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This Week in AZ Baseball: prospects injury news, winter ball report and a "to-do" list.

We ate at Mrs. White's Golden Rule Cafe last night - it's the one on Jefferson, almost diagonally opposite the NE corner of Chase Field. First time we've actually ever been, even though I've driven past it on the way to work every day for almost three years now! I believe it was one of Orlando Hudson's favorite places to eat when he was with the Diamondbacks, and do have to say, the Chicken Fried Steak was phenomenal, a deliciously-moist concoction which has supplanted the previous best in Phoenix, that of the Texaz Grill on 16th Street.  The walls are covered with signatures from previous famous diners; a lot of sports people in general, though I'd hardly have called the food part of a nutritious diet. Junior Spivey's signature was just above our table.

Anyway, leading off the news this week is that our 2007 first-round draft-pick, Jarrod Parker, will have Tommy John surgery on Wednesday. We also take a look at the performances of our players in winter ball, and paw over some suggestions for what the Diamondbacks need to do over the winter. Join us after the jump for all that, and more

Star-divide

The Diamondbacks first-round pick in 2007, Jarrod Parker, will be having Tommy John surgery on Wednesday. The team had initially hoped to avoid surgery for the problem, which first cropped up at the end of July, but the issue didn't appear to resolve itself, so an operation has been scheduled. It means he will miss the entire 2010 season, and it's likely that 2011 will largely be spent learning how to pitch. According to Tom Gordon, who had the surgery in 1999, "It takes a good two years to really have a good feel again." Still, Parker is young enough - he doesn't turn 21 until next month - that time is on his side. There'll be more on this next week, as I'm writing one of my medical pieces, detailing what the procedure entails, the rehab and Parker's future chances.

He wasn't the only Arizona prospect to suffer an injury setback this week. While Roque Mercedes may have one of the coolest names in the Diamondbacks organization (just ahead of Tyson van Winkle and Vincent Bongiovanni), the pitcher won't be taking the mound for a bit. Nick Piecoro reports our prospect was hit in the face by a line-drive, down in the Dominican Republic his injuries resulting in surgery which will keep him out for about six weeks. To add insult to injury, it was one of his team-mates that was responsible, as Mercedes was throwing batting-practice at the time. I bet that Roque-d him...

As the above paragraph suggests, Winter League ball is under way, with the Dominican and Mexican leagues now joining the Arizona Fall League. I've  got a useful link for you, which allows you to see all the D-backs' winter ball statistics in one convenient location. The one line which jumps out is Conor Jackson, who has apparently turned into the Incredible Hulk following his encounter with Valley Fever, and is hitting .533/.682/.933. At this rate, major-leaguers will be queuing up to inhale some of our good ol' Arizonan fungal spores - right up until Bud gets around to banning them as an illegal PED. Which,  based on  how long he took with steroids, will probably be around the year 2027...

It certainly increased the chance of him being offered a contract by the Diamondbacks. I believe the rules are, that for arbitration-eligible players such as Jackson, we can't offer less than 80% of his previous salary, which for Conor would be $2.4m. If he was still unable to do anything more than become acquainted with Judge Judy and her daytime TV companions, that might not be worth the risk But going 8-for-15 with seven walks? Yeah, I think we'll see a contract with his name on it being drawn up by the front-office. [As an aside, Mrs. SnakePit wonders how Conor is coping there - after all, he's not the most Hispanic of players. She wonders if the team sent an interpreter with him]

Also enjoying his time in the Dominican is Tony Abreu, who is 9-for-22 with an OPS of 1.026. Daniel Cabrera had a solid first outing, throwing four innings and allowing only one run - perhaps more importantly, he also walked only one batter. As we saw during the regular season for Arizona and Washington [42 walks, four hit batters and 11 wild pitches in 51 innings of work], control is by far Cabrera's biggest issue. Jose Marte and Jordan Norberto have barely got started, but have combined for two scoreless innings out of the bullpen for Estrellas de Oriente

Not so much success for AZ pitchers in the hitter-friendly Arizona Fall League. Our four hurlers - Bryan Augenstein, Tom Laine, Scott Maine and Cesar Valdez - have combined for 11.2 innings of work and thirteen earned runs, on seventeen hits and ten walks. Maine and Valdez in partiocular seem to have been infected with Cabrera-itis, having handed out a total of eight free passes in 3.2 frames. At the plate, Brandon Allen has struggled, hitting .211 (8-for-38), though has ten walks, resulting in a respectable .375 OBP. Cole Gillespie is impressing, going 8-for-20 with five walks and only one K. Pedro Ciriaco is also doing well: 9-for-21 with an OPS over a thousand.

Finally in this area - though I'm not quite sure if this counts as "winter ball," since it's actually their summer - the Australian season is about to get under way, naturally featuring our own Trent Oeltjen. Here's a piece on baseball down under, and it looks like this could become another off-season destination for players. "The MLB and the Australian Baseball Federation have joined in a unique partnership to unveil a competition that will seek to attract US stars keen to tune up ahead of their home season. The MLB, buoyed by the success of its joint venture Australian academy on the Gold Coast, which has seen 126 players graduate to pro leagues around the world since 2000, will bankroll 75 per cent of the competition."

A potential financial cloud on the horizon for the team. The Phoenix Business Journal says " The next shoe to drop in the legal fight over special tax breaks and subsidies for developers could be over the 100 percent tax exemptions ponied up for high-profile projects. That action could come after the Arizona Supreme Court decides whether a $97 million tax break for the CityNorth mixed-use development in northeast Phoenix is constitutional under state law... A lawsuit [is] expected to be filed over government property lease excise taxes, or GPLETs. These funding mechanisms allow government entities that own land to lease it back to private developers and businesses, which then pay lower-than-normal property taxes." Currently, the Diamondbacks pay no property taxes because they lease Chase from the Maricopa County Stadium District. Insert rant about taxpayer-funded pro sports facilities here.

Billy Buckner was the winner of the 2009 Diamondbacks' award for Minor-League Pitcher of the Year. That may seem a bit of a surprise, given his lackluster performances early in the season with the big club, but when pitching for Reno, he went 9-3 with a 3.32 ERA. Looking at the other numbers, a couple of other candidates include Berling Cruz, who had a 2.23 ERA in fourteen games (thirteen starts) for the Diamondbacks in the Dominican Summer League, and Michael Belfiore's 2.11 ERA over 58 innings with Missoula. But I'm sure Zephon and IHSB will talk more about these guys in their end-of-season reviews.

Nick Piecoro has come up with his to-do list in the off-season for the Diamondbacks. Not too much to argue with there: little doubt we need a starting pitcher, a first-baseman and a couple of arms in the bullpen. However, I would question the amounts allocated by Nick, of the $28m we have to spend, especially given the names he mentions. I don't think $7m will be anywhere near to get someone like Jason Marquis, who earned close to ten million this season, and won 15 games with the Rockies. I doubt a 30% pay-cut is anywhere imminent in his future. The other suggestion, Brad Penny, who made only six starts, is more likely for the cash: $7m will only get you someone whose 2009 was marred either by injury or their performance.

I'd be surprised if we end up spending more, as Nick thinks, on the bullpen - especially as we don;t need a closer, or even probably a set-up man. Eight million dollars therefore seems a bit high. I think in Chad Qualls, Juan Gutierrez, Esmerling Vasquez and Clay Zavada, we have the makings of a fairly-solid bullpen, and you can add Blaine Boyer, who was very impressive in his time with us, or possibly even Daniel Schlereth to the mix. I think we just need a couple of reliable middle-inning guys, nothing spectacular or too expensive. Overpaying for relievers is not something I'd say the team needs to do - we have more significant needs.

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Ouch

$28 million is going to be tough with all of the rough spots the Diamondbacks probably have to fill.

Without looking at 2011’s potential payroll, I almost wonder if it would be better to get two or three really good guys instead of trying to fill every hole. I’m having a hard time believing we can fill all the gaps for 2010 and still be competitive.

I am Shiva the Destroyer, your harbinger of doom this evening.

by soco on Oct 24, 2009 9:50 PM EDT reply actions  

TJ TJ TJ.... FRACK!

I knew it….

I have a shrine dedicated to Mark Reynolds, wherein I keep his bobblehead, signed baseball, and jersey T-shirt.

by DbacksSkins on Oct 25, 2009 12:27 AM EDT reply actions  

Well

If Tom Gordon is to be believed, Parker will regain his feel around age 22, pitch in Reno, then be in the majors starting at 23. Prime years, anybody?

Humor me, I’m trying to stay positive…

Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"

by IHateSouthBend on Oct 26, 2009 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

I posted my to do list for the dbacks over at the dbbp, but i thought i should repost it here.

This is going to be a bit lengthy, but i thought i’d give my thoughts on the moves i’d like to see happen this offseason, as well my thoughts on our first base, secondbase, and outfield situation.

1. Pick up Webb’s option. revisit extension talks once he’s proven that he’s healthy, and can still pitch effectively. probably not going to get a discount here, but having a solid 1/2 around is worth the cost

2. Sign a free agent starting pitcher. Randy Wolf, Piniero, Penny, or Marquis would be bueno, if we can afford it.. I think maybe making a gamble on an injury risk like sheets, harden, or even pavano could be worth it, especially if they’re signed on an incentive based contract.

3. Bring in a couple bullpen arms. Looking at a list of Free agents, I have no idea who we’d target. Bring back Lyon maybe?

4. If we’re going to sign any free agent position players, I’d like to see Akinori Iwamura or Adam everett to play second, and possibly Nick Johnson to play first.. The two positions i’m most worried about are Second base, and First base. More so about the former.

The First base situation:

The reason why I’m suggesting Nick Johnson is a) he’d be cheap, since he’s fragile as glass. b) He’d provide some much needed OBP to the lineup(look how much he helped the marlins lineup after he was traded this year) C) If he does get injured(and he will), we have two capable back ups in Brandon Allen and Conor Jackson

Honestly, even if we don’t sign a FA first basemen, i think we’re fine. I’m all for having Brandon Allen as our starting first basemen, and I think he may surprise a lot of people around the leaugue. He’s solid-above average defensively(great foot work), has loads of power, and his OBP and walk% is trending upwards. He’ll have his struggles, but luckily we have Conor Jackson around in case that plan fails.

Speaking of Conor, I’d like to see him as our starting left fielder, or in some kind of platoon role sliding back and forth between left field and first base. I think he’s going to be just fine next year, and will be in the running for comeback player of the year.

The Second Base Situation:

Second base is another story. We essentially have two unknowns in Ryal and Abreu, and one known(somewhat) in Roberts. Ryal has some good pop for a second basemen, and i think if he was given a full year’s worth of at bats, he’d hit 15 HRS with a batting line along the lines of 265/340/450. (would you take that from a second basemen?) Ryal doesn’t walk all that much(more often that abreu though in his minor league career), but he does strike out more than you like to see. And that’s one thing our lineup does not need, more strike outs.

Abreu on the other hand is a slick fielding, batting average driven, doubles hitter. The most strikeouts he’s had in a season is 77 in 523ABS. On the other hand, he doesn’t walk all that much either, with his walk percentage falling in around 8% or less. I think the most similar player offensively on the team i could compare him to is Parra. I think if Abreu is given a full seasons worth of at abs, i’d think a batting line of 290/340/400 would be a relatively optimistic, but realistic expectation of him.

Ryan Roberts would be a viable option for second base. He absolutely mashes LHP, but he’s below average against RHP. I can’t find really another data on his platoon splits in the minors, but i’m going to go guess that it’s probably a trend. So if Roberts is our second basemen, he needs to platoon with a player that can mash against RHP. Looking at both Abreu and Ryal’s minor league platoons, Abreu absolutely mashes RHP, and Ryal hits lefties better than righties.

So it appears, in terms of in house options, our best best for second base next year would be to platoon Roberts or Ryal against LHP, and Abreu against RHP.

However, I really like to see the team go out and sign a FA second basemen. Someone who can provide solid OBP, and if not that, we need someone who can provide excellent defense.

As I’ve said, I’d like to see someone like Akinori Iwamura or Adam Everett. Iwamura ranks as an average to above average second basemen, can play multiple positions, and has a pretty solid bat. Adam Everett is a defensive wizard, but his bat is shit. I think improving our defense is a big priority, and the addition of someone like everett could really help our defensive efficiency, which would have the effect of helping our pitching.

The Outfield situation:

Upton will be in right field for as long as he’s in arizona. I think CY will be fine next year, so lets give him another year in center. Left field is the big question mark right now. Who’s the starting left fielder? Conor? Parra? I think Conor is going to be our starting left fielder, especially if our first base situation is worked out. I see Parra as our fourth outfielder. One situation i could see happening is Conor splitting time between LF and 1B, spelling either Parra or Allen as needed.

Eric Byrnes
Eric Byrnes needs to go. If he’s going to be on the team, it’s going to be a as a fourth outfielder, and honestly, there’s more qualifed players for that job already on the team(Parra, Romero) or in the minors(gillespie)

"When fascism comes to this country, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross" - Upton Sinclair

by Zephon on Oct 25, 2009 2:30 AM EDT reply actions  

Holy Criminey.

1) Agreed.
2) Disagreed. I say we go for it in 2011-on. Spending for a starter in 2010 will just tie us down, IMO, especially since some of the guys out there (and all of the guys you mentioned – Wolf, Penny, Pineiro, and Marquis) all are shaky and extremely risky. Wolf is old and has been taking one-year offers from the Dodgers for a couple years now, with no real reason to leave. Penny is battered and is likely to get way overpaid from a few good months in San Fran after a miserable most-of-a-season in Boston. Pineiro has been mediocre his entire career until he met Dave Duncan in St. Louis, and I don’t want to risk him losing that upon his departure. Marquis… well he’s just bad. Lots of wins, history of being extremely disappointing, only got a huge contract from Chicago because of ridiculously-inflated pricetags on starters from a few years ago. Contract year studs scare me, especially if their stud-stat is wins. As for injury risks, I think having one (Webb) is enough for a rotation. Let Buckner be the 4 (I believe in him, personally), and the rest fight for 5.
3) Really tempting to add a bullpen piece. Our system isn’t bursting with young relievers ready to contribute, Leo Rosales isn’t a guy you want to be depending on long-term, and we have a hole if you remove him. One arm would be great to have, especially since we still don’t know if Daniel Schlereth can be reliable. Not sure if it should be a RHP or LHP though… An argument can be made for both. We have two already in Schlereth and Clay Zavada, but if Schlereth can’t deliver is Clay really a reliable LOOGY-type guy? I wouldn’t give up the good pick to get Oliver, personally, and I don’t really know what’s out there, but an arm would be nice.
4) 1B & 2B – I don’t want to add another 1B. Allen is young and needs PT to develop, and you can’t judge him on his cup of coffee this year. He’s got the power, he just needs some work. We knew he was a project when we picked him up. Also, a Co-Jack platoon would be great, as they hit from opposite sides of the plate, and Jackson could also fill in in LF (platooning with the lefty-hitting-impaired Parra). For second, Iwamura scares me since he was hurt a lot last year (injury risks are cheap, but let’s not forget it’s for a reason), and I think developing the bats of Abreu and Ryal, maybe platooning with Roberts, would be better options than Everett for long-term, which I feel is what we should look towards.
5) OF – Conor platoons with the Parra/Allen combo, CY in center, Upton in right, Romero as a fifth OF, Byrnes on another team’s roster. All agreement here.

Most Depressing Math Question Ever courtesy of Probability class: "Clark and Anthony are two old friends. Let A be the event that Clark will attend Anthony's funeral. Let B be the event that Anthony will attend Clark's funeral. Are A and B independent? Why or why not?"

by IHateSouthBend on Oct 26, 2009 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

3) Really tempting to add a bullpen piece. Our system isn’t bursting with young relievers ready to contribute, Leo Rosales isn’t a guy you want to be depending on long-term, and we have a hole if you remove him. One arm would be great to have, especially since we still don’t know if Daniel Schlereth can be reliable. Not sure if it should be a RHP or LHP though… An argument can be made for both. We have two already in Schlereth and Clay Zavada, but if Schlereth can’t deliver is Clay really a reliable LOOGY-type guy? I wouldn’t give up the good pick to get Oliver, personally, and I don’t really know what’s out there, but an arm would be nice.

Zavada isn’t really a LOOGY, at least, not this year…. he was better pitching against RHBs than LHBs, making him perhaps like a 7th inning guy. If he can cut down on the walks.

Also, what do you mean by give up the good pick? Our 1st rounder in the 2010 draft is protected…

As for platoons, I see Parra/CoJack/RyRo/Ichiromero in LF, Parra/CY/Ichiromero in CF, Abreu/Ryal/RyRo at 2B, Allen/Ryal/CoJack at 1B.

Byrnes platoons in the mascot suit with the guy who usually plays Baxter.

I don't think this has ever happened before. The Redskins suck, yet the (Arizona) Cardinals and (University of Arizona) Wildcats don't.

by DbacksSkins on Oct 29, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Re: ‘good pick’ — I imagine IHSB is referring to the sandwich pick we’d forfeit for signing a free agent (assuming he grades out as at least a B).

"Love is the most important thing in the world, but baseball is pretty good too. " ~Greg, age 8

by njjohn on Oct 30, 2009 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

From the article

it sounds like the annual property levy on a concern like the Dbacks would be less than half a million dollars – perhaps considerably less. In any case, it’s a very manageable expense with no competitive implications.

If the FO is the focus of anything, something is seriously wrong with the picture ! - unnamedDBacksfan 2/20/09

by Diamondhacks on Oct 25, 2009 7:45 PM EDT reply actions  

Texaz

is the bomb

I laugh until my head comes off.

by edbigghead on Oct 25, 2009 10:35 PM EDT reply actions  

Saw the picture of Mrs. White's and totally forgot about baseball

Whether you want fabulous food to clog your arteries, that is definately the place. I almost miss working downtown. (good baseball info too Jim).

by Fiona on Oct 26, 2009 3:26 AM EDT reply actions  

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