Livan Hernandez? Livan Hernandez?

Per Nick Piecoro, "The only thing we can give you at this point in the day is a fifth-starter possibility: familiar face Livan Hernandez. We’ve heard the Diamondbacks are considering bringing him back, most likely more for his role in the clubhouse and how he can help young players than for his potential performance."

"it’s clear the club needs more starting pitching depth beyond just Billy Buckner, Bryan Augenstein and Kevin Mulvey. Hernandez probably would be about as effective as those guys, perhaps providing roughly league-average production for a fifth-starter. There are a lot of other options for fifth starters -- another Cuban, Jose Contreras, is one that would make sense -- but the Diamondbacks always have been appreciative of the intangibles Hernandez brings to the clubhouse."

I'd rather see Billy Buckner in the role of #5 starter than Livan. We don't really have any shortage of potential #5's - it's the gaping hole left by the departures of Davis and Garland that needs to be filled. And Livan is certainly not up to that these days.

Elsewhere, the Mets are interested in Chris Snyder - apparently they wanted some kind of swap for their second-baseman Luis Castillo. "That initial foray proved unsuccessful. But the Mets do remain interested in Snyder."

3 months ago Jim McLennan 21 comments 0 recs |

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Gotta

bring those ’07 vibes back somehow.

I am Shiva the Destroyer, your harbinger of doom this evening.

by soco on Nov 10, 2009 6:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Livan......Livan likes his money

*Elton John pip pip pop pop tally-ho

I laugh until my head comes off.

by edbigghead on Nov 10, 2009 6:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

This has

“Danger, Will Robinson” written allllllllll over it…………

I like Livo but I don’t think he can bring what we need in a #4 starter…..

Things ’Skins has in common with foulpole for 400, please. -- soco

by snakecharmer on Nov 10, 2009 7:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hey

Are you casting doubt on the powerful concept of Veteran Presence! in the clubhouse? Geez.

"Spam headline: 'YOU ARE CHOSEN!' Oh, Morpheus, you're getting pretty lazy."
"Or they are informing you you are Jewish in a very lame conversion campaign."
"In either case, sending me spam is not the way to invite me to Zion."

by kishi on Nov 10, 2009 7:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Luis Castillo?

gross

by rapdawg on Nov 10, 2009 8:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I finally get my internet reconnected

And this is my reward?

Wear your own fur.

by Sprankton on Nov 11, 2009 2:20 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Do Not Want

The list of free agents available this year has a whole lot of “do not wants”, but Livan is about the most “do not” of them all. We need (at least) a quality starter, not a ‘clubhouse presence’.

Key to the game: Score More

by pygalgia on Nov 11, 2009 9:29 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Idk about this...

Livan has been pitching better since his awful 2007 season with us where he posted a 5.77 FIP and a 0.4 WAR. The sad thing is in the past two years Livan has not been that much worse then Garland or Davis.

Ew at Castillo, his defense is on the decline and James is projecting him to post a wOBA of .318 in 2010. Pass.

by cactus_cooler on Nov 11, 2009 9:31 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

better than 2007???

O really?
ERA+
2007 91 (Hernandez); 111 (Garland); 112 (Davis)
2008 71 (Hernandez); 91 (Garland); 108 (Davis)
2009 76 (Hernandez); 111 (Garland); 111 (Davis)

I’d say that’s a whole heck of a lot worse.

"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8

by njjohn on Nov 11, 2009 2:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ew

ERA+ is better than plain ol ERA but still a awful stat judge a pitcher. I was focusing on the past two seasons (2008 and 2009).

2008
-———
Livan- 180 IP, K/9 3.35, BB/9 2.15, 4.94 FIP, 1.4 WAR
Jon Garland- 196 IP, K/9 4.12, BB/9 2.70, 4.76 FIP, 1.9 WAR
Doug Davis- 146 IP, K/9 6.90, BB/9 3.95, 4.15 FIP, 2.4 WAR

2009
-———
Livan- 183 IP, K/9 5.00, BB/9 3.28, 4.44 FIP, 1.7 WAR
Jon Garland- 204 IP, K/9 4.81, BB/9 2.69, 4.48 FIP, 2.4 WAR
Doug Davis- 203 IP, K/9 6.46, BB/9 4.56, 4.84 FIP, 1.7 WAR

I am not saying Hernandez is Davis or Garlands equal, both are better then Livan but like I said, not by much.

by cactus_cooler on Nov 12, 2009 11:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Stop me if I'm wrong

But FIP [and thus, WAR, on which it’s heavily based] is not park-adjusted. In 2008 and 2009, Livan was mostly working in some pitcher-friendly parks, while Davis and (in 2009) Garland were at Chase. I think if Livan was to come back to the NL West, and make 18-19 starts in Chase and Coors, his FIP would inflate like a startled Jon Rauch.

"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil

by Jim McLennan on Nov 12, 2009 3:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

To expound further

Using xFIP instead

2008
Davis 4;46
Garland 4.65
Hernandez: 4.87 (with the Twins, where he pitched most)

2009
Davis: 4.78
Garland: 4.82
Hernandez: 4.96 (with the Mets, where he pitched most)

"Win, or die" -- Marquise de Merteuil

by Jim McLennan on Nov 12, 2009 6:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yep. And I’d disagree with the statement that ERA+ is an “awful stat” to judge a pitcher. I’d say the truth lies somewhere b/w xFIP and ERA+. They’re two helpful points of comparison. And both of them underscore the fact that Hernandez is no good.

"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8

by njjohn on Nov 12, 2009 7:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Open palm

Insert forehead.

BUT THE INTANGIBLES

by SenSurround on Nov 11, 2009 2:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Just a terrible idea.

Makes ZERO sense. There’s no way that the combination of those three pitchers (pitching at league minimum) does worse than Hernandez’ 76 ERA+ of 2009. And even if they were to be that horrifically bad, at least we’d know what we have in the system.

"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8

by njjohn on Nov 11, 2009 2:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

If we're looking at scenarios that don't spell out doomsday

The Reds just announced they need to slash payroll and may be willing to part with Aaron Harang and/or Bronson Arroyo. I’d be happy with either of them if we didn’t have to give up too much and the Reds ate a little of their contract.

by SenSurround on Nov 11, 2009 2:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Can we look at Livan a bit more in depth please?

18 quality starts is a lot. He’s a boom/bust guy, he’ll win you games, but he’ll certainly single-handedly lose you some. For a fifth or even a mediocre fourth, that’s not too unreasonable. I’d be willing to see if it doesn’t work. Heck, who says Buckner can’t be a fourth? With the way he pitched down the stretch plus another summer to rest then build up some strength and a few spring training innings to sharpen his stuff he might be good for that slot.

Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"

by IHateSouthBend on Nov 11, 2009 8:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs