Diamondbacks 4, Marlins 5: Fire Chip Hale

by Jim McLennan on Aug 23, 2008 2:17 AM EDT Comment 52 comments

Record: 67-61. Pace: 85-77. Change on last season: -5
Magic number: 33. Playoff odds: 64.0%

Lolbacks31_medium

Ooh, where to start? Wretched clutch hitting. Another loss for the bullpen, running their record this year to 10-20? Three errors? And third-base coach Chip Hale is not going to be opening a hospice in the near future, since he firmly believes in sending everybody home to die. Let's start there. It's nice he has this touching faith that the likes of Chris Snyder and, tonight, Miguel Montero possess the speed of Usain Bolt on crack, capable of scoring from second on a line-drive back up the middle, right to the center fielder. Yet again, he was proven wildly wrong: Mark Grace spouted his usual BS about how it forces the opponents to make a play, and it would have taken a perfect play to get the runner. That's utter bilge; Anna Nicole Smith could have thrown out Montero, and she's been dead for eighteen months.

I've had enough of Hale's reckless abandon at third - he rarely sees a ball hit to the outfield he didn't love. We might as well just plug in an electric fan and let that man the hot corner instead. About the only time I've seen him hold the runner, Augie Ojeda ran right through the stop-sign...and scored easily. Of course, who can say what might have happened had the runner been held? We may not have scored any runs anyway. Or we might still be batting. But we would have had the top of the order up, against a pitcher undoubtedly discomforted by having allowed a hit to his opposite number - and it never seems a good idea to hand the opposition free outs, which is what Hale did. I don't know what the other duties of a third-base coach might be. But I know that Chip is dire at what appears to the main one.

So, the 42% of you who voted for Jon Rauch as closer down the stretch. How do you feel about that choice after tonight? Two runs - and very nearly two home-runs, with a ball that was a prime candidate for instant replay - in one inning of work, and a one-run lead is converted to a one-run deficit. These were not good pitches where you have to tip your cap to the batter. This was 6'11" of heavily-tattooed mediocrity on the mound, running our bullpen's record to 0-6 since July 11. Rauch's record during his last five outings and innings: eight hits, three homers and six earned runs: in the longer term, his ERA over 15 games since coming to Arizona is a hardly-impressive 5.03.

Switching my ire to the offense, and in particular our failure to add to the lead in the seventh, after a Drew RBI single and Young RBI double had given Arizona the lead for the second time that night. That meant Randy Johnson had a shot at win #295, even after he'd been replaced by a pinch-hitter. Jackson was walked to load the bases, but reliever Rhodes got Dunn to watch strike three, his third K of the night. The Treadmill barked at the umpire afterwards, but to be fair to the man in the mask, James Hoye, he'd been giving the Big Unit exactly the same pitch all night. Chad Tracy, inevitably, failed to add any insurance runs: he's batting .173 [9-for-52] in August, and might be the one benched when Upton returns. Romero also killed a comeback in the eight, grounding into an inning-ending double-play with two men on, though the ball did take a fortuitous bounce off the mound.

Johnson continued to impress, except for his fielding - Tracy was charged with one of the night's trio of errors on a pick-off throw, but I think the official scorer was simply too scared to give it to Randy. The box-score currently says Johnson only had one of the three runs as earned, but I'm not sure why it wouldn't be two - that's still decent, over seven innings of work. What isn't in doubt, is that he returned to his old days of being a strikeout machine, with thirteen K's - that's the most he's had since August 31st, 2004, when he fanned fifteen Dodgers. He did walk three, but those did no real harm: it was the three stolen bases, in particular the one by Amezaga in the seventh, that were more problematic.

Anyone escape criticism? Jackson reached twice, on a hit and a walk, while there were two hits each for Drew, Montero and Ojeda. The last-named also got hit by a pitch, which gives him a share of the team lead, on eight. That's the same as Conor Jackson, who has about 270 more at-bats. Ojeda is actually getting plunked at a faster rate this year - once every 23.5 PA's - than major-league leader Carlos Quentin (one per 26.4). This is quite a feat: you'd imagine he'd present a smaller target than usual, the case throughout the rest of his career, where he had only four HBPs in 235 games prior to this season.

[Click to enlarge, in new window]
Master of his domain: Augie Ojeda, +18.4%
Honorable mentions: Montero, +16.3%; Drew, +13.2%
God-emperor of suck: Jon Rauch: -42.7%
Dishonorable mentions: Romero, -24.4%; Dunn, -15.0%; Tracy, -13.5%

A pretty subdued Gameday Thread, short of 300 comments. I know my enthusiasm evaporated after Hale's rally-killing over-enthusiasm: the loss that followed seemed almost inevitable, with everything else, such as our first comeback, simply extending the agony unnecessarily. Present were: Zephon, snakecharmer, emilylovesthedbacks, kishi, TwinnerA, foulpole, utahdbacksfan, AJforAZ, Azreous, Muu, hotclaws, Captain D Bag, srdmad, Shums, Scrbl and pepperdinedevil.

So, with the Dodgers getting smacked around in Philadelphia, we wasted a golden opportunity to pull three games clear, and remain two up. Still, if we had to pick a night to suck in a variety of ways, and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, I'd rather it was tonight and not Saturday, when we'll all be at the park for SnakePitFest '08, to which I am looking forward enormously. It should be a lot of fun - i believe there may be cheesecake! - and I'm hoping a lot of people bring cameras: ours appears to be non-functioning and I'm not sure we'll be able to resurrect it between now and the afternoon. Let's get 'em tomorrow!

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Oh no.

I was worried you might do that, Jim. It’s my night on the recap, and I just finished it. lol

I looked for you on GMail, but you didn’t seem to be about. Ah well.

by Azreous on Aug 23, 2008 2:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Sorry!

I completely spaced this out. :-( I was very p’d off at that game, and it never crossed my mind. Oh, but any chance I can get you to do NEXT Saturday? It’s our film event, and I’ll be buried in the bowels of Chandler Cinema all day and night, so probably won’t even know the score.

by Jim McLennan on Aug 23, 2008 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hey, no worries.

I should’ve mentioned it in the GDT just to be sure.

Yeah, I can hit Tuesday and Saturday next week. No problem.

by Azreous on Aug 23, 2008 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Eh, the hell with it.

I’ll just post it anyway.

====

Marlins 5, Diamondbacks 4 – Dirty Sanchez

Ah, the lingering taste of disappointment. It remains in your mouth no matter how many times you brush your teeth or furiously gnash on Tic-Tacs. The only thing that seems to rid your taste buds of the putrid flavor is one of two things: time, or getting a chance to undo the disappointment. Unfortunately, neither of those are available right now.

Randy Johnson was on the bump tonight, searching for career win number 295 in his unlikely quest to reach 300 this season. To sum up his performance in a word would be to trivialize it, but still: marvelous. This was a slightly modified version of the early 2000’s Johnson, who hammered the strike zone with pitches, worked consistently from ahead in the count, and set batters down on strikes at an alarming rate. Unfortunately, all of his work was for naught. We’ll get to that in a bit.

Johnson gave up just one earned run in seven innings, scattering six hits, walking three batters (one intentionally) and striking out 13. The 13 strikeouts were the most by any Diamondback pitcher this season, and it was Johnson’s best K night since 2004, when he struck out 15 in one game. Although he clearly started to labor around the 90-pitch mark, he continued to battle until he finished the seventh with 116 pitches, and trailing 3-2. The performance might not have been so surprising had the radar gun on top of the FSN broadcast been at all correct; at one point, it flashed 105 mph for one Johnson fastball, and a couple other times falsely registered 97. Still, Johnson was working the outside corner with the fastball and splitter, and had a biting slider to use as an out pitch.

Meanwhile, the offense got off to a quick start against Sanchez, which automatically made their performance better than the last time he faced the Diamondbacks (the no-hitter, of course). But they wasted a two-on, one-out opportunity in the first — which would end up being a recurring theme on this night. In the second, they jumped out to a 2-0 lead on an RBI double by Montero (a surprising starter given Johnson’s success with Snyder behind the plate) and a sacrifice fly by Drew that was only a couple feet from being gone.

The Marlins came back by scratching together runs. In the fourth, Uggla singled with two outs and stole second. After a walk to Hemls, Ross doubled in a run — but the Unit got out of the inning. Then, in the fifth, Amezaga got a leadoff single, moved to second on an error on a pickoff throw, to third on a groundout, and scored on a sacrifice fly by Cantu. Suddenly it was tied, and things weren’t looking so rosy.

It didn’t help that another opportunity was wasted in the bottom of the fourth. Montero reached on an HBP with one out, and moved to second on an Ojeda groundout. Randy Johnson, of all people, singled into center field with two outs, but Windmill Hale sent the backup catcher home, where an average throw had him beat by four steps.

In the seventh, Florida scratched across another two-out, small-ball run. Amezaga singled again, and this time stole second and scored on a base hit. Johnson battled to get through the inning though, and left in the aforementioned 3-2 hole.

As they did a couple weeks ago, however, the offense responded. With Randy still the pitcher of record, Ojeda was hit by a pitch with one out. Tony Clark pinch hit for Johnson and walked. Drew singled to drive in a run, and Young doubled to bring in another, and just like that the Diamondbacks retook the lead and put RJ in position for the win. However, with second and third, still just one out and an opportunity to blow the game open (or at least add an insurance run), Jackson was semi-intentionally walked to load the bases. Dunn struck out looking, and Tracy flew out right at the center fielder. Threat defused, and it would prove to be costly right away.

Enter Jon Rauch, who supposedly is the new closer incarnate despite Lyon’s relative success in actual save situations. Rauch gave up a home run that wasn’t off the bat of Willingham. On instant replay, which fortunately for us has not been implemented yet, the ball struck the railing behind the line in left, then caromed off the yellow line and back in play in front of a sprawled Jackson, who didn’t make a great effort on the play as it was. Should’ve been gone, but as it was Willingham stopped at third base. Uggla hit the ball hard but right at Reynolds…but Helms hit another shot that was more than deep enough to be a sac fly, and just like that the hopes of 295 evaporated. It didn’t help that Ross homered in the very next at-bat, in what would ultimately be the final margin.

After the deflating top of the eighth, the Diamondbacks had the chance to tie the score with runners on first and second and one out, but again the opportunity went by the wayside, as Romero grounded into a double play. There were no such opportunities in the ninth; three feeble at-bats and just like that the game was over.

A decent night for the offense. Drew continued to shine in the leadoff spot, with a couple of hits and RBIs. Montero and Ojeda also had two hits at the bottom of the lineup. Dunn was 0-for-4 with three Ks, the first time he’s failed to reach base in a game as a Diamondback.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers got clobbered by the Phillies 8-1 in Maddux’s L.A. debut, leaving them two games behind. The Rockies lost, and Lincecum two-hit the Padres over eight innings to keep his Cy Young hopes alive. Santana had seven shutout innings of his own. The Cardinals put an absolute beating on the Braves, with 18 runs on 26 hits, none of which were long balls.

It’s Snakepitfestapaloozathon tomorrow, and I’m sure Jim has more on tap as well as some thoughts on this game. I’ll be there, and be square. Petit takes the mound, and it’d be nice if he could sustain his consistency for at least one more start. If nothing else, we could all use a taste of something new.

by Azreous on Aug 23, 2008 2:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Meanwhile, the Dodgers got clobbered by the Phillies 8-1 in Maddux’s L.A. debut

To everyone who was expecting Greg Maddux (2008 Edition) to be the final domino that sends the Dodgers to the NL West title — well, I don’t wanna say “I told you so”, but….

Speaking of which, so I finally saw The Dark Knight today. ::hides face in shame::

Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers: Filling the dubious shoes left open by Barry Bonds and the Giants.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 23, 2008 4:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Finally!

At least you saw it. I can give you partial credit for that.

by emilylovesthedbacks on Aug 23, 2008 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks!

For the recaps, guys. I enjoyed reading both of them.

"We...probed them all the way through. They're completely meat." — Terry Bisson

by Scrbl on Aug 23, 2008 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Chip Hale

I have to come to his defense. Even 2 nights ago on Jackson’s double (which was hit very hard) he did send Chris Young in from first (who i will admit has blazing speed) but the only reason we got the extra run there is because the Padres left fielder missed the cut off man……Last night, I agreed with sending him home too. The whole name of the game is that you have to make the other team make a play (Like grace pointed out) . In this instance they did so you tip your cap to them…..What if we held Montero at third?? We still would have been out of the inning without a run anyway……..I say to chip hale- Keep it up!!!!!!!!!

by Quin on Aug 23, 2008 8:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You don't know that

If circumstances are changed, i.e. Montero is held at third, there is no way of knowing what would have happened. I never assume the same thing will happen/follow. Maybe it would have, maybe it wounldn’t.

by TwinnerA on Aug 23, 2008 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But it's not

just one instance. The D-Backs have turned getting out at home into a strange, and very frustrating, form of art. Like the other mistakes the team made during The Big Slump™, I expect them to disappear as the team learns its business. But we’re still making the same baserunning mistakes we have all year. I would really like to see Hale show some better judgment.

"We...probed them all the way through. They're completely meat." — Terry Bisson

by Scrbl on Aug 23, 2008 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd like to know

if the D-Backs’ ~~asinine~~ aggressive baserunning is really hurting the team as badly as it seems. At one point someone had stats for the league leaders in “outs at home”. Does anyone remember where they came from?

"We...probed them all the way through. They're completely meat." — Terry Bisson

by Scrbl on Aug 23, 2008 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That would be

These. it shows Arizona as fractionally above average overall, but particularly bad in losing runners from second [thid in the NL], Those figures are a month out of date, and we seem to have seen a few particularly-bad cases of late.

by Jim McLennan on Aug 23, 2008 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks, Jim!

"We...probed them all the way through. They're completely meat." — Terry Bisson

by Scrbl on Aug 23, 2008 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Im with you 50%

I agree that we have been horrible at baserunning this year (getting stuck between home and third, picked of first, etc ) . I know I may contradict my earlier post but what im saying is if there is going to be a close play at home I would rather take the chance because that puts pressure on the other to make a play. Of course if its not even going to be close then heck why waste our time ya know….I personally didnt see the play with Montero so I dont even know how close it was…..

I know a long time ago I heard an old saying that if the outfielder is fielding the ball when the baserunner is touching third its going to be bang bang at the plate….would be interesting to find out how Hale determines whether to send the runner or not….of course there are other factors that factor in, such as the fielders arm strength, point in the game, etc etc but it would be interesting to know their/his principle on the topic….

by Quin on Aug 23, 2008 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You can see the play

In the recap here. It’s around the 1:10 mark of the recap. Be interested to hear what you think. However, I took a screen-shot to show how far Montero was from the plate: I’ve highlighted the ball for easier viewing.

The ball is already almost in the catcher’s glove and Montero is still perhaps 20 feet from home. [I was amused to note that Montero slid so far back of the plate, trying to avoid the tage that he entirely missed home-plate!]

by Jim McLennan on Aug 23, 2008 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not even close

Hey thanks for digging that up for us! but looking at the play Montero shouldnt have been sent. You can see in the reply at Montero wasnt even touching 3rd (he was maybe one stride or 1.5 away from touching 3rd) when the center fielder picked up the ball. So maybe it is true that if the fielder does reach the ball before the runner touches third that you have to hold the runner…..I stand corrected on this play, thanks Jim!! :).

by Quin on Aug 23, 2008 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That sounds

like a solid rule. Especially when the runner on second isn’t a blazing speedster and the next batter has been hitting the ball very well.

"We...probed them all the way through. They're completely meat." — Terry Bisson

by Scrbl on Aug 23, 2008 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Puts on snarky hat

I think Hale’s decision making process looks a little like this:

1. Is there a runner?
2. Go! Go! Go! Go!!

Snarkiness aside, I didn’t see the play either. I was listening to it on the radio. But as soon as the runners started, I felt like I knew the outcome. It feels like Chip is counting on the other team to make fielding errors. I’d rather we counted on our batters to have successful at-bats.

"We...probed them all the way through. They're completely meat." — Terry Bisson

by Scrbl on Aug 23, 2008 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

of course there are other factors that factor in, such as the fielders arm strength, point in the game, etc etc

Size of the park?

Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers: Filling the dubious shoes left open by Barry Bonds and the Giants.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 23, 2008 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

O heck yeah! haha, that too!

by Quin on Aug 23, 2008 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Appreciate the comment

Though, as pointed out, we don’t know what might have happened if we’d held Montero at third. It certainly wouldn’t have been any worse than sending Montero on a suicidal dash to home. The top of the order would have faced a rattled pitcher; who’s to say we wouldn’t have got a hit or more?

As for the other team “making a play,” they’re professionals. It’s what they do. :-) If you have to rely on the opposing team committing an error to get the runner home safely, then he shouldn’t be sent. Maybe it’s just me, though…

In the calm light of morning, I do feel I was somewhat harsh on Hale in the heat of my passion for the team, and disappointment at losing that one through our own ineptness. Like a closer, third-base coaches only get noticed when they screw up. But in a ferocious pennant-race like this, every unnecessary out we run into on the base-paths is potentially a dagger to our heart.

by Jim McLennan on Aug 23, 2008 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Like a closer, third-base coaches only get noticed when they screw up.

Like a manager too, usually. And, in my own experience, like a coxswain.

Much more than Chip Hale, I’d blame our offense for having the bases loaded with one out and not getting anymore runs….

Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers: Filling the dubious shoes left open by Barry Bonds and the Giants.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 23, 2008 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wasn't happy with this either.

There’s plenty of blame to go around. But the combination of excitement and disappointment that comes when a player gets caught on his way home is hard to shake. That it was a lousy decision, and one that we’ve made several times already, makes it even worse.

"We...probed them all the way through. They're completely meat." — Terry Bisson

by Scrbl on Aug 23, 2008 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Making Plays

Yes making plays is what they do but so many times it can go wrong….there are so many different factors that can play into it, maybe a high throw to the cut off man, who bobbles the exchange etc etc…

LOL, I think too many times I compare the pro game to my high school baseball days and when we forced the other team to make a play they rarely did! :) Sooooo, you may be right, and especially with Drew coming up (Mr. Clutch lately) we might have added that much needed tally.

by Quin on Aug 23, 2008 12:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Chip Hale no longer

I think it’s safe to say that Hale will not be the 3B coach next year. Rarely do you see a base coach change mid-season, but I would fully expect a replacement come next spring. Hale has a good baseball mind, but his skills as a base coach are not up to snuff.

by dbacksbuzz on Aug 23, 2008 12:49 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I hope so

But if the D-Backs continue to succeed in spite of their (in my very biased opinion) substandard coaching, I’m a little worried that the FO may take it as a sign that everything is OK.

"We...probed them all the way through. They're completely meat." — Terry Bisson

by Scrbl on Aug 23, 2008 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sooo True!

Good point!

by Quin on Aug 23, 2008 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I really have been unimpressed

With the coaching staff this year. We seem to keep making the same errors e.g. on the base-paths, time and again, without them being corrected. There’s no denying the raw talent present on the roster, but most of them are still young players, work in progress: I think perhaps the staff sit back too much and think, “Well, they’re major-leaguers, they don’t need to learn any more.”

by Jim McLennan on Aug 23, 2008 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This

is exactly what frustrated me about our coaches this year.

"We...probed them all the way through. They're completely meat." — Terry Bisson

by Scrbl on Aug 23, 2008 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

That position may

Be a poisoned chalice in some way – as noted, you only notice it when they screw up. Anyone remember a previous windmill, Eddie Rodriguez? Equally maligned for similar tendencies.

When Hale managed Tucson to the AAA World Series a few years back, there was some serious debate about whether he might be the next manager of the Diamondbacks. At the time, I wouldn’t have minded that at all, but based purely on his game management skills, I am a lot less impressed now.

by Jim McLennan on Aug 23, 2008 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ERod?

Yeah — he was pretty “aggressive”, too.

I wouldn’t mind Chip being our next manager, though. He’s got teh skills and I think he’s good at motivation and pitcher management. (Granted, I’ve seen him slightly more up-close than most Dbacks fans) All I would want is for him to learn from his mistakes and get a 3B coach more experienced than himself.

Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers: Filling the dubious shoes left open by Barry Bonds and the Giants.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 23, 2008 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Learning from mistakes

has been a big D-Backs weakness this year. I don’t think I trust him (or any of the coaching staff) to make this kind of improvement.

"We...probed them all the way through. They're completely meat." — Terry Bisson

by Scrbl on Aug 23, 2008 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

El Paso Diablos

I also have seen Chip up close and think he is going to be a great manager. I live in southern new mexico (about an hour from El Paso) and a couple years back we used to make frequent trips to El Paso to see Chipy’s team. He had some very good years. In double A El Paso he used to be his own third base coach…..maybe he couldnt find anyone better at the windmill? LOL!

He is a very intense manager and i think he likes making all the decisions so maybe that was why we was at third….I remember a couple times when a player missed a sign Chipy would throw his gum into the outfield! I loved seeing his fire out there!

by Quin on Aug 23, 2008 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Come to think of it

Chad Tracy played third for him, Erubiel Durazo was down there too (dont know if it was the same year)….I remember Alex Cabrera coming through El Paso!! That dude could kill a fastball!! (but he was horrible with any pitch that had bend to it)

Luis Tererro was another high prospect who came through, I wonder what happened to him!!!??

I remember one day reading in the El Paso Times that some 18 year old kid was going to be starting the next night……low and behold it turned out to be Tony Pena faking his age!! Man all those memories from when the Diablos were attached to the Dbacks!

by Quin on Aug 23, 2008 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think he coached 3rd also at Tucson.

by Bcawz on Aug 24, 2008 1:23 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah. He did.

In the same way that Bill Plummer is his own 3B coach now as well.

Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers: Filling the dubious shoes left open by Barry Bonds and the Giants.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 25, 2008 3:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Another Stats Question

Does anyone know how often runners are thrown out in these situations (runner on second, single to the outfield, throw to home)? 50? 75? 25%?

It pains me to give Windmill Chip the benefit of the doubt, but even the best batters wouldn’t drive that runner in from third more than 50% of the time. Maybe sending Montero was the higher percentage play.

On the other hand, if you actually watched the play and saw the outfielder get to the ball before Montero got to 3rd, it still looks like a bad decision.

Now I’m kinda conflicted.

"We...probed them all the way through. They're completely meat." — Terry Bisson

by Scrbl on Aug 23, 2008 1:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Windmill Chip

I think, instead, I’m gonna call him Don Chipote. Or maybe just Don Chip.

"We...probed them all the way through. They're completely meat." — Terry Bisson

by Scrbl on Aug 23, 2008 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Its a hard place

to be a coach I will say that because that have to give that sign in an instance, but hey thats what they are paid for right?!

I like being so called aggressive but you I think Chipy has to have a balance with it too, cant be stupid though….where that balance is I really dont know. Jim you are right though, it does seem like the past month we have been getting gunned down at home on a regular basis….would be interesting to see those baseball prospectus stats updated and see where we sit….

by Quin on Aug 23, 2008 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Still looking for that

Don’t know if I’ll have any luck, but in the process I found this story from June:
————————————————————
Four runners in row thrown out at plate late in Nuts’ 11-inning loss

Modesto made the final out of the ninth inning at home, then proceeded to have three runners thrown out at home in the 10th inning, opening the door for the San Jose Giants to grab a 6-4 victory in 11 innings on Thursday night. Modesto appeared poised to win the game in the ninth when Anthony Jackson led off with a triple to right. He remained there with one out and the bases loaded, and got a good jump off third base on Nick Haley’s fly to short center but was called out at home on a close play. It was a sign of things to come, because Michael McKenry was hit to lead off the 10th and scooted to third when Travis Becktel’s sacrifice bunt was thrown away at first base.

After Becktel took second on indifference, Matt Repec hit a ground ball to shortstop, but McKenry was thrown out easily at home. Jason Van Kooten also hit the ball hard, but right at third base and Becktel was gunned down at home. To complete the improbable home plate trifecta, Jackson lined a potential game-winning single to left, only to have Repec gunned down in a collision at the plate.
————————————————————
Do you think Hale was coaching there too? :-)

by Jim McLennan on Aug 23, 2008 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow.

"We...probed them all the way through. They're completely meat." — Terry Bisson

by Scrbl on Aug 23, 2008 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I've read that headline a dozen times

and it still makes me cringe:

Four runners in row thrown out at plate late in Nuts’ 11-inning loss

"We...probed them all the way through. They're completely meat." — Terry Bisson

by Scrbl on Aug 23, 2008 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Now there is

a third base coach who needs to get fired!! LOL!

by Quin on Aug 23, 2008 1:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Here's an interesting chart

On a sac fly, what is the cutoff probability for success on attempting to score? Based on the number of runs you’d expect to score [say with a runner on third and one], you can work out the break-even point for trying to send the runner.

Obviously, the situation is a little different here, not least because Montero had already sprinted from second to third, but the basic principle is the same:
Send him and he scores: one run, plus a man on first, two outs = 1.25 runs expected
Send him, and he fails: zero runs expected
Hold him: 0.54 runs expected.

With a man on first and third, and two outs, you should send the runner if you think he has a .54/1.25 = 43% chance of scoring. Now, the question is, whether you think Montero had that good a chance. In my mind, it would have taken a significant mistake to get him home, and I don’t think those happen 43% of the time in pro ball.

by Jim McLennan on Aug 23, 2008 1:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Sending Montero, specifically,

was high risk (ie dumb) for several reasons apart from the fact he doesnt run well. First, there’s only a dozen or so ML outfielders with more assists per inning than Cody Ross. Second, he’s playing in with the pitcher batting, and as previously noted, it was a hard hit ball right at him. And third, one of your hottest sticks (Drew) is on deck. There’ll always be countervailing points, like you dont want Randy languishing on the bases (a pretty significant concern actually), but Montero was out by plenty and even if he was safe, Randy would still be out on the paths.

More generally, I think you guys are overreacting to – or at least being premature in your condemnation of – Hale. In addition to the caveats BP published about their own chart, the huge unknown there (and in this discussion) is the benefit of Chip’s…um…windmillishness. As you point out, these guys generally only get noticed when they screw up, but how many good sends (ie close plays where we’re safe) has he had? Or good holds, where a runner was saved the embarrassment of being rung up? I dont think any of us know that, and my hunch is that when we score on close plays, the tendency is to praise baserunners, hitters and Penelope Cruz before we give props to the coaches.

I was at the game and have additional items to report:

Tried a couple of Rey Glorias tamales and while not the very best I’ve ever had, they were still plenty good and the folks were friendly. I’d love to see them evolve into Chase’s first “signature” concession, but Derrick’s artificial price floor on all adult ballpark food (each tamale is $5) makes it an uphill battle. At $3 each, they’d make a killing, IMO, be able to expand production,etc.

The fireworks show was cut short after some kind of accident up on the garage roof. A couple minutes in, there were a bunch of really low bursts that looked to be right on the roof (ie ground level), followed by smoke and an abrupt stoppage of the show. A few minutes later, they shot off a finale barrage and called it a night, which makes me assume no one was badly hurt or killed.

Oh, and I got my right paw on Cody Ross’ bomb but couldnt snag it. You can see me at 2:33 in the recap. I’m the handsome dog over to the right, in the bright white shirt and Dbacks cap (purple, of course). 205 pounds and thrown around like a rag doll. Dang wife.

by Diamondhacks on Aug 23, 2008 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed about Hale

See you just put it in way better words! I think on this specific play he was wrong but on other plays I like him sending runners epecially when its going to be close (not out by a mile like last night)…..Our offense is doing pretty good now but prior to that I can understand sending a runner because we rarely could string together any hits to knock the runners in…..soooooo all in all I still think Chipy is doing a good job (but these boneheaded plays like last night make a huge dent in our trust of him, like Jim said)…

by Quin on Aug 23, 2008 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can understand this

but it seems like we’ve had a lot of pointless outs at home this year. I’m not sure if I’m imagining it, which is why I wanted to find some solid stats. And even if he is succeeding in other areas, seeing the same mistake over and over again makes me think he could do much better than he is now. If no one on the D-Backs has noticed this and encouraged him to improve, then shame on the organization. If Hale has noticed it (or been told about it) then shame on him for not fixing the problem.

If I hired an illustrator who repeatedly made the same stupid error, I’d refuse to accept his work until he did it correctly. If he couldn’t fix it, I’d assign him something that he wouldn’t screw up. Because if I didn’t fix the problem, my boss would fix it (and most likely me) himself. It really bothers me that the D-Backs don’t seem to put the same kind of emphasis on correcting their mistakes.

"We...probed them all the way through. They're completely meat." — Terry Bisson

by Scrbl on Aug 23, 2008 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

seeing the same mistake over and over again

I guess I dont see it as “the same” underlying mistake repeating itself, because there’s a ton of variables in each of Hale’s split second go/no go decisions. There’s a general distinction here, I think, between selective “results” and actionable “mistakes”.

It really bothers me that the D-Backs don’t seem to put the same kind of emphasis on correcting their mistakes.

I think they put plenty of emphasis on it. If it is the same identifiable underlying mistake, then I’m confident someone would’ve addressed it by now. It’s likely more complicated than that. I’m not saying Hale hasnt made mistakes, just that any third base coach who assumes risks inevitably does and there’s no evidence to show that coaches who never get guys thrown out are necessarily better coaches. They can cost their teams runs by being too safe.

We heard similar complaints when Eddie Rodriguez and Brian Butterfield coached third – they all made bad individual decisions – and good ones. I just dont see how that vague jumble of partial information makes any of them a “bad coach” in need of correction. This isnt office work, and with due respect, dumping on Hale generally sounds to me more akin to claiming someone’s a bad shortstop based on a few errors than it does to chastising a deskbound “9 to 5” editor for repeatedly letting bad illustrations or copy slip through :-)

by Diamondhacks on Aug 23, 2008 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Personally

It’s that some of the decisions have been so blatantly bad that concerns me. We’re not talking close plays at the plate, but where the runner has been thrown out by a huge margin. If I was the manager, I would certainly be looking for an explanation of these: based on what I’ve seen, either Hale has bad information on the speed of the players and/or opposing outfielders, or his actual decision-making is flawed. Either of these could, and should, be addresses – just as you would work to improve a shortstop who makes embarrassingly-bad errors.

by Jim McLennan on Aug 24, 2008 1:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well put

Getting thrown out by a mile may suggest multiple or particularly large ( and therefore correctable) miscalculations. The bang bang plays I dont worry nearly so much about.

I’m convinced Hale, like Melvin, has considerably more information to deal with than we do, and it’s possible some of that may be muddying up what is essentially a two part visual analysis: runner and ball. For example, mngmnt may’ve decided before the game that if Randy gets a hit, we’re sending the runner no matter what, on the basis that any hit by Randy is gravy anyway and a throw em out reduces Unit’s time on the bases. Sounds contrived, I know, but the latter is a significant concern, IMO.

by Diamondhacks on Aug 24, 2008 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Welp.

Time to pack up the car and head down the road. I’m sure I’ll be seeing some of you folks there.

by Azreous on Aug 23, 2008 4:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Issue raised with Bob Melvin

Link

The Diamondbacks have had five runners thrown out at home over the past four weeks, but Melvin said he has no problem with the aggressiveness shown by third-base coach Chip Hale. “I support every call that he’s made,” Melvin said. Hale sent Miguel Montero home on a single to center Friday night, but Marlins center fielder Cody Ross cut him down easily. “The guy was playing deep, he has to make a terrific throw, field it cleanly; I was all for it,” Melvin said. “In close games like that, you have to make them make the play.”

The guy was playing deep? Against the opposing pitcher? Never realized Randy Johnson was such a power threat. And again with the “perfect play” BS. Did he not see how far Montero was thrown out by? I trust Melvin is simply defending his minion in public, and is actually addressing the issue.

by Jim McLennan on Aug 24, 2008 1:33 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs