Another Player NOT to be named later?
Emilio Bonifacio has had another multi-hit game today. That's his fourth in six since being traded to the Nationals, and his average with them is currently .385, having gone 10-for-26, including three triples. While, obviously, it's a small sample size, is this going to end up being another one of "those" trades, that we end up regretting later? Did we give up on him too early? After all, he is only twenty-three, more than two years younger than another second baseman that we let get away: Dan Uggla...
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Eh
Quite Possibly. But damn he is tearing it up, huh? That’s good to see! Glad he is doing well. I think if we wanted to succeed this year, Rauch was definitely a trade that had to be done, in my opinion. Though with Hudson most likely gone, we’ll see just how bad this trade might hurt next year!
by ZonaBacks10 on Aug 7, 2008 5:24 PM EDT 0 recs
This seems to happen fairly often, for some reason.
Jason Bay is hitting homers for the BoSox, Manny’s been hot hot hot since going to the Doggers, Xavier Nady has been swinging the bat for the Yankees, etc.
The only traded player NOT to be hitting is Tony Clark….
Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers: Filling the dubious shoes left open by Barry Bonds and the Giants.
by DbacksSkins on Aug 7, 2008 5:44 PM EDT 0 recs
True
But did you really expect Tony Clark to do what Manny, Bay, and Nady are doing? True, they are all doing well for there teams, but they are all on second place teams. I’d rather have a Tony Clark and be in first place and go to the playoffs, than be in second place with a player we have for 2 months, and not be worth it if we don’t make that playoffs…. Though Tony Clark is officially sucking it up for us. lol
by ZonaBacks10 on
Aug 7, 2008 5:57 PM EDT
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Of course I'd rather have TC and be in first.
All I was pointing out is that a lot of players seem to immediately do well after being traded—Scott Hairston last year, for example.
Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers: Filling the dubious shoes left open by Barry Bonds and the Giants.
by DbacksSkins on
Aug 7, 2008 6:04 PM EDT
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Well
I guess it depends on how long you think he can sustain his .417 BABIP.
Fire Bob Melvin
by nihil67 on Aug 7, 2008 6:00 PM EDT 1 recs
ISO
His current ISO (.176) is also a good deal higher than his norm.. which was between .065 and .084 in the higher minors. I suspect this is also not sustainable.
Fire Bob Melvin
by nihil67 on
Aug 7, 2008 6:02 PM EDT
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What is
ISO?
Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers: Filling the dubious shoes left open by Barry Bonds and the Giants.
by DbacksSkins on
Aug 7, 2008 6:04 PM EDT
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Isolated Power
For comparison, Pujols 2007 ISO was .241. Props to nihil for getting into such a nitty gritty stat.
I love the smell of commerce in the morning
by Red Reign on
Aug 8, 2008 5:05 PM EDT
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Some valid observations there
Dear Josh Byrnes: Please DFA Chris Burke. He can't hit, and probably never will.
by Zephon on
Aug 8, 2008 3:31 PM EDT
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Ah. Thx.
Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers: Filling the dubious shoes left open by Barry Bonds and the Giants.
by DbacksSkins on
Aug 7, 2008 6:17 PM EDT
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Also --
the relatives ages of Bonny and Uggla aren’t really relevant here, as Uggla went to college and was drafted at age 21, making his MLB debut at age 26. IIRC, Bonifacio was signed at age 16 or 17, making his MLB debut at age 22.
Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers: Filling the dubious shoes left open by Barry Bonds and the Giants.
by DbacksSkins on Aug 7, 2008 6:16 PM EDT 0 recs
Well...
They are relevant, in the sense that Uggla was (presumably) further along in his development when we “gave up” on him, by leaving him unprotected. Predicting a player’s career path is generally easier the older they get, I would imagine.
That said, I agree with the general assessment, that it’s probably not a trade we’ll regret. However, I think it’s amusing that Bonifacio is added to the long list of players we’ve traded away, who have immediately begun to kick ass for their new teams, in a way they never did for us…
by Jim McLennan on
Aug 7, 2008 8:02 PM EDT
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no regrets
Glad to see Emilio doing well, but honestly, I believe he’s a player whose weaknesses will be revealed with prolonged MLB exposure. I don’t wish ill to the guy… but I’m so glad we have Rauch in our corner instead of Wheel-io.
"There are only two seasons: winter and baseball"
-- Bill Veeck
by njjohn on Aug 7, 2008 7:34 PM EDT 0 recs
We needed
the arm in the pen. Plus, I still feel Rauch will be our answer at closer for the next year or two which is more important at his salary based on the inflated $$ at that role.
Plus, who doesn’t think a 6’11’’ guy with tats up his neck isn’t intimidating?
I love the smell of commerce in the morning
by Red Reign on Aug 8, 2008 2:51 AM EDT 0 recs
Yeah
At least we got something worthwhile in trade for Bonifacio.
Am I avoiding the subject, or am I doing philosophy?
by kishi on
Aug 8, 2008 2:53 AM EDT
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I told you guys this kid could play.
And all of you said he sucked.
The team that is kinda winning, the Arizona Diamondbacks.
by srdmad on Aug 8, 2008 8:04 PM EDT 0 recs
Check Ben's post above.
He’s waaaay overperforming.
Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers: Filling the dubious shoes left open by Barry Bonds and the Giants.
by DbacksSkins on
Aug 8, 2008 10:05 PM EDT
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Nice picture,
is that you.
The team that disappoints, the Arizona Diamondbacks.
by srdmad on
Aug 11, 2008 8:00 PM EDT
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You got me.
I’m a cat. I have whiskers and can type without opposable thumbs. I’d love to have some kind of stunning repartee for perhaps the best insult in modern history, but alas, I’m a cat.
Meow.
by Azreous on
Aug 11, 2008 8:55 PM EDT
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That explains why I kept having allergy problems at Mark Reynolds’s birthday party.
Am I avoiding the subject, or am I doing philosophy?
by kishi on
Aug 11, 2008 9:16 PM EDT
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Thanks for clearing that up.
The team that disappoints, the Arizona Diamondbacks.
by srdmad on
Aug 12, 2008 11:23 PM EDT
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Supposed to be under Azreous.
The team that disappoints, the Arizona Diamondbacks.
by srdmad on
Aug 12, 2008 11:23 PM EDT
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It was
Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers: Filling the dubious shoes left open by Barry Bonds and the Giants.
by DbacksSkins on
Aug 13, 2008 12:40 AM EDT
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No, the other one.
The team that disappoints, the Arizona Diamondbacks.
by srdmad on
Aug 13, 2008 6:21 PM EDT
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Yeah,
he’s just a big pussy.
Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers: Filling the dubious shoes left open by Barry Bonds and the Giants.
by DbacksSkins on
Aug 11, 2008 10:00 PM EDT
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Another 0'fer night for Emilio
0-5 tonight. Now batting .219 with .219 OBP
And all of you said he sucked.
And we were probably right. ;)
by shoewizard on
Aug 13, 2008 12:10 AM EDT
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"Small sample size."
The team that disappoints, the Arizona Diamondbacks.
by srdmad on
Aug 13, 2008 6:23 PM EDT
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Boni tonight
1-2 with 2 (2!!!) walks.
After 4+ years of abject mediocrity in the minor leagues, I think it’s safe to say that Boni is finally turning the corner and becoming something special.
by dahlian on
Aug 14, 2008 1:17 AM EDT
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Doesn't matter if you think he's good or not.
Small sample size, so lets hold this conversation later.
The team that might win, the Arizona Diamondbacks.
by srdmad on
Aug 14, 2008 3:49 PM EDT
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Yeah, guys, this small sample is obviously invalid, unlike the small sample that srdmad wants to look at.
Am I avoiding the subject, or am I doing philosophy?
by kishi on
Aug 14, 2008 4:58 PM EDT
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Since you people keep calling it a small sample size,
I figured we should just wait, instead of just going back and forth. I say he’s good, despite the small at bats, you say he’s bad, because of the small at bats.
The team that might win, the Arizona Diamondbacks.
by srdmad on
Aug 14, 2008 6:12 PM EDT
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I have a big sample size
It’s 2,833 PA’s in the minors and it says he’s not good.
This is the point you keep missing. Minor league track record MATTERS when trying to project a prospect.
I’m not telling you he won’t be good based on 50 at bats in Washington. I wasn’t the one trumpeting his greatness because at 20 something at bats he was hitting .375. It just became kind of a fun thing to do to joke around as his numbers subsequently dropped. But in all seriousness, I am telling you he’s not good because he’s shown it for years in the minors.
You are emotionally invested in him being good, because you told us he would be good, many disagreed, and it became a point of contention for you. But you have yet to demonstrate even a little bit WHY we should believe he will be good. He’s fast. What else you got?
by shoewizard on
Aug 14, 2008 7:56 PM EDT
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OH.....about the emotionally invested thing
Thats not a dig. I’ve been emotionally invested in players before, and allowed it to cloud my judgment. We all do it sometimes. Nobody is perfect. It usually takes someone else to talk some sense into us.
by shoewizard on
Aug 14, 2008 7:58 PM EDT
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Depends on what you mean by good?
Is he going to hit 330, hell no. But I see him hitting 275. He’s a career 285 hitter in the minors. Juan Pierre got away with being just fast.
The team that might win, the Arizona Diamondbacks.
by srdmad on
Aug 15, 2008 5:40 PM EDT
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OBP...OBP
Hitting .275 with zero power, and few walks is less than worthless, no matter how many bases you steal.
Look at the OBP man…….c;mon…this isn’t hard.
by shoewizard on
Aug 15, 2008 5:46 PM EDT
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Juan Pierre.
The team that might win, the Arizona Diamondbacks.
by srdmad on
Aug 15, 2008 10:49 PM EDT
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What about him ?
Juan Pierre sucks. And Juan Pierre is probably better than Bonifacio will ever be. If this is your big “comeback”, you need to take a closer look. (Seriously, instead of just throwing out a random name, try makng an actual point)
Pierre had a .375 OBP in his minor league career. That ended up translating to a .346 OBP in the majors. Of course a big chunk of that was put up in Coors field. Juan Pierre’s OBP the last 4 years has topped .330 only once.
Pierre’s career OPS+ is only 83. (100 = average)
Bonifacio’s minor league career OBP is just .340, and he played in better hitters parks than Pierre did. He’ll probably do well to have a .310-.320 OBP in the majors…….and thats just not good enough. Not if you can’t hit for any power.
Either you understand this or you don’t.
I can’t help you any further.
by shoewizard on
Aug 15, 2008 11:46 PM EDT
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305, 326, 276, 292, 293, 279. Average not playing for the Rockies.
310, 327, 287, Average playing for the Rockies. 361, 374, 326, 330, 331, 327. OBP not playing for the Rockies. 353, 378, 332. OBP playing for the Rockies. 6 seasons compared to 3, so to say that a big chunk of his stats were put up in Coors Field, is ridiculous. Once he got on base, except for his first year and this year, at least 45 SB. And he scored runs, again except for his first year and this year, at least 87 runs.
The team that might win, the Arizona Diamondbacks.
by srdmad on
Aug 16, 2008 9:51 PM EDT
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Time to put your thinking cap on
First of all…..Pierre has NOTHING to do with Bonifacio
You have not given me even ONE piece of information to support your theory that Bonifacio is any good. NOT ONE. All you did was throw out Juan Pierre’s name.
You seem to like fast guys that don’t get on base enough and don’t have power though, so I will address your Pierre fetish. Perhaps by reading this, you will come to greater understanding.
look at his baseball reference.com page
http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/pierrju01.shtml
1.) His career OBP is .347. league average for his league and ballparks is…. .347
(look under “special batting” section.
The most important thing he has had to do in his career as a leadoff hitter, he has been average at. He had a few years early in his career he was above average and he has obviously had more than a few years he has been below average at getting on base…..and it all adds up to a career league average OBP. It’s not disputable.
2.) He has ZERO power. The two most important things in baseball for a hitter are getting on base , not making outs, and hitting for power. In the first thing he has been merely average, in the second he has been at the very bottom. It all adds up to a player that is unproductive.
3.) You completely overrate his stolen bases, and clearly don’t have the proper handle on the value of the stolen base. Basically a stolen base has about 1/3 the value of a single. Of course a Caught stealing not only the nullifies one successful stolen base, but more like 2 or 3. The “break even” point for stolen bases is somewhere between 72-75 , depending on which analyst you talk to. Juan Pierre’s stolen base rate is 75, or just about break even. It’s not really much of a plus at all.
On top of that, It’s almost impossible for him to steal enough bases to make up for his poor combination of average OBP and Zero Power.
4.) You talk about runs scored totals, ….but you fail to grasp the concept of RATE. How many of his team’s outs did Pierre have to use up to score that many runs? Look closely, he played every game, (up until this year) and got over 700 Plate Appearances every year, those run totals are LOW if anything. A guy leading off 700-750 times every year should probably be scoring more than 90-100 runs.
You want to talk counting stats ? (i.e. the things you add up)
Juan Pierre’s ranking in OUTS MADE from 2003-2007
Outs
2003 NL-511-1
2004 NL-507-2
2005 NL-514-2
2006 NL-532-1
2007 NL-519-3
Basically you have made the mistake of buying into “conventional wisdom” that is outdated and pretty much been proven wrong. Slap hitters that don’t walk, and don’t have a lot of power don’t really produce runs for a team. Old habits die hard, and the amount of playing time that Pierre got is testament to that. But even a guy like Joe Torre finally figured it out and benched him.
You throwing out Pierre as some kind of defense of Bonifacio not only shows a lack of understanding of these principals, but your method of argument here shows a stunning lack of logic. Bonifacio has shown himself to be an inferior player to Pierre at every stage and level of his minor league career, and Pierre isn’t good. So how is that a defense of Bonifacio.
Emilio is fast, and he can play second base. Thats it. He can’t get on base often enough. He doesn’t even make contact enough to utilize his only weapon, his speed. He has no power. Outside of fantasy baseball, where steals do matter much more than they do in real life, he has no value whatsoever as an offensive player. And even now…he’s not stealing bases, because…you know…you can’t steal first base.
Speaking of fantasy baseball, I’ll leave you with this. It’s an update from CBS Sportsline that I happened to read this afternoon.
Emilio Bonifacio, 2B WAS
News: The Sports Xchange notes, Nationals 2B Emilio Bonifacio started the game Friday with a double, but then struck out in his next four at-bats, giving him 15 strikeouts in his last 27 at-bats compared to two hits.
Now you can continue arguing, just for the sake of arguing, or you can ask questions, and find out where you can find out more information and reading material to help you get a better handle on these matters. It’s up to you.
Good luck.
by shoewizard on
Aug 16, 2008 11:40 PM EDT
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You forgot to mention
that Juan Pierre also looks like a 13 year old, which obviously deducts from his value….
Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers: Filling the dubious shoes left open by Barry Bonds and the Giants.
by DbacksSkins on
Aug 17, 2008 2:35 AM EDT
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I guess the Nationals think Bonifacio sucks too,
that’s why they traded away a crappy reliever. Right?
The team that might win, the Arizona Diamondbacks.
by srdmad on
Aug 17, 2008 10:31 AM EDT
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Shoe...
If this doesn’t illustrate why you’re wasting your time with your well-thought-out and insightful posts, nothing will.
by Azreous on
Aug 17, 2008 12:02 PM EDT
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indeed.
"There are only two seasons: winter and baseball"
-- Bill Veeck
by njjohn on
Aug 17, 2008 2:26 PM EDT
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Yeah
I tried.
Oh well. You are right. Waste of bandwidth to talk to this guy.
by shoewizard on
Aug 17, 2008 2:47 PM EDT
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Good reason to stop talking.
Waste of bandwidth.
The team that might win, the Arizona Diamondbacks.
by srdmad on
Aug 17, 2008 3:59 PM EDT
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Choosing to ignore the reasonable arguments of other people doesn’t make you the better person.
Am I avoiding the subject, or am I doing philosophy?
by kishi on
Aug 17, 2008 11:43 PM EDT
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So your saying he is the better person.
Maybe Juan Pierre made alot of outs, cause he had alot of at bats.
The best rotation lies in the desert.
by srdmad on
Aug 18, 2008 8:18 PM EDT
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and he had a lot of at bats because he couldn’t draw a BB to save his life.
"There are only two seasons: winter and baseball"
-- Bill Veeck
by njjohn on
Aug 18, 2008 8:58 PM EDT
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I have a feeling
nobody would disagree.
Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers: Filling the dubious shoes left open by Barry Bonds and the Giants.
by DbacksSkins on
Aug 17, 2008 5:10 PM EDT
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And you just can't stop talking either can you?
The team that might win, the Arizona Diamondbacks.
by srdmad on
Aug 17, 2008 8:34 PM EDT
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LET IT REST!!
srdmad — Quit poking the bears already!
Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers: Filling the dubious shoes left open by Barry Bonds and the Giants.
by DbacksSkins on
Aug 18, 2008 1:49 PM EDT
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It's what I do.
The best rotation lies in the desert.
by srdmad on
Aug 18, 2008 8:19 PM EDT
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Well,
if you enjoy posting here, you’ll strongly consider giving it up, because you’re rapidly wearing out any goodwill you had left.
Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers: Filling the dubious shoes left open by Barry Bonds and the Giants.
by DbacksSkins on
Aug 18, 2008 9:02 PM EDT
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Enjoy?
I do it cause I have nothing else to do during the game.
The best rotation lies in the desert.
by srdmad on
Aug 19, 2008 4:27 PM EDT
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Cheers Shoe
Even if it wasn’t the main purpose, I actually found that really useful :)
So...time for another drink then?
by Wimb on
Aug 18, 2008 10:43 AM EDT
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Glad to be of service
Actually when engaged in this type of debate, one can almost never actually sway the mind of the person being debated. Often times the content is more useful for the “innocent bystanders” than the person actually being posted to. ;)
by shoewizard on
Aug 18, 2008 10:55 AM EDT
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Thus the genesis
of the long drawn out arguments in the statistical fielding analysis “debate” with Foulpole.
I knew that he would never even bother to read my posts, but I hoped that at least some other people out there would find it to be of merit and learn something new – or even just point out some faulty line of reasoning in my ideas and teach me something new.
by dahlian on
Aug 19, 2008 2:46 AM EDT
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Juan Pierre
got away with being just fast when he was able to hit .320.
Juan Pierre when hitting .275 is simply an albatross.
Also, you have a better change of getting away with being “just fast” when you constantly put the ball in play. As a minor leaguer JP only struck out once every 17.48 at bats. Bonifacio in the minors struck out once every 4.84 at bats.
Are you so blind that you can’t even see these most basic principles of talent evaluation?
by dahlian on
Aug 16, 2008 12:25 AM EDT
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"simply an albatross"
Especially with the contract LA gave him….
Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers: Filling the dubious shoes left open by Barry Bonds and the Giants.
by DbacksSkins on
Aug 16, 2008 3:38 PM EDT
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For the record...
That’s an accurate recap of exactly what happened. I’m not sure how that helps your argument though.
by Azreous on
Aug 13, 2008 2:30 AM EDT
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It's not giving up on a player
When the return is a valuable player who fills a pressing team need , and that player has several years of control at minimal cost.
Also, please note that Emilio’s BA is the same as his OBP. His next walk in Washington will be his first. He has nearly 3000 minor league plate appearance with a .340 OBP, and that includes a Lancaster inflated season of .375.
I have 50 bucks that says he doesn’t put up an OBP north of .340 or an ops above .700 in any of the next 3 full seasons.
Small sample size fluke. He’s not a .375 hitter. In fact tonight he went 0-4 and is down to .333
Check back in 4 weeks.
by shoewizard on Aug 9, 2008 1:47 AM EDT 0 recs
Don't forget his contact rates
For a no-power, slap-hitting speedster he sure does a crummy job of putting the ball in play.
He’s struck out in a third of his at bats this season – and that’s coming against the vaunted pitching staffs of the Cincinnati Reds and Colorado Rockies.
by dahlian on
Aug 10, 2008 12:54 AM EDT
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Yesterday's events
Turned the above completely on its head, given our most ‘pressing team need’ is now someone who can play second-base. We weren’t to know, of course – but this team’s lack of depth has been painfully and ruthlessly exposed. We have our first-baseman playing in left, and now our second-base players have OPS+ of 66 and 76.
I foresee lots of extra at-bats for Chris Burke in the next two months. :-(
by Jim McLennan on
Aug 10, 2008 2:30 PM EDT
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As my dad said last night...
Hindsight is 20/20. Sadly, it’s too true.
by emilylovesthedbacks on
Aug 10, 2008 3:03 PM EDT
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I think it's about a wash,
since I don’t have any more faith in Boni’s bat going forward as I do in Chris Burke’s bat.
by dahlian on
Aug 10, 2008 5:02 PM EDT
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Wow....
that’s harsh!
Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers: Filling the dubious shoes left open by Barry Bonds and the Giants.
by DbacksSkins on
Aug 10, 2008 8:05 PM EDT
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0-5
3 Ks, today.
I wonder how much longer they’ll keep him at lead off.
by dahlian on
Aug 12, 2008 11:41 PM EDT
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It’s still a good deal. If Reynolds can shift over next year, then things look really good for us.
"There are only two seasons: winter and baseball"
-- Bill Veeck
by njjohn on
Aug 10, 2008 9:56 PM EDT
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Ojeda is just as good as Bonifacio
Maybe even better. And neither would be good full time solutions for next year. I don’t feel Hudson’s injury really changes anything with regards to evaluating Bonifacio’s future OR the recent trade that brought us Rauch.
I don’t expect you to take my word as gospel, but really please trust me when I tell you there is little chance that Bonifacio makes you regret that trade…...even with the Hudson injury.
by shoewizard on
Aug 11, 2008 2:17 AM EDT
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Going to agree with Shoe here
The whole point of scouting and projections is that you use them to make an call on a payers value.
You can’t look at every prospect who has a little bit of talent and say “oh we better not trade him as he might turn into Dan Uggla” that’s just stupid as chances are 99/100 players who the scouts say won’


