2009 HOF BALLOT

by thetomcat87 on Jul 28, 2008 2:06 PM EDT

Hey guys, I've been reading this blog for a short time now and decided to make my first post.

Now that Goose Gossage got inducted to the Hall of Fame, it is time to start thinking of the 2009 class. On that ballot we may see 3 players who played for the Diamondbacks at the end of their careers and all made a contribution to the 2001 World Series win. It is highly, highly, highly doubtful that any of the 3 get inducted as a DBack, but any of them would be the first to get in after playing for the DBacks (although Todd Stottlemyer and Devon White have been on the ballot). So the question is: Which of the 3 players will be a first ballot Hall of Famer: Mark Grace, Matt Williams, Jay Bell.

It is no doubt Gracie will get in first try, but I doubt the other 2 will. Both had solid careers, but they are not first balot Hall of Famers. Williams is much more likely to eventually get in than Bell, but it will take a weak class in the future for Williams to make it.

Your thoughts?

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Comments

I wonder if Randy Johnson will go in as a Dback?

Hello, My name is Indigo Montoya. You killed my father. Prepare to die.

by utahdbacksfan on Jul 28, 2008 2:50 PM EDT 0 recs

Oh yeah, he will. No doubt at all.

by snakecharmer on Jul 28, 2008 3:04 PM EDT up 0 recs

Didn't his contract

with the Yankees stipulate that after he retired, the Yanks had to buy him Dbacks season tickets?

Mark Reynolds: back to turning me gay.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 4, 2008 10:48 AM EDT up 0 recs

Absolutely

Four straight Cy Young Awards, a World Series ring, and a co-MVP award in the World Series is, I think, a huge selling point. He was with Seattle for quite a while, but his career really hit a high point with the Diamondbacks.

"Human beings, who are almost unique in having the ability to learn from the experience of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so."

by kishi on Jul 28, 2008 3:29 PM EDT up 0 recs

And a perfect game

If he can reach 300 wins with us too, that would crown it, but I just can’t see him going in as any other team.

by Jim McLennan on Jul 28, 2008 3:52 PM EDT up 0 recs

a more debatable question is...

...what Schilling will go in as.
My hunch is he’ll go in with a BoSox hat on because they unabashedly love him up there… but his accomplishments for the D-Backs were, IMHO, greater.

"There are only two seasons: winter and baseball"
-- Bill Veeck

by njjohn on Jul 28, 2008 11:57 PM EDT up 0 recs

He had some great accomplishments

at both places but spent four or less years at either location. I suppose in the end he’ll be a Red Sock if he make it in, but it’s too bad those 9 years of Phillies service will pass away.

Knock off the hippie crap, strap on a helmet, and start shooting. This is baseball, Diamondbacks, I want you to storm that beach like it's Normandy!

by soco on Jul 29, 2008 1:00 AM EDT up 0 recs

Bloody Sock and all that

Will mean he goes in as a Red Sox player, he is best known for his post season exploits and whilst he did it in 01 as a D-Back people remember 04 and 07 more.

So...time for another drink then?

by Wimb on Jul 29, 2008 8:27 AM EDT up 0 recs

Grace

I bet he will go in as a cub

by BleedingSedonaRed on Jul 28, 2008 3:31 PM EDT 0 recs

Oh I'm sure he will...

I’m also not entirely convinced he’s a “first-rounder”....

by snakecharmer on Jul 28, 2008 3:38 PM EDT up 0 recs

Agreed,

on both points. If Grace makes it in, it’ll be in a Cubs cap, but I’m not convinced he’ll be a first rounder.. or even make it in at all, actually….

Mark Reynolds: back to turning me gay.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 4, 2008 10:49 AM EDT up 0 recs

Gracie

is definitely a first ballot HOF-er… No one got more hits in the 90s than he did and if Ryne Sandberg got in, Grace is in (Grace was the better of the two during those Cub years)

by thetomcat87 on Jul 28, 2008 3:50 PM EDT 0 recs

Achievments in a decade mean nothing

Look how long it took Gossage to get it, Tim Raines hasn’t done it either, Don Mattingley is nowhere close

To me Grace is one of those players that might just sneak in towards the middle of his eligibility if people start respecting the ‘clean’ players of the steroid era, but otherwise I can’t see him getting in to be honest but then I’d love to be proved wrong

So...time for another drink then?

by Wimb on Jul 28, 2008 4:19 PM EDT up 0 recs

Most hits of the '90s

would only mean something if Grace led the league in hits for any other ten year period. As it stands, Grace was a good hitter that happened to have his peak during a time when most other hall of fame players were either beginning their career or ending it.

Career first basemen with a career OPS+ of 119 do not belong in the hall of fame. Just look at his contemporaries:

Player_ – OPS+ – hits – HR_ – RBI_ – Runs
Grace_ – 110_- 2445 – 173 – 1146 – 1179
Bagwell – 149 – 2314 – 449 – 1529 – 1517
Thome_ – 149 – 2006 – 526 – 1457 – 1293
Thomas – 157 – 2448 – 520 – 1701 – 1486
McGriff_ – 134 – 2490 – 493 – 1550 – 1349
Helton_ – 141 – 1957 – 310 – 1116 – 1143
Delgado- 138 – 1949 – 453 – 1441 – 1188

And that’s only the guys who did it “clean”. You could also toss McFwire and Palmeiro onto that list. Grace didn’t even have much in the way of hardware during his time. He only made the all star team three times in his career and in only four seasons did receive MVP votes (never finishing higher than 10th)

His entire candidacy seems to be based on the “most hits in the ‘90s” argument which is, quite frankly, asinine.

by dahlian on Jul 28, 2008 7:31 PM EDT up 0 recs

Do you think McGriff gets in?

I say yes, but it is going to be close. A much better debate than Grace, who I love to death but isn’t a HOFer.

Grace is only shot is to become a great manager, and build on a solid playing career (a la Joe Torre) . Then hope for the Veteran’s Committee.

by Augie's Army on Jul 28, 2008 7:47 PM EDT up 0 recs

I think he makes it

I agree that the “most hit during the 90s” argument is crap but I think he deserves it for his .303 lifetime average, his stellar defense and his clutch hitting (which is not just limited to his lead-off single to start the rally in Game 7). The fact is that Grace wasn’t a power hitter in a position often defined by power, but he was a critical component of the few Cubs teams that made the playoffs and the 2001 World Champions. He deserves to be a HOF not only for doing everything he did clean, but managing it with a 2 pack-a-day smoking habit.

by UofAZGrad on Jul 28, 2008 7:56 PM EDT up 0 recs

Will "doing it clean"

be the new rallying cry for players that just aren’t that good?

How do we even know that Grace did it “clean”. It’s not as if steroids are the sole domain of players that hit lots of home runs – just ask Neifi Perez. Grace also has been teammates with plenty of guys that are either known drug users (Matt Williams) or suspected users (Sosa, Gonzo). I just gave you a list of seven first basemen from that era (with no steroid suspicions) that were better baseball players than Grace – how many first basemen do you really think belong in the HOF from the ‘90s and early ‘00s?

by dahlian on Jul 28, 2008 8:10 PM EDT up 0 recs

Well

Of the six players up there compared to Grace, only two have lifetime averages above .300 – Thomas and Helton and there is no guarantee their averages will stay in that geographical region until they retire. I give a lot of credit to .303 and golden glove defense, even if it only came with 173 home runs.

by UofAZGrad on Jul 28, 2008 8:37 PM EDT up 0 recs

What use is a high average

if you don’t actually produce runs? Does Juan Pierre make your hall too?

by dahlian on Jul 29, 2008 1:19 AM EDT up 0 recs

Granted, it might also be tough to produce runs,

when you play for the Cubs.

Mark Reynolds: back to turning me gay.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 4, 2008 10:52 AM EDT up 0 recs

But even tougher

when your first baseman averaged 11 home runs a season.

by dahlian on Aug 5, 2008 2:18 AM EDT up 0 recs

"(Grace was the better of the two during those Cub years)"

Also, this is flat out wrong. Sandberg was a ten-time all-star, seven-time silver slugger and nine-time gold glover (Grace’s ranks in those categories – 3, 0, 4).

Sandberg had a career OPS+ only five points lower than Grace (114-119) despite the fact that he played the second-most difficult defensive position on the diamond. There’s really no comparison between Grace and Sandberg as players.

by dahlian on Jul 28, 2008 7:36 PM EDT up 0 recs

Since when

have being an All-Star or Gold Glover ever meant shit for the HOF? Since when have they ever meant shit anyway?

Mark Reynolds: back to turning me gay.

by DbacksSkins on Aug 4, 2008 10:54 AM EDT up 0 recs

Just to point out

that not only does Sandberg have better objective numbers than Grace, but he has better subjective, press and peer-awarded numbers than Grace as well.

Also, while all stars and gold glove tend to be inaccurate on a micro level, they oftentimes even out at a macro level. I generally feel safe assuming that a ten-time all star, seven-time silver slugger and nine-time gold glover at a premium defensive position is better than a first-baseman with a 119 OPS+.

by dahlian on Aug 5, 2008 2:17 AM EDT up 0 recs

Not only is he not a first ballot

He’s not getting in. Will Clark, Don Mattingly, Cecil Cooper, Keith Hernandez and Mark Grace. All good, but not great 1st basemen. None of them have or will be getting in. At least not by the writers.

Fire Bob Melvin

by nihil67 on Jul 28, 2008 8:00 PM EDT up 0 recs

Andres Galarraga

is another first baseman with similar career results to Grace. Of course, even he has more all stars, silver sluggers and MVP votes than Grace.

by dahlian on Jul 28, 2008 8:02 PM EDT up 0 recs

You can list a bunch of 90's first basemen

And Grace isn’t near the top of the list.

Fire Bob Melvin

by nihil67 on Jul 28, 2008 8:07 PM EDT up 0 recs

completely agree.

Grace should not get in. If he does, it will only be Cubbie sentiment that gets him in.

"There are only two seasons: winter and baseball"
-- Bill Veeck

by njjohn on Jul 28, 2008 11:59 PM EDT up 0 recs

Welcome to the 'Pit!

An interesting question. We did bring it up during the off-season, and had a poll to discuss who’d get in first. The general opinion was that none of the imminent ex-D’backs would get in, and Randy would be our first HoF.

Grace a first-ballot HoFer? I’m less convinced, especially when you take position into account. Sandberg was a second-baseman and so, is expected to produce at a lower level. Comparing Grace to other Hall of Fame first-basemen, it’s a lot less clear. His OPS+ is only 119, below everyone except George Kelly And Hughie Jenkins, both of whose careers were basically over in the twenties.

Grace’s likely problem is that while he produced at a high-level for a long period [fourteen straight seasons with an OPS+ of 100 or better!], he never led the league in any offensive category except once, in 1995, when he was #1 for doubles. He was never in the top ten of MVP voting either, so I’m not sure he’s going to be seen as dominating enough.

Extremely solid player; sure. All-around great guy; I’d say. But Hall of Famer? I’m open to arguments on that one.

by Jim McLennan on Jul 28, 2008 4:37 PM EDT 0 recs

Personally, I think Grace is more likely to get voted in by the Veteran’s Committee.

"Human beings, who are almost unique in having the ability to learn from the experience of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so."

by kishi on Jul 28, 2008 4:41 PM EDT 0 recs

True enough

his numbers suggest he should be in, but he never dominated the era he was in, and that might come back to haunt him for awhile.

Knock off the hippie crap, strap on a helmet, and start shooting. This is baseball, Diamondbacks, I want you to storm that beach like it's Normandy!

by soco on Jul 28, 2008 7:04 PM EDT up 0 recs

I, too, think it more likely that Grace would get voted in by the Veteran’s Committee, if at all. I just don’t see him making it with the writers. He was a solid player for a long time. He was a good hitter. And he is well liked by fans. But, I really think the comparative stats with similar players are a strong case against him. If he goes on to do any managing, or has a long career in broadcasting, perhaps the Veteran’s Committee would vote him in sometime in the future.

by SongBird on Jul 30, 2008 1:38 AM EDT up 0 recs

Just to clarify...

I brought up the “most hits in the 90s” as just one argument as why he should be a HOF-er. That alone is not good enough. I do not buy the “clean” argument people have brought up either because I do believe that in order to get into the Hall of Fame, you need to have the FAME. Jim Rice, Bert Blyleven, and Tommy John are just a few names who were good enough to make the HOF, but won’t because they didn’t have that spark that many Hall of Famers typically have. But when talking about a first ballot HOF-er, you have to look at who else is elgibile. Rickey Henderson is eligible and nearly definitely in. Other than that, Mo Vaughn and David Cone are the next most likely. The reason I say Gracie is a HOF-er is because he will get that media vote.

Let the debate continue…

by thetomcat87 on Jul 28, 2008 10:45 PM EDT 0 recs

Nearly Definitely?

I would say definitely. Name the hitters with 3000 plus hits not in the HOF? The list begins and ends with Pete Rose. In fact, since 1947, every other hitter with 2800 or more hits is a first ballot HOFer. Henderson has 3055 hits and every stolen base record worth having.

by UofAZGrad on Jul 28, 2008 11:59 PM EDT up 0 recs

To roughly quote Bill James

you could split Ricky Henderson in half and you’d have two Hall of Famers.

Tomcat, you talk about players needing that “fame” to get in and then you go onto mention Mo Vaughn and David Cone. What is it, someone had to have played for the Red Sox and Yankees to be a hall of famer?

Part of the hall mission to be to memorialize the greatest players in the game and give them lasting tribute for future generations. To not put Bert Blyleven in because he played for some unremarkable Twins teams is to do an injustice to future generations that won’t learn about his remarkable resiliency and big looping curveball.

In some ways, the future candidate that reminds me the most of Grace is Ichiro! They are both outstanding defenders, but at less important positions. They are both hitters that are greatly overrated for their ability to put up high batting averages even though the rest of their secondary stats generally underwhelm – especially when compared to positional averages. But as opposed to Grace who Cubs and Diamondbacks fans like (and overrate) for his personality, Ichiro! has the sort of history-making “fame” that I feel has an actual place in the HOF.

Ichiro! is the benchmark for the new wave of Japanese position players and he already has 2,998 combined hits between the MLB and NPB. Those are the sorts of exceptions that should be made for the Hall – not slick fielding, foul-mouthed, slump-busting, light-hitting, chain smoking first baseman.

by dahlian on Jul 29, 2008 1:37 AM EDT up 0 recs

I mentioned Vaughn and Cone

as reasons Grace should get in compared to the rest of the ballot. I don’t think there is any way Vaugh or Cone will ever get in

by thetomcat87 on Jul 29, 2008 7:58 AM EDT up 0 recs

another thing James encourages voters to identify isnt so much whether a candidate is “qualified” based on single stat arguments (ie most hits in the 90’s) or ludicrous past inductions, but to try and discern who the most qualified candidates are. As you’ve started to outline, Grace is way way down the list when administering that standard.

And I agree about Ichiro being a special case, like Monte Irvin or Ozzie Smith, in the sense I hope the Hall doesnt simply morph into an alphabetical roster of OPS behemoths. No danger of that yet, of course, but I’m inclined to support someone like Ichiro more than a clearly superior hitter – and entirely respectable candidate – like McGriff. It is the Hall of Fame, after all, not the Hall of OPS, and I have little difficulty characterizing Ichiro as a “great” or “important” player, something I cant honestly say about Grace.

by Diamondhacks on Jul 29, 2008 8:05 PM EDT up 0 recs

Fame

It’s why Edgar Martinez will get in, but McGriff and Galarraga won’t.

Fire Bob Melvin

by nihil67 on Jul 29, 2008 8:09 PM EDT up 0 recs

Tommy John should make it in just on the fame of “Tommy John surgery”. ;-)

It's like living with a six-year old.

by 4 Corners Fan on Jul 31, 2008 12:24 PM EDT up 0 recs

Hasn't Mark Grace...

made comments or remarks suggesting that he’s no where close to being a hall of famer? I’m going off memory hear, but I do believe that he’s made comments stating that he doesn’t believe he belongs in the hall of fame.

Dear Josh Byrnes: Please DFA Chris Burke. He can't hit, and probably never will.

by Zephon on Jul 29, 2008 1:35 AM EDT 0 recs

I seem to recall the same

But he’s pretty much maxed out his Public Modesty skilltree, so there’s no telling how he actually feels.

Fire Bob Melvin

by nihil67 on Jul 29, 2008 11:31 AM EDT up 0 recs

Sure he has

And he has also made self-deprecating remarks that he is ugliest C.H.U.D to ever walk onto the field yet somehow he maintains a certain amount of confidence with the ladies. I guarantee you that Mark Grace believes himself to be a Hall of Famer regardless of his public remarks on the subject.

by UofAZGrad on Jul 29, 2008 12:29 PM EDT up 0 recs