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Diamondbacks 0, Astros 3: "Lead? Hardly!" -- Oswalt

Record: 64-60. Pace: 84-78. Change on last season: -7

Just our luck to meet Roy Oswalt on the day he decides to revert back to being among the most dominant pitchers of the past five years; today was his 80th win since the start of 2004, which ties him with Johan Santana [Webb, in case you're wondering, is fourth on 73, three back of Carlos Zambrano]. He one-hit the Diamondbacks over eight thoroughly dominant innings, and while he could likely have completed the shutout himself, then gave way to former Arizona closer, Jose Valverde, whom came in for the ninth and got the save.

I can't really complain about this one: it was one of those days where you simply meet an irresistible force - it's not as if we can expect to score eleven or twelve runs every game. All the offensive outpouring that we had on Friday and Saturday seemed a very long way ago, with Oswalt painting the corners like Rembrandt, flummoxing the Diamondbacks with everything from low-90's heat, to mid-60's curveballs. He faced just one batter over the minimum, and averaged four balls per inning out of the strike-zone. Looking at him today, you had to wonder how the hell this was only his eleventh win in 24 starts.

Only Stephen Drew and Chris Snyder reached base all afternoon. Snyder was the first base-runner, walking to lead off the third inning. Johnson sacrificed him to second with one out, and Drew [who'd walked to lead off the game, before being lined off first by Tracy] then squeezed a single through the infield. Chip Hale enthusiastically waved Snyder around third, despite the shallowness of the ball and a bad jump off second. Even a crap throw from Pence, which sailed some way up the line, proved more than good enough to get Snyder gunned down at the plate, with relative ease. I've lost count of how many outs we've made on the base-paths this year, and how many runners have been gunned down at home, courtesy of Hale and the much-vaunted "aggressive base-running."

Mark Grace was going on afterwards, about how it was a good decision. Er, no. In a tied game, perhaps - but we were already three runs behind at that point, and base-runners were clearly a precious commodity. Sending the slowest runner on the roster home was a suicidal move: even in the best possible scenario, if he'd made it, we'd still only have had the tying run at the plate - exactly the same as if Snyder had been held at third. Instead of having the red-hot Chris Young up [10-for-23 with eight RBI in the past week], representing that tying run, the rally was snuffed out and AZ was still three down. The next seventeen Diamondbacks' hitters were retired in order, and the only other time we got a runner into scoring position was on fielders' indifference in the ninth, after Drew singled off Valverde.

Randy Johnson pitched well, outside of one mistake to Wigginton, who promptly took advantage of that, along with the short distance to the left-field bleachers. Unfortunately, there were two men on base at that point, courtesy of the Big Unit's only free pass of the afternoon, and a seeing-eye squib from Tejada, that made it through the left side of the infield. It soon became clear that those three runs were going to prove monumentally tough for the visitors to pull back. Even though Johnson righted the ship and posted six zeroes after that, win #295 eluded him - he now needs to get the victory in five of seven remaining starts if he's going to make it to three hundred this season. He scattered eight hits and that solitary walk over seven innings, striking out five. Qualls pitched a scoreless eighth.

280817118_diamondbacks_astros_104116105_live_medium
[Click to enlarge, in new window]
Master of his domain: Chris Snyder, +1.7%
God-emperor of suck: Chris Young, -9.3%

Not much positive to come out of the Fangraph today, as you can tell from the huge plus value posted by Snyder - Qualls and Drew, at +0.7% each, were the only other Diamondbacks to reach anything above zero. Young just pipped Johnson (-9.2%) for the title at the other end of the scale. The first inning deficit pretty much took all the steam out of the Gameday Thread too, with it struggling to pass two hundred, as just about everyone found better things to do. Present were Azreous, soco, britdback, hotclaws, Wimb, kishi, srdmad, snakecharmer, TwinnerA, 4 Corners Fan, foulpole, njjohn, emilylovesthedbacks, Diamondhacks and AZWILDCATS.

All told, a 4-2 road trip is not bad, but the Dodgers have kept right in step with us - they managed to stave off a furious, four-run, ninth-inning comeback by the Brewers, so we are back to being tied with them ONCE again. After the off-day on Monday, the Diamondbacks now head back home to face San Diego for three games at Chase, and then the Marlins come to town over the weekend. Los Angeles hit the road, also after an off-day Monday, to take on the Rockies and the Phillies. While it'd be nice for these teams to give Arizona some help, the most important thing is for the Diamondbacks to keep winning their own games. Do that, and we'll be fine.

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No offense

but the sending Snyder home moment really wasn’t that big. Could more have happened during the inning? Perhaps, but not very likely considering how Oswalt was pitching. I’d understand more being angry if it had decided the game, but being down 3-0 and never getting close, it’s a little amusing to get worked up about it.

Yub, yub!

by soco on Aug 17, 2008 10:57 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

With the benefit of hindsight

Sure, it wasn’t that important. But I’m extremely fed up of seeing us run ourselves out of innings in the name of “aggression”. His run meant nothing, even at that stage, so why take what was always going to be a horrendous risk, given his lack of speed?

by Jim McLennan on Aug 17, 2008 11:25 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

"Run meant nothing"

Ok, Dodger fan coming in peace. I don’t understand what you mean “his run meant nothing”. Of course it meant something. What if Chris Young had gotten out to end the inning, and then you guys had scored two runs in say, the 7th? Then the run could have been the difference between a tie and being down by one. Unless its the 9th inning, every run matters, because you simply don’t know how much you’re going to score later. Now I agree it was a bad send just because it wasn’t even close with a halfway decent throw, but I think if you feel the runner can score 2/3 of the time, you should send him there. The question is, why would the 3rd base coach feel Snyder could score most of the time in that situation?

by Brendan Scolari on Aug 18, 2008 12:44 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think

he meant that the run by itself meant nothing. We’ve seen a lot of outs at home (and at third base, arrrrgggh!) this season. And most of them came on plays that were very similar to the ones we saw tonight. The D-Backs seem to pride themselves on their aggressive baserunning, but the outs at home are getting very frustrating.

"We...probed them all the way through. They're completely meat." — Terry Bisson

by Scrbl on Aug 18, 2008 1:54 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You can't manage

In the expectation of ‘maybe’ scoring runs down the road. You have to manage based on the situation at the time – and that’s why I said the run meant nothing, because at that point, it was only the difference between a three-run loss and a two-run one. We’d still have had the tying run at the plate, in the shape of the hottest hitter on the team, whether the runner had scored or not. But by getting Snyder thrown out, it reduced the run expectancy for the inning to zero.

by Jim McLennan on Aug 18, 2008 2:28 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not to nitpick

but I just disagree with your premise. You don’t know the outcome of the game in the third inning so you don’t know if that run is important or not. The odds of a guy with a less than .300 OBP reaching against a dominant Oswalt are very low, even if he is hot. If the runner has a decent chance to score (which I don’t think he did on the play, but hypothetically) you should send him.

And I would think you always have to consider the odds of scoring runs down the road. Otherwise you end up bunting in first inning to get the “go-ahead run”, without considering the fact the other team is likely to score 4-5 runs over the course of the game.

by Brendan Scolari on Aug 18, 2008 5:15 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And there's the rub...
Otherwise you end up bunting in first inning to get the "go-ahead run", without considering the fact the other team is likely to score 4-5 runs over the course of the game.

Welcome to the wonderful world of Melvin Management 1.0.1… That particular tactic would be something with which we are familiar, more than once, this year, against such overwhelming pitchers as Tom Gorzelanny. ;-(

I guess that’s where managerial tactics do come into play. But I knew, as soon as I saw Snyder going round third, that this was not a good decision.

by Jim McLennan on Aug 18, 2008 11:20 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

" Pace: 84-80"

They added two games to the schedule ? ;)

by shoewizard on Aug 18, 2008 1:03 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That includes the two playoff games

One against the Dodgers to decide the division and the other to…the other, er…

Dammit, corrected. :-)

by Jim McLennan on Aug 18, 2008 1:32 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm moderately relieved

that the winning streak wasn’t entirely powered by my calculus review. I don’t think I could have taken much more. On the other hand, it sounds like it was a miserable game with a disappointing outcome. Let’s get’em after the day off D-Backs!

"We...probed them all the way through. They're completely meat." — Terry Bisson

by Scrbl on Aug 18, 2008 1:55 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Agreed

I fancy us to win this off day ;)

So...time for another drink then?

by Wimb on Aug 18, 2008 10:45 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

So....

does yesterday’s performance mean that I am no longer allowed to ever miss a GDT?

Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers: Filling the dubious shoes left open by Barry Bonds and the Giants.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 18, 2008 2:08 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That,

or we should ship you out to Elba effective immediately. I haven’t decided yet.

by emilylovesthedbacks on Aug 18, 2008 2:25 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

There's

always that….

Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers: Filling the dubious shoes left open by Barry Bonds and the Giants.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 18, 2008 2:40 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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