SB Nation Awards: Cy Young

by Jim McLennan on Nov 11, 2009 1:04 PM EST in News Comment 23 comments

The Giants got a great deal from China on some remaindered figures, and are preparing a commemorative give away to celebrate Lincecum winning the SB Nation Cy Young...

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The Cy Young may be considered among the most straightforward of all the awards. For MVP, there's no clear-cut definition of what "Most Valuable" means; for Rookie of the Year, there's debate over whether Japanese players should be considered, whether playing time is imporant and if it's future potential or current numbers that matter; and even for Manager of the Year, you can argue over how much it's an award for front-office work, in constructing a roster, and how much credit should be given to the man in the dugout. The Cy Young, however, is for the best pitcher: surely not much room for argument there.

Well... That might be the case in the American League this season, but in our league... Not so much. After the jump we'll see how the definition of "best" isn't so clear-cut as one might think.

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Tim Lincecum	San Francisco Giants	18	13	-	129
2	Chris Carpenter	St. Louis Cardinals	9	4	7	64
3	Adam Wainwright	St. Louis Cardinals	4	4	10	42
4	Javier Vazquez	Atlanta Braves	-	5	7	22
5	Dan Haren	Arizona Diamondbacks	-	3	4	13
6	Ubaldo Jimenez	Colorado Rockies	-	1	1	4
7	Cliff Lee	Philadelphia Phillies	-	-	1	1
8	Jair Jurrjens	Atlanta Braves	-	-	1	1

O RLY? I'm pretty surprised by the landslide in favor of Timmeh. CC - Carpenter, not Sabathia - was a clear victor in ERA+, and to me, that's easily the most important category. In the absence of any significant mitigating factors, stopping the opposition from scoring runs is what good pitching is all about, and Carpenter was the best in the National League at doing that. For your interest, I pulled the relevant statistics for each nominee out of Baseball-Reference.com's Play Index v2.0 [even more lovely than before: you can now pick columns and do all manner of cool stuff], and they're shown below. Well, except for Cliff Lee, who pitched less than eighty innings. Quite how this qualifies him for the Cy Young escapes me - but apparently, one voter felt otherwise...

Rk	Player	ERA+	W	L	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	ERA	HR	OPS
1	Chris Carpenter	185	17	4	192.2	156	49	48	38	144	2.24	7	.581
2	Tim Lincecum	173	15	7	225.1	168	69	62	68	261	2.48	10	.561
3	Jair Jurrjens	160	14	10	215.0	186	71	62	75	152	2.60	15	.660
4	Adam Wainwright	158	19	8	233.0	216	75	68	66	212	2.63	17	.646
8	Javier Vazquez	145	15	10	219.1	181	75	70	44	238	2.87	20	.612
10	Danny Haren	143	14	10	229.1	192	83	80	38	223	3.14	27	.635
14	Ubaldo Jimenez	130	15	12	218.0	183	87	84	85	198	3.47	13	.635

I voted Carpenter, Lincecum, Jurrjens - straight ERA+ - and while I expected a few voters to be bedazzled by the gaudy bauble of Lincecums strikeouts, as opposed to Carpenter's better ERA and WHIP, I didn't think the margin would be 2:1. Nor did I expect 35% of voters to ignore Carpenter entirely,. I'm wondering if perhaps the St. Louis vote was somewhat split between Carpenter and Wainwright, with the latter's league-leading total in wins and innings distracting voters from CC? Personally, when you get up beyond about 180 innings, I don't think you can use this as a yard-stick, as the number thrown begins to depend on things like managerial style, bullpen strength, and in any given NL start, when the pitcher's spot is due to bat.

I couldn't quite bring myself to vote for Haren. If the ballot had been held at the break, he'd have been my sure-fire choice for #1 - and he got jobbed for starting the All-Star game. But a 4.62 ERA in the second-half [and later performances are always weighted more heavily by voters] dropped him out of contention. Not, however, as low as Ubaldo Jimenez. Russ and Rox Girl of Purple Row have already 'fessed to having been the votes; I think we should charitably assume it's a result of them being so used to pitching mediocrity at Coors. Since 1993, 131 qualifying NL starters have had a bettter ERA+ than Jimenez this year. One played for Colorado (Joe Kennedy, 134 in 2004).

Over in the American League, it was almost a unanimous decision for Zack Greinke, with only one stubborn voter holding out for Roy Halladay. Can't argue with the choice there, because since the game became integrated, only three AL pitchers have had a better ERA+ than Greinke's 203: Martinez (1999, 2000, 2003), Clemens (1990, 1997) and Ron Guidre (1978). If I had a vote, I'd probably have put Halladay ahead of Verlander, due to his far superior ERA+ (157 vs. 132), but there's not really too much to argue with here.

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Zack Greinke	Kansas City Royals	28	1	-	143
2	Felix Hernandez	Seattle Mariners	-	17	6	57
3	Justin Verlander	Detroit Tigers	-	8	9	33
4	Roy Halladay	Toronto Blue Jays	1	2	11	22
5	CC Sabathia	New York Yankees	-	1	2	5
6	Jon Lester	Boston Red Sox	-	-	1	1

Finally, Baseball Prospectus unveiled their Internet Baseball Awards, which are an open ballot, in which anyone can vote. This leads to some results best described as "interesting": for example, I'd like to thank Mrs. Gutierrez for making her son Juan #1 on her NL Cy Young ballot. And all hail Miguel Montero, =90th for NL MVP! But perhaps the most amusing numbers can be found at the bottom of the Manager of the Year ballot, where someone voted Bob Melvin as Manager of the Year. Boy, those 29 games must have really impressed someone. Diamondhacks, was that you? :-)

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Wow, a little surprised by this one

I don’t think this will mirror the actual Cy Young voting, I think one of the Cardinals will take the title. Here’s my notes.

Cy Young
1. Chris Carpenter – ERA leader, 2nd in wins with fewer starts, more CGs than Wainwright
2. Tim Lincecum – 2nd in ERA, 3rd in wins, more CGs & SOs than Wainwright (4/2 vs 1/0), strikeout leader. Really good season, better than Wainwright, just not good enough to catch Carpenter.
3. Adam Wainwright – win leader, 4th in ERA

I too couldn’t vote for Dan, he just really fell off the second half… Carpenter had an amazing season..

Things ’Skins has in common with foulpole for 400, please. -- soco

by snakecharmer on Nov 11, 2009 1:10 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

On the plus side

If Lincecum does win anothe Cy Young, it’d mean he’s gonna cost the Giants even more in arbitration. So they’ll have less money to upgrade the woeful 2009 offense [which will shortly be appearing in panto as “Pablo and the Seven Dwarfs”]. So, I’ll be cheering to Timmeh to win, and wring the Giants even harder in 2010.

"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil

by Jim McLennan on Nov 11, 2009 1:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I suppose an argument could be made for Lincecum given the 30 extra innings. I hope he wins.

"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8

by njjohn on Nov 11, 2009 2:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ubaldo

Russ and Roxgirl… you ought to be ashamed. I mean, really? C’mon now.

"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8

by njjohn on Nov 11, 2009 2:08 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Seriously?

You are surprised by this.. why?

"If there's nothing wrong with me, maybe there's something wrong with the universe!"

by unnamedDBacksfan on Nov 11, 2009 3:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t care how biased you are, there is no argument that has a shred of credibility that would argue Jiminez was better than any of the top three on this list.

"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8

by njjohn on Nov 11, 2009 11:03 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

Adam Wainwright

threw the most innings in the NL(233), his team won more of his starts (23) than any other NL starter, and perhaps most importantly, his team had a higher Win % (.657) in his starts than any other CY contender.

I understand a good deal of that is beyond his control, and he received excellent support, but he also had a huge amount to do with his success. His 158 ERA+ is right in line with the past three CYA winners (Webb 152, Peavy 157, Lincecum 169). I think there’s a tendency to discount that, because Carpenter and Leroy were higher this year, but over the years monitoring Webby’s races we’ve learned that ERA+, while certainly useful, is also pretty volatile. Among pitchers this good, the ERA+ gap between the top four guys in 2009 could be two (or even one) subpar start.

So I weigh that kind of Carpenter advantage against the fact Wainwright made six more starts than Chris…again, at this general level of performance, that’s a chasm. Carpenter was great, better per inning, but missed more than a freakin’ month. I dont feel his ERA+ or WHIP superiority counterbalances that. It’s close and a fair discussion, but Wainwright is no La Marr Hoyt or Pete Vukovich here, and I’d give him the edge.

Lincecum was also better per inning (than AW), and was more durable than CC. It’s easy to argue he was the “best pitcher” and I wont argue the point. My “problem” with Leroy is the Giants were 19-13 in his starts. Wainwright was 23-11. Lincecum contributed to more theoretical wins, Wainwright to more actual ones.

I havent examined underlying schedules, etc, but right now my ballot is trending:

Wainwright (233 IP, 158 ERA+, 23-11 team W/L)
Lincecum (225 IP, 176 ERA+, 19-13 team W/L)
Matt Cain (217 IP, 151 ERA+, 21-12 team W/L)
Carpenter (193 IP, 183 ERA+, 18-10 team W/L)
Dan Haren (229 IP, 146 ERA+, 19-14 team W/L)
Javier Vazquez (219 IP, 143 ERA+, 18-14…)
Josh Johnson (209 IP, 131 ERA+, 22-11 team W/L)

If the FO is the focus of anything, something is seriously wrong with the picture ! - unnamedDBacksfan 2/20/09

by Diamondhacks on Nov 11, 2009 10:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Team Winning Percentage

But team winning percentage has as much to do with the team offense as the pitcher. Both Lincecum and Wainwright would give up around 2 runs per 7 innings, but the Cardinals, with Pujols/Holliday, etc were much more likely to score enough runs to win the game. That’s not really Lincecum’s fault.

by Amit on Nov 12, 2009 12:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

See, I was impressed with the fact

that in 6 fewer starts (I think?), Carpenter had a better ERA, just a few number of wins less, and more complete game shutouts compared to Wainwright, who as you point out had more chances to be better. I liked Carpenter taking more advantage of his fewer opportunities.

Things ’Skins has in common with foulpole for 400, please. -- soco

by snakecharmer on Nov 12, 2009 1:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Carpenter's a better pitcher

than Wainwright, when they’re both healthy. I dont think there’s any argument about that. But Carpenter’s body broke down, because the physical demands placed on today’s elite 200 inning guys are enormous.

It’s not his fault certainly, but when you talk about opportunity, they all had an equitable chance when the season started. They’re not underutilized rookies, languishing a month too long in Triple AAA due to an oblivious organization, or elite stars of yesteryear whose MLB seasons were truncated by the color of their skin. In terms of counting stats especially, Carp, Wainwright, Lincecum, etc began the 2009 MLB season on a relatively level playing field.

It’s incredibly taxing to do what they do. Extremely high ‘mortality’ rate, if you will. In terms of MVP or Cy Young voting, the ones that survive 220-230 innings at that level should be credited for doing so – not adjusted down as recipients of good fortune or “more chances”.

If the FO is the focus of anything, something is seriously wrong with the picture ! - unnamedDBacksfan 2/20/09

by Diamondhacks on Nov 12, 2009 5:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

As noted in my piece

Especially in the NL, I am not too inclined to draw much of a distinction between innings pitched once a certain threshold is reached. How many innings a starter goes in any given outing depends not just on his skill, but a myriad of other factos. Off the top of my head, there’s the score in the game, the situation when he comes up to bat, managerial tendencies, the status of the bullen (strong/weak, rested/tired), how good a hitter he is, and even whether the next day’s starter is liable to go deep or not. All these will play into the decision of whether a pitcher hits for himself or gets lifted, and are almost entirely outside his control.

In innings per start, Lincecum, Wainwright, Haren and Carpenter were all in the top five NL starters, with numbers ranging from 6.9-7.0. I don’t think Carpenter should be punished for straining a muscle in his side.

"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil

by Jim McLennan on Nov 12, 2009 7:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Solid evidence

you’ve reached the only meaningful threshold here – gaudy contempt for Tim Lincecum.

If the FO is the focus of anything, something is seriously wrong with the picture ! - unnamedDBacksfan 2/20/09

by Diamondhacks on Nov 12, 2009 8:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, putting him #2 is "gaudy contempt"

We’ll take the eye-rolling at your over-reaction as read, shall we?

"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil

by Jim McLennan on Nov 13, 2009 12:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's not gaudy

to pick someone other than Lincecum. What’s gaudy is this sudden rationale you’ve expelled from Uranus, effectively cheating a well worn object of your disdain from the award.

Where was this talk of ‘thresholds’ in 2008, when Ryan Dempster had a higher ERA+ than Brandon Webb, but pitched “only” 206 innings? Where are the WAR/RAR metrics from your beloved Fangraphs, which show Wainwright slightly more valuable than Carpenter – and Lincecum significanty more valuable than both?

It’s one thing to seek out the most dynamic CY candidate by valuing quality over quantity, as I did in the RotY thread, and that sort of approach would favor Carpenter over Wainwright. It’s not the most robust CY evaluation, but at least there’s an integrity to it. The ‘problem’ here, as if you didnt already know, is that Lincecum is every bit as dynamic as Carpenter – and threw thirty more innings.

How do you get around that? Shovel nonsense about how thirty or more innings suddenly dont matter and that the seasonal innings of elite starters are somehow beyond their control because of the inherent vagueries of individual games. This breathtaking leap and and shallow extrapolation enable you to dismiss Lincecum the only way you know how – by masquerading prejudices as useful analysis.

Nobody’s “punishing” Carpenter. His Cardinals were punished when he didnt piitch for five weeks – and you’re punishing the standards of good faith analysis.

cheers

If the FO is the focus of anything, something is seriously wrong with the picture ! - unnamedDBacksfan 2/20/09

by Diamondhacks on Nov 13, 2009 11:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

LOL

A “well worn object of my disdain”? You mean the guy I voted #1 last season and #2 this? Yeah, I really hate the guy and “dismiss” him, don’t I?

Once again, it’s painfully obvious you’re reduced to making shit up, in order to try and start a fight. Have fun.

"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil

by Jim McLennan on Nov 14, 2009 1:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not trying to start a fight...

just documenting this latest descent into madness ;-) Pick anyone you want. I just think it would add clarity if you conceded, “Lincecum’s been a competitive and sociocultural thorn in my side for a while now, so I’ve abandoned respectable evaluation in favor of ad hoc thresholds designed to devalue his comparative durability. I hope nobody minds.”

Your 2008 nod to Timmeh does put to rest my careless presumption a pockmarked “Lincecum is Gay” dartboard dangles from your lav door, but only undiscerning buffoons didnt vote for Lincecum then. It doesnt disprove anti-Tim bias, any more than a vote for Obama precludes one from racial prejudice.

One as yet unexplored CYA consideration is opponent strength. Carpenter faced just ten winning teams in 28 starts. Lincecum faced fifteen winners, Wainwright sixteen. Feel free to examine the game logs, but regardless how one defines ‘bad team’ or ‘bad offense’, it’s quite clear Carpenter not only pitched fewer innings, but did so against markedly inferior competition.

cheers

If the FO is the focus of anything, something is seriously wrong with the picture ! - unnamedDBacksfan 2/20/09

by Diamondhacks on Nov 16, 2009 6:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

One can only assume

That ’Hacks is currently carrying on this same thread of discussion with 12 other SBN voters, right?

"Spam headline: 'YOU ARE CHOSEN!' Oh, Morpheus, you're getting pretty lazy."
"Or they are informing you you are Jewish in a very lame conversion campaign."
"In either case, sending me spam is not the way to invite me to Zion."

by kishi on Nov 16, 2009 8:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If other SBN voters

chose to butt a particularly inane ‘argument’ into a dialogue I was having with another poster, as Jim did, or had a history of ridiculing people’s grasp of ‘basic statistical principles’, as Jim does, or ran the SBN site of my favorite team, as Jim does, then sure, I’d be inclined to respond to those other people in a like manner.

Of course, none of that applies.

If the FO is the focus of anything, something is seriously wrong with the picture ! - unnamedDBacksfan 2/20/09

by Diamondhacks on Nov 16, 2009 10:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Attack on Jim’s integrity aside, I actually think I’ve been convinced by this argument for Lincecum. I highly value IPs as each additional IP benefits the entire pitching staff. 30+ extra innings for Lincecum over Carpenter would wipe out the 8 ERA pts IMO. Carpenter shouldn’t be nailed for missing a month and a half (after all, pitching 192 innings in the length of time he pitched them is impressive). But Lincecum SHOULD get a bonus for his very high IP total.

"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8

by njjohn on Nov 14, 2009 9:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And that's fair enough

But to me, the Cy Young isn’t about who’s the healthiest pitcher, which is the vast bulk of the reason why Lincecum threw thirty extra innings. The difference between Timmeh and CC in hitters retired per start was only about one extra batter retired every three outings – to me, that isn’t enough to overcome the difference in runs allowed.

"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil

by Jim McLennan on Nov 15, 2009 12:12 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs