DBacks acquire Aaron Heilman
According to MLBtraderumors and SI.com, the Diamondbacks have acquired Aaron Heilman.
Thanks to emilylovesthedbacks for spotting this on twitter, more info to come.
[Updated] The deal sees the Cubs getting a pair of prospects, in left-handed reliever Scott Maine and infielder Ryne White. Said Josh Byrnes, "Aaron has been a successful, durable reliever who will add experience and stability to our bullpen." The right-hander is 31, and had a 4.11 ERA in 72.1 innings for the Cubs in 2009.
(Update) Credit also goes to Counsellmember, who also mentioned this in the Lincecum Cy Young post.
Maine, 24, was the D-backs sixth-round selection in the 2007 First-Year Player Draft. In 2009, he went a combined 4-5 with 7 saves and a 2.90 ERA (20 ER in 62.0 IP) in 48 relief appearances at Double-A Mobile and Triple-A Reno. Over parts of three seasons in the D-backs farm system, he went 8-7 with 13 saves and a 3.29 ERA (44 ER in 120.1 IP) in 88 relief outings. White, 23, was the D-backs fourth-round selection in the 2008 First-Year Player Draft. In 2009, he hit .266 (111-for-418) with 18 doubles, 1 triple, 6 home runs and 52 RBI in 116 games for Single-A Visalia. Over parts of two season in Arizona’s minor league system, he hit .275 (194-for-705) with 37 doubles, 2 triples, 13 home runs and 103 RBI in 186 games.
Interestingly, the official press release is careful to mention Heilman's stats as a starter, even though he hasn't been one for the past four seasons. His agent told the New York Daily News in November last year: "The object the entire time has never been to get out of New York. The object is to get out of the bullpen. The most success he's ever had as a pitcher has been as a starting pitcher. He was drafted by the Mets as a starting pitcher." That didn't happen after his trade to Chicago, and one wonders if it's something the team might try here? He earned $1.625m in 2009, so would be a cheap enough member of the rotation if so. Of course, the question of whether he can be a starter is a huge one.
But even if not, he should be an innings-eater in the bullpen. Among "pure" relievers, no-one has pitched more innings over the past four seasonss than Heilman. Interestingly, second on the list is another name we might recognize, Jon Rauch, who was born less than two months before Heilman in 1979. One thing I note is that Heilman's ERA+ over that time (109) doesn't quite seem to mesh with his opponent's OPS: he has held hitters to a decent line of .241/.322/.378. If you look at the other relievers in the chart linked above, that kind of OPS tends to result in better ERA numbers.
xFIP has Heilman at 4.15 last year, which is pretty close to his actual ERA. His groundball numbers are a little worrying, being below MLB average for the past two seasons, and heading the wrong way too, though this is mitigated by decent infield-fly rates. His K:BB ratio have not been brilliant either, at about 1.8, which is mediocre in the true sense [league average last year for relievers was 1.87]. Overall, I feel somewhat "meh" about the deal: I tend to feel it gives the bullpen more depth, without really improving the quality enormously. However, about a quarter of his appearances involved him going more than one inning, and about 30% were on zero days rest, so he may help relieve our relievers, at it were.
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From what I can find,
it looks like we got Heilman in a deal for Scott Maine and Ryne White.
by emilylovesthedbacks on Nov 19, 2009 4:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Updated the story with that
"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil
by Jim McLennan on Nov 19, 2009 4:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Hmmm
Relief? Starter? So many questions.
by Counsellmember on Nov 19, 2009 4:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Relief, I'd assume
He hasn’t started since 2005.
"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil
by Jim McLennan on Nov 19, 2009 4:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Im guessing starter?
I remember him being loud about wanting to be a starter again the last couple of years. If he is a reliever, how many more spots do we have down there? Doesn’t seem like an upgrade over the current crop, just less upside.
by Counsellmember on Nov 19, 2009 4:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
aaaaaaaaaaaaand....
I read the update. Reliever it is.
by Counsellmember on Nov 19, 2009 4:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Bill James gives a nice outlook for '10
3.88 ERA, 66 hits in 72 Inn. with 63 strikouts. But also 31 walks :P
by Counsellmember on Nov 19, 2009 4:54 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Heilman blows
Dbacks are better off saving the money and using Scott Maine
by SeanMillerSavior on Nov 19, 2009 4:59 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Looking at Maine's stats, I think I agree
Ryne White isn’t that bad of a prospect either, but with Allen, Coughlin, Wheeler, and Goldschmidt having great seasons at first base and possibly Borchering, Davidson and/or Helm getting moved to first, White is pretty much spare parts at this point. Our depth at first is pretty good at this point.
I don’t think Hielman is that bad. He’s only a couple years removed from having three seasons of ERAs that are <4.00. His bad season in 2008 was mostly a result of a high BABIP and a flukey loss of control. I think he’ll do pretty well for us next year.
"When fascism comes to this country, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross" - Upton Sinclair
by Zephon on Nov 19, 2009 5:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You could not be more wrong
Maine is not that good, not ready for the majors (3 ER in 1.2 IP in the AFL), and cannot start (which leads me to believe that the intent is really to use Heilman as a starter, despite the report on the team’s website). Had to save his AAA numbers with a few shutout innings at the end of the year. Also, Ryne White honestly had nowhere to go in the system, with Whitesell at 1B in AAA, Bryan Byrne at 1B in AA (to move up to AAA when Wheeler moved up), and Ryan Wheeler at 1B in Hi-A to start the season and Paul Goldschmidt at 1B in South Bend to move up to Hi-A when Wheeler moved up. There were no starting 1B spots in the system for White. Turning a quality prospect who is blocked in the system into a major-league asset is always a good idea.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Nov 19, 2009 8:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Maine will be 25 for all of next season, still at AAA (given his AFL performance).
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Nov 19, 2009 9:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Are you really
Using 1.2 innings in the AFL as proof that Maine is not good?
Really?
No, really?
Dear God.
[/being an ass]
by paqs on Nov 20, 2009 4:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, that was not what I intended to use as my reasoning...
Admittedly, looking back at that, it sure sounds that way. :-P But, for some real analysis, the guy throws from a 2 o’clock arm slot. That can work in the minors against hitters from either side of the plate with his stuff (92-94 fastball, hard-moving curve, developing change), but righties in the majors will crush him. Guys throwing from that arm slot can’t pitch to hitters on either side unless they have Marmol stuff, and Maine doesn’t have Marmol stuff. Essentially this makes him a LOOGY, which isn’t really a need for us given that we have both Clay Zavada and Daniel Schlereth already ahead of where Maine was in the system. When we can get a major-league piece for that, that’s impressive return.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Nov 20, 2009 9:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
I agree, the odds are against him when it comes to being a major league player.
But 1.2 IP mean nothing at all, and he does have impressive minor league numbers, even though he was too old for each level.
Like I wrote down there, we didn’t get a major league piece for the two prospects, we got a major league piece for the $2M we’re going to pay him. The Cubs got two prospects for a guy they were about to non tender.
by paqs on Nov 21, 2009 3:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Heilman on the free market
Gets a lot more than $2M. Just saying.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Nov 21, 2009 11:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, really. It's the definition of Arbitration.
It’s not hard to figure out if you analyze the numbers a little. If he didn’t have a market value above the $1.6M he was paid this year, his estimated salary through arbitration wouldn’t increase to the $2M we’re all expecting. So, obviously, his value on the market is at least $2M (note: salary can only increase by a certain maximum percentage through arbitration, limiting Heilman’s salary jump).
Then, because of the fact that he posted a 109 ERA+ and is an absolute innings-devourer, having pitched the most innings of any pure reliever in the past four years, he is exceptionally valuable to any team. Everybody needs a guy to eat up innings out of a bullpen, and Heilman can do that effectively. He is consistent and can keep leads, which, as we so aptly demonstrated last year in the eighth inning, is worth a lot of wins.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Nov 23, 2009 11:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Can you give me an example
Of someone whose arbitration ruling decreased their pay?
And can you please stop ignoring the fact the Cubs were about to non tender him?
by paqs on Nov 24, 2009 5:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Conor Jackson
Is about to see his salary dropped. Otherwise, I’d have to do research on this which, given that I’m in an airport on my phone, would be difficult.
And you’re sure of this are you? Seems odd to me that they would given how much they used him last year. And this way we get him a. A lower price anyways.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Nov 25, 2009 5:30 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Also,
The last line was rather redundant.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Nov 20, 2009 9:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Ugh
My girlfriend is a Mets fan.
We started dating 2 seasons ago. Her TV/DVD setup is weird, and every now and then I’ll have difficulty with it. Sometimes just the TV turns on, other times just the cable box will come on.
You probably are wondering what the hell this has to do with anything. Well, every time I screw up this seemingly routine task of turning on the television, she calls me the “Aaron Heilman of remotes.”
Needless to say, given his performance with the Mets in ‘08 and Cubs this year, I’m not thrilled with this trade.
by ASUJon on Nov 19, 2009 5:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
ERA+ of 109 with the Cubs this year
I’d settle for more of the same for us in 2010.
"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil
by Jim McLennan on Nov 19, 2009 5:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Normally I am a stats guy but...
When fans of multiple teams have been happy to be rid of someone, that is NOT someone I want.
by ASUJon on Nov 19, 2009 5:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Cubs fan here.
Good luck with him. He walks way too many people, even though his walk rate was a little better in 2009 than 2008.
We’re happy to see him go.
"You can observe a lot just by watching." ~ Yogi Berra
by Al on Nov 19, 2009 5:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I love, LOVE!!!
that you measure how long you’ve been dating your girlfriend in “seasons”
Kudos to you, sir. Or ma’am (not that there’s anything wrong with that)
by Counsellmember on Nov 19, 2009 5:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I myself
have been married for just a single, full season.
Hope I don’t have the sophmore slump!
by Counsellmember on Nov 19, 2009 5:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"Aaron Heilman of remotes"
instant classic.
"Have a take and do not suck or you will get run." - Jim Rome
by jonny-yuma on Nov 19, 2009 5:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Best analogy
on the site, right here.
Can somebody please throw away this telephone?
by soco on Nov 19, 2009 11:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
wouldn't be shocked if they
gave him a tryout at SP over spring training. It’s not like the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation are engraved in stone as of yet.
I used to be disgusted, now I try to be amused....
by piratedan7 on Nov 19, 2009 5:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Heilman
knows how to allow inherited runners to score.
raygu
by Ray Guilfoyle on Nov 19, 2009 5:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Well he'll just fit right in then won't he?
Although the report says he’ll be a set-up man, so it’s not like he’ll have many inherited runners to let score if that’s the case. Or if he’s starting, for that matter.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Nov 19, 2009 8:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Blurb from FanGraphs at start of last year...
Heilman, the erstwhile Mets reliever who spent a few days as Mariners property this offseason, has gone on the record as saying that he would like to start. However, his qualifications for such a role are not immediately apparent. From 2005-2007, the Notre Dame product had a good deal of success in Queens, though his FIP did rise each season (2.97 in ‘05, 3.28 in ‘06, 3.86 in ‘07). As a fastball/changeup reliever, Heilman was an asset. In 2008, however, Heilman began messing around with a slider, perhaps in an attempt to show that he had the three-pitch mix to go out there every fifth day.
While it’s hard to say for sure whether Heilman’s experimentation led to his struggles, his performance did head south. He struck out nearly nine-and-a half batters per nine innings, but Heilman’s walk rate soared (5.45 BB/9), he gave up a few more flyballs (his GB% fell about five percent to 40.8%) and he surrendered 1.18 HR/9. The end result was a mild 4.91 FIP. The Cubs essentially swapped both Felix Pie and Ronny Cedeno to acquire Heilman’s services. That’s quite the price to pay for a good, not great reliever or a kinda-sorta-rotation candidate.
by Counsellmember on Nov 19, 2009 5:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Random factoid
No ‘pure’ reliever has pitched more innings than Heilman over the past four seasons – only two guys have average more than 80 IP per year. Heilman and… Jon Rauch.
Wonder if Heilman has tattoos?
"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil
by Jim McLennan on Nov 19, 2009 5:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
4/5 starter
kinda-sorta-rotation candidate
Is it bad that this statement still makes me feel better about him starting than Buckner/Augenstein/The Dearly Departed?
by SenSurround on Nov 19, 2009 6:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I dont like this guy already he has Heil in his name.
by SaveUsY2J on Nov 19, 2009 8:10 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Any ways wasnt schoenweis ERA something like that coming in to AZ.
Im not sure how i feel about this one if he is acquired as an Sp im not sure if i like this at all.
by SaveUsY2J on Nov 19, 2009 8:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
There were completely different circumstances in Schoeneweis' case...
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Nov 19, 2009 8:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well seeing as he doesent cost a lot of money its really not a risk.
unless he turns into clubhouse cancer or something.
by SaveUsY2J on Nov 19, 2009 9:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe it's just me
But doesn’t Haren/Webb/Scherzer/Heilman/Buckner sound ok as a rotation? Given how Scherzer developed and Buckner pitched down the stretch I’d be ok with it.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Nov 19, 2009 8:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
What I thought too
About Heilman in the rotation. If we’re playing 2M for another arm to compete for the 5th slot in the rotation, I’m warm to the trade. Not so warm if he’s THE MAN for the 4 position, though.
However, I just don’t see the point in the bullpen. Right handed is good, I suppose. But, not only is it the money, who’s spot is he taking? I would have rather had 1 of the elite relievers on the market this year than Heilman and a mid-level guy, whilst squeezing out someone like Zavada.
by Counsellmember on Nov 19, 2009 10:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He's not taking anybody's spot
He’s filling the spot left vacant when Rauch was dealt.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Nov 20, 2009 3:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
He's taking someone's spot
We have minimum salary guys that came in for Rauch after he left. I just was hoping to see a late inning reliever come in and push everyone down a slot, instead of a middle reliever for our limited money.
by Counsellmember on Nov 20, 2009 11:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Those guys
Were going to be back in the minors anyways. And Heilman is probably a set-up man next season for us.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Nov 20, 2009 4:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Steve Gilbert
Likes the move: “It’s a low-risk move with a chance at paying off and it leaves the D-backs with more money to spend on that No. 4 starter and maybe on another reliever.”
"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil
by Jim McLennan on Nov 19, 2009 9:02 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
I like it too. I’m not very high on Maine, and Ryne White just hasn’t shown enough power to be a major league first basemen. Heilman can help in a lot of ways – starting, set-up, or multiple-inning relief, and has had some success in the past. At only $2M, he shouldn’t really affect the chances of getting another SP.
It would be nice if he can get his walk totals back to his 2007 level.
by Amit on Nov 19, 2009 9:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
agree with Gilbert
can take a shot at getting back to his ‘07 #’s, if not, no biggie.
"Have a take and do not suck or you will get run." - Jim Rome
by jonny-yuma on Nov 20, 2009 1:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A quick blurb from a scout.com
Left a good impression. No top prospects were dealt, we had left-handed bullpen depth with guys like Sclereth, Zavada, Septimo, etc., tons of new first basemen, and Heilman is cost-efficient.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Nov 19, 2009 9:14 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Good trade.
Nothing fancy, but getting a MLB part for two low ceiling, nowhere to go 23/24 year old minor league players has got to be regarded as a good move.
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8
by njjohn on Nov 20, 2009 12:05 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Not a good trade
Heilman is a below average middle reliever, and you can literally find those anywhere and pay them the minimum salary. Even if you think the prospects are worth nothing, you’re paying $2 million for something you can get for free (well, for the cost of a roster spot). His projection (all I got so far is Bill James) is no better than Gutierrez or Boyer.
The Cubs were going to non-tender him rather than pay the $2M.
For $2M or thereabouts, you can get a GOOD reliever. Last year, Juan Cruz signed for $3M, Joe Beimel signed for $2M, Arthur Rhodes for $2M.
If Heilman finds his from for ‘05 and ’06, or if he’s a moderately effective 5th starter, he’ll be worth it. But we’re just as likely to have another Schoeneweis on our hands.
by paqs on Nov 20, 2009 3:53 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
You could stand to use better examples
Than Joe Beimel. And Rhodes, while effective, is a LOOGY. Heilman has pitched the most innings of any reliever in the past four years, with solid results. I’d rather have that, personally. Also, Heilman is not below-average. ERA+ of 109 (thank you Mr. McLennan). Valuable major-league piece for mediocre prospects (White has no power, Maine has LOOGY ceiling).
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Nov 20, 2009 9:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually
I said he’s a below average reliever. Relievers have much lower ERAs than starters on average. If 4.50 is the average ERA for starters, relievers are under 4.
Rhodes might be a LOOGY but he’s waaay better than Heilman. The 15-20 more innings that Heilman pitches don’t make much of a difference. And you may not like Beimel but he hasn’t had an ERA above four in the last four years.
The prospects aren’t the problem, the $2M is.
by paqs on Nov 21, 2009 3:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Considering the mass bulk of innings Heilman pitches
109 ERA+ is very acceptable. He’s a more useful piece, and that’s what we needed. We have a bunch of guys who were pretty overworked last season, leading to eighth inning disasters. Heilman on the free market gets more then $2M. There’s a reason his salary will increase with arbitration.
Also, Beimel had to save his season after being let go. Not an altogether impressive example.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Nov 21, 2009 11:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Everyone's salary increases with arbitration
Beimel was let go, and he STILL had a better season than Heilman. How’s that for an example?
by paqs on Nov 23, 2009 2:58 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
That's debatable. On both counts.
Conor Jackson’s salary is about to decrease through arbitration. “Everyone’s” salary increases through arbitration because free agent market value is so much greater these days than in years past. So salaries that were once sufficient are now bargains. Like with Heilman. Which is why, on the free market, he gets more than $2M.
Heilman’s xFIP last year was 4.15. Beimel’s? 4.59 in Colorado and 4.89 in Washington. Heilman gives you 72.1 innings last year, Beimel gives you 55.1 innings. Heilman gives you 65 K to 34 BB (1.9:1), walks being considered his biggest red flag, but Beimel’s ratio is worse, 35 K to 19 BB (1.8:1). You throw out terms like “better season” when you really don’t look at the stats behind their seasons… So, yeah, how is that for an example?
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Nov 23, 2009 11:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I thought you were an ERA guy
If you want the ultimate stat, WAR, Beimel is at 0.3 and Heilman at 0.2.
And if what it takes for a salary to decrease through arbitration is for you to miss 90% of a season, perform like a little leaguer for the other 10% and raise doubts as to whether you’ll ever play again, it kind of confirms.
And excuse me for the all caps but if his market value is more than $2M, WHY WERE THE CUBS ABOUT TO NON TENDER HIM?!?
by paqs on Nov 24, 2009 6:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
B/c they’re THE CUBS!!!!
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8
by njjohn on Nov 24, 2009 2:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I usually use ERA because it's readily available
But given your preference for other stats I felt I’d adapt. And the xFIP/WAR debate can go on forever, and given the relative discrepancies and our needs, I’ll take the innings over the left-handedness.
I’ll find you a list later. It’s just the only example I had from the top of my head.
I think the above explanation is pretty good. Also, given how much they made use of him last year I think they’ll find they undervalued him.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Nov 25, 2009 5:45 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
All of them are readily available
if you know where to look :)
Anyway, I say we settle this and hope for the best.
by paqs on Nov 30, 2009 3:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
There were times last year
where we desperately needed a solid, unspectacular, inning-eating reliever. Kind of like a wet blanket with a 4ish ERA we could through over the other team and protect a large lead through the 7th, 8th and 9th innings.
This:
Heilman has pitched the most innings of any reliever in the past four years, with solid results.
makes me thing that Heilman could fill that role nicely, even if he doesn’t show any great improvement. This year, maybe “5 runs up in the 8th inning” won’t seem like such a precarious position.
"We...probed them all the way through. They're completely meat." — Terry Bisson
by Scrbl on Nov 20, 2009 9:39 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
That's what I'm hoping for
An ERA of 4.50 for a reliever doesn’t sound brilliant, but I’d settle for a run every other inning, as long as it’s consistent. Last year, it seemed we didn’t have that “wet blanket”. Only in two of the 70 appearances did he allow more than two runs. Also worth nothing: when going more than one inning in 2009, Heilman allowed three runs in 26.2 IP.
"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil
by Jim McLennan on Nov 20, 2009 10:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
4.50?
There were 120 relievers who pitched more than 50 IP with an ERA better than 4.50. Among them, we had 5 guys. It’s just not hard to find a guy like that, even for free. Most failed starters can be relievers with an ERA of 4.50.
As for being consistent, what about if he allows a run every other inning, and since he’s the setup man, 10 of those happen when we have a one run lead. 5 others happen when we are tied. He loses us 15 games? You can’t predict when someone will give up runs, and how many.
The fact he only allowed more than two runs twice means he didn’t have as many scoreless appearances as someone who would occasionally get torched.
Listen, I understand the need to be optimistic, but this isn’t a very good way to spend $2M.
by paqs on Nov 21, 2009 3:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I picked 4.50 for convenient math purposes i.e. it's one run every other innings.
Heilman’s actual ERA was 4.11 over more than 70 innings. Plug those numbers in and your 120 relievers are now reduced to 38. The MLB average ERA for relievers last year was 4.08, so $2m seems about right for a league-average reliever to me. And if he returns to his five-year average ERA of 3.75, he’s a bargain at that price.
On the consistency front, your math is flawed for estimating he’d lose 15 games. How many pure relievers even lose ten games a year? One in the past four seasons (Luis Ayala in 2008, and his ERA was 5.71). We allowed 120 runs in the 8th inning last year – an RA of 6.67 – if Heilman, our likely set-up man, means can get that down even to five, it will save us thirty runs, a huge improvement that will certainly help our wins total.
"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil
by Jim McLennan on Nov 21, 2009 7:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Wouldn't one of our younger guys
make a better setup pitcher?
"We...probed them all the way through. They're completely meat." — Terry Bisson
by Scrbl on Nov 21, 2009 8:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
We tried them out at that spot at the end of the season
Boyer flopped. Vasquez struggled. Zavada doesn’t have the stuff. They’re good middle relievers, but not set-up men who can pitch in pressure situations. Heilman can.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Nov 21, 2009 11:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You seem pretty sure of this
In the last three years, Heilman has 19 losses and 16 blown saves.
I’m too lazy to look at leaderboards and such, but this is an amazingly huge number to me. Seems to me he flopped, struggled and didn’t have the stuff. Maybe he’s a good reliever, but not a set-up man who can pitch in pressure situations.
Right?
by paqs on Nov 23, 2009 3:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Blown Saves for Middle Relievers
If you’re going to look at blown saves for middle relievers and set-up men, you need to look at Holds too. While they do get blown saves when they give up the lead, they rarely get the Save, because the closer comes in for the 9th and gets the Save.
Heilman does have 21 Blown Saves over the last 4 seasons, but he also has 74 Holds, plus 18 Wins and 5 Saves. That’s pretty good.
by Amit on Nov 23, 2009 3:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well
a) I see you cherry picked another season to give him more holds. I don’t know if what he did 4 years ago is any indication of his true talent now, but even so, 74 holds versus 21 blown saves is pretty bad.
b) I should really note that I don’t care about any of these stats. Saves, Wins, Losses, Holds, Blown Holds, Blown saves, etc, are pretty meaningless for relievers. The most important figure is FIP (or xFIP), which is at around 4.15 for his career, and substantially higher (closer to 4.5) the last two seasons. That is not good for an NL reliever, full stop. In fact, if you rank NL relievers by FIP, he’s 56th, behind every one of our bullpen pitchers. Even if you don’t care about FIP, he was 57th in ERA.
c) I only brought it up because IHateSouthBend knows Heilman can pitch the 8th and he knows the other guys we have can’t do it. Well, you only have to ask any Cub or Met fan in the world what they think of Heilman in high leverage situations. Are they all wrong?
d) This is not in response to you, but to Jim and his criteria of 70 IP in the above post.
What’s with the obsession with a work horse reliever? If you take Heilman’s true talent to be a 4 ERA reliever, and have him pitch 80 innings, and take a different guy who only pitches 60 at that level. That means you have to give those 20 to another pitcher, presumably a 4.50 or a 5 ERA guy. Well, the difference between a 4 ERA and a 4.50 ERA in 20 IP is just over 1 run, and the difference between a 4 ERA and a 5 ERA in 20 IP is just over 2 runs. And that’s over an entire season. That is nothing to get excited about.
by paqs on Nov 23, 2009 8:49 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Bringing up 2006 Stats
I wasn’t cherry-picking. You said “Maybe he’s a good reliever, but not a set-up man who can pitch in pressure situations”. But he did fine in that role in 2006/07.
I agree that Heilman needs to pitch better than last year to be useful. But he shown that ability in the past, and his stuff still looks pretty good, so I think it’s worth a shot.
by Amit on Nov 23, 2009 11:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
*le sigh*
In response to b) “His xFIP is around 4.15 for his career.” His xFIP last year was exactly 4.15, not “closer to 4.5.” That is solid for an NL reliever who can lessen the workload of other arms (mentioned later), “full stop.” In response to c) I don’t know anything from personal experience because I haven’t followed his entire career, I just go by what the stats tell me and how it fits in with our budget, and given how limited we are with our payroll, Heilman seems like a damn good solution to a pretty serious problem we had while allowing us to spend more money to get a better 4th starter, something that’s more important than a slightly better set-up man, since, as you noted, the difference in a half of a point of ERA over the course of a reliever’s season isn’t as significant as that over the course of a starter’s season. In response to d) (although I’m sure Mr. McLennan will have his own say) it allows us to reduce the stress on some of our younger guys, which hopefully will allow them to avoid the blowup outings that they experienced at points last year. Remember Tony Pena? How dominant he was followed by how God-awful he ended up being? He got tired, and hopefully Heilman’s ability to handle a large workload will lessen some of those stresses. It’s a commodity, and for $2M, that’s pretty good.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Nov 23, 2009 12:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
Sorry about that, I have THT blocked at work so I can’t see it. I wanted to say his FIP was closer to 4.5
It was 4.91 in ’08 and 4.37 in ’09.
If you go by stats only, why do you consider him better than Juan Gutierrez, who had a better FIP and ERA last year? Zavada as well.
by paqs on Nov 24, 2009 6:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Because they were both rookies
I’d have some faith in Gutierrez because he has strikeout stuff, but Clay, as sad as this is to say, is destined for a sophomore slump. Apparently the organization didn’t see enough from Gutierrez at the end of the year when he was called on to close to give him the setup job for next year.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Nov 25, 2009 5:51 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't know
what the organization thinks of Gutierrez, but he was pretty awesome in September (I’m counting August 31st, the day Qualls got hurt).
8 saves, no blown saves, 3.5 ERA, .560 OPS against.
He allowed 5 runs, 3 of which came in mop up duty against the Giants, when he came in with a 10-4 lead.
I want him to pitch more meaningful innings than Heilman.
Also, Zavada had a K/9 of 9.18 and Gutierrez was at 8.37. I know you’re trying to say Gutierrez has strikeout stuff because his fastball is high 90s, but velocity doesn’t equal strikeout stuff. Zavada may well slump next season, but so can Gutierrez. We just don’t have a big enough sample in the majors to determine what their true talent is.
In case of Heilman, we do, and it’s about 4 – 4.25, depending on how optimistic you are.
I can’t wait for the projections to come out. For what it’s worth, Bill James projects Gutierrez and Heilman at 4.25 (FIP) and he has no projection for Zavada.
by paqs on Nov 30, 2009 4:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I was kinda thinking
of Gutierrez in that role. Or, as I was thinking of him when I wrote my last post: “that guy who had the great ERA and several saves at the end of last year”. I couldn’t remember his name (sorry Juan, won’t happen again).
"We...probed them all the way through. They're completely meat." — Terry Bisson
by Scrbl on Nov 23, 2009 9:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Again, my kingdom for an "Edit Post" button
I’m also hoping that Boyer, Zevada, or Vasquez shows some improvement. Or maybe one of the gaggle (or is it a bushel? a peck?) of “talented but erratic” youngsters from our minor league teams grows up during the offseason.
"We...probed them all the way through. They're completely meat." — Terry Bisson
by Scrbl on Nov 23, 2009 9:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Actually
I’ll take Zavada with no improvement :)
He was impressive as a rookie – 3.35 ERA, 3.95 FIP
by paqs on Nov 23, 2009 9:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
True
But if you’re expecting him to start the season with twenty straight scoreless appearances, you Have something else coming to you.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Nov 25, 2009 5:54 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Well
If you expect him to have thirty appearances with an ERA of 5.18, you also have something else coming.
His first 20 appearances are just as valuable as his last 30 when you project future performance.
The 3.35 ERA was probably a fluke, but he had a 3.92 FIP and a tRA+ of 105. I can’t look up his xFIP but looking at his home run rate, I’d say it’s somewhere under 4.
by paqs on Nov 30, 2009 5:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Well
a) I’m guessing the NL average is lower.
b) What he did 5 years ago isn’t really relevant anymore.
c) Yeah, that was some lazy math, I was trying to illustrate you can’t predict how the run distribution will work. By pure chance, he could allow runs in every save situation, and pitch lights out when we’re down.
d) Again, the fact we allowed 120 runs in the 8th inning is a fluke.
e) Please look at my reply to IHSB below.
by paqs on Nov 23, 2009 3:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I suspect
we have far better options for setup than Aaron Heilman. But in a long relief or mop-up role he fits beautifully. We (and by “we” I mean “I”) are desperate for a reliever who can close out those suspenseful 4-5 run leads, and sticks to his game, even after he’s given up a couple of runs. It’s a baseball staple, like flour or salt in the kitchen, but we haven’t had one in our bullpen for the last couple years. Heilman, in his workmanlike way, looks like the answer to a serious Diamondbacks problem.
"We...probed them all the way through. They're completely meat." — Terry Bisson
by Scrbl on Nov 21, 2009 8:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Great point.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Nov 20, 2009 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
heilman
he had an era over 4 last season not good
by serudnick on Nov 22, 2009 3:32 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
As Good as it Gets?
It’s hard to say that this aquisition doesn’t dissappoint me. A lot of posters have put up some numbers for Heilman that makes it look like he could be productive for us, and it’s good to have that hope right now.
But is this is kind of move you were hoping for when the FO said they were changing gears and going to spend money to make the bullpen a strength this season?
There are certainly moves yet to be made, but for me Heilman represents a half-assed attempt to address one of the team’s weak spots. It could work, but he’s not going to turn the pen into an area of stregth all by himself, and now we have 2M and two prospects less to work with.
by Counsellmember on Nov 23, 2009 2:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
2 prospects? 2 guys who were very unlikely to make the MLB team ever and were almost guaranteed to make zero impact, even if they did.
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8
by njjohn on Nov 24, 2009 2:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Maine
Could have been a LOOGY, which we don’t need with Zavada and Schlereth.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Nov 25, 2009 5:56 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
So, to clarify,
I’m agreeing with you. No need to acknowledge the prospect loss. Maine is old and wasn’t amongst the top thirty prospects in the system. White was just a year younger and even lower. First-basemen without power aren’t’t really valuable… at all.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Nov 25, 2009 6:01 AM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
You don't throw away any players
Absolutely those guys most likely would never have made a bit of difference to the big club. But you can’t claim that Heilman has value, but the prospects it took to get him don’t. Those guys could have been player # 5 and 6 in a trade for Soria (example only, dont take me to task on why we should or should not trade for Soria).
They may only be warm bodies, but they used to be our warm bodies to do with as we please. Now they are the Cubs’. In the end, it’s simply my opinion that I would rather the club have spent more for a better reliever, rather than a little for a guy who probably won’t make a difference.
Of course, Im still hoping Heilman gets a shot at SP first.
by Counsellmember on Nov 25, 2009 1:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Relative to the major-league veteran piece gain
The prospect loss is infinitesimal in proportion. You’re trading a LOOGY-ceiling guy and a fringe prospect for a major-league bullpen piece. Always a good deal.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Nov 25, 2009 1:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The thing you’re ignoring is the fact that the minors and prospects aren’t static. New prospects are added every year and every year the club has to evaluate the progress of any given prospects and the room they have in the organization given the incoming talent. If, in the eyes of management you have an older prospect who is just jamming up the organization, then you absolutely should get rid of him.
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8
by njjohn on Nov 25, 2009 3:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
See: Ryne White
With Wheeler, Goldschmidt, Davidson, maybe Borchering if he has to move off 3rd, and maybe Helm if he has to move off 3rd. That’s a lot of first basemen White was in the way of.
Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"
by IHateSouthBend on Nov 25, 2009 5:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Call them what you will...
they are in someone else’s system now, no use to us.
by Counsellmember on Nov 24, 2009 2:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Point is, the management had determined they were no use to us even in our system.
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8
by njjohn on Nov 25, 2009 3:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
If you have some argument to mount where you can repudiate the fact that these guys should have been valued in the top 20 or should have been fast tracked to the big club in the next year, then make it… otherwise, I don’t understand the point of the argument.
"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8
by njjohn on Nov 25, 2009 3:25 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
On the off chance anyone is still reading this post...
My “arguement” (lets not let this get too heated) is stated above…
“In the end, it’s simply my opinion that I would rather the club have spent more for a better reliever, rather than a little for a guy who probably won’t make a difference.”
I absolutely get your assertion that these guys have almost no value. I agree with you. My problems with the move are in the following order:
1. The bullpen spot being used for someone that doesn’t look to me like an 8-9th inning guy (absolutely I could be wrong, and I hope I am).
2. Paying 2M for said guy (roughly 1/7th of our winter fun money)
3. Giving up prospects (regardless of quality) for said guy.
All this highlighted by the fact he was going to be non-tendered for a 1.5M contract. Is Heilman THAT important to our plans that we couldn’t take the chance of him getting away?
Lastly, just want to state that the move does not make me throw up in my mouth or anything of that nature. Just not the addition to the bullpen I was anticipating. If the FO can further shore up the pen, get a stable SP, and the veteran bat they’ve mentioned, without dealing away anyone integral to our future, then I will be happy as a clam.
by Counsellmember on Nov 29, 2009 6:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

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