys
Won’t fall THAT low. Plus we needed two arms anyways, and with the bullpen arms likely costing around $3.5M each (at lowest, let’s remember how good these guys are), and our need for a fourth starter ($6-7M) that falls perfectly-ish with $10M we have left.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 3, 2009 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
That $10M being IIRC...
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 3, 2009 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
And what I meant by this
Was that with Heilman being cheaper than any of those other relief arms are going to be, the money we save is going to fit in with the rest of the budget pretty well so we can piece our roster together within our money constraints.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 3, 2009 12:58 PM EST up reply actions
Price of relievers
I just posted this in the FA thread, but the Type A designation might kill some of those relievers. It happened to Cruz last year. And in my opinion, with AZ’s protected pick, I think we might want to think about being a player for Soriano or Gonzalez or someother Type A who will be forced to take less money than what they are worth.
Another suggestion from the other thread; Offer one of those guys a 1 year deal at reasonable money, with the stipulation that we can’t offer arbitration next year, ala Orlando Cabrera in the 09 season. They would re-enter a smaller pool of relievers next year without the anchor of a top draft pick weighing them down.
by Counsellmember on Dec 3, 2009 1:48 PM EST up reply actions
Question: I just saw on the Polanco article that it mentioned that b/c the Phillies didn’t offer him arbitration (include it in his contract?), they didn’t lose their 1st round pick when they signed him (he’s a Type A FA). Anybody know the rules on this? Could we do the same sort of thing with one of these pitchers?
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8
Tiger's choice
Not Woods, but Detroit.
The choice to offer arbitration belongs to the player’s old team, in this case the Tigers. Detroit opted not to offer arbitration, which is done for a variety of reasons. A such, there was no draft pick to be given up if he signs with another team, which he has now done.
It’s confusing because there are two types of arbitration; one for free agents, and one for players with between 3-6 years of service time. The “Type A and Bs” only apply to the FAs.
At this time of year, teams must choose whether or not they will offer arbitration to their free agents. If they do offer, the player has about 2 weeks to decide whether to accept arbitration, or turn it down.
If the player accepts, most often the team and player will “argue” over the price of a 1 year contract, which is usually a bit more than the last year’s. This is usually why teams decide NOT to offer arbitration; they fear the player will accept and come back for more than they were willing to pay.
If the player declines, he goes out and looks for a new team. However, if he is a Type A or B he has strings attached. A Type A will cost the new team a first or second round pick in the draft, depending on where they finished the year. That pick goes to the free agent’s old team.
The old team also gets a sandwich pick, wedged in between the 1st and 2nd rounds. This pick is generated from nothingness, it does not come from any team. A Type B player rewards his old team with this pick as well.
There are a ton of intricacies with this system, but it’s pretty fascinating to attempt to figure out. Hope that helped.
by Counsellmember on Dec 3, 2009 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
Well done
You covered all the bases here.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 3, 2009 9:18 PM EST up reply actions
Not to open old wounds...
But sites are reporting now that the Braves are close to signing Saito for 3M.
If that happens, it puts the Heilman trade of 2M + (non) prospects in perspective.
Heilman= career 4.22 ERA,1.34 WHIP
Saito = career 2.05 ERA. 1.01 WHIP
by Counsellmember on Dec 3, 2009 3:23 PM EST up reply actions
Well, that’s helpful, but far from the full story. Saito is nearly 40 and blew out his arm a year and a half ago.
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8
Definately not the whole story
But I think it’s a killer move for Atlanta. Even with the arm troubles, he’s averaged 60 INN a year during his big league career.
This is the type of move I was hoping for to improve the bullpen.
by Counsellmember on Dec 3, 2009 4:58 PM EST up reply actions
As our budget it now
It was $12M prior to Heilman. Heilman is $2M, so we have $10M for a 4th and a bullpen arm. Free agent bullpen arm will range about $3M-$3.5M. If we had spent an extra million, million-and-a-half on another bullpen arm, that would mean we’d have $5.5-$6M for a starter, rather than $6.5-$7M. That’s the difference between a quality fourth starter and a fringe fourth starter.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 6, 2009 12:37 AM EST up reply actions
Well...
I hear what you’re saying. But I’d rather have one Soriano type rather than Heilman + a 3M random reliever. We’ve still got talent down in that pen, and I’d rather add an 8th or 9th inning stud (of which supply seems to be outstriping demand in the current market).
Then again, to me the 1 or 2 million dollar scrounging is silly. We should be able to free up more money than that. Are you telling me NO ONE will pay us 3M for EB? NO ONE?
by Counsellmember on Dec 6, 2009 6:04 PM EST up reply actions
You also have forgotten one thing.
A Soriano type will cost us a draft pick (second-round, as our first-round is protected), while a Lyon-type (the $3-$3.5 M sort) will not cost us any (the sandwich-round pick the other team would get is conjured from nothingness, defying the fundamental laws of physics). For a team like us with a fairly fractured farm system and who needs to thrive off of the system, that’s pretty key.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 6, 2009 7:10 PM EST up reply actions
Didn't forget it, but worth noting
This is the year to get one of those Type A FAs, when we give up only a second round pick. I agree completely, AZ can;t afford to be throwing away draft picks willy-nilly, but there are only so many ways to get top talent to come to your team.
And I see the Type A status as potentially working for us. Soriano “types” are going to have to lower their asking prices quite a bit. The Second Round pick we give up this year for a one year Soriano deal could be turned into a First Round Pick AND a Sandwich pick the following year.
by Counsellmember on Dec 6, 2009 7:17 PM EST up reply actions
a couple things
First – a lot of these guys might accept arbitration for the higher salaries in this plush market, like Soriano is rumored to be considering. Second – if we’re going to get a guy like that within our budget, even prior to Heilman, there would have had to have been that no-arbitration clause you mentioned, eliminating draft pick compensation.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 7, 2009 2:34 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
reports are saying we are...
But I’d rather have another bullpen arm, personally.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 7, 2009 2:31 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Well, yes
But a great bullpen is what fueled ‘07. And I’m hoping for some bounce-back seasons at the plate from CY, Co-Jack, and Drew.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 1:13 AM EST up reply actions
Actually
Luck was what fueled ‘07. And while those three will probably bounce back to some extent, Reynolds, Upton and Montero will probably regress. The offense isn’t playoff caliber.
Well...
I’ll settle for a compromise of luck and a great bullpen. The ‘pen did yeoman’s work that year. I don’t see Upton regressing at all… Perhaps Montero, although let’s remember how bad his first-half was. Reynolds…. yeah, you got me there. But who knows, really?
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 2:42 AM EST up reply actions
Look at these numbers
Year – ERA – FIP – xFIP
2009 4.61 4.02 4.48
2008 4.09 4.09 4.22
2007 3.95 4.32 4.62
If you outperform your FIP by 40 and your xFIP by 70, you’re more lucky than good, and in for a great deal of regression. That regression came the very next year, and even though our bullpen was significantly better in every controllable facet in ’08, the results went south.
Allowing 1 run when you’re up 2, or 2 runs when you’re up three, and 0 runs when you’re up 1 is not a talent, most of it is just luck and random variance.
Well-played
That puts a depressing damper on the ’07 magic.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 10, 2009 3:19 AM EST up reply actions
It also helps explain
Why we flopped in ’08 with better talent on the team.
And talk about this year. Wow. Pecota’s normalized standings have us as an 80 win team. That’s 10 wins we could have had if not for luck, clutch-related issues etc. Add to that 10 wins above replacement lost with Webb and Jackson, and we could very well have had a 90 win season.
I know, I know, I’ll let myself out :(
You have made me
Into a VERY Sad Panda.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 11, 2009 12:57 AM EST up reply actions
fantabulous.
I was a bit surprised to see the organization go with two rather polished OFs early in the draft given the relatively solid/young position our OF is in. But, then again, if you think a player is the best guy out there, you ought to draft him and worry about organizational log jams later.
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8
Good work!
Good job again, guys. My only issue – maybe I’m used to grades from John Sickels or Kevin Goldstein, but your grades seem a little too high to me. For me, players like Broxton haven’t done enough to earn a B/B+ yet.
Yeah,
Perhaps our grades are a bit high (I’ll admit I tend to stay around a B-/B average rather than a C average as the system is supposed to imply), but Broxton just slugged .474. That’s pretty impressive…
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 3, 2009 4:15 AM EST up reply actions
It is...
…particularly in the upper levels. But from these reports it sounds like we’ve got a good crop of guys in the lower levels. And a nice blend of high probability along with high upside players.
Plus, is it too early to start talking about the #6 pick in next years draft? :)
by Counsellmember on Dec 3, 2009 12:09 PM EST up reply actions
Probably
Because it’s not the #1 pick, which is the only certain one at this point. :-P
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 3, 2009 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
It might be interesting
to see about that #1 pick next year.
Remember, it goes to the Nationals again, who just paid a boatload for Strausberg. Will they be willing to go wild again in back to back years?
Anyway, he wont make it to us, that’s pretty certain. (I assume we’re talking about Harper)
by Counsellmember on Dec 3, 2009 1:42 PM EST up reply actions
Yes.
It’s Bryce Harper. They’re taking him. He’s a prospect of Upton-like caliber. They’ll spend.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 3, 2009 9:27 PM EST up reply actions
And yes,
Our best prospects are a combination of major-league guys who are being given shots for everyday/rotation/bullpen jobs this year, guys in the lower levels of the minors we just picked, and Jarrod Parker. Pretty depressing.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 3, 2009 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
#27 in Baseball America
Here is the link to Baseball America’s rankings of farm systems:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/12/01/farm.systems/index.html
Ugh
Well, at least we don’t really need many position players for the next 2-3 years, since we’re sorted at most spots. Here’s to the 2009 draft coming through by the time the likes of Drew and Reynolds hit free-agency.
"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil
Do you think
the mention of AZ’s “conservative” drafting philosophy is a thing of the past, or represents current thinking.
A lot of our success in the 09 draft was simply due to the number of picks we had.
by Counsellmember on Dec 3, 2009 3:25 PM EST up reply actions
Seems to me (Zephon, Jim, or IHSB would have a more educated opinion on this), that we continue to employ a paired approach when we draft — coupling seasoned collegiate guys with high upside, but raw HS talent.
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8
We're remarkably conservative
In taking arms. We seem to have a bit of a phobia of high-school arms, with Jarrod Parker being the most, and only, notable exception. College arms are abound in our draft history. The first part of the pitchers article coming next will detail this, but our first pitchers selected are, by a vast majority, typically college kids.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 3, 2009 9:34 PM EST up reply actions
It wasn't precisely
A blowout. When I think blowout I think a guy throws a pitch and his arm instantly just explodes. Maybe just my propensity for flair coming through though. :)
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 4, 2009 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
+1
for some reason, I hate telling people I blew out my knee…I just see an explosion and a knee cap flying through the air.
by emilylovesthedbacks on Dec 5, 2009 4:04 AM EST up reply actions
Dan Haren trade
I think the Dan Haren trade had as much to do with the farm system slipping as “conservative” drafting. Losing Chris Carter, Brett Anderson, Carlos Gonzalez, and Aaron Cunningham was a big loss. Recent trades that brought back Allen, Gillespie, and Mercedes helped bring some talent back to the upper minors.
Made sense at the time
Reigning NL West champions, just been one series away from going to the WS, Haren looked like the piece that would put us over the top, so we had to go for it. In the light of the past couple of seasons, of course, seems we jumped the gun with regard to our window of opportunity.
"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil
by Jim McLennan on Dec 4, 2009 10:35 AM EST up reply actions
It made sense to go for Haren
Of course!
But we paid way, way more than we should have. Look at the quantity and quality of players that Cliff Lee went to Philly for. Four, not six, and none of them with the ceilings of Anderson and Gonzalez. We should have held to at least one of those two, and I’m sure the 5 player package would still have gotten us Haren.
There is some research here about valuating prospects for trade purposes. There’s plenty of math to do but I think it’ll just be another confirmation that we gave up too much.
And here comes the math
First of all, the values of prospects according to research are listed nicely here.
According to the BA rankings published before the 2008 season, CarGo was a top 25 hitter and Anderson was a top 50 pitcher. Cunningham and Carter were grade B hitters according to Sickels, Smith and Robertson were C pitchers who cancelled each other out, and Eveland was not ranked as a prospect and there was no reason to believe he was anything other than replacement level (no value).
So, to put it all together, we paid $25.1M + $15.9M + 2*$5.5M = $52M. So we paid $52 million in prospects to get Haren.
Now, about Haren. He was a 5 WAR pitcher at a time, cost controlled for 3 years ($16.25M). 15 WAR is worth $67.5M which means we had about $51.25M of surplus value.
Wow, I never expected it to be this close. I have to say, if the FO expected Haren to improve with the move to the NL, which is reasonable, it was a pretty good move by us.
Here's your difference:
Haren had control on the cheap, the other teams were getting guys on leases (Lee, Sabathia) or signing guys to huge contract extensions the previous team could not afford (Santana). Those guys HAD to be dealt, Haren did not have to be dealt, had control, and thus had a premium.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 6, 2009 12:45 AM EST up reply actions
Well
Lee wasn’t exactly on a lease, they have him for this season too. And he’s a Cy Young winner.
Still, Haren’s three years of cheap control makes the deal worth it, just about. Plus, if he keeps it up, this contract extension we signed him to is going to be a steal for us.
shoot you're right
Perhaps I was just hoping Lee was gone from the NL. Psyched to see him in NY in 2011… Pettite likely retiring, hole in the rotation, calm winter this year, can’t you just feel it already? I do. Feels like nausea…
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 7, 2009 2:43 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I loved the move
That was an aggressive move, and put us in line to win for multiple years. Bad things happened between then and now, and it may have some to do with overrating our youth. But Haren has definately kept up his end of the bargain.
Also, at the time I felt we were paying a “fair” price for an Ace pitcher. Recently the price of an Ace seems to have gone down; Santana, Lee, Peavy, CC all seemed to cost less considering the money and years involved. Ah hindsight.
by Counsellmember on Dec 4, 2009 2:52 PM EST up reply actions
It's hard to say that
When you get a Cy Young contender. Also, all of those guys have a ways to go in their development before they’re in Haren’s stratosphere as far as ability. Gonzalez is probably the closest to that, but he also is in the OF, where we did, and still do, have a surplus.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 4, 2009 12:16 PM EST up reply actions
Anderson
Haren IS very good, so it’s not a bad trade. More a case of trading the future for the present.
I think Brett Anderson will be the first to reach Haren’s level. He had a WAR of 3.8 last year (Haren was 6.1), but I think he’ll be an ace within a year or two.
Some anonymous thoughts given to me regarding Krauss
Take a second look at those doubles totals and spread them out over the course of a regular MiLB season’s ab’s. Those numbers are extremely impressive.
At age 21, a 9.58 ab/2b ratio is extremely impressive in the power department. Consider his age, and those doubles will start to turn into mass amounts of HR’s as his body develops.
By comparison, Brad Hawpe had a 10.79 rate in his debut season at age 21 with similar numbers over a longer period of time. It’s tough to judge the power potential of guys below age 24 by just looking at hr’s, slg, and iso.
So if you give Krauss a full seasons worth of at bats(let’s say 425, which would be a full minor league season), you have a guy who’d hit 44 doubles. Once you take that figure, the .174 ISO and .855 OPS, it’s clear that the power is already there. Just need to wait to see some of those doubles turn into homers, and once that happens, Krauss will rocket up the top prospect lists.
This is in response to my statement of Krauss at this point being a high BA doubles hitter. I think you can certainly say that Krauss has the potential to develop into a serious power hitter. I heard one scout say that krauss will end up somewhere in between Jack Cust and Adam Dunn in terms of power. I could see that happening, all though I don’t see Krauss becoming as much of K machine as Dunn or Mark Reynolds.
IHSB and I have had some debate over where to rank Krauss on the top prospect lists. To IHSB, he’s at number 25-30. I split my top 30 list into two lists that have the pitchers and hitters listed separately. Originally I had Krauss ranked as a top 15 hitter, putting him around the same place overall, but I think now that I’ve delved deeper into his stats, I think he should be ranked higher. What are everyone elses thoughts on this? Where would you rank Krauss with the rest of the prospects?
"When fascism comes to this country, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross" - Upton Sinclair
130 PA
is a really small sample size, so I don’t think we can extrapolate much from that. That said, here are some thoughts.
1) Looks to me like the problem with him is not his bat, but his defense. He looks and moves like a DH, and TotalZone has him at -5 in his limited playing time, which, given a full season, is Adam Dunn territory.
2) His batting average was fueled by a high BABIP (.359 according to FanGraphs). Two things which correlate well with BABIP is speed and LD%. He’s not fast and his LD% according to StatCorner was only 12.2%. This tells me he won’t likely have BABIPs over .300 as he meets higher quality pitching. In fact, he’s putting 56.7% of his balls on the ground, which is Ichiro/Castillo territory. Of course, like I said, this is only 130 PA so it probably means nothing.
3) On the plus side, he has a good eye, he put up good numbers in a pitcher’s league and some of those double WILL turn into homers, so we might have a valuable trade chip in the future (or, another first baseman? maybe?)
Krauss
I did a prospect ranking at the Dbacksvenom.com blog, and ranked Krauss #8. I don’t really see him as a Cust/Dunn hitter – more like a Lyle Overbay, maybe.
yikes
That’s awfully high.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 7, 2009 2:46 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I'd rank him in the top 15 hitting prospects..
and somewhere between 10 and 20 out of all the prospects. I know IHSB has him ranked a lot lower than me though. :P
"When fascism comes to this country, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross" - Upton Sinclair
One of the few...
The reason I rank Krauss so high is that he’s one of the few hitters in the organization that actually has a good offensive track record – he’s hit well in South Bend, the Cape Cod league, and the NCAAs. Still a long way to go, but more impressive to me that just having nice high school stats.
I agree
BA has him ranked as our number 8 prospect…
"When fascism comes to this country, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross" - Upton Sinclair
Oh here's a link to the list
http://taoofsteve.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/12/d-backs_top_10_prospects.html
"When fascism comes to this country, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross" - Upton Sinclair
"Interesting to note that six of those players were from last year's draft, another indication that the D-backs pulled in quite a haul."
That, and the system was really poor before the draft.
Undervaluing defense
Not just in the major leagues. :-P
Just an opinion.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 1:13 AM EST up reply actions
Some more thoughts on Broxton, doing the same thing I did with Krauss....
In a full minor league season’s worth of at bats(425), you have a guy who’d have hit 17 Doubles, 14 triples, 17HRS, and 10 stolen bases. With Broxton’s speed, he’s going to have a lot more triples than doubles. He already has a ton of HR power. I can’t wait to see what Broxton does with a full season’s worth of at bats in Visalia. Broxton is a real interesting case honestly. I think he’s going to end up being pretty damned good, he just needs to figure out the strike zone or bring his batting average up to an acceptable level. Let’s say Broxton becomes a league average defender at center, or better. Even if he doesn’t improve offensively, a 776 OPS at center with league average defense is a valuable commodity. Personally I think Broxton will improve offensively and defensively, and become basically what we expected Chris Young to become: A guy with a 250-270 batting average, who can hit 15-20 triples, 25-30 HRS, steal 20-30 bases and provide league average or better defense. Obviously I’m extremely optimistic about Broxton, but i think he has the tools to become an all star.
So questions here: What are your thoughts on Broxton? Where does he rank amongst the hitters in the Diamondbacks farm system?
"When fascism comes to this country, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross" - Upton Sinclair
This is a case
Where a scout can tell you much more about a guy than some stats. He has some good things going for him, like the power and speed, but if you K 35% of the time against rookie league pitchers, and walk only 6.5%, it has to raise some alarm bells.
I’m not sure how much these things can change. I mean, he can probably become more selective at the plate, raise his BB% a bit and lower his K% a bit, but it will probably cost him some of those home runs.
Let’s wait and see how much he improves and how he handles improved pitching.
I completely agree
Broxton is a promising player, but he does have some big red flags on him, mainly his plate discipline. But I’m optimistic and think he has a ton of talent.
"When fascism comes to this country, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross" - Upton Sinclair
Does anyone know where he's going to end up next year?
South Bend perhaps?
"When fascism comes to this country, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross" - Upton Sinclair
I wish I knew
I don’t think Pollock deserves to start in AA, so I’m guessing he’ll play center in Visalia, which means Broxton has South Bend.
Nice idea for an article: speculate wildly about the minor league lineups for next year :)
I'll start
Reno:
C: Hester – Mercado
1B: Whitesell – Coughlin
2B: Ryal (I’m guessing he doesn’t make the team) – Hallberg
3B: Sosa
SS: Ciriaco
CF: Frey
COF: Romero – Gillespie (if he doesn’t make the team) – Hankerd – Rahl
These are the internal options, I’m sure we’ll get some Quad A guys to fill up the roster, and it’s the right thing to do, in case of injuries, and what do you know, you might luck into a guy that has everyday potential like Roberts last year.
My biggest questions
Are what happens to the ’09 draft guys. Here is my guess:
Borchering – Hi-A Visalia 3B
Pollock – Hi-A Visalia CF
Davidson – Mid-A South Bend 3B
Owings – Mid-A South Bend SS
Krauss – Hi-A Visalia RF
Broxton – Mid-A South Bend CF
Wheeler – AA-Mobile 1B
Nick – Mid-A South Bend 2B
Goldschmidt – Hi-A Visalia 1B
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Dec 8, 2009 1:18 AM EST up reply actions
Interesting idea for an article Paqs
I might steal it. Of course, i’ve already got a ton of stuff on my plate to write. Prospect smackdowns(comparing similar prospects in our division), prospect spotlights, top prospect list.
"When fascism comes to this country, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross" - Upton Sinclair
Also,
he needs to take a break from writing…I haven’t quite gotten back to the baseball obsession yet. ;-)
What's your name? Sandwich. What's your first name? TUNA.
by emilylovesthedbacks on Dec 7, 2009 10:25 PM EST up reply actions
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