Zephon's Top 40 Prospect list (NEW AND IMPROVED)

by C. Wesley Baier on Dec 16, 2009 8:02 PM EST

(What I really should call this is my top 19 pitchers and top 21 hitters list, but that doesn't sound as good)

Originally I was supposed to wait to post this until after the draft report was done. But I'm impatient, so I'm going to change plans a bit, and post my top prospect list today. IHSB as a much more detailed (and IMHO better) top prospect list coming up that will be posted after the last part of the draft report card is posted. I know i'm repeating my self, but like i said I'm super impatient, and I want to get this out there, so I'm going to jump the gun a bit, and post mine today. I'd like to see this thread as the "official" top prospect discussion thread, but I don't care if that happens or not. If you're aware of any top prospect lists out there, link to them in this thread.

Before we begin, I have to begin with one statement: I hate writing top prospect lists. They are the most arbitrary thing you can write about baseball, period. One thing I really dislike is ranking the pitchers with the hitters. Pitchers are fragile, they can get injured, they can flame out. That's where the acronym TINSTAAPP (there is no such thing as a pitching prospect) comes from. Compared to pitching prospects, hitters are much more of a sure thing. That is why I split my list into two, one ranking hitters, the other ranking the pitchers. I think this way you have a much more accurate representation of the ranking of the players in the system.

When I rank prospects, I generally rank them based on their upside and ceiling, their production so far in the minors, along with age, physical build, and mental makeup. In addition, I factor in how close they are to the major leagues.

Right now, there really aren't a lot of high upside pitchers in the system, outside of Jarrod Parker, Michael Belfiore, and maybe Trevor Harden. The rest of the pitchers we'll really have to wait and see when it comes to their development. On the other hand, there are a lot of great hitters in the lower levels of the minors now, with a lot of upside. That's why I have more hitters than pitchers listed. So with out further ado, here's my top prospect list. (EDIT: updated list because Kennnedy isn't a prospect, swapped orders a bit, and added in Norberto and Collmentor. Added in honorable mentions.)

1. Jarrod Parker, RHP	1. Brandon Allen, 1B
2. Michael Belfiore, LHP	2. Bobby Borchering, 3B
3. Trevor Harden, RHP	3. Cole Gillespie, OF
4. Bryan Augenstein, RHP	4. Ryan Wheeler, 1b
5. Cesar Valdez, RHP	5. Chris Owings, SS
6. Eric Smith, RHP	6. A.J Pollock, CF
7. Scott Allen, RHP	7. Marc Krauss, LF LHB
8. Chase Anderson, RHP	8. David Nick, MI
9. Roque Mercedes	9. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B
10. Tom Layne, LHP	10. Collin Cowgill
11. Charles Brewer, RHP	11. Keon Broxton, CF
12. Patrick McAnaney, LHP	12. Pedro Ciriaco, MI
13. Leyson Septimo, LHP	13. Taylor Harbin, MI
14. Kevin Mulvey, RHP	14. Matt Davidson, 3B/1B
15. Wade Miley, LHP	15. Winston "Ollie" Linton, CF
16. Patrick Schuster. LHP	16.Brent Greer, SS/2B
17. Jordan Norberto, LHP	17. Matt Helm, 3B
18. Daniel Taylor, LHP	18. David Narodowski, SS
19. Keith Cantwell, RHP	19. Reynaldo Navarro, SS
20.Josh Collmentor, RHP	20. Rossmel Perez, C
	21. Jeremia Gomez, OF

Honorable mentions and/or not quite prospects: RHP Ian Kennedy, RHP Billy Buckner, C John Hester, Konrad Schmidt, 1B Sean Coughlin, RHP Braden Hagins,RHP Matt Torra, RHP Brian Budrow, and RHP Adam Worthington

You can combine the list however you like, but it's going to have the more hitters higher than the pitchers. I don't really feel like writing an entry for every single player explaining why I ranked a player where I did. When IHSB posts his top prospect list, you'll see that he has done a great job writing about each player in his list, and generally I agree with him on most of his writeups. Ask me for my thoughts on a player and I'll explain my thinking, but otherwise, I don't feel like it's worth it writing up every player on this list. If you have any questions about certain players, or why i ranked player X above player Y, just ask me. If you're wondering why I left off a player, go ahead and ask that too. I like a nice healthy debate about minor league prospects. If my list sucks, I apologize in advance. I'm just an amateur. I'm satisfied with how my list looks as it stands. I'm sure some people will nitpick some of my rankings, or wonder why I left some players off, but the honest truth is that I'm just an amateur prospect evaluator, and my rankings are NOT perfect.

So there you have it. That's my top prospect list. I hope every one enjoys it. Or learns from it. Or something....

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Comments

Just a random note...

Every player links to their fangraphs page.

I like money - Frito Pendejo

by C. Wesley Baier on Dec 16, 2009 8:03 PM EST reply actions

Nick Piecoro sez

That I should add Scott Allen… but that would make 41 players…

I like money - Frito Pendejo

by C. Wesley Baier on Dec 16, 2009 11:58 PM EST reply actions

Some honorable mentions or basically players i completely forgot about

LHP Jordan Norberto, RHP Scott Allen, C John Hester,C Konrad Schmidt,1B Sean Coughlin, RHP Braden Hagins, RHP Brian Budrow, and Adam Worthington. Some of these guys could crack the top 20 of pitchers.

I like money - Frito Pendejo

by C. Wesley Baier on Dec 17, 2009 12:06 AM EST reply actions

Oh

And MI Mark Hallberg

I like money - Frito Pendejo

by C. Wesley Baier on Dec 17, 2009 12:08 AM EST up reply actions

HESTER!

I have to admit to being curious as to where he goes.

Give me a second, I can bring this back to Trent Oeltjen.

by mrssoco on Dec 17, 2009 1:13 PM EST up reply actions

I don't really consider hester a prospect, honestly

He’s more of an also ran. Backup catchers are a dime a dozen, like speedy all glove shortstop

I like money - Frito Pendejo

by C. Wesley Baier on Dec 18, 2009 5:24 PM EST up reply actions

But cheap major-league-ready backup catchers

Who make $400k and have control are not dime a dozen in our system.

"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."

by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2009 1:00 AM EST up reply actions

Or anywhere else

by paqs on Dec 21, 2009 3:14 AM EST up reply actions

HEY!!!!

WE AGREE ON SOMETHING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This made me happy. It may be John Hester, but it’s something.

"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."

by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 21, 2009 5:59 AM EST up reply actions

Out of curiosity

What, roughly, is the dividing line between a prospect and a regular player? I’m guessing it’s somewhere between Tony Abreu and Brandon Allen’s time in the majors, but I was just curious. =)

"I can just see it: Post 'Intervention? Why would I need an intervention?' And then he'd +1 himself."

by kishi on Dec 17, 2009 1:08 AM EST reply actions

I think

125 innings pitched for a pitcher? Someone correct me if I’m wrong.

"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."

by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 17, 2009 1:13 AM EST up reply actions

125 innings pitched for a pitcher

For a position player, i believe it’s certain number of days on the major league roster. Obviously it’s smaller number than what would disqualify them for rookie status… something like no more than 25-50 games.

I like money - Frito Pendejo

by C. Wesley Baier on Dec 17, 2009 1:18 AM EST up reply actions

Rookie Eligibility

To qualify for Rookie of the Year (which is what most prospect lists use), the rule is:
1) Less than 50 IP
2) Less than 130 AB
3) Less than 45 days on the major league roster

by Amit on Dec 17, 2009 1:56 AM EST up reply actions

Ian Kennedy

By the way, Ian Kennedy technically no longer qualifies as a rookie. Good list – on the pitchers, I like Miley, Mercedes, and Septimo a little more than you. And I like Davidson a lot more among the hitters.

by Amit on Dec 17, 2009 2:00 AM EST reply actions

Interesting

I put Septimo on my list, but after all of those pitchers except Cantwell I believe, and even that was a choice I didn’t like making. Septimo totally lost control of his arm at Mobile. 18 walks in 18.1 innings is scary territory. In my opinion, he was even lucky his ERA was as low as it was. I actually have a much different pitchers list than Zephon. My hitters list is fairly similar, although with fewer ’09 guys on it.

"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."

by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 17, 2009 3:06 AM EST up reply actions

Septimo

Septimo is one of the few relievers in the system who has real “closer” stuff. He has a long, long way to go, but he has a lot of upside. He was an OF until from 2005-2007, so pitching is still very new to him

by Amit on Dec 17, 2009 3:19 AM EST up reply actions

But the downside of that

Is that he’s way old because he had to spend those years wasting away as a failed outfielder.

"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."

by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 17, 2009 1:36 PM EST up reply actions

I'll just keep banging this drum until you take notice :)

18 IP is nothing.

by paqs on Dec 17, 2009 3:46 AM EST up reply actions

When you walk 18 guys?

Sure, that means absolutely zero…

"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."

by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 17, 2009 1:36 PM EST up reply actions

YES

If you hit 100 guys in 18 innings, it means nothing. You know why? Because it’s 18 innings.

by paqs on Dec 18, 2009 2:45 AM EST up reply actions

Chien Ming Wang

April 2009
6.0 IP, 23 earned runs, 34.50 ERA

2009 season
42 IP
2009 ERA w/o those 6 IP = 5.5. With those 6 IP = 9.64

Career ERA = 4.16
w/o 2009 = 3.98
w./o those 6 IP in April 2009 = 4.07

I’d say that small portions of innings played extraordinarily well or extraordinarily poorly can impact a player’s value. Wang, after all, heading in 2009 with a career 3.98 ERA was just CUT by the Yankees.

"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8

by njjohn on Dec 18, 2009 10:10 AM EST up reply actions

Wang was injured

Still is

by paqs on Dec 21, 2009 3:14 AM EST up reply actions

That’s debatable. But nevertheless, the small innings sample still remains relevant.

"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8

by njjohn on Dec 21, 2009 4:30 PM EST up reply actions

Here's my theory

If you have a spike of a walk or so per 9 innings in a short stint, then yeah, I won’t seriously consider it. But be realistic. A jump from an already-high 6 walks per 9 innings to almost exactly walk per inning? That’s a factor of one-and-a-half. That’s not something you can whisk away if it’s something that is prolonged over a stint of nineteen games. That means that there’s something wrong with your control. It’s not one game where you go out and walk three guys and get yanked, only to settle back into normalcy the next day. Also, his first DWL game saw him get nobody out and walk two guys. His ERA is infinity there.

"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."

by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 18, 2009 10:19 AM EST up reply actions

Also

It’s just 18 innings.

by paqs on Dec 21, 2009 3:15 AM EST up reply actions

sigh

I give up. We disagree. :-P

"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."

by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 21, 2009 5:59 AM EST up reply actions

Hmmm....

busted mechanics?

"The existence of flamethrowers is proof that someone, somewhere, said to himself, 'I want to set those people over there on fire, but I don't feel like walking over there to do it.'"

by DbacksSkins on Dec 17, 2009 10:08 PM EST up reply actions

Performance vs. Upside

In making prospect lists, there is always a balance between evaluating results and potential upside. To me, guys like Septimo and Matt Davidson rank high because they have the potential to become difference makers, even though their results so far are mediocre at best. But pitchers who can hit 100 mph and batters who win Home Run derbys maybe can become stars.

I rank them higher than players like Ciriaco and Cowgill, because I just don’t see the potential for players like that to become above-average major leaguers. That is, if Ciriaco can’t put up an OPS over .700 in AA, he’s probably limited to be a slick-fielding, no-hit shortstop. And if Cowgill has to play a corner OF spot, but only has a SLG in the low .400s, that limits him to a platoon/reserve type outfielder. Both are still useful and necessary for an organization, but there is no star potential.

by Amit on Dec 18, 2009 12:14 PM EST up reply actions

The Southern League isn't exactly a hitter's haven, though.

And I’d like to point out that Josh Whitesell won the 2008 Triple-A HRD.

"The existence of flamethrowers is proof that someone, somewhere, said to himself, 'I want to set those people over there on fire, but I don't feel like walking over there to do it.'"

by DbacksSkins on Dec 18, 2009 1:50 PM EST up reply actions

HRD

Yeah, but there’s a big difference between a 26 year old Whitesell winning a HRD, and an 18 year old like Davidson winning HRDs against the best high school competition in the country – at the AFLAC All-American High School Classic, and at the National Classic (with a wood bat, too).

by Amit on Dec 18, 2009 2:16 PM EST up reply actions

Cowgill's SLG

Was .445. Not exactly “low .400’s.” Plus he gets on-base at a fantastic .373 clip.

"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."

by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2009 1:03 AM EST up reply actions

Scaling to MLB

I know, but I’m projecting a player who slugs .445 for Visalia at age 23 to slug a little less in the Majors. The OBP is fine, and if he was a CF, I’d think he was an excellent prospect.

Of course, he’s been hurt a lot, so it’s hard to evaluate Cowgill. This year at AA will be the make-or-break year for him.

by Amit on Dec 19, 2009 2:47 AM EST up reply actions

Yep

And it may turn out that just like when we thought we had a gem in Hallberg that we wind up with a Vortex of Suck. Hitter-friendly Hi-A league + Pitcher-friendly AA league + Already perhaps the hardest jump in the minors = Some fairly disappointing results from first-year AA guys on occasion.

"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."

by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2009 5:07 AM EST up reply actions

Well in the case

Take kennedy out, move everyone up a slot, and put in scott allen at #13

I like money - Frito Pendejo

by C. Wesley Baier on Dec 17, 2009 11:25 AM EST up reply actions

Mine is done

As of… now. But to let the anticipation build, I think I’ll post it on time. :-)

"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."

by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 17, 2009 3:02 AM EST reply actions

I'm going to post a revised top 40 list later today

When I get the chance. There’s a few guys I left off, and there’s a few i think are ranked a little too high.

I like money - Frito Pendejo

by C. Wesley Baier on Dec 17, 2009 12:54 PM EST reply actions

The revised list is posted, in case no one noticed.

I like money - Frito Pendejo

by C. Wesley Baier on Dec 18, 2009 12:51 AM EST up reply actions

I really don't know much

So I can’t really agree or disagree because you most likely know much more and because Timm would come around and school me. ;) But I can say that if Brandon Allen goes anywhere I am going to spend ages blushing furiously thanks to MrsSnakePit and soco deciding to call out (WHEN HE COULD HEAR IT!) that I had a crush on him (WHICH I DON’T.) Oy.

Give me a second, I can bring this back to Trent Oeltjen.

by mrssoco on Dec 17, 2009 1:15 PM EST reply actions

Don't you know how this works

A minor bump of a TV set → mrssoco hurling it across the room in a Byrnes-defending rage

By the end of this season, you will be reported as being in full-on Brandon Allen-stalk mode, having defeated SuperFan Susan in a steel-cage match for his affections.

Trust me on this. Our chief weapon is exaggeration… exaggeration and sarcasm…. sarcasm and exaggeration. Our two weapons are exaggeration and sarcasm….and nerd refererences… Our three weapons are exaggeration, sarcasm. and nerd references…and an almost fanatical devotion to Conor Jackson…. Our four…no… Amongst our weapons…. Amongst our weaponry…are such elements as exaggeration, sarcasm….

I’ll come in again…

"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil

by Jim McLennan on Dec 17, 2009 2:56 PM EST up reply actions 6 recs

The Snakepit distilled down to its purest essence

Rec’d.

"I can just see it: Post 'Intervention? Why would I need an intervention?' And then he'd +1 himself."

by kishi on Dec 17, 2009 3:47 PM EST up reply actions

Wow

I’m not sure if this is brilliance or a demonstration of excessive intoxicated rambling, but I think it’s probably both…

"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."

by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 17, 2009 4:03 PM EST up reply actions

If you aren't familiar with the reference

You should watch this video.

"I can just see it: Post 'Intervention? Why would I need an intervention?' And then he'd +1 himself."

by kishi on Dec 17, 2009 4:11 PM EST up reply actions

If you aren't familiar with this reference...

you should leave, now.

Just kidding.

by Counsellmember on Dec 17, 2009 4:37 PM EST up reply actions

Well

My description certainly fits.

"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."

by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 17, 2009 5:44 PM EST up reply actions

It all stemmed from the fact

I was working on a piece about The 10 Greatest Monty Python Sketches of All Time.

"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil

by Jim McLennan on Dec 17, 2009 9:58 PM EST up reply actions

well it was that or decide to put him

into the comfy chair!

also …Jim…

If the Upperclass Twit of the Year isn’t on your list, then I will have to challenge you to a remake of the Fish Slapping Dance. I get to be Cleese and you get to be Palin. I already have the pith helmet.

I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....

by piratedan7 on Dec 17, 2009 11:30 PM EST up reply actions

So what you are telling me is...

That you are taking the pith…

"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil

by Jim McLennan on Dec 18, 2009 12:18 AM EST up reply actions

ohhhh, if only his father could understand

and would you turn that bloody bazooky off! Actually I would have replaced the Galaxy Song/Live Organ Transplant with the Twit sketch but I do agree that it’s difficult to limit yourself to simply ten, I could put forth another ten rather easily. In no particular order.

1) the Knights who say Ni
2) The Cheese Shop
3) Upperclass Twit of the Year
4) The summarize proust competition
5) blackmail
6) The Bruce sketch/Philosphy depart of the University of Wallamaroo
7) Soccer matches – Greeks versus German Philosphers or Brighton Gynocologists vs Long John Silver impersonators
8) Gumby Brain Surgery
9) Mr. Shabby
10) The election sketch

good thing I got all this stuff on DVD for cold and rainy nights….

I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....

by piratedan7 on Dec 18, 2009 12:34 AM EST reply actions

[Whispers]

Perfectly credible list. A good chunk of those lurked just outside my top 10 (Cheese Shop was one of the last ones cut).

[Notices Zephon staring]

Prospects? Yeah. Er, prospects = good.

"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil

by Jim McLennan on Dec 18, 2009 11:13 AM EST up reply actions

Yeah, c'mon Jim.

Of ALL the people to engage in blatant and unmitigated off-topicry…..

"The existence of flamethrowers is proof that someone, somewhere, said to himself, 'I want to set those people over there on fire, but I don't feel like walking over there to do it.'"

by DbacksSkins on Dec 18, 2009 11:48 AM EST up reply actions

No mention of the parrot sketch?

I like money - Frito Pendejo

by C. Wesley Baier on Dec 18, 2009 1:54 PM EST up reply actions

He was going for ten not on my list

Parrot sketch was my #1 there.

"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil

by Jim McLennan on Dec 18, 2009 1:57 PM EST up reply actions

Just checked out the list Jim

and I completely agree with it all the way. My favorite sketch of all time is the arguement clinic.

I like money - Frito Pendejo

by C. Wesley Baier on Dec 18, 2009 5:23 PM EST up reply actions

suck up

I bet your mother was a hamster and your father smelt of elderberries.

I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....

by piratedan7 on Dec 18, 2009 5:38 PM EST up reply actions

Umm...

can we get back to talking about prospects?

I like money - Frito Pendejo

by C. Wesley Baier on Dec 18, 2009 12:49 AM EST reply actions

oh sure....

now you wanna talk about prospects when it’s YOUR thread…..

You gotta like Matt Helm’s chances…. especially after those movies he made in the 60’s.

I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....

by piratedan7 on Dec 18, 2009 12:53 AM EST up reply actions

I'm just baseball starved

Got the shakes from baseball withdrawl.

I like money - Frito Pendejo

by C. Wesley Baier on Dec 18, 2009 12:59 AM EST up reply actions

jeebus crow man

we just had the winter meetings last week and the super-uber trade where we were fleeced in front of God and Bedbug Selig! Are we gonna have to ship you to the Dominican to catch up on your horsehide and synthetic leather fix?

I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....

by piratedan7 on Dec 18, 2009 1:19 AM EST up reply actions

I was just thinking..

I can’t wait for the season to start so I can see all these 09 draftees play a full season. This list will probably look completely different this time next year.

I like money - Frito Pendejo

by C. Wesley Baier on Dec 18, 2009 12:53 AM EST reply actions