Webby and us against the world
by Diamondhacks on Sep 24, 2008 2:58 PM EDT
29 comments
One aspect of pitcher value that shoe and I didnt get into in our recent Cy Young discussion is the notion of schedule strength. I became aware of this back in 2006 when Webby and Chris Carpenter sported similar big ticket stats coming down the stretch; I dont remember the exact numbers (so I'll make them up here), but it turned out Carpenter enjoyed an astonishly easy schedule through no fault of his own - something like 3 of 30 starts were against teams over .500. Each time I redefined comparative schedule "strength", Webb came out looking better and better.
There's no perfect or "right" way to look at this. No matter how you define "strength", some cutoffs will be arbitrary. That's why I encourage anyone interested to eyeball the gamelogs themselves and get a feel for each candidate's competition. The first time I looked at the 2008 CYA candidate game logs, for each pitcher I tallied the number of opposing teams I thought were "good". Nothing more scientific than that. The second time, I determined which opponents average more than 5 runs per game in which venues, and tallied how many starts each pitcher had in those run-rich circumstances. What became clear, via both methods, was that Johann Santana and Tim Lincecum have pitched against decidedly tougher lineups than have Ryan Dempster or Brandon Webb.
For example,Lincecum had two starts against the Cubs and three at Coors. Brandon started once in Denver and never faced the league's best team. Santana pitched at Philly three times, against the Cubs once and a home/away pair v the Yankees.
This doesnt say much about W/L record, unless one controls for opposing starters - and I havent done that. But I do think it speaks to run prevention (ie ERA, ERA+) rather forcefully, especially considering Lincecum and Santana rank 1-2 in ERA+ prior to this consideration. It just makes their effectiveness stand out even more, in my mind.
Will any of this influence the CYA vote? Of course not. That will come down to the usual stuff. Wins, ERA, Win%, strikeouts. What's hurting Lincecum politically, in concert with his latest flameout, is the emergence of Santana. Their ERAs are almost identical now. Team records (21-12) in their respective starts are identical. Johann's pitched a few more innings. All of a sudden, at least statistically, Tim Lincecum isnt as unique as he was a week or two ago, and the brightest, shiniest object left in the room, fair or not, seems to be Brandon Webb's 22 wins.
Do I think Brandon is "undeserving" of the Cy Young award. No, but there are three other guys (Lincecum, Santana, Dempster) who've pitched as well and maybe better, who basically dont have the wins to "certify" that with voters.
Brandon's been underrated his whole career, for several reasons. The home ballpark. The lousy teams. The market. His pitching style and personal demeanor. And all that stuff, those obstacles to recognition if you will, endear him to us all the more. Will any of those factors magically disappear if he wins a second CYA? I doubt it. But it will mark the end of an era - the era when Brandon was underappreciated in a cumulative, cosmic sense, that seemed unjust to those who've admired him all along.
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For historical purposes
Here’s the Carpenter vs. Webb discussion from 2006. It was a similar kind of debate as here, where Carpenter had an ERA lead, byt Webb was ahead in wins. It’s funny how, as D-back fans, we’ve gone from “wins and losses are useless as a measure of pitcher performance” in 2004 to “well, they are kinda significant…” now. :-)
Anyway, over at McCovey Chronicles, they’re casting around for reasons why Lincecum should win. I’m not sure “Because he’s much more likely than Brandon Webb to burst into tears if he doesn’t” is quite what they are looking for.
by Jim McLennan on Sep 24, 2008 4:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
they have a medders picture
I like the thread over there and find it funny, but someone has to go into comments and let them know that they have a picture of Brandon Medders and not Webb up.
I was going to, but have to wait a day before I can post.
by peeklay on Sep 24, 2008 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hey, if they keep not voting for our pitchers based on wins, we have to start using wins as an argument, right? =)
"Besides, you two shouldn't fight! You're best friends, I would imagine. You can't let a bunch of talking dogs in space helmets ruin that."
by kishi on Sep 24, 2008 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nice post
I especially liked the closing paragraph. Almost like a loss of innocence :-)
Baseball Prospectus has a strength of opponents quality ops report.
There are 45 NL pitchers who have thrown at least 155 Innings
Tim Redding has faced the toughest opposing hitters with, with a .756 OPS
Randy Johnson has faced the easiers, with a .707 OPS
Here are some how some of the top CY Young Contenders Stack up. (Overall NL rank in brackets)
Santana .735 (11th)
Hames .735 (12th)
Oswalt .734 (14th)
Lincecum .733 (16th)
Volquez .728 (23rd)
Zambrano .724 (35th)
Billingsley .724 (36th)
Haren .723 (37th)
Dempster .723 (38th)
Webb .714 (43rd out of 45)
I posted this at DBBP today about Santan as well. Sorry for copy and paste
Talk about a hard luck season
He has been remarkably consistent. Check this out
In his 15 wins, 2.25 ERA
In his 7 losses, 3.35 ERA
In his 11 No Dec. 2.79 ERA
Talk about getting robbed. He has a better ERA than BOTH Lincecum and Webb, not only overall, but in those losses and no decisions too.
In his 7 losses, the Mets have scored 10 runs.
From June 4 to July 4 he pitched in 6 games, and gave up 11 ER for a 2.48 ERA in that stretch, but his team scored just 12 runs, and his defense gave up 6 unearned runs, so he went 0-4 with 2 ND
But here is the REAL kick in the tail:
In his 11 no decisions he left the game
with a lead 7 times
with a tie 2 times
trailing 2 times
OK…so 7 times his bullpen blew a lead for him and 2 times they took him off the hook. The combination of his bullpen blowing 7 leads for him, and the total lack of support in his 7 losses, it’s not a stretch at all to say he is the most hard luck pitcher in baseball this year.
He leads the NL in ERA and he SHOULD be about 22-5
by shoewizard on Sep 24, 2008 9:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I pointed out something similar
A couple of days back. Santana leads the majors in quality starts without a win: nine no-decisions and five losses. In contrast, Webb has two no-decisions and only one defeat when he throws a quality start.
by Jim McLennan on Sep 24, 2008 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also check out Dan Haren
ERA in 16 wins: 2.26
ERA in 8 losses: 6.60
ERA in 8 no-decisions: 2.47
However, Haren’s splits are more even: in those 8 ND’s, he left with a lead three times, trailed three times and tied twice, from what I can see. But he was certainly a victim of a lack of run-support while on the mound in those games.
by Jim McLennan on Sep 24, 2008 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What interests me
about this kind of game by game breakout is how at odds it seems to be with the homogenized run support (RS) figures, where Santana, Webb and Lincecum are all “receiving” an average of five runs per game. In fact, after one adjusts for parks, Santana is actually receiving better mean support than Webb!
The fact Webb won a bunch more games certainly doesnt make him a better pitcher than Santana. But the fact he received less mean run support means there’s another side to the game by game numbers presented. Maybe it’s this. The Mets scored six or more runs for Johann thirteen times. He won ten but had 3 no decisions. The Diamondbacks scored six or more for Webby only ten times (in a better park) – he won nine with one no decision. I know it’s not much, and am certainly not claiming to invalidate your case – just playing around with the numbers to further illuminate the run distribution and this apparent mathematical irony.
Your itemized case for Santana as a hard luck pitcher (little or no support) is certainly compelling. I’m particularly impressed that he hasnt lost since June and has yielded more than four runs just once all season – even Randy got knocked around three or four times per year during his CYA run.
by Diamondhacks on Sep 25, 2008 4:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
What about the strength of competition issues ?
I think it’s pretty clear from the info presented above that Webb faced the far inferior lineups compared to Santana and Lincecum. 20 points less in OPS to be exact. 3rd easiest lineups faced in the majors for all qualified pitchers. Thats significant.
As for the run support, I agree Webb received the inferior run support, in aggregate. But as you mentioned, distribution needs to be taken into account. Furthermore as I’ve discussed, the variables out of the pitchers control are not limited to run support. There is also the bullpen. I think In Santana’s case, that is what really screwed up his season W-L record, perhaps more so than that 6 game stretch of poor run support.
I did something just now, to get away from the “aggregates” and looked at each game in the games logs, as I think If we are willing to take the time to really look at game logs, we can get closer to the “truth”. What I attempted to do was determine Hard Luck Losses, (HLL) Hard Luck No Decisions (HLND), Lucky Wins (LW) and Lucky ND (LND) . Below is a breakdown . I list the specific dates. You can go to the game logs at bb-ref, and if you disagree with any I’ve classified, let me know which ones, and we can review each game’s box score, play by play record, game accounts, etc, and see if we can’t agree on how to categorize them:
Webb http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/webbbr01.shtml
HLL (1) May 21
LW (1) 5/3
HL ND (2) 7/13, 7/20
LND (1) 7/3
Santana http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/gl.cgi?n1=santajo02&t=p
HLL (3) 4/6, 6/6, 6/23
LW (1) 5/17 ?? (Not sure if this should be a lucky win…..he gave up 4 ER, but pitched into the 8th, going 7 2/3)
HLND (7) 4/29, 5/4, 7/22, 8/2, 8/7, 9/1, 9/13
LND (1) 7/17
Lincecum http://www.baseball-reference.com/l/linceti01.shtml
HLL (2) 4/29, 9/8
(LW) (0)
HLND (4) 4/8,5/4,6/1, 6/11
LND (2) 6/22, 9/2
My initial analysis for each pitcher from the Data above is this:
Webb remarkably got almost exactly what he deserved this year. In only one of his losses did he clearly pitch well enough to get a win. He pretty much deserved the loss in all the others. He also only had one lucky win. He was clearly good enough to win in all the others. Those two cancel each other out. And in the No decisions, he only has one more “hard luck” ND than he does times the team got him off the hook. From looking at this one might say that Webb SHOULD therefore be 23-7 instead of 22-7. (If he had "perfect luck, IOW) Webb has been as good as his record this year.
Santana’s HLL losses out number the LW by 3-1, so if you flip two games his way, he’d go from 15-7 to 17-5. Then the HLND outnumber the LND 7-1 !! If he got as fortunate as Webb did in getting wins when deserved instead of racking up no decisions thanks to bullpens blowing so many of his leads, you’d have to give him 6 "wins, and he’d end up 23-5
Lincecum has 2 HLL and no lucky wins, so you could flip him to 19-3, and he has 4 HLND and 2 LND, so he’d gain 2 W there, to make him 21-3
I think this is a useful exercise because it helps illustrate how random chance over the course of a season, which is only 30 something games for starter, and ultimately really a small sample size, can skew the W-L records completely out of whack with the quality of the pitchers work and his contribution to the team. In Webb’s case, the W-L record reflected accurately just how well he pitched this year. In Santana’s case, the W-L record is VERY far off from reflecting how he pitched. In Lincecum’s case, his actual W-L record is somewhat removed from the reality of the quality of his pitching, less so than Santan’s, moreso than Webb’s.
by shoewizard on Sep 25, 2008 12:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Eh... screw this objectivity crap.
SANTANA SUCKS!! LINCECUM SUCKS!! WEBBY RULES!! WEBBY FOR CY YOUNG!!!!!!
Josh Byrnes: PLEEEEEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE RE-SIGN ADAM DUNN!!
by DbacksSkins on Sep 25, 2008 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Objectivity can be a chore :-)
Hey…I hope Webb wins on Saturday and throws a CG shutout. I hope the Cy Young voters decide to give him the Cy Young because he is a good guy and deserves every good thing that comes to him. It’s not going to be some travesty if he wins the award.
I sincerely hope that at no point in all of my ramblings about any subject regarding the d backs, and especially this one, that it doesn’t come off as if I don’t want the best for these players, this team, and this organization. If it does, than I have seriously screwed up in my writing, because thats not how I feel.
by shoewizard on Sep 25, 2008 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Regarding run distribution,
I agree that an objective game by game analysis tends to yield more relevant insight towards current seasonal performance than looking at run support (or prevention) in aggregate, because each game becomes the frame of reference for performance, instead of what we alternately call " homogenized" and “aggregate” seasonal performance. I think we’re saying basically the same thing in that regard.
Brandon’s run distribution (not superior pitching near as we can tell) resulted in more wins than his CYA competition, in eerily the same manner that the 2007 Dbacks won 90 courtesy of comparatively fortuitous spreads. For example, half (eleven) of Webby’s wins were by one or two runs; Santana only three of fifteen. Brandon didnt lose a single one run decision all year, lost a couple two run contests. Santana lost five similarly “close” games. I’m certainly not suggesting that Santana doesnt “know how” to win the close ones, but the fact is he didnt and those games count as a measure of current success, just like last year’s 90 team wins. Doesnt mean Brandon’s the better pitcher or that the 07 Dbacks were the best team, in any forward thinking sense. They were simply the most successful during that sample period.
Regarding competition strength, absolutely I think it’s relevant to CYA debate and that’s why I brought it up. I’ll let you try to quantify it, but for now, I’m satisfied assuming the schedule disparity negates some if not all of Brandons’s comparative park adjustment. All of a sudden, Lincecum and Santana’s numerical ERA advantages over Webb seem more real and meaningful to me. Not that it will make any difference in the voting, but it seems to me Webb’s contribution to a couple more team wins(23) than either Santana or Lincecum(21 each) may be trumped by their superiority at preventing runs, clarified and further exposed by this bit of competitive context.
by Diamondhacks on Sep 25, 2008 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did you just invent a new stat?
“Pitcher Pythag”
by shoewizard on Sep 25, 2008 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ewwwww! Yuck!
I have a reputation to maintain.
Seriously, it is an interesting leap, or connection, but I dont think the classic Team formula translates very well to indidual pitchers, largely because each team is collectively and exclusively responsible for its own RS & RA, relative to its competition.
Of course, pitchers arent nearly as responsible for RS and RA; virtually no influence on their own RS (zero in DH leagues) and limited or compromised personal influence on RA for reasons you’ve covered (each pitcher has a unique defense and bullpen behind him).
That’s the simple genius of the Team pythag concept: all (or darn near all) that stuff is accounted for, like an invisible hand. Just plug in your RS and RA and we can fan out your expected win distributions accordingly. Doesnt matter if your rotation is weak or Ichiro leads off or if you play in Petco or a bandbox on Mars. Regardless of circumstances, RS and RA tell you something meaningful about every single team. Less so in our nascent pitching bastard, I’m afraid.
No shame in that. James’ solution is pretty elegant, if you ask me.
by Diamondhacks on Sep 25, 2008 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Giants raising Lincecum's Cy Young profile
http://www.azsnakepit.com/2008/9/24/621118/webby-and-us-against-the-w?login=1222464455
The Giants Media Relations staff have sent 4 pages of documents to the Baseball Writers’ Association of America containing “statistics and glowing quotes, most of them culled from opposing hitters and coaches over the season.”
And they say it isn’t a campaign. Yeah, right.
by TwinnerA on Sep 26, 2008 5:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Uh-huh
http://www.mercurynews.com/sports/ci_10561861
“It’s not a campaign per se,”
If it’s not a campaign, then what is it, junk mail? If I was a voter, I’d be annoyed at something like that- what, they think I can’t figure out how to look up stats on the internet? And then to have they say it isn’t a campaign, I’d be extra annoyed. So, we can hope that members of the BWAA are wired like me and will decide not to vote for Lincecum out of spite.
"Now, this is the dumbest thing I've ever heard [Hank Steinbrenner] say, and this is the third time I've said that this season."
by kishi on Sep 26, 2008 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Boy I sure screwed up that link
Thanks for getting it right, kishi. Here’s hoping Webb gets win #23 thereby giving him 5 more wins than last year when he was 2nd in the Cy voting and 7 more wins than 2006 when he won.
Also, now that the D’backs have been eliminated hopefully the Dodgers cream Lincecum and SF on Sunday!
by TwinnerA on Sep 26, 2008 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh crap.
I didn’t think of that - Lincecum will be pitching against a team that probably doesn’t care anymore. :(
Mark Reynolds leads the majors in errors and strikeouts. That's a good thing, right??
by DbacksSkins on Sep 26, 2008 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Argh.....
Mark Reynolds leads the majors in errors and strikeouts. That's a good thing, right??
by DbacksSkins on Sep 26, 2008 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I was thinking about that last night
Well, we can still hope.
(And it’s not like the Rockies seem to have been caring at all this season, so…)
"Now, this is the dumbest thing I've ever heard [Hank Steinbrenner] say, and this is the third time I've said that this season."
by kishi on Sep 26, 2008 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like this article about it
http://www.mercurynews.com/columns/ci_10552038?nclick_check=1
“First off, when did the Cy Young Award turn into the Heisman Trophy, complete with a publicity campaign that frankly borders on pandering?”
Exactly. Lincecum doesn’t need the push, no one’s ignoring him, and this just makes the Giants look pushy and desperate for the attention.
Besides, wouldn’t they rather negotiate his next contract without him holding the Cy Young over their head? =)
"Now, this is the dumbest thing I've ever heard [Hank Steinbrenner] say, and this is the third time I've said that this season."
by kishi on Sep 27, 2008 1:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't hear them
pushing the Mitchell Report around, so I would suggest they keep their mouths shut now, too.
Mark Reynolds leads the majors in errors and strikeouts. That's a good thing, right??
by DbacksSkins on Sep 27, 2008 2:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As far as I can see
The only time in the past two decades that a Cy Young in either league, went to a starter with a significant [more than three] deficit on the league leader in wins was back in 1999. Then, Randy Johnson’s 17 wins trumped Mike Hampton’s 22 – but the Big Unit did have more than twice as many strikeouts as Hampton.
by Jim McLennan on Sep 26, 2008 7:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Of course,
the Unit also had the media attention of a 100 win team, a team winning its first division title in just its second year, and RJ himself pitching on his first free agent contract.
Mark Reynolds leads the majors in errors and strikeouts. That's a good thing, right??
by DbacksSkins on Sep 26, 2008 7:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but that's okay.
Hampton had his vindication down the road when…
Uh…
…
by Azreous on Sep 26, 2008 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, hey....
don’t forget that Rus… err, the Huge Manatee had the most wins in MLB between 2000 and 2004.
Mark Reynolds leads the majors in errors and strikeouts. That's a good thing, right??
by DbacksSkins on Sep 26, 2008 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Very funny Azreous.
I’ve always felt bad for Mike. Sure, he got his money, but he was crucified by the press, thrown into the band box that was Coors, and now has had to deal with all sorts of arm issues. Could’ve been something.
"There are only two seasons: winter and baseball"
-- Bill Veeck
by njjohn on Sep 27, 2008 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I imagine that
the writers/voters probably have made up their minds one way or the other already, but for the ones who haven’t, Webb needs to win this last game showing he ended the season strong.
by TwinnerA on Sep 26, 2008 8:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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