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Diamondbacks 3, Reds 2: Webb has 20/20 vision

Record: 72-74. Pace: 80-82. Change on last season: -10
Elimination number: 13. Playoff odds: 8.2%

Reds2_medium

Oh, so that is what victory tastes like? Sour, somewhat gamey and not entirely satisfying? It's been so long, I had almost forgotten. Brandon Webb re-established himself as a pitcher, with eight innings of shut-out ball and, while the offense and Brandon Lyon both struggled mightily, Arizona ended the six-game losing streak. This was not a victory suitable for framing; it's the kind of win we probably would prefer to drop 'accidentally' down behind the fridge and forget ever existed. However, in comparison to results of the past week, we'll take it. Given the team are 2-0 my last two trips to the park and 3-13 in between them, I will be accepting donations to ensure our success going forward...

Webb finally won his twentieth game, becoming the first NL pitcher to get out of the 'teens since Dontrelle Wills in 2005. He's also the third Diamondback in franchise history to do so: the previous ones, of course, being Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, who each did it in both 2001 and 2002. Along with Webb, our holy trinity of starters now own the top eight spots in the Arizona single-season wins list - the next best is Omar Daal, all the way down on sixteen in 1999. I was surprised to see him pulled for a pinch-hitter in the eighth, since he was only at 95 pitches with a 1-0 lead - like most fans, I have a lot more faith in a tired Webb than a rested Lyon, though Webb admitted afterwards he was gassed. Still, even if the Reds line-up is not the strongest in the league, it was a great relief to see our ace is getting back on track.

Reds1_medium
At long last... #20 arrives.

However, the key word there would be 'getting', as his sinker still didn't quite seem to be as dominating as we'd like. There were an awful lot of fly-balls: I'm not sure when was the last time Webb got nine outs in the air, but I don't think it has been any outing this year. That's a sign batters are getting under pitches, because they are expecting it to sink more - rather than them getting on top of it, and grounding weakly out to the infield, as they do when he's truly at his best. He had particular issues with his change-up: "They weren't swinging too much at it... I got a big strikeout there in the eighth inning with it, but overall it was mainly fastballs."

The offense struggled again, with just five hits. It was particularly apparent when we got aboard, since thereafter we basically couldn't move runners up by putting the ball in play at all. The only time we succeeded in doing so, was when Young singled home Eckstein from third in the sixth - and Mr. Scrappy only reached there, thanks to a two-base throwing error by the opposing pitcher [though I prefer to think of it as an infield triple...]. We didn't even advance anyone on a ground-out. If you wanted to move up a base, you had wait for a walk, advance on a wild pitch - or steal it yourself, like Reynolds and Drew.

Reds3_medium
Dunn tries to get Salazar home from third.

Another them of our offense continued last night, as we struggled again, facing a starter whom the rest of the league has handled without issue. We didn't face Cueto as expected [Scherzer will get him on Sunday], instead it was Aaron Harang, who came into the game with a 4-15 record, the worst winning percentage in the majors of any pitcher with 15+ decisions. But he still managed to avoid allowing an earned run in seven innings of work. The only thing separating the two teams was Eckstein's high chopper off the plate, which Harang - rather than pocketing as he should [the way he'd been dealing with us, a runner on first was no big deal] , he fired wildly over to first, and the ball took a very kind ricochet down the line, letting Eckstein get to third.

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Mark. Mark, Mark, Mark... :-(

We were also helped out in the eighth, to add two extremely important insurance runs. Firstly, their RF misplayed Salazar's double down the line, allowing him to reach third-base. We still couldn't get any kind of clutch hit - both Drew and Reynolds striking out - but three walks, including a bases-loaded one to Dunn, and a wild pitch to Tracy (which he swung at, anyway) resulted in the lead being kindly padded to 3-0 before we got out of the eighth inning. Given we only had a miserly five hits - Eckstein and Young both reached twice, with a hit and a walk - that was more good fortune than anything else.

Reds5_medium
The last of Lyon as our closer?

Okay, so does anyone want to keep Lyon as closer after another wretched outing tonight? He got the first two outs around a single, but that was it: three further singles then followed, to the growing discomfort of the crowd. The second brought the tying run to the plate and a stirring of discontent; the third loaded the bases, and the rumblings became palpable, like approaching thunder. And when a two-run single put the tying run on third-base, it became imperative to remove Lyon from the mound, for his own safely. Not so much from the crowd, perhaps, as from Brandon Webb, who could be forgiven for taking some practice swings in the dugout, even though he'd been pulled from the game. If you know what I mean, and I think you do.

That brings his ERA since the break, in seventeen games, to 11.57, over which time opposing hitters are now batting .435 against him. It seems that even Melvin may have had enough, hinting darkly, "Tomorrow, we’ll deal with some of the issues that we need to take care of." I trust that will mean relegating Lyon to low-leverage situations from now until he becomes a free-agent at the end of the year. It's amazing how things change: back before (it appears) Melvin blew out our closer's arm, he was set fair to be a Type-A FA and we'd get two nice draft picks as a result. Now, I wouldn't even offer Lyon and his 5.23 ERA arbitration, for fear he would accept it.

Reds6_medium
Still, the result is what matters, I guess...

Chad Qualls came in to bail out Lyon with the tying run on third, in a way reminiscent of the way Peña did at Chase on August 19. It's little wonder that the reaction from the crowd was less than enthusiastic for our soon-to-be-former closer, as he has converted only one save at Chase since July 19. Here's his line at home since the All-Star break:
    Lyon: 9.2 IP, 31 H, 20 R, 19 ER, 4 BB, 5 K, 17.69 ERA
Yes, you read that correctly - 31 hits allowed in less than ten innings. As the relatively-low numbers of walks show, it's not particularly a control issue: he just isn't fooling anyone, though a monstrous BABIP of .470 in the second-half [not including last night] certainly is part of the problem. Anyway, Qualls struck out Jerry Hairston, Jr - I had momentary nightmares about the Reds sending up Micah Owings to pinch-hit! - and Webb got his twentieth, in rather more dramatic fashion than seemed likely after eight shutout innings.

Game notes

  • Crowd was just shy of 30,000, but there were a lot of late arrivals it seemed to me. They were also very, very passive, and I can't blame them: having watched the road-trip, it was up to the Diamondbacks to prove themselves to us. And after having got up with two outs in the ninth, only for Lyon to let us down three consecutive hitters, I deliberately stayed sitting for Qualls' final batter.
  • At least early on, it was a remarkably quick game: we were basically through six innings before 8 o'clock. However, the last two half-innings [five pitchers, three in-inning changes, fourteen hitters and 65 pitches] brought the game to a grinding halt. It ended up at 2:39, which seems long for a shutout. Heck, when we beat the Padres 9-0, it only took 2:17.
  • We didn't hang around for the fireworks: as soon as we heard it was going to be "country-themed", we headed for the exits like greased otters. I presume this was in 'honor' of Jessica Simpson's appearance there tonight  - what one workmate described as, and I quote without further comment, "Putting the ____ back into country."

280912129_reds_diamondbacks_114303969_live_medium
[Click to enlarge, in new window]
Master of his domain: Brandon Webb, +58.4%
Honorable mention: Chad Qualls, +16.6%
God-emperor of suck: Brandon Lyon, -13.1%
Dishonorable mention: Chris Snyder, -12.1%

Thanks to those who attended the Gameday Thread: from what I've seen, most of the comments there were a direct clone of what we were saying at the game! Present were unnamedDBacksfan, kishi, AZWILDCATS, AF DBacks Fanatic, foulpole, snakecharmer, Zephon, mrssoco, Muu, Scrbl, Quin, Diamondhacks, Azreous, damdrs1717 and utahdbacksfan.

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They won

that’s all I care about.

We are gonna get drunk with Adam Dunn and we're gonna head-butt some damn kangaroos.

by soco on Sep 13, 2008 2:07 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Sorry I wasn't around for this one.

I was stuck in the library assembly hall for the Choral Union retreat learning music for Holiday Dinner.

Yes. Christmas Music. In September. I hate my life.

by emilylovesthedbacks on Sep 13, 2008 2:49 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The Sam’s Club over on Butler put up decorations in their aisles on August 31st.

I hate this country.

by Azreous on Sep 13, 2008 4:11 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

At one point in my weird career

I worked at a book publisher. In order to be ready for Christmas, we had to send our Christmas books to the printer by mid-June. Now my internal calendar’s all messed up.

"We...probed them all the way through. They're completely meat." — Terry Bisson

by Scrbl on Sep 13, 2008 10:58 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I work

at a bookstore, and we’re starting our Holiday set-up.

We are gonna get drunk with Adam Dunn and we're gonna head-butt some damn kangaroos.

by soco on Sep 13, 2008 11:48 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

OMGWTFBBQPONIEEES!!!111

I finally get my intarwebz back to find I missed this!!

We will meet in Red 3 at the hour of scampering.

by hotclaws on Sep 13, 2008 3:54 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

The Lyon's share

of hits across his last 21.2 IP is 44. What may be most troubling about that is the innings stretch across a 2 and a half month stretch, starting in late June.

I’ve always admired aspects of Brandon’s style, throwing strikes, keeping the ball in the park, stoically taking the ball. But that’s a ton of hits over a significant stretch of time. For team morale and the practical concern of winning, I dont see how they can continue to pitch him.

by Diamondhacks on Sep 13, 2008 5:09 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yep.

Certainly not in high-leverage situations.

It seems like a bit of a stretch, and it’s been mentioned here before, but Lyon’s never been the same since that stretch of overuse back in June. I find it hard to believe he’s been battling an injury or something this whole time, but still I wonder. Nowadays he borders on no use at all (something like 11 appearances since August 1).

by Azreous on Sep 13, 2008 5:13 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Lyon hasnt been "the same" since June

before which, he was unsustainably good (1.29 ERA). I selected June as my cutoff to suggest a longer, more gradual decline than merely his Rauchian August, but I didnt mean to imply June causality, as in overuse, and I’m not sure the gamelogs support that. He pitched three consecutive days in June and July, got knocked around, but also rebounded both times, very convincingly in July.

He’s clearly not right, but given he’s only pitched 53 innings (less than most closers with 20+ saves), I’ll tread lightly with Melvin on this one. Or maybe we’re paying for Brandon’s 2007 (74 IP)? All I know is he’s been ineffective for a considerable length of time, moreso recently.

by Diamondhacks on Sep 13, 2008 2:12 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Probably.

If anything, it might not be the innings pitched from 2007 that’s catching up to us, but his unsustainable numbers from that year (and the part of this year through June). Seems like an awfully harsh regression though.

by Azreous on Sep 13, 2008 2:34 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It does.

I think because this is more than a statistical regression. There’s a physical regression here as well, similar to what I believe happens with Dan Haren each year. Maybe there’s no obvious injury, but when you make a living throwing strikes, a little fatigue can result in big performance declines – regardless of whether the pitcher perceives or acknowledges it.

It’s physically grueling to pitch successfully in the major leagues. These guys appear fatigued. I’m just not qualified to assign origins or blame at this point.

by Diamondhacks on Sep 13, 2008 2:56 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It Isn't Physical With Lyon

If it were, you’d expect his performance would be down everywhere. In fact his ERA splits tell a very different story.

Pre ASB
Home 2.04 Away 2.79

Post ASB
Home 17.69 Away 2.70

In fact, prior to his SF meltdown he hadn’t given up a run on the road since June. Over the same period at home: 21 runs! That tells me his problems are primarily mental.

by fjm235 on Sep 13, 2008 3:34 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Serious small sample-size caveat

Only 6.2 innings on the road post-ASB. While interesting, I don’t think we can necessarily draw any conclusions from that.

by Jim McLennan on Sep 13, 2008 3:42 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That tells me his problems are primarily mental.

That tells me…well..what Jim said.

If it were [physical], you’d expect his performance would be down everywhere

Not necessarily. Not with these sample sizes. Closers dont pitch many innings to begin with, and the more deeply we parse those samples trying to glean significance in terms of projections, I’m afraid the less we succeed.

I think what this year’s stats tell us is that Brandon, after some first week yips, pitched remarkably well for about 9 weeks, after which he’s been more up and down, until recently (Aug-Sept) where his performance has basically collapsed. Essentially from outstanding to meh to terrible. Doesnt prove it’s physical or mental, but physical’s my story & I’m stickin’ with it :- )

by Diamondhacks on Sep 13, 2008 4:36 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

One thing

They just mentioned on Fox: K-Rod hasn’t pitched at all on three consecutive days for the Angels. I strongly suspect they haven’t also run him out there in meaningless situations “to get some work.”

by Jim McLennan on Sep 13, 2008 3:41 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That's what you get

for listening to FOX. Aside from the fact that Lyon and F-Rod are different pitchers with their own durability profiles, what FOX apparently said is incorrect. In fact, it’s just blatantly wrong.

By my manual count, F-Rod has pitched three consecs five times (more than Brandon), 4 games in five days four times (more than Brandon), and five games in six days once (BL had some heavy usage in April but I dont think he ever did this). .

Gamelog

Doesnt exhaust the subject of usage. It’s possible F-Rod had longer rests after these extended exertions, for example. But FOX’s premise is rubbish.

by Diamondhacks on Sep 13, 2008 4:49 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

according to Piecoro

Lyon is now a set up man and Qualls will be our closer going forward. Link is in the fan shot over in the right margin.

Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong.

by unnamedDBacksfan on Sep 13, 2008 6:51 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Something I was thinking about last night...

I’m curious why Mark doesn’t run more. Looking at his college and minor league numbers, the guy had 29 steals in 168 games in college. Once he hit the minors, though, he’s only got 11 steals in 333 games, and he only attempted to steal once last season after he was called up to the Diamondbacks. This year, he’s got 11? The guy obviously has some speed. I just wonder why they haven’t used it more.

"Besides, you two shouldn't fight! You're best friends, I would imagine. You can't let a bunch of talking dogs in space helmets ruin that."

by kishi on Sep 13, 2008 4:40 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

A fair question.

Then again, nobody’s been running as much this year, with the exception of Reynolds and Jackson, who I’d imagine were not the sources of SBs we were expecting back in March.

by Azreous on Sep 13, 2008 4:55 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

True

I guess it isn’t so much a question of why he, individually, isn’t running, but more why the organization as a whole doesn’t seem too keen to use the speed they have on the basepaths. And, obviously, not just this year and not just at the major league level.

"Besides, you two shouldn't fight! You're best friends, I would imagine. You can't let a bunch of talking dogs in space helmets ruin that."

by kishi on Sep 13, 2008 5:00 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

When do pitchers and catcher report again?

The cards are well, the Cards. Now, the Suns seem to be setting…..
I guess I can get my sports fix with Phoenix Roadrunners Hockey
————————————————————————————————————————-
Suns’ approval rating falls
 You’ll hear nothing but optimism from the Suns but here’s the reality of where national opinion has slid on Phoenix. A Friday entry for ESPN’s TrueHoop blog (http://myespn.go.com/blogs/…) talked about which team was “most likely to descend into turmoil” based on a survey of 25 ESPN writers, editors and contributors.

Denver led with five votes. The Clippers received four. The Suns and Knicks tied with three votes each.

Here is what Henry Abbott and some quoted contributors said about the Suns . . .

The Suns, though, that’s where things get a little dicier. Fans in Phoenix are, I sense, genuinely thinking about a championship this year. They’re not going to like seeing Phoenix tied for third on this list.

ESPN.com’s John Hollinger explains his choice:

They have a new coach, they have high expectations that they probably won’t meet, they have Shaquille O’Neal, who is likely to show up out of shape and has a history of complaining about touches, and they have a weird dynamic going with the Sarver/Kerr thing.

I guess “turmoil” would be a bit strong, but they’re the best candidate I could come up with.

ESPN.com’s Scoop Jackson chose Phoenix because he sees a team that’s regressing:

Look at how they’ve gone backwards over the years in their playoff finishes. The loss of Marion. The unproductiveness of Diaw. Now the loss of D’Antoni. I just have a feeling it’s about to all fall apart. Plus, for the last three years I’ve picked them to win it all and they’ve pissed me off all three years, so I’m done with them. I’m officially off the bandwagon and I’m taking the rims with me.

When ESPN.com editor Chris Ramsay stares at the Suns now, he feels a loss of identity:

My friend, I don’t know you anymore.

You used to be so much fun. You were the burning hot, run-and-gun rock star of the NBA. You had amazing and powerful style. You had The Matrix. And you had Mike Mustache. You were — without a doubt — the coolest team in the league.

Now, you are suddenly uncool.

You are the ancient Rolling Stones playing halftime at Super Bowl XL. You will tip the season with a 163-year-old starting lineup: Shaq (36), Amare (25), Hill (36), Bell (32), Nash (34).

I’m concerned that age and injuries will devastate you. I’m afraid that a losing locker room will drag you down a cold, dark wormhole in the Arizona desert.

And my biggest fear is that you will become the ‘06-’07 Heat … a Shaq-dismal team of semi-inspired vets. They opened with a 42-point home loss to the Bulls, drifted through the regular season and got swept in the first round of the playoffs.

You could not stay the same forever. I get that. The NBA has a natural cycle. Teams are sold. GMs move on. Players get traded. Coaches get fired. But you changed and you didn’t have to, Suns. You were special. You gave away your mojo.

And that’s why when I ask the Magic 8-Ball if you will make the playoffs this season.

It answers “My sources say no.”

Even so, I have to send best wishes to your new coach Terry Porter. I’ve always liked TP. I really do wish you success … but, my friend, I am not hopeful.

Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong.

by unnamedDBacksfan on Sep 13, 2008 5:30 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It's fine by me.

The national pundits have been fawning over the Suns since Nash’s first MVP season (mostly thanks to the 32-3 start). Maybe it’s time to be the underdogs for once.

At this point I see them as a 6 seed kind of team. Maybe they can sneak into the second round. Maybe, just maybe, they could go a bit further. I’m not exactly sure where Abbott gets the idea that Suns fans expect a championship this season; with the way last season ended and the minimal improvements made, that kind of thinking would be foolhardy at best. (I still really enjoy reading TrueHoop though.)

by Azreous on Sep 13, 2008 6:06 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Can the Knicks

really descend into anything right now?

"We...probed them all the way through. They're completely meat." — Terry Bisson

by Scrbl on Sep 13, 2008 6:10 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Wait

the team is 2-0 with you there Jim and 3-13 when your not??

Kishi, that $20 dollar bet I lost should go to jim’s ticket fund for the rest of the season.

Whenever people agree with me I always feel I must be wrong.

by unnamedDBacksfan on Sep 13, 2008 5:51 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It's a shame we don't have those $1 seats still.

We’d be set to miraculously win a bunch of games down the stretch despite being a mediocre team!

Not that that’s been done recently by anyone.

by Azreous on Sep 13, 2008 6:09 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

So....

is this the point at which I have to completely stop posting in the GDTs for the good of the team??

Josh Byrnes: PLEEEEEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE RE-SIGN ADAM DUNN!!

by DbacksSkins on Sep 13, 2008 7:36 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hmm

I was going to say, “No, you didn’t post on Wednesday, and that didn’t help, right?” But I thought, “Wait, maybe he did.” So I went back to check and see if you actually posted. Let’s see what your first comment was….

WTF!!??
ANOTHER 9th inning comeback?? PLEASE don’t blow this…. ::fully expecting BoMel to bring in Jon Rauch::

Well, that just speaks for itself, doesn’t it?

"Besides, you two shouldn't fight! You're best friends, I would imagine. You can't let a bunch of talking dogs in space helmets ruin that."

by kishi on Sep 13, 2008 7:45 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hmmm....

At some point, I guess the question must be asked — Why does DbacksSkins hate freedom??

Josh Byrnes: PLEEEEEASE PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE RE-SIGN ADAM DUNN!!

by DbacksSkins on Sep 13, 2008 8:01 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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