Park Adjusted Defensive Efficiency
Baseball Prospectus has an interesting article - the bulk is restricted to subscribers, but I feel I can pick out some extracts from that, to shed some light on to our fielding woes this season. Defensive Efficiency is a metric that measures the percentage of balls in play which a defense converts into outs. The higher the percentage, the better your defense. However, that raw figure masks variations between parks: as the article says, "The amount of foul territory, size of the outfield, irregularities in the field's dimensions, altitude, and surface of play can all have an impact on the degree of difficulty when it comes to defending one's home turf."
But just as you can come up with park factors that take into account a stadium's impact on hitters, so you can do so for its impact on fielders. Fenway, Dolphin Stadium, Progressive Field (formerly Jacobs Field), and Coors Field are hardest for fielders, while the Metrodome, Tropicana Field, McAfee Coliseum, and Petco Park are easiest. Arizona's three-year factor is 0.9950, slightly tougher than average. You can use this to come up with an overall figure for the percentage above or below ML average that a team converts into outs, when adjusted for the degree of difficulty provided by their home field. Each 1% is worth about 13 additional runs saved or allowed, which would be more than one win in the standings.
Overall, Arizona's defense is ranked ninth in the majors, having converted 0.59% more balls in play into outs than would be expected for a team playing at Chase. For comparison, top are the Cubs, at +2.60%, and worst are the Reds, all the way down at -4.30%. That figure is the best in the division, by quite some distance - we're the only team better than average, well ahead of the Giants (-0.94%); the rest of the West trails in below them, with the Padres and Rockies tied for worst, at -1.23%. So, despite how it may feel at times, our defense has been better than our rivals at doing what it's supposed to: making outs.
However, it is also important to note that our figure is a significant drop on the +1.19% which we had last season - good enough for fifth overall. That does tie with what we've seen this year: a disappointing regression with the glove by many players, despite then being a year more experienced and at the age where they should not yet be expected to be slowing down. It's difficult to break down the source of the drop, but I do note Mark Reynolds has gone from -6 Fielding Runs Above Average last season, down to -11 this year. The replacement of Carlos Quentin (-1) with Justin Upton (-7) in right, is likely also a contributory factor.
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9th in the majors?
I knew our defense wasn’t nearly as bad as some seem to think, but that’s actually pretty decent.
Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers: Filling the dubious shoes left open by Barry Bonds and the Giants.
by DbacksSkins on
Aug 20, 2008 8:23 PM EDT
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Just think.
If we pulled Conor Jackson out of those numbers, we’d probably be 1st. Or 0th. That’s how good we’d be.
by Azreous on
Aug 21, 2008 1:04 AM EDT
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Unfortunately for that theory
Jackson is rated at five Fielding Runs Above Average this year…
by Jim McLennan on
Aug 21, 2008 2:12 AM EDT
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I think
foulpole’s head just exploded.
Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers: Filling the dubious shoes left open by Barry Bonds and the Giants.
by DbacksSkins on
Aug 21, 2008 2:38 AM EDT
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Really interesting stuff Jim. Thanks.
"There are only two seasons: winter and baseball"
-- Bill Veeck
by njjohn on
Aug 20, 2008 8:42 PM EDT
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Hey Jim...
Facetious CoJack stuff aside, does that article break down PADE performances by month? It seems like the defense has been much better over the past month and a half or so, and I was curious if the numbers backed that notion up.
by Azreous on
Aug 21, 2008 12:18 PM EDT
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Well, for one thing,
we only had 9 home games in June, and you’d expect the team to play much better defense with a field they’re used to. Case in point: those damned games in Minnesota.
Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers: Filling the dubious shoes left open by Barry Bonds and the Giants.
by DbacksSkins on
Aug 21, 2008 12:43 PM EDT
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Outfield good, infield bad
The team’s OF RZR is .923, vs lg avg .905
The team’s IF RZR is .761 vs. lg avg .786
We can see this RZR further fortified by Fielding Bible numbers
Primary starter and primary backup, by most innings
1b: Jackson 571 Inn -6 (24th) Tracy 393 In, -1 (14th)
2b: Hudson 855 In -5 (22nd) Ojeda 134 In +2
3b: Reynolds 1007 Inn -6 (19th) Ojeda 77 In +3
SS: Drew 1000 Inn +1 (15th) Ojeda 105 In +4
LF: Jackson 411 Inn +6 (11th) Byrnes 420 Inn -2 (18th)
CF: Young 1092 Inn +16 (3rd)
RF: Upton 696 Inn +4 (13th) Romero 208 In +3, DUNN 57 In, -2
Augie really has done a good job backing up at 2b, 3b, SS. He’s as good as we think he is with the glove
Honorable Mention: Chris Burke has played everywhere. He can’t hit, but he hasn’t hurt with the glove anywhere he’s played, and on the whole, has made many more good plays than bad it seems.
1b 63 In -1
2b 81 In +3
3b 20 In -1
SS 14 In -0
Lf 114 In +3
Rf 63 In -1
Chris Young at +16 is a standout, and is having a gold glove caliber season in the field so far.
Oh…for the curious, Dunn was -12 in 924 Inn in LF, and ranks 27th. (only 9 inn in LF for AZ so far)
by shoewizard on
Aug 21, 2008 1:48 PM EDT
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One point to add
Which I put in the DBBP thread too.
Please note…the numbers move. They are not static. Just like batting average, the smaller the sample size, the quicker they can move in one direction or the other. And just like batting avg, it’s entirely possible for a fielder to have numbers that are much better or much worse than their “true ability”. That doesn’t invalidate the metric at all. The metric is measuring plays made. Thats all. Whether or not that is in indication of the fielders ability needs to be taken into the context of a larger sample size than one season, and in conjunction with other factors, such as environment, health, etc etc
I don’t feel that Conor Jackson is a better defensive left fielder than Byrnes when both are healthy. A healthy Byrnes is a better defender than Jackson, maddeningly stupid flips notwithstanding. But the FACT is that THIS year, Jackson has made a higher percentage of plays. We know why. Byrnes was hurt. The reason in this case is easy to identify. Sometimes it is, sometimes it isn’t.
Likewise…..Hudson’s ability is better than his numbers this year, but he was troubled by Hamstring, Groin, and ankle injuries all year. To my eye, he was a half step slower than normal for large parts of the season, and wasn’t getting to balls he seemed to get to in the past. He still made some great plays, but overall, he made fewer plays this year than last year. Thats just the way it added up. I believe it was the leg issues that caused it.
by shoewizard on
Aug 21, 2008 2:01 PM EDT
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Beat you to it. :-)
I noticed your interesting post at DBBP and copied a good chunk of those numbers here, along with another stat trom the Baseball Analysts. In most cases, they did correlate, but Jackson was hurt at LF by not making as many OOZ plays as he should.
by Jim McLennan on
Aug 21, 2008 3:53 PM EDT
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Oops
Just realized, those are updated figures, with a couple of weeks worth more data. So thanks for that!
by Jim McLennan on
Aug 21, 2008 3:56 PM EDT
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Thats OK
Somehow I missed the other post, never saw it.
Good stuff.
Here is the comment on the Bill James Online site in the Fielding Bible Section. I’ll post this in the other thread as well
A player’s more sophisticated fielding profile, as presented in John Dewan’s The Fielding Bible. It includes Plus/Minus, which represents the number of plays the player made, above/below the number that the average fielder would make, according to the video scouts at Baseball Info Solutions. We rate corner infielders for their handling of bunts, and middle infielders for their work on the double play. We rate outfielders for how often they threw out baserunners ("Kills") and how often they allowed them to take the extra base. "Rank" shows the player’s ranking in a particular category among qualifying players at his position (usually around 30). Pitchers and catchers are not included. We show data broken out separately by position, and listed yearly for the past three years.
by shoewizard on
Aug 21, 2008 9:09 PM EDT
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