2010 in Arizona: Second-base
by Jim McLennan on Dec 14, 2009 11:07 PM EST
in Diamondbacks News
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PrintSomewhat later than usual, the earlier part of the day having been spent in putting together our early Christmas present to each other: a new TV set. I think we have the basics sorted now: it's attached to a stand, sitting on a table and the cable-box has been reconnected, but further action on that front has been suspended pending the arrival of the HDMI cables. Those should have arrived today, but instead we got a terse note from the Post Office stating, "Dogs Out". They clearly do not know our canines.
Anyway, no point engaging in further cabliciousness until those arrive, so we just watched the first thing on the new box: let the record show that it was The Breakfast Club, which I had never actually seen. American high-school angst: not normally my thing, but this was pretty good, sharply written and well-acted, so better than I expected. And speaking of a disparate group of individuals, thrown together by fate for a common purpose, brings me neatly to second-base in Arizona. After the jump, we'll review what happened last season, and take a look at what options we might have at the spot for the coming year.
2009 Performance
1. Felipe Lopez - 80 starts .301/.364/.412
2. Ryan Roberts - 45 starts .279/.367/.416
3. Augie Ojeda - 27 starts .246/.340/.345
4. Rusty Ryal - 10 starts .271/.353/.593
It was generally thought fairly certain, even before Opening Day, that Felipe Lopez would be, at most, a one-season wonder at the position. If he was as good as he had been with the Cardinals, he'd be too expensive for us to re-sign as a free agent; if he was as bad as his time in Washington, we wouldn't want to re-sign him. In the end, he did pretty well for the Diamondbacks, but was traded to the Brewers just after the All-Star break, for prospects Cole Gillespie and Roque Mercedes [Lopez did even better in Milwaukee, batting .320, and as the best-hitting 2B on the free-agent market, looks set for a good payday as a result].
Following his departure, it was mostly Roberts who took over in the role of heavily-tattooed second-baseman. He had been the 25th man named to the roster in spring, but good work with both the glove and bat pushed him into contention, and he took full advantage of the chance provided by Lopez's departure. After that point, Roberts hit a solid .290/.374/.465, for a solid .839 OPS in the second-half, giving himself a solid chance to be the everyday starter in 2010. Defensive help was provided by the always-reliable Ojeda, and August call-up Ryal made a good impression in his major-league debut.
| Top Free Agents | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Name | Age | 2009 Sal. | 2009 OPS+ |
| Orlando Hudson |
32 | $8m | 109 |
| Felipe Lopez |
29 | $3.5m | 111 |
| Ronnie Belliard |
34 | $1.9m | 105 |
| Adam Kennedy |
34 |
$400k | 101 |
| Kelly Johnson |
28 | $2.825m | 83 |
| Chance of AZ free-agent activity: medium. | |||
2010 Depth-chart and Projections
- Kelly Johnson .262/.338/.428 [before AZ signing]
- Tony Abreu .285/.330/.416
- Ryan Roberts .250/.333/.379
- Augie Ojeda .250/.332/.336
The team does have a variety of options at second-base, though none of them are perhaps exactly sure-fire things. Roberts did play well when he replaced Lopez, but does he have what it takes to be an Opening Day starter for the first time in his career? One note of hope is that his good post-ASB performance was not BABIP inflated: his number there, at .313, was actuallylower than his pre-break BABIP of .333, even though hit batting average was 33 points better. However, we probably shouldn't expect Roberts to sustain the power surge which saw him hit seven homers in 200 at-bats during the second-half.
In the event of Roberts faltering, waiting in the wings will be Abreu, who came over from Los Angeles in the trade for Jon Garland. He spent most of the year in Triple-A with Albequerque, having missed the entire 2008 season with a groin injury. However, he continued where he left off, hitting .353 in 54 games, almost the same numbers Abreu posted in 2007 at Triple-A (.355 in 54 games), so seems to have fully recovered. [Though it should be noted, Albuquerque, where he played 2009, is higher than both Reno and Denver] It seems likely Abreu is being groomed to be Arizona's second-baseman of the future; however, at an age of only 25, if 2010 was not the start of his full-time incumbency, it wouldn't be the end of the world.
Abreu's role may depend on whether the Diamondbacks pick up Kelly Johnson. Nick Piecoro has confirmed that Arizona are interested in the former Braves' starter, who was recently non-tendered by Atlanta. At about this time last year, there had been discussions of a Conor Jackson for Johnson swap: given neither player exactly had a 2009 they will want to remember, it's probably for the best those talks came to nothing, but it does show Johnson has been on the team's radar for a bit. If this were to come to fruition, Piecoro reckons that it would lead to the trading away of Augie Ojeda, with Abreu being used as the infield backup instead.
However, if the team doesn't get Johnson, I don't get the feeling the Diamondbacks will be too concerned. The team should still be relatively happy to go into 2010, with Roberts as the starter and Abreu in the wings, and see how things shake out as the year progresses.
[Updated: 12/30] The acqiusition of Kelly Johnson gives the Diamondbacks a full-time, proven candidate to man second-base, though Johnson's 2009 was a year he'll want to forget. If he can return to the form showed in 2007 and 2008, then $2.35m will prove to be a total bargain. If he flops again, I expect the Diamondbacks to enter the age of Abreu sooner, rather than later, and see what he can do. Quite how Roberts, Abreu and Ojeda all fit into this picture is hard to say, and I suspect there is some clearing out of the logjam still to come.
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Deeeeeeeeeee
Does anyone have a detailed defensive analysis of all these guys?
I thought Abreu was supposed to be a plus defender, but his SB Nation page lists his glove work as a big drawback. Is the Truth out there?!?
by Counsellmember on Dec 15, 2009 10:19 AM EST reply actions
answering my own questions
Fangraphs rates Abreu quite highly with URZ in his limited career, though his numbers are “lowest” at 2nd base.
2nd: 7.3 URZ/150 in 124Inn
SS: 13.6 in 44Inn
3rd: 15.5 in 208Inn
Those aren’t too bad.
by Counsellmember on Dec 15, 2009 10:24 AM EST up reply actions
So....
Would we maybe move him to SS if Drew is dealt next summer?
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 15, 2009 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
That's a nice option
If Abreau’s bat plays this year, he gives us a lot of flexibility. His numbers don’t span a whole lot of innings, but put together it’s hard to say he isn’t an above average infielder.
I wonder why SB Nation doesn’t like the glove? We need to adopt his player’s page and give him his due.
by Counsellmember on Dec 15, 2009 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
Judging UZR on the basis of 30 odd games
Is like judging a batter on the basis of 100 AB. You can most likely throw those numbers away.
Minorleaguesplits.com has Totalzone numbers for his work in the minors. There really is no sample size for ’09 and he was hurt in ’08. He was average across all three position (in small sample sizes) in ’07, but in ’06 he played all year at 2B and he was +18 (which is amazing).
If SBNation is going on some scout analysis, I think that has more weight than any of those stats.
Well, I wouldn’t say the numbers should be thrown away. If a player has a hot month and a half at the plate or a cold month and a half at the plate, the numbers are worthless, they are just incomplete. A great 30 games is a good sign, but not a promise.
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8
It's the nature of defensive statistics
Three season’s worth of numbers in one position is like one season worth of hitting stats.
They shouldn’t be thrown away maybe, but I’d take whatever the scouts tell me over it.
Abreu's Defense
I think Abreu is definitely the best defender out of the Roberts/Abreu/Ryal group. In the Dodgers’ minor league system, scouts raved about the way Chin-Lung Hu and Abreu turned double plays.
Albuquerque
I dunno about the Isotopes’ park factor, but the city itself is at higher elevation than either Tucson or Phoenix. Heck, it’s at higher elevation than Reno or even Denver.
Jim, what are you thinking about Rusty in 2009?
"The existence of flamethrowers is proof that someone, somewhere, said to himself, 'I want to set those people over there on fire, but I don't feel like walking over there to do it.'"
Didn't realize it was so high
Duly edited. I wonder if this is partly why PCL is such a hitter-friendly league?
"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil
by Jim McLennan on Dec 15, 2009 4:12 PM EST up reply actions
I have to assume
that it’s at least PART of the reason. Elevation of Tucson was 2400 feet, higher than any MLB city except Denver. Elevation of Reno is 4400, Albuquerque 5400, Colorado Springs something like 6000,
Hmmm. Interesting material for an article, here.
A highly unscientific look at the elevations of MLB cities, compared to the elevations of PCL cities, (using Wikipedia, of course) shows that MLB cities are at an average of 555 ft above sea level, and PCL cities are at an average of 1762 ft above sea level. That’s a greater difference in average elevation than the total elevation of Phoenix.
I’m guessing there are other things, as well — for example, the fact that good pitching is more valuable and more rare than good hitting, so teams are more likely to promote AA and AAA pitchers to the majors than hitters.
"The existence of flamethrowers is proof that someone, somewhere, said to himself, 'I want to set those people over there on fire, but I don't feel like walking over there to do it.'"
Homerun Homer
Isotopes park used to be my home field as a fan living near Santa Fe. It was very offense friendly. VERY. I thought I remembered part of the reason being closer fences in addition to the elevation, but I can’t be sure of the effectiveness of my memory back in those days.
But it’s a great park!
by Counsellmember on Dec 15, 2009 5:25 PM EST up reply actions
Well, like I said,
this is just a highly unscientific and brief look at ONLY the elevations of the cities, and for some places, I have a feeling that there may even be a few hundred ft difference between the official city’s elevation and the elevation of the ballpark — for example, I think the elevation of San Francisco is listed as 52 ft, while we all know that AT&T is on the waterfront. (Okay, that’s not a few hundred ft difference, but you get my drift)
Regarding fences, though, remember that Coors Field, the most hitter-friendly field in the majors, isn’t exactly a bandbox, either. It’s got a massive outfield. OTOH, New Yankee Stadium IS a bandbox, but it’s at 33 ft elevation. So clearly, there’s more than just altitude and dimensions at work with park factors.
"The existence of flamethrowers is proof that someone, somewhere, said to himself, 'I want to set those people over there on fire, but I don't feel like walking over there to do it.'"
Abreu's stats
Minorleaguesplits has a neutralize park/luck option, and Abreu’s neutralized line reads .292/.320/.475 cumulative (he played in AA as well) and .301/.336/.532 for Albuquerque. Nice pop, but a guy with his (lack of) plate discipline is going to be struggle in the majors.
The good news is that plate discipline can be developed.
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8
Really?
He’s 25, so it’s not like a Broxton situation where you hope some instruction would do him good.
And if your BB% is under 5% in 1600 PA, that’s pretty much who you are. If you think I’m wrong, please give me a counter example. Someone who had 4 or more seasons with 5% and then developed let’s say average BB% (8-9%).
That's difficult
To pull out of your ass… Not unfeasable though, especially for a guy who missed time with a hernia when he had been in the majors at 22 years old…
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 16, 2009 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
I know
I’d say it’s possible to improve your plate discipline to some degree, but if you’re a hacker (<5%) you’ll tend to stay a hacker.
As for Abreu, he’s been the same pre and post injury.
But
When you’re 23 and miss a full year, you miss the opportunity to develop your zone discipline during that year, and then when you get back it takes some time to re-adjust. So I’m saying that even though he’s 25, there’s a chance he could still develop in terms of his discipline, as he hasn’t had that much time to develop in that way.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 17, 2009 4:16 PM EST up reply actions
That's
Very optimistic. He had 1500 PA in his career, which is plenty of time to improve your plate discipline. It’s just not the type of hitter he is.
True, but... :-P
He also started in the minors at a really really young age. Comparing PA’s to PA’s doesn’t always make a huge amount of sense to me because some polished college guys need a lot fewer PA’s before being major-league-ready than guys who enter the minors younger and more raw.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 19, 2009 1:09 AM EST up reply actions
Good stuff once again Jim
Not sure where to put this, so i’m posting it here… this weeks draft article is going to be delayed a week, due to IHSB having finals this week, and me just being busy as hell.
I like money - Frito Pendejo
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZHCVyllnck
by C. Wesley Baier on Dec 15, 2009 1:13 PM EST reply actions
New sig?
"The existence of flamethrowers is proof that someone, somewhere, said to himself, 'I want to set those people over there on fire, but I don't feel like walking over there to do it.'"
You are a master of observation Phil.
I like money - Frito Pendejo
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sZHCVyllnck
by C. Wesley Baier on Dec 15, 2009 1:32 PM EST up reply actions
I try.
"The existence of flamethrowers is proof that someone, somewhere, said to himself, 'I want to set those people over there on fire, but I don't feel like walking over there to do it.'"
Also,
is there a paragraph missing? Seems like sort of an abrupt jump from the second to last to the last.
"The existence of flamethrowers is proof that someone, somewhere, said to himself, 'I want to set those people over there on fire, but I don't feel like walking over there to do it.'"
I understand Abreu's only 25...
but does another season in PCL AAA limbo really do anything for him? He tore the cover off the ball in ‘07, got hurt in ’08, then came back and tore it up again in ’09. Hitter friendly park (and more generally, league) it might have been, but it’s not like he’d be spending the ‘10 AAA season in a pitcher dominated league getting different looks. It’s still the PCL, what more would be getting out of it?
Spend the money elsewhere. 1B, bullpen, anywhere. We’ve got infielders with decent potential coming out of our ears, and if we don’t get them the chance to show they’re everyday players at some point why do we keep holding on to them. Roberts was ok-to-solid last year, we saw great flashes from Ryal, and Abreu could theoretically be an above average player. Isn’t it about time one of them gets a real shot?
On the other hand our first base options include Allen, with less minor league seasoning than Abreu, or a couple other guys who don’t actually play first base, at a position where offensive production is expected above all else. Any money thrown to Kelly Johnson takes away a chance to get a solid option at 1B.
I agree.
Unless we could get Adam Kennedy or Kelly Johnson for league minimum, then have an open tryout in ST, we oughta just stick with the guys we already have.
Ryal can also play 1B though, too. Or at least, he did last year.
"The existence of flamethrowers is proof that someone, somewhere, said to himself, 'I want to set those people over there on fire, but I don't feel like walking over there to do it.'"
I'm always wary of the phrase "can also play"...
Considering we’ve seen that Mark Grace “can also pitch” :p
But this term scares me especially in terms of the D’Backs 1B options. This isn’t a SS moving to 2B, or a LF moving to RF. 1B is a unique position on the diamond and requires a different skill set than any other. Sure it might not be the most difficult place on the diamond, but fielding a grounder and picking a bad throw mid-stretch are worlds apart.
Sure Ryal “can play” 1B. Tracy “can (could) play” 1B. Conor “can play” 1B. Haven’t we been here before? It’s not a secret that Reynolds doesn’t have the most accurate arm at 3B, and whoever’s pitching always has a strange affinity to awful pickoff throws. That’s a lot of opportunities to flash the glove for a 1B, and throwing a bunch of people who “can play” 1B don’t pick up that play nearly enough.
1B is a cornerstone position for winning teams. (I know this isn’t the greatest analogy) but look at the teams that were in the playoffs last year. Texeira, Youkalis, Howard, Morneau, Pujols, Morales, Helton, Loney. Outside of Loney (who’s not a slouch in his own right) you’ve got all-stars. I have all faith that Brandon Allen will be the cornerstone of this team in a few years, but he’s simply not ready.
I’m not saying we have to gut our farm system and trade for Adrian Gonzalez, but this position has been in limbo for FAR too long.
After a second look at the 1B review from earlier
Apparently my mind is going bad because Chad Tracy played a LOT more 1B than I remember him playing. I could have sworn he has almost exclusively a 3B before the last two years, but apparently he played most at 1B all the way back in 05. Strange. Poor guy never was quite right after those injuries kept creeping in.
Also I’m going to stop derailing the 2B thread into a 1B rant now. Carry on.
If a guy's defense is good enough to play 2B,
then it’s certainly good enough to play 1B. But Rusty’s 2B defense might not be good enough to make him the starter at 2B, while his bat might not make him good enough to start at 1B.
So, make him a platoon player. When CoJack plays LF against LHP, (over Parra) Rusty can play 1B (over Allen).
That’s the way I look at it, anyway. Just my opinion. I’m trying to figure out how to make the most of the guys we already have.
"The existence of flamethrowers is proof that someone, somewhere, said to himself, 'I want to set those people over there on fire, but I don't feel like walking over there to do it.'"
I agree.
I think we have enough pieces in place to piece together a lineup that makes sense on a nightly basis, but the problem is that a lineup that makes sense might not cut it. A better, proven power option as a RHB for 1B could have huge benefits for this team. I like Jonny Gomes based on his 20 HRs in less than 100 games last season as a platoon option, but then we’d have to find a way to deal an infielder. We’d have a Gomes/Allen platoon at 1B, Abreu/Roberts/Ryal at 2B, Drew/Ojeda at SS, and Reynolds/Ojeda/Roberts at 3B. Eight infielders is FAR too many, especially when we also have a crowded OF situation. I think trading Ryal and possibly Roberts could sort things out. Keeping Augie specifically because of his defensive versatility to play 2B, SS, and 3B.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 16, 2009 2:33 AM EST up reply actions
Oh....
and I doubt there’s any way we can get Kennedy for league minimum, esp. as a 2B who just posted an above-average OPS+, so we’d have to hope that Johnson’s lousy 2009 lowers his price enough that we can afford him.
"The existence of flamethrowers is proof that someone, somewhere, said to himself, 'I want to set those people over there on fire, but I don't feel like walking over there to do it.'"
Rant On
That’s a nice summation of my own feelings toward first base. Problem with the position is that the All-Stars that man the base also hit 40 HR a year and are expensive. Those options just aren’t open to us at the moment.
So what are our options?
Jackson- I’m starting to see this as a bigger and bigger possibility for the FO
Allen- agree that’s he’s not ready to go it alone. I don’t know if his growth is stunted as a platoon player or back-up.
$$FA- Nick Johnson, Im looking at you. I like this idea for a non-outrageous price. If When he gets injured, Allen is there to pick up the playing time. Otherwise we’ve got a real lineup changer.
lowball FA – Garko would do. Splits would work well in conjunction with Allen. Like I said, I’m wary of putting a young kid in a platoon and not letting him grow to hit lefties.
Am I missing someone obvious?
And again...
I miss the reply button. That one’s toward you, Sen.
by Counsellmember on Dec 15, 2009 6:38 PM EST up reply actions
I was gonna say.
I assume you’re agreeing with him, rather than with me.
"The existence of flamethrowers is proof that someone, somewhere, said to himself, 'I want to set those people over there on fire, but I don't feel like walking over there to do it.'"
i'm not expecting an all-star signing
I’m just trying to say the black hole of suck we experienced last year can’t continue. I know money is tight, but a middle of the order true 1B to protect reynolds both at the plate and in the field would be my top priority
by SenSurround on Dec 15, 2009 6:57 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Thing about putting Allen in an LHB/RHB platoon
Is that it’s not like he’s NEVER going to see RHP. Relievers come in, and we could keep him in because his defense is likely superior to any low-ball FA 1B platoon partner we could pair him with.
"I've had Bailey's out of a shoe, though."
by Dan Strittmatter on Dec 16, 2009 2:35 AM EST up reply actions
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