Pitching rotation the rest of the way

by Jim McLennan on Aug 17, 2008 1:53 PM EDT Comment 13 comments

Since it looks official that we'll be aiming to use our front starters as much as possible down the stretch, with Petit being skipped whenever necessary, I thought we should take a look at the anticipated match-ups for the series until the end of the season. This is, obviously, provisional, and any corrections or amendments are welcome.

August 18, Off-day
August 19-21, vs Padres: Davis, Haren, Webb
August 22-24, vs Marlins: Johnson, Petit, Davis [Petit is SnakePitFest!]
August 25-27, @ Padres: Haren, Webb, Johnson
August 28, Off-day
August 29-31, vs Dodgers: Davis, Haren, Webb
September 1-3, vs. Cardinals: Johnson, Petit, Davis
September 4: Off-day
September 5-7, @ Dodgers: Haren, Webb, Johnson

Up to this point, it seems fairly locked in. Beyond this, it gets a bit more speculative. In the next series, for example, they could insert Petit at any point if necessary. But my best guess would be.
September 8-10, @ Giants: Davis, Petit, Haren
September 11: Off-day
September 12-14, vs. Cincinnati: Webb, Johnson, Davis
September 15-18, vs. Giants: Petit, Haren, Webb, Johnson
September 19-21, @ Rockies: Davis, Petit, Haren
September 22-25, @ Cardinals: Webb, Johnson, Davis, Petit
September 26-28, Rockies: Haren, Webb, Johnson

The divisional playoffs begin October 1, so this would also set up Haren to pitch Game 1, and Webb Game 2. Of course, if we've clinched a post-season spot earlier, than any or all of the final series could see us resting our starters.

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Looks good

I just wish there was a way to have either Haren or Webb in every series and we don’t have either Haren or Webby in the Marlins and 1st of 2 remaining Cardinal series.

by TwinnerA on Aug 17, 2008 2:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

What obviously jumps out are the two series against the Dodgers. Love seeing how both of those send the Webb-Haren duo to the hill. Interesting to note that in this breakdown Johnson gets the ball for the final start of the season. By my count it would be his eighth start left (with six to go until 300). 300 seems near impossible, but were Johnson somehow able to pull it off (hey, if he keeps posting an ERA in the mid 1s, it might be hard NOT to win 6 of the 8) and set himself up for the 300th win on the last day of the season that would be something.

To dive into even more meaningless speculation, it would be interesting to see what Melvin would do if the final game of the season didn’t matter in terms of the standings but RJ stood at 299 wins. I suppose he’d let the big fellow decide.

With how good RJ is going I’m almost nervous to have him get to 300. I’d hate to have him hang up his cleats with more games in that left arm just because he hit the mark.

"There are only two seasons: winter and baseball"
-- Bill Veeck

by njjohn on Aug 17, 2008 2:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Where does Max Scherzer fit into this scheme? I read some places that they are stretching him out in AAA to start when rosters expand… would he just slot in for Petit?

Any insight as to if, when, how often and to what effect Max will have on September ’08 D-Backs rotation is appreciated.

by SaltyF on Aug 18, 2008 10:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Fantasy question?

Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers: Filling the dubious shoes left open by Barry Bonds and the Giants.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 18, 2008 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

does it make it a less valid question?

i mean i am not a diamondbacks fan… but I definitely prefer them to the rest of the nl west if that means anythign :)

myself, i bleed blue and orange.

anyhow, thanks for scherzer updates.

by SaltyF on Aug 18, 2008 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No, not at all. It's still valid.

It just came off as a fantasy question from the way you said it, that’s all. Welcome to the ’Pit!!

I would say that they’re most likely to save Scherzer’s service time by stashing him in AAA ‘til September, then making him a long reliever. If Doug Davis continues to struggle, however, and the NL West race stays tight, we’ll probably see Davis and Scherzer switch places.

Manny Ramirez and the Dodgers: Filling the dubious shoes left open by Barry Bonds and the Giants.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 18, 2008 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Very interesting

I could see Max being very useful to your pen, but I’d have to think he would have the most value throwing as many innings as possible in a starters role. But again, I don’t know the inner workings of the dback organization.

In the end, I guess trying to figure out where to put a talent like Max is a good problem to have.

by SaltyF on Aug 18, 2008 2:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

There has been discussion

For some time over whether Scherzer has the necessary range of pitches to be an effective starter. We saw this an issue with Micah Owings, who ended up yanked from the rotation – and, apparently, traded – largely because he didn’t have a reliable third pitch. Of course, we’d rather have him as a starter: but if the choice is between mediocre starter and top-quality reliever, it gets more interesting…

by Jim McLennan on Aug 18, 2008 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

If DD doesn't look better tomorrow...

I would hope they consider Max for his spot. Petit has pitched well enough to have earned a stay for now.

by G Dub on Aug 18, 2008 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I see Scherzer as filling a long-reliever role when he is called up. Petit has certainly earned his spot in the rotation and I don’t think that BoMel would bump DD.

"There are only two seasons: winter and baseball"
-- Bill Veeck

by njjohn on Aug 18, 2008 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Petit has earned

his spot for now, but it was only a few weeks ago that Davis was extremely reliable. Unfortunately it’s become a game of “which number 4 and 5 starter are we going to get this week?”

Yub, yub!

by soco on Aug 18, 2008 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Scherzer

Is the wild-card. I think how they use him may well depend on how the division race is going. While he probably will be a September call-up, I suspect they perhaps won’t use him as a starter, unless they have to – if the Dodgers start building a lead, and we need to win every game in the last few weeks. As noted, who he replaces may depend on performance and match-up.

by Jim McLennan on Aug 18, 2008 12:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Scherzer's use

The one thing you can definitely eliminate is Max being used in any kind of short relief role. They have determined that his arm just did not recover quickly enough to be used in such a role.

So that leaves either starting…..or long relief every 4-5 days or so.

Like you said, it depends on the performance of the other starters. Does Randy’s back hold up all year ? Can Davis turn things around for real, against a good lineup ? Can Petit maintain his (surprising to me) effectiveness ? All of these things will impact how and if Scherzer is used.

And of course, the questions about Max himself. Besides monitoring his health as he continues to get stretched out, these are the questions:

Is he throwing his slider & Changeup for strikes ?
Is he throwing them at all…first time up in the majors he threw 75% fastballs
Is he getting ahead of hitters ? Or does he have command issues with his secondary pitches, forcing him to come in with fastballs behind in the count frequently ?

So we’ll see. I don’t see service clock as a factor in any way determining when he comes up though.

by shoewizard on Aug 21, 2008 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs