Diamondbacks 3, Padres 2 - #289, at last
Record: 44-45. Pace: 80-82. Change on last season: -3.
It wasn't pretty. We had to struggle and claw our way to a massive three runs, while another botched play by the defense almost cost us the game. But, the franchise's longest ever streak in sole possession of first-place rolls on - at least for another day. We don't play tomorrow, but the Dodgers do: it would be ironic if they won, and ended the streak that way. It's probably too early to describe games as "must win" before the All-Star break, but this was certainly a "really, really like to win, pretty please with sugar on top" game. Being swept by our division rival at home, and losing first-place as a result, would have been a painful blow.
Let's start at the end, shall we? Lyon came in to cling to a two-run lead in the ninth, but things started poorly with a leadoff single by the Padres. They immediately got a great deal worse: Kouzmanoff hit a line-drive to right, which caromed off the glove of a diving Upton for a double. Then, Upton's throw back to the infield glanced off Hudson's glove, and then again off the desperate grab of Tracy, who was backing up - one run trotted home, and the tying run now stood at third-base, still with nobody out. First-place; it was nice to have known you. Maybe we'll meet again sometime down the road?
Hah! Brandon Lyon is made of sterner stuff than that. Chase Headley, the dugout will see you now - he went down swinging. Khalil Greene: why don't you ground out to the drawn-in infield? Thank you for your co-operation. Brian Giles: oh, same again will be fine. Game over, Lyon gets his sixteenth save, and the mere +7.8% he gets on the Win Probability doesn't quite reflect the roller-coast nature of that ninth inning:
| B Lyon | 92.2% | ||
| B Lyon | A Gonzalez | Single | 84.6% |
| B Lyon | K Kouzmanoff | Double | 63.5% |
| B Lyon | Error | 53.1% | |
| B Lyon | C Headley | Strikeout | 67.7% |
| B Lyon | K Greene | Ground Out | 87.1% |
| B Lyon | B Giles | Ground Out | 100.0% |
The effective work done by Lyon Salvage Incorporated finally got the loss monkey off the Big Unit's back, breaking a streak of six straight losses and giving him his first victory since May 18. It didn't look like that would be the case after the first batter he faced, as Diamondbacks' nemesis Scott Hairston cranked his third homer of the series into the bleachers, giving Arizona an early hole from which they, inevitably, struggled to escape. Four straight zeroes were posted by Banks: add on the seven by Peavy, six from Baek, six by Parra in the Matinee Miracle, and a couple from McClung at the end of his stint, and it meant we hadn't scored a single run off the opposition starter for twenty-five innings, over parts of five games.
But when that streak ended...hoo-boy, it ended. Justin Upton merely uncorked what is being called the longest home-run in the majors this year, utterly crushing a ball into Friday's Front Row. And not the bottom row either, but the top tier: a couple of feet to the left, and it would have been pinging around the inside of the restaurant like a psychotic pinball. The estimate from the club was 484 feet, but we'll wait from a neutral estimate out of HitTracker.com before anointing it officially: "I just caught it perfect and it took off a little bit," said Upton, in what appears to be his entry for Understatement of the Year.
Hammock was next up, and a shaken Banks hit him - I think Upton's blast broke the Banks, as it were. Johnson bunted him over, and with two outs, Drew gave the Diamondbacks the lead, with a single to right-center. Mark Reynolds added a crucial insurance run with his eighteenth homer off the batters' eye in center during the sixth inning. Justin Upton could probably be heard sniggering in the dugout, for Special K's shot was "only" estimated at 424 foot. "Hey, it still counts exactly the same as yours," would be Reynolds' appropriate reminder. Two hits for Tracy and two for Upton, but the K:BB ratio remained weak, at 1:6, leaving the final tally for this series four walks and twenty-four strikeouts.
Mind you, the Padres were a good deal worse than us, fanning fourteen times without taking a walk. Ten of those came courtesy of Johnson who, after and outside of the homer to Hairston had one of his best outings in a long time; he allowed only three hits and retired 19 of 23 batters faced, with the other one getting plunked. He was pulled after a leadoff double in the seventh was followed by a ground-out that advanced the runner. Hearts collectively sunk as Chad Qualls came to the mound, who has rarely met an inherited runner of late that hasn't crossed home-plate as a result. However, he belied that rep with back-to-back strikeouts, and Peña also pitched out of difficulty in the eighth, after letting the first two Padres reach base. Over those final three innings alone, San Diego were 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position.

[Click to enlarge in new window]
Master of his domain: Randy Johnson, +18.6%
Honorable mentions: Upton, 13.1%; Qualls, +12.2%
God-emperor of suck: Conor Jackson, -12.0%
This one ended up over 600, which is pretty monstrous for a single thread. Thanks to soco, unnamedDBacksfan, DbacksSkins, snakecharmer, Snakebitten, DiamondbacksWIn, kishi, hotclaws, Muu, mrssoco, Zephon, luckycc, emilylovesthedbacks, golfmanthee, Counsellmember, dahlian, 4 Corners Fan, srdmad, Geno Ardi [welcome!] and SongBird for their comments - no thanks to the now-banned RAMJB and ben_grdn, who are both the same person, but still outstayed their welcome.
Congratulations to Dan Haren and Brandon Webb, both very deserving selections to represent the Diamondbacks at this year's All-Star Game in New York. It's not clear at the moment whether Webb will be able to play: he's scheduled to throw on the side that day, so he might be able to get an inning off, even as he starts the last day before and the first day atter the break. Tuesday would be Haren's regularly-scheduled day to pitch, so I imagine he'll be good to go: I doubt he'll get the call to start. I suspect that ERA leader Volquez, who picked up his eleventh win tonight, might get the nod, schedule permitting. See the attached poll for who was the Diamondbacks first-half All-Star, outside of these two.
Off-day tomorrow, and I've got one too - woo-hoo, four-day weekend! Arizona will be heading towards Washington, for their series there. They might be joined in first by the Dodgers, as they will be playing the Braves tomorrow - and must be salivating at the prospect, since the Atlanta bullpen had to work for eleven innings tonight, finally getting past the Astros in seventeen. Go, Braves... More to follow on Monday, including our old favorite, the Random Off-Day Thread.
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Hittracker
is calling Upton’s shot 471 ft and Reynolds’ 427. . . .
by golfmanthee on Jul 7, 2008 12:37 AM EDT 0 recs
Not seeing Upton's
As having a distance; here is its page?
by Jim McLennan on
Jul 7, 2008 2:16 AM EDT
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Richie Sexson's blast
wasn’t according to hittracker:
“Richie Sexson, Bank One Ballpark, April 26, 2004”
On April 26, 2004, Richie Sexson made a mark for himself in the history of Chase Field (then Bank One Ballpark) – well, actually he made a mark ON the park, specifically the video board in center field. Sexson blasted a ball to deep center field that was reported to have traveled 503 feet, but Hit Tracker analysis supports a slightly lesser distance for this monumental blast. Sexson’s homer struck the video board at a spot 414 feet from home plate, 75 feet above field level, with a time of flight of 4.94 seconds. The reconstructed trajectory shown here reveals that the ball left the bat at 119.0 mph at an angle of 36.9 degrees, and would have traveled 469 feet if it had been allowed to return to field level unobstructed.
_____________
I’m not sure I’m buying that… but in another 15 years, the story will get to be that the home run would have landed on Jefferson if the outside wall wasn’t there.
"It's like deja vu all over again."
by unnamedDBacksfan on
Jul 7, 2008 3:21 AM EDT
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I buy that.
Sexson’s blast was damned impressive because of the arc it took and where it hit, but it had more vertical movement to it than Upton’s. The speed numbers between the two of them are extremely comparable with Sexson’s being 119 MPH and Option J.’s being 119.5.
by dahlian on
Jul 7, 2008 3:41 AM EDT
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Hmmmmm. . . .
It was there last night when I posted and now I don’t see it at all nor do I see Reynolds’ (which was there also)
I don’t claim this site as any sort of official authority on HR distance (there is, of course, no such “official” ruling body) but is a website that I have come across before and find it fun and interesting.
BTW, I agree on Upton’s blast – the distance rings put it 475’ and 80’ up. . . . .
by golfmanthee on
Jul 7, 2008 10:50 AM EDT
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They're calling Mark's
438 feet true distance.
Mark Reynolds: Turning me gay since '07
by DbacksSkins on
Jul 7, 2008 10:41 AM EDT
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So much for
Connor’s annointing as “everyday” 1st Base Guy.
by nargel on Jul 7, 2008 1:03 AM EDT 0 recs
Would you prefer
that Eric Byrnes be our “everyday” LF?
Mark Reynolds: Turning me gay since '07
by DbacksSkins on
Jul 7, 2008 12:13 PM EDT
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No more RAMJB
Woooooooooo!
Words of advice for future passive-aggressive trolls: if you’re going to show up in game threads and post incessantly, at least make an effort to follow the current game and participate in that conversation. Showing up only when your team is a big flag, but even if RAMJB had been a smug Nationals fan I still would have hoped for ban button invocation because of his negligible post content and fruit fly-like attention span.
And for the love of all that is holy, use the subject box!!!
by dahlian on Jul 7, 2008 3:09 AM EDT 0 recs
'Uptown' Upton
“The estimate from the club was 484 feet, but we’ll wait from a neutral estimate out of HitTracker.com before anointing it officially”
I think their estimate is low. Using the seating diagram of Chase Field from their website, and if you scale the distance from the plate to ‘Front Row’ level three using a digital calipers, and using the 412 foot left center fence corner as a reference, it calculates to about 502 feet. The diagram is taken from an actual stadium layout drawing, so is probably dimensionally accurate. Figuring in the height (~ 50 feet?), and that the apex of the trajectory was somewhat above the jalapeno dish it landed in, the ball would have cleared a 10 foot fence at well over 500 feet.
Rather than guess, a surveyor could measure the distance to the table to within a few inches with a transit. To see other purported distance records go here:
http://www.baseball-almanac.com/feats/art_hr.shtml
Looking at Justin’s swing, it’s nice and level with little hand turn, which helps distance. Maybe that little ‘hitting disk’ really works! Unfortunately, going for the long ball produces a lot of strike outs (just ask Matt Williams) ;-)
I would say Justin’s May slump is over, but he should work at limiting those ‘long ball swings’, and maybe find himself getting walked on base more.
That said, IMO he has excellent bat control. Reminds me a little of Ted Williams style of hitting.
by Geno Ardi on Jul 7, 2008 6:16 AM EDT 0 recs
Nice input
The Upton home-run page linked above has a chart, where you can see the range rings. It looks like your height estimate of 50 feet looks about right, but the horizontal distance seems around 450 ft, looking at that chart. [I’m thinking the seating diagram is perhaps not entirely to scale, with the playing field shrunk, since it isn’t the focus of that diagram.
The 480 foot figure makes it not quite the longest homer of the year, as Brad Hawpe hit one for 482 feet – which may explain the addition of four feet by the D-backs! The Hawpe homer was at Coors, however: I note, with some amusement, that it merit only the slimmest of mentions in the AP recap! However, the ‘standard’ – adjusted to sea level, etc. – distance was only 414 feet, compared to 466 feet for Upton’s.
by Jim McLennan on
Jul 7, 2008 1:21 PM EDT
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It might
be getting the slimmest of mentions because that’s a recap of the 15-8 Rox-Pads game, when the Rox lost…..
Mark Reynolds: Turning me gay since '07
by DbacksSkins on
Jul 7, 2008 1:40 PM EDT
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Poll Question
I think, besides Haren and Webbie, the first half MVP has to be O-Dawg. True, Conor Jackson is having a career year, and I’m a big CoJack fan, but Hudson’s great mix of offense and defense should earn him this honor. While Jackson is a better hitter, (23 batting runs above replacement for him, and 20 for Hudson), Hudson’s OPS is just 1 point lower than Jackson’s. The biggest difference between the two, though, comes out in the field. Hudson not only plays a harder position than Jackson, but also is one of the best fielding second basemen in the MLB. Baseball Prospectus estimates Hudson has contributed 23 fielding runs, while CoJack has just added 6. This is a huge difference and totally overshadows the hitting, as Hudson is clearly our best first-half non-pitcher.
by LucaMaz3 on Jul 7, 2008 10:59 AM EDT 0 recs
Hmm
Hudson is the 3rd worst qualifying second baseman in RZR so far this year. His 7 fielding errors is 3rd most amongst qualifying second basemen. His lone bright spot would be OOZ plays, while 20 is one of the higher numbers, I’m not sure if it really distinguishes him amongst his position. At this point in his career, I’m more of the opinion that he’s overrated defensively. From personal observation, I think it’s because he tries harder on the hard plays and takes the easy ones off… resulting in mistakes.
I assume you’re looking at RAR2 for the “23 fielding runs”? I don’t pay Baseball Prospectus for anything so I’m wondering, if you do, do they have a leaderboard for that? I’m also not sure what they use to calculate that statistic, but I found this interesting from their glossary: “Average players at different positions have different FRAR values, which depend on the defensive value of the position; an average shortstop has more FRAR than an average left fielder.”
Fire Bob Melvin. Free Jamie D'Antona. Eric Byrnes Sucks.
by nihil67 on
Jul 7, 2008 11:29 AM EDT
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I was gonna say.........
O-Dawg has been worth a lot more for his offense than his defense lately…. middle infielders typically contribute more defensively.
Mark Reynolds: Turning me gay since '07
by DbacksSkins on
Jul 7, 2008 12:21 PM EDT
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Hittracker
has now apparently settled on 480 ft for Upton’s homer
by golfmanthee on Jul 7, 2008 12:42 PM EDT 0 recs
BTW
Upton now leads the “Golden Sledgehammer” list for longest average distance for his HRs
by golfmanthee on
Jul 7, 2008 12:43 PM EDT
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That's because
Upton is a beast.
Mark Reynolds: Turning me gay since '07
by DbacksSkins on
Jul 7, 2008 1:33 PM EDT
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Hittracker apparently also decided Mark’s home run yesterday was a “Just Enough.” It looked like it was more than 10 feet over the line to me…
"Evil lurks everywhere, often in plain sight... Can you lurk in plain sight? Or is that just walking?"
by kishi on
Jul 7, 2008 2:26 PM EDT
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Wow...... seriously??
Well, they just lost all my respect…
Mark Reynolds: Turning me gay since '07
by DbacksSkins on
Jul 7, 2008 3:02 PM EDT
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I vote CoJack
For the fact that he’s our offensive leader right now, and he’s also made a pretty big decision for the team to move to a position he doesn’t play, in order to try to help boost our lineup. I think that deserves some credit.
"Evil lurks everywhere, often in plain sight... Can you lurk in plain sight? Or is that just walking?"
by kishi on Jul 7, 2008 2:22 PM EDT 0 recs
Yeah, but...
His defense costs him at least 12,000 points of OPS. Can a player with negative OPS be an all-star?
by Azreous on
Jul 7, 2008 2:44 PM EDT
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Yeah, those 4 errors are pretty costly. If only he had 9 errors, like O-Dawg.
Waaaaaaait…
"Evil lurks everywhere, often in plain sight... Can you lurk in plain sight? Or is that just walking?"
by kishi on
Jul 7, 2008 2:53 PM EDT
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