Johnson vs. Garland: Peering behind the curtain
Finally, we get more details on how the Randy Johnson situation unfolded from management. The AZ Central story has the bare bones - "the club's finances have changed since November" - but the real meat can be found in Nick P's latest blog entry. I think it's worth repeating the explanation from Josh Byrnes at some length, as it gives the best look so far at how things went down:
This off-season has been a tricky one for a lot of people. Kind of assessing our choices relative to the economy. If you sort of look at it month by month, a lot of our best planning has been accurate; sometimes it’s necessitated some adjustment. With Randy, I think he and us made a good attempt in October and into the middle of November and couldn’t get it done.At the time he filed, it felt like they turned the page a little bit. I think we wanted to keep it more open-ended than maybe they did. Obviously he turned out getting a good deal and we understand the choices he had. We were unable to get a meeting that we hoped would help explain the scenarios of the off-season that might involve a longer process towards maybe a deal.
Again, we understand the risk when a player goes to free agency. The deeper we got into the off-season, maybe a few things changed our landscape, maybe most notably our expected expenditures in the draft and a few other things. And then the availability of a lot of pitchers. In the days following Christmas was the first time I really reached out to Craig and started talking seriously about bringing Jon here and luckily we were able to do it.
Randy's agent replies, "The Diamondbacks knew at the time exactly what that was and the Diamondbacks had a significant amount of time in which they had the exclusive rights to sign Randy." Well, 15 days - in which the team was also working out whether or not to offer arbitration to Adam Dunn. The end of that exclusive period does not mean the team can no longer sign the player, but the agent's statement does seem to confirm Byrnes' assessment, that 'they turned the page' on Johnson signing with the Diamondbacks at that point. Johnson seemed to want a deal quickly and, given the market, I can see why - the market for free agent pitching seems to have slowed significantly since the end of the World Series.
Interestingly, Byrnes remained pretty circumspect about whether they would have made an increased offer to Johnson. "Not necessarily," he said, before drifting, with iceberg-like relentlessness, off topic, into a quote that ended, "It’ll be an interesting NL West this year." Nick says, "The Diamondbacks front office goes into operation shutdown whenever Johnson’s name is brought up," and that does seem to be the case - it took over a month after Johnson was lost, for even this information to emerge. Though hard to say whether it was just a case of no-one asking the right questions to the right people.
As a fan, inquiring minds do somewhat want to know full details, especially of how the greatest pitcher in franchise history was allowed to leave Arizona for the second time. After all, now that Johnson has signed with the Giants, where's the harm? It's not as if he'll be back, is it? Yet, equally, there's no longer any point getting into any kind of mud-slinging or 'he said, he said' scenario, and a dignified silence will reflect better on the team in any future negotiations with other players. I think it's clear the Diamondbacks available budget has increased as the off-season went on, due to the drop in draft picks, and the cost of pitching has gone the opposite direction. I trust 'Skins will come up with one of his invaluable diagrams to illustrate this.
Last Tuesday, say, we probably could have afforded to accept Johnson's offer of a 50% pay-cut - had the team wanted to, and that's by no means certain. However, he was no longer on the market, so it all became moot, and personally, I feel this pretty much draws a line under the whole saga. However, I note the $6.25m allocated to Garland is not apparently the end of the spending, with Nick's blog also reporting that progress has been made to an agreement with veteran reliever Tom Gordon. He was unimpressive last year [an 85 ERA+ with the Phillies] but this was his worst figure since his rookie season - and that was back when Ronald Reagan was the prsident. On the other hand, Flash is now 41, and a rebound year is no longer a certainty.
Elsewhere in the 'pen, there was a good write-up of Travis Blackley, and his promising performance in Mexican winter ball. An opposing pitching coach called him, "One of the best pitchers in the league" - sure, it's Mexico, but he had a K:BB ratio of 55:19. I note that Blackley was a starter there; however, since he's out of options, I imagine he would likely be slotted into the bullpen. Much the same - out of options, but coming off a decent winter - goes for Juan Gutierrez, although any signing of Tom Gordon will make things very tight. Let's do the math there.
We have four relief spots locked down: Qualls, Peña, Rauch and Shoeneweis. I imagine Petit is there too: out of options, having been in the majors the past three seasons, and with the arrival of Garland, he won't be in the rotation. So that's five relievers, and Gordon would be the sixth, leaving just one spot for Gutierrez or Blackley, with the other being exposed. The alternative is going with 13 pitchers, and 12 position players - but we have 13 of the latter under contract already: eight starters, plus a bench of Montero, Skelton, Ojeda, Byrnes and Clark.
One possible option there looks to have vanished: there'll be no trade with the Red Sox for Montero, since Jon Heyman reports Boston have reached agreement with Jason Varitek on a one-year contract with a second option year. He joins Josh Bard behind the plate at Fenway, and presumably closes the door on them trading a pitching prospect for our backup catcher this season. Unless something else crops up, seems we'll be going with three - Snyder, Montero and Skelton - on Opening Day. Juggling that's going to be fun, though word is, that Skelton has already started taking ground-balls down in Tucson, so may see time at second-base.
And with that, I'm off to enjoy the weekend. Back on Sunday: residents of Arizona have probably forgotten, since there's been virtually no mention of it at all in the local media, but I believe there's a football game going on in Florida that day...
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I know
the local media is trying hard, but I can’t bring myself to care that much now that Johnson is gone. At this point it’s devolving into a finger pointing match between the two sides.
I think the rotation is pretty solid right now, all things considered. It’s probably not going to mean a thing, though, unless the offense manages to piece together runs on a consistent basis.
I am Shiva the destroyer, your harbinger of doom this evening.
Randy can pitch right handed better than Garland
and do it in his sleep.
LOL! Saw this on another message board. I would rather have RJ back, but I’m not anti-Garland either. From what I read on other boards, not many fence sitters on this topic.
If you make every game a life-and-death thing, you're going to have problems. You'll be dead a lot.
by unnamedDBacksfan on Jan 31, 2009 12:34 PM EST reply actions
oy vey
I like passion but “better right handed than Garland” takes the cake for braindead posts. Clearly it couldn’t have been submitted by anyone with a track record for credibility. What board contributed that gem?
None other than
the message board at DBacks.com.
If you make every game a life-and-death thing, you're going to have problems. You'll be dead a lot.
by unnamedDBacksfan on Jan 31, 2009 1:14 PM EST up reply actions
consider the board
From “arizonaandy” at the dbacks.com board:
The worst signing in years. Watching Garland pitch at Chase and Coors will be a nightmare. RJ could pitch better than this guy in his sleep. (and could rack up more Ks pitching right handed)
Pitch better asleep and K more batters throwing right handed? Uh… no. That was just silly.
Pitch better left handed than Garland will right handed in 2008? Only time will tell. I hope Jon kicks @ss this year for AZ.
K more left handed than Garland will right handed in 2008. Well duh.
From Shoe on DBBP
Quality of batters faced in 2008 among pitchers with 162 IP or more. There were 82 guys:
(This is the OPS of the lineups they faced, not OPS against that pitcher)
Jon Garland .753 OPS (21st)
Brandon Webb .718 OPS (80th)
Dan Haren .724 (74th)
….ok…..here it is…….wait for it……
Randy Johnson .707 (82nd)
Thats right…..RJ faced the WEAKEST accumulative batters by OPS of any starter in the majors last year, and almost 50 OPS points weaker than what Garland faced.
Note: Doug Davis faced .728 OPS quality of batters faced, but fell short of the 162 IP threshold. If I expand the IP to 140 IP minimum the ranks are as follows….101 guys:
Garland 26th
Davis 80th
Haren 92nd
Webb 99th
Johnson 101st (Still last)
"…you expect me to read all this?!" -- sergey606
FOCLMAO!
…"you expect me to read all this?!" — sergey606
Should be on his tombstone. If he’s looking for a You Tube type of board, GLB is always looking for some unicorn fans.
If you make every game a life-and-death thing, you're going to have problems. You'll be dead a lot.
by unnamedDBacksfan on Jan 31, 2009 2:36 PM EST up reply actions
From stu on DBBP
My recollection is that this has been true for RJ for most of career because teams sit excellent lh’s against him. If this is true, this is an advantage that RJ has over other pitchers and is a positive in evaluating him.
When managers sit their best hitters for RJ starts, it’s a reflection of the quality of the pitcher.
+1
If you make every game a life-and-death thing, you're going to have problems. You'll be dead a lot.
by unnamedDBacksfan on Jan 31, 2009 2:54 PM EST up reply actions
And let's
be honest here. The AL Central was, is, and will be (at least for a while) better offensively than the NL West.
I am Shiva the destroyer, your harbinger of doom this evening.
But
what about the AL West?
"Of course, it’s downright frightening to imagine how two Adam Dunns would turn the double play." - Joe Posnanski
With Randy, I think he and us made a good attempt in October and into the middle of November and couldn’t get it done.
Characterizing an offer that represents 25% of a player’s market value as a “good attempt” or “what we thought was fair” tells you all you need to know. The $3M was a clear signal that Johnson was a very low priority to the Diamondbacks, behind all this other debris on the horizon. As Josh spells out, the club hoped to string Johnson along for as long as they could, in a buyers market, with no guarantee of a higher offer.
“The Diamondbacks front office goes into operation shutdown whenever Johnson’s name is brought up”
It’s a delicate snowjob, pretending you think the world of Randy when your actions scream otherwise. Better to blame the economy, or Randy’s lawyers, and hope it eventually fades away.
Thank you for letting me talk

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