And you may ask yourself - Where is that large automobile?
And you may tell yourself - This is not my beautiful house!
And you may tell yourself - This is not my beautiful wife!
And you may ask yourself - well...how did I get here?
  -- Talking Heads, Once in a Lifetime

I think there's no doubt that the first-half of the season has been largely disappointing for Diamondbacks' fans. While we would likely have taken a one-game lead in the division, if it had been offered us in Spring Training, the truth is that we were all hoping for the team to be better than the sub-.500 level, at which they currently sit. And if they reproduce their form from the start of May on going forward, we're looking at a 74-88 season. Yuck. So, what happened? Let's take a look: below you will find five things that worked, five things that haven't...and then five possible targets whom we can blame. :-)

What has worked

1. Dan Haren. Before the season, the five major projection systems put Haren at an ERA of anywhere between 3.62 and 4.11, with a WHIP no better than 1.19. Even the most optimistic of our SnakePit Nostradamuses, manphibian, would go no lower than 3.40  The reality has been much, much better: a first-half ERA of 2.72 with a WHIP below 0.96, the best in the National League - only he and Hamels have a stat there below 1.10. The haul we had to pay for him was undeniably steep. However thus far, he has been worth it. Now, if he can avoid the second-half fall-off [his ERA post-break last year was 1.80 runs higher than pre-break], Webb might have some competition for MVP this year.

2. Conor Jackson. There was some debate before the season whether Jackson could play full-time at first. The naysayers were proved correct - but only because Jackson stepped into the breach caused by Eric Byrnes' injury and has been playing right field, and doing a pretty decent job there. While merely leading the team in OBP and OPS. His defense at first did remain something of an issue, with some painful clunkers that ended up costing the team at least a couple of games. However, he had adapted well to the outfield: if he maybe hasn't turned in any Web Gems, he has played error-free baseball in 149 innings, and even managed an assist. Plus, did anyone think Jackson would be tied for the team lead in stolen-bases and triples at the All-Star break? His new-found speed this year has certainly been an asset.

3. Brandon Lyon. Let's compare the stats of Lyon this year against Valverde over the first-half of 2007:
Lyon 2008: ERA 2.43, WHIP 1.135, .243/.276/.382  = OPS .658, Save % = 82.6%
Valverde 2007: ERA 2.83, WHIP 1.143, .198/.286/.336 = OPS .622, Save % = 89.7%
Thus far, Lyon has proven himself to be an very acceptable replacement for Papa Grande - that he has fewer saves [19 vs. 26] is down largely to a shortage of chances: he has blown four opportunities, compared to three for Valverde at the same point. And the most recent one of those for War, was due to an unearned run. I think there's generally a much greater sense of calm when Lyon comes in; he's a lot less likely to walk opposing hitters [only seven in 37 innings] and that helps. At the moment, the Valverde trade looks solid for us, on Qualls alone, though Burke and Gutierrez are looking more like a waste of time.

4. Mark Reynolds' offense. On pace for 32 homers and 99 RBI, there's no doubting that Special K's bat is one of the most potent in the line-up. Of course, the flipside for Reynolds is a projected 189 strikeout season, which would leave the previous franchise record [145, by Troy Glaus in 2005] for dust, and rank equal-fourth on baseball's all-time list. Overall, Reynolds' OPS+ is basically unchanged on last year, at 111 compared to 110, but it is worth remembering that he is only 24, so Mark is still on the right side of the aging curve. What we see is likely what we will get going forward - lots of homers, lots of K's. Though I note that he is also tied with Jackson for the team lead in walks, having matched his BB total from last season, in 25 fewer games.

5. Augie Ojeda. A special mention goes to the Littlest Ballplayer, who without the benefit of regular playing time, has posted an on-base percentage of .381, second only to Jackson. I guess having the Littlest Strikezone probably helps there. :-) However, he has also driven in a career-high fifteen runs already, though he's never going to hit for much power - his SLG is thirty points below his OBP! You've got to be happy with a bench player who bats .281, has two errors in 242 innings and can play second, short or third. Add in his undeniable hustle and cheerful attitude, no matter what Melvin may throw at him [he has hit everywhere in the order from first to ninth, except for fifth], and it's obvious why Ojeda is a huge fan favorite.

What has not worked

1. Randy Johnson. If you can't think of a better way to spend $26m than what we've got out of the Big Unit in the past season and a half, you're not trying: and yes, "hookers and blow," would be an acceptable answer. Pro-rated, the ten wins he's given us to date have cost $20.6 million. Anyone think the Petit Unit couldn't have done that for one-fortieth of the cost? For Petit's career ERA of 4.57 is better than the 4.71 posted by Johnson since his return to the desert. There have, I admit, been flashes of brilliance by Johnson, who can still turn in performances reminiscent of the dominant pitcher who'll be going into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot. However, for the amount we're paying him, I want that almost every start.

2. The outfield offense. This could easily be three-fifths of the list, but picking apart Byrnes, Young and Upton individually would get repetitive. From left to right therefore: Eric has, literally, been hamstrung. The $30m contract is currently looking Ortiz-like in its wisdom. Meanwhile, Chris Young and Justin Upton have got worse each month. Here is the production, as measured by OPS, from our Opening Day outfield trio:

Any questions? We now have two-thirds of our outfield players with little or no experience, while Chris Young's discipline has evaporated entirely. He took 17 walks by the end of April, but has just seven since May 28, in 181 plate-appearances, with 41 strikeouts.

3. The running game. The most obvious measure of this is stolen-bases, and we have only 31 collectively there. Four players [Taveras, Bourn, Pierre and Reyes] have more than that. Worse is the 66% success-rate when we try. Compare last season where, after 95 games, we had stolen 46 bases, at a 79.3% rate of success. The biggest part of this is down to the loss of Eric Byrnes, who had 22 of those SBs; this year, his hamstrings limited him to just four. But Mark Reynolds and Conor Jackson leading the team? That's just wrong.  Equally as bad has been the performance on the base-paths generally, where the team has been positively schizophrenic: some days, we've been "aggressive" to the point of psychopathy, while on others, we've been far too cautious. We've wandered off second, been picked off first and ran into needless outs; when the offense is struggling, that's the last thing we need.

4. Mark Reynolds' defense. Let's not particularly pick on Mark; the infield defense has generally been poor. Jackson at first was previously documented, but Hudson is already only two short of his error total for all of last season, with an RF that's continuing it's downward trend [from 5.48 in 2006, to 4.91 last season, and now 4.78 thus far]. Drew's range has also dropped, though his error total is on pace to be a little better than 2007. That can't be said for Reynolds, however; his error total matches his HR total to date, and he's looking good to set a franchise-worst mark in the former category. It's infuriating, since he is also occasionally capable of making brilliant plays: seems at times that he is guilty of thinking too much, when has time to make the play. His three-error game - two in the ninth inning - last week against the Nationals is one that will live with me for quite some time.

5. The bench. Nobody said that coming late into a game was easy; there are only four players in the majors with 25+ PH at-bats, and an average better than .273. But overall, Arizona pinch-hitters have only two homers and an OPS of .635. In contrast, 2007 saw 12 homers and an OPS of .782. [And in case you're wondering: no, Tony Clark was not our best man there. Miguel Montero had a line of .350/.391/.850, with three homers in twenty at-bats. We're still waiting for Miggy to go deep for the first time, in any situation, this season.] Part of this is down to roster construction, that's for sure; but outside of one at-bat, the "Owings as PH" experiment has also been a dismal failure. When he is combined with Chris Burke and Montero, the trio are 5-for-37 off the bench. The near-mystical ability to generate a run when needed was part of our success in one-run games this year; the inability to do the same is now part of the problem.

Who is responsible?

1. The players. On-field performance starts with the players, naturally. This does remain a young team - our hitters are the youngest in the National League. Looking at the standings, it certainly doesn't seem that they are showing the hoped-for improvements this season.  However, Snyder, Jackson, Hudson, Reynolds, Drew and Upton have all posted a better OPS+ this year than last. Here are the figures for the team collectively through the first 95 games of this season and last:
  2007: .249/.316/.400 = OPS .716, 389 runs scored, 419 runs allowed
  2008: .249/.323/.406 = OPS .729, 420 runs scored, 416 allowed
So, the team is getting on base slightly better, with more power and scoring more runs this season than last, while allowing about the same number. Will they kick things up a notch, as they did in the second-half of 2007? And can those players who struggled, turn things around? These are likely to be the big questions, whose answers determine whether this team goes on into the playoffs.

2. The coaches. With a young roster, such as the Diamondbacks have, the coaches play a particularly important role in getting the best out of the players. I have to question whether they have been doing that, going by the lack of improvement, even in the basics such as base-running and throwing - which, I'd have said, they should have arrived in the majors, knowing how to do. I know a few players, such as Reynolds and Upton, skipped Triple-A and came straight to the majors, so I would expect them to be somewhat less polished. We don't know what's going on behind the scenes, of course. Still, it has been all too painfully obvious that, in many respects, this is not a fundamentally-sound team, and I don't get the feeling that much has been done to correct it - or, if it has, the results have been unimpressive.

3. The manager. From Manager of the Year to...? If Melvin gets the credit for the 90 wins last year, doesn't it seem plausible that, with much the same roster, just a year more experienced, and a better run-differential, he should carry the can for this season's failings? This team now needs to go 43-24 over the second-half, even to match the 2007 record - if you feel confident that we can do that, you're a bigger optimist than I. While we, again, don't know how much good he is doing behind the scenes, there is a lot to criticize regarding his on-game management. Lineup construction that appears to involve maximizing at-bats for those least prepared to use them [Drew, Young and even Burke hitting lead-off?]; a fondness for sacrificing good hitters; poor choice of relievers. I am hard pushed to think of many games where Melvin's decisions have been the key to victory; I don't have to look far for cases where the opposite has been true.

4. The GM. Here's a theoretical line-up, consisting entirely of players who were in the organization when Josh Byrnes took over the team, in October 2005. I've also included their OPS+ figure for this season, and the salary they're earning this year - as well as the regular 2008 incumbent, their OPS and salary.

Note in particular the lines in italics: at half of the non-pitching positions, we have traded [and in some cases, given] away players who would be a significant improvement in our offensive performance, between 34 and 47 points of OPS+ better. And, overall, they would also be paid about twelve million dollars less this season. Now, you can't expect every move to be gold. Still... I think it's safe to say that things could have turned out a great deal better, and you have to question what is going on at Chase, in terms of player assessment and development.

5. The owners. ""I was shocked when Jeff called me in. I didn’t think anything would happen. After the discussions in Milwaukee, I really thought that I was going to play the rest of the season out and I was going to end up in a different uniform next year... So anyhow, I went in there and Jeff and I talked it out like two grown men would." [Link] Would we be where we are today, had Moorad not offered $30m to Eric? Might Quentin be smacking all those homers out of Chase, rather than in Chicago? Instead we have our man sitting on the DL, with a full no-trade clause and no idea if he'll ever be half-way effective again. Plus, this isn't the first time Moorad has been involved in a deal that turned out very questionable. He was Shawn Green's agent before he came to AZ, with an extension that blocked Quentin. And who were the first free-agents signed on Moorad's watch? Troy Glaus and Russ Ortiz...

The truth is, very likely a little bit from all of the above; none of the groups mentioned above have managed to cover themselves in glory with their performances this year, and all likely have a share in responsibility for what has transpired. I'm keen to hear, over the All-Star break, how people here view our current situation, and who they hold responsible for it.