Haren or Webb? Who's our All-Star?

by Jim McLennan on Jun 29, 2008 8:12 PM EDT

There has been a certain predestined feeling that Brandon Webb will be the Arizona Diamondbacks' representative at the All-Star game next month in New York. He's the staff ace, and has more wins than anyone in the majors. But what about Dan Haren? Is he, perhaps, more deserving of being Arizona's representative? Let's take a look at the stats posted by the two pitchers this season.

	Webb	Haren
Starts	17	17
Quality	12	14
Record	12-4	8-4
ERA	3.21	2.85
WHIP	1.125	0.967
K:BB	94:29	96:19
BA	.232	.215
OBP	.287	.254
OPS	.609	.603

Looking at their statistics side-by-side, it's apparent there's a strong case to be made that Haren, over the course of the season, has pitched better than Webb. That's been especially true in the month of June, where Haren has an ERA of 1.32, compared to Webb's 4.76. Now, it's certainly true that Webb won his first nine starts, posting an excellent ERA of 2.56 over that time. But the 9-0 record was as much due to our ferocious early offense: we scored an average of 6.2 runs per game in support of Webb over that streak.

In contrast, Dan Haren has received more than five runs of support from the hitters only four times over his seventeen starts - meanwhile, in his four losses, Arizona scored a grand total of seven runs. Not that Webb has fared much better, getting eight runs behind him, over his four defeats. But it's in the no-decisions where Haren has been hurt. Even though they've pitched almost the same number of innings [Brandon has recorded four more outs] Webb only has one ND; Haren has five, all of them quality starts, with an ERA during those games of 2.81. With a little more help from the bullpen and/or the offense, he could easily be 12-4 as well.

It's certainly great to have both of them on board for the Diamondbacks, and if - somehow - we make it into the playoffs, I don't think any team will look forward to facing Webb and Haren in the post-season. How far we get, will likely depend on their performances in October. However, it looks likely that we will have only one representative at Yankee Stadium next month - I can't see it being any of the hitters. So, who should it be? Webb or Haren?

Poll

Who should be the Diamondbacks All-Star pitcher?

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Comments

Oh man

this is a tough one.
There’s a compelling case to be made for either of them.

For me, without using stats to back me up, going on pure emotion and gut feeling: I pick Webb.

The number one reason in my mind: He’s home grown talent. Not a knock at all on Haren and I wouldn’t be the least upset if he was our sole represent in NY in a few weeks. Like I said, I am basing this just on pure subjectiveness.

"It's like deja vu all over again."

by unnamedDBacksfan on Jun 29, 2008 8:21 PM EDT 0 recs

Haren

I mean the stats pretty much make the case. No need to go into any debate about it.

by dbacksfan01 on Jun 29, 2008 8:46 PM EDT 0 recs

They will both be on the squad

And neither is going to be the starter…that will be Lincecum or Volquez.

Haren has been the better overall pitcher in the first half, so far. But Webb is having a very good year, and he is Webb…...if it has to be one or the other, sorry, it’s got to be Webby on respect alone. To send Haren and not Webb would be a tremendous diss to the guy that has been the backbone of this team for 3 1/2 years.

by shoewizard on Jun 29, 2008 9:07 PM EDT 0 recs

But...

It isn’t OUR decision who goes or not… is it?

by dbacksfan01 on Jun 29, 2008 9:18 PM EDT up 0 recs

well

actually, they can influence it a little…...depending on how they handle the rotation, and declaring which pitchers are “available” or not.

by shoewizard on Jun 29, 2008 9:38 PM EDT 0 recs

Haren edges Webby in every category except for win-loss record, and that’s influenced heavily by the rest of the team. I say Haren should get the spot.

Currently blaming the D-backs struggles on: the removal of Dominar Rygel XVI from the throne.

by kishi on Jun 30, 2008 2:04 AM EDT 0 recs

They're equally deserving

in my eyes, and should both go.

In terms of who will be selected, Webb is a lock with the 12 wins, two more than anyone else, and the .750 Win %. He wont be snubbed.

Eight starters have more wins than Haren, however, plus Zambrano and Jurrgens are each 8-3 (Danny is 8-4) with comparable ERAs. Assuming Hudson, Hamels and Santana all miss the cut, that’s still ten guys to sort out, alot considering ASG rosters normally carry 12 pitchers – and the NL carried no less than six closers last yr.

This is Clint Hurdle’s team and Aaron Cook (10-5 3.64) will be on it one way or another.
Dempster is 9-3, 3.26 for the league’s best team. I gotta believe he’s going. Volquez, Lincecum and Sheets are locks – more deserving than either Webb or Haren. There’s Brandon. If Lohse wins his next start, he’ll be 10-2 for a very good team, and may go despite the high ERA. It get’s crowded in a hurry.

Haren’s a respected pitcher, though, and I think he’ll likely wind up on the roster, via election or injury replacement. I just wouldnt call him a lock at this point.

by Diamondhacks on Jun 30, 2008 2:39 AM EDT 0 recs

I pick Webb

Haren has the better stats, and I agree he has had a better first half. However, to me the All-Star game isn’t JUST a matter of picking who has had the best first half of the season. For me, to be an All-Star you must have had a good season, but your career performance matters also. Webb has had the better career and very nearly as good a first half, so I go with Webb.

by Craig from Az on Jun 30, 2008 12:51 PM EDT 0 recs

See, I'm just the opposite of that

It’s not a big deal with two guys like this, where both have played really well, but I’m always in favor of the guy who’s had a better first half of the season. I really get annoyed seeing guys get to the All-Star Game with a mediocre season, because they were great last season, or are just a really big name.

Currently blaming the D-backs struggles on: the removal of Dominar Rygel XVI from the throne.

by kishi on Jun 30, 2008 2:19 PM EDT up 0 recs

but in this case, Webb isn't having a mediocre season...

you take off those 2 really bad stats and Webb would have way better numbers than Haren… but even counting it, he’s still on MLB top in almost every category…
and yes, I agree with you that it’s very annoying to see a guy kinda “steal” someone’s spot because of a good past season.. but Webb has been great from almost 4 seasons… He’s got “stuff” to be an ASG starter…
however, I see a big wave on putting Lincecum or Volquez there… u know, the buzz around them is really big…

- The Question is: What is manah-manah?
- The Question is: Who cares!?

by Muu on Jun 30, 2008 3:54 PM EDT up 0 recs

starts*

- The Question is: What is manah-manah?
- The Question is: Who cares!?

by Muu on Jun 30, 2008 3:54 PM EDT up 0 recs

I’m not saying Webb wouldn’t be a deserving all-star. Don’t get me wrong there. Webb’s put up great numbers. But Haren edges him in nearly every category. And it doesn’t really seem fair to say “Take out Webb’s two bad starts…” I mean, if the Diamondbacks could drop 1/8 of their games from the stats- and pick their worst games for it, too- I imagine they’d look a lot better right now.

I assume Webb will be our representative, and I don’t feel too badly about that. I’d just lean towards Haren, if it were my call.

Currently blaming the D-backs struggles on: the removal of Dominar Rygel XVI from the throne.

by kishi on Jun 30, 2008 5:30 PM EDT up 0 recs

Kishi, some questions for you

Obviously THIS particular poll is about the pitchers for the All Star game, and the fans don’t get to vote on pitchers. But the idea is IF YOU COULD VOTE for pitches, who would you vote for. So the principal I am about to apply goes for both position players and pitchers:

When you say: I’m always in favor of the guy who’s had a better first half of the season., from when to when are you talking about? Are you talking from April 1 up until July 10th?

The all star ballots are distributed starting in late April, and many fans are voting through the month of May. So you always see certain guys who get off to hot starts in April and the first part of May getting a lot of votes. In order to apply your “better first half of the season”, and have that half season not actually be just 4 or 5 hot weeks, you would have to find a way to have all the voting done in a narrow one week window right about the midway point of the season.

Don’t forget too that the smaller sample size that represents a half season or less than half a season, really distorts the picture a good deal more. A guy hits .380 in April…..and .280 every month thereafter…...his batting avg won’t dip under .300 till the last week of the season. (based on 100 AB’s per month)

So just what exactly constitutes a half season? When should you vote for the player based on that half season? When the Ballots come out in April? On May 15th? on June 30th?

by shoewizard on Jun 30, 2008 4:12 PM EDT up 0 recs

I do my voting around this time of the year, so I’m looking at the first three months of their season. I do it all online, so it doesn’t really make that much difference to me when ballots come out- I’ve only gotten to see one game in person in about five years, so I don’t get out to the ballpark very much. =)

Really, though, it’s not like it makes that much difference, because I’m pretty much resigned to seeing most of the lineup elected by people who decided their choices in April, and not necessarily April of this year. I’m far more interested in seeing who the manager chooses. Not that Bud Black has inspired a lot of confidence, if his choice of backups is going to be as good as his choice of assistants…

Currently blaming the D-backs struggles on: the removal of Dominar Rygel XVI from the throne.

by kishi on Jun 30, 2008 5:37 PM EDT up 0 recs

There's another way to look at it

Check the numbers between these two since the last All-Star game. Part of the problem with the All-Star game being in the middle of the season is that it discounts the people that do well for a full season. Eric Byrnes, Kevin Youkilis, Torii Hunter, and Dan Haren are all guys that have done better in the first half of the season over the past few years, but tank to some degree in the second half. Webb, on the other hand, only gets better as the year goes on.

Fire Bob Melvin. Free Jamie D'Antona. Eric Byrnes Sucks.

by nihil67 on Jun 30, 2008 1:11 PM EDT 0 recs

I agree

with your major point, that Haren fades more than Webb in the second half, and this sort of breakdown is a valid way to separate the two pitchers’ ASG value.

Webb, on the other hand, only gets better as the year goes on.

Certainly true last year, but careerwise, not really:

April/May 32-12 W/L
Post May 45-47

Granted, Brandon doesnt have the big 2nd half ERA dropoffs Haren has, but I wouldnt want people to get the impression he’s a victim of the ASG’s positioning in July either.

The guy who really gets better as the year goes on is Roy Oswalt:

First Half 61-44
2nd Half 57-18

by Diamondhacks on Jun 30, 2008 3:02 PM EDT up 0 recs

Sure

“but I wouldnt want people to get the impression he’s a victim of the ASG’s positioning in July either.”

But you’d be willing to give people the impression that wins and losses are the best way to judge if a pitcher gets better or worse?

Fire Bob Melvin. Free Jamie D'Antona. Eric Byrnes Sucks.

by nihil67 on Jun 30, 2008 3:50 PM EDT up 0 recs

Across these larger samples

(135 decisions for Webb, 180 for Oswalt), there’s a healthy correlation between a particular pitcher’s W/L splits and ERA splits – especially when the pitcher throws for the same team, same park, etc. By either measure, Webb’s best month has been April, and Oswalt’s August & September.

With that in mind, I guess I chose W/L over ERA because A) first half wins are a huge consideration in ASG selection, and B) W/L% more simply illustrates my point that, over his career, Brandon has been a better first half pitcher. [Could’ve made a similar point with ERA, but it’s a more involved explanation and somewhat harder to see right away – essentially his middle months(May-Aug) are virtually the same and “cancel” each other out in a 1st half-second half debate. That leaves April v September and he’s been significantly better in April. ]

Incidentally, Brandon’s post May W/L (45-47) wasnt introduced to suggest he’s a mediocre pitcher after May 31st. That’s mosly due to the fact he’s played on lousy teams. He’s just been better in April, again, over his career.

by Diamondhacks on Jun 30, 2008 5:37 PM EDT up 0 recs

Eric Byrnes, . . .are all guys that have done better in the first half of the season over the past few years, but tank to some degree in the second half.

Oh, that is a completely horrifying thought. Is it even possible for Byrnes to tank in the second half of this season?

It's like living with a six-year old.

by 4 Corners Fan on Jun 30, 2008 1:20 PM EDT 0 recs

Sure it is

He put up a .191/.255/.282 (.537 OPS) line in 67 games with Baltimore and Colorado in the 2nd half of 2005.

Fire Bob Melvin. Free Jamie D'Antona. Eric Byrnes Sucks.

by nihil67 on Jun 30, 2008 1:34 PM EDT up 0 recs

Gut feel

I’ll go for Webb, he’s more of a player for me… although Haren isn’t that far off…

__
Kidd Starr
Die Hard Fan
Addiction Recovery Arizona

by quaddaemon on Jun 30, 2008 2:02 PM EDT 0 recs

Something else to lob into the mix

Baseball Prospectus has a measure called Expected Wins, which works out a record for the pitcher, based on how often pitchers with the same innings pitched and runs allowed earned a win or loss historically. According to that, Webb “should” have 7.4 wins this season, and Haren 7.3 wins.

Okay, it basically muddies the picture even more. :-)

by Jim McLennan on Jun 30, 2008 4:50 PM EDT 0 recs

Well...

7.4 IS more than 7.3…

Fire Bob Melvin. Free Jamie D'Antona. Eric Byrnes Sucks.

by nihil67 on Jun 30, 2008 5:16 PM EDT up 0 recs

As long as we are muddling :-)

Disclaimer: I realize things like all star berths are based on results. One might look at the “results” of Webb’s wins and give him the advantage. Others might look at the ERA * WHIP and give Haren the advantage. But we can look deeper too

FIP:
Webb 3.00, Haren 3.11

xFIP
Webb 3.09, Haren 3.52

Compared to their actual ERA, it appears that Haren has had a little bit more good fortune than Webb. In fact…...looking at DER suggests that might be the case and explains the difference in FIP:

DER
Webb .724, Haren .749

Haren’s DER is pretty out of line with his past history

2005 .713
2006 .711
2007 .713
2008 .749

I think this is partially explained by the fact that he is a more or less a neutral or even slightly FB pitcher, and he has a faster OF in AZ than he had in Oakland. But I doubt that difference in OF quality is enough to explain such a large gap. A .749 DER is REALLY high, and there is likely to be some regression to the mean here for Haren’s hits allowed on fly balls in play. And when fly balls in play fall for hits, they are usually extra bases, and tend to impact ERA a great deal.

Webb’s DER is a little higher than usual too…but not completely out of line from the last two seasons:

2005 .698
2006 .713
2007 .715
2008 .724

The second point, is the Homeruns. Haren’s xFIP is a reflection of the fact that he would normally be expected to allow a few more Homers on the flyballs he has given up. Here is his HR per FB rate

2005 14.9%
2006 14.3%
2007 11.1%
2008 8.4%

If maintained, this would be by far his lowest HR/FB rate since he became a starter…...so some regression is possible here too. It suggests he has been a bit fortunate in this regard as well.

So just like Webb has been fortunate to have the run support to get 12 wins, Haren appears to have been more fortunate on balls in play than Webb, leading to a better ERA and WHIP, even though the total quality of the season year to date has not really been better at it’s base. However we ALL live in the moment, and Haren has clearly pitched much better than Webb over the last 4-5 weeks, so that more recent and immediate impression, combined with the raw numbers from the first post make this comparison take on a different complexion than it otherwise might.

Anyway, this is no slam dunk. They are both excellent pitchers having excellent seasons, and at the end of the day we are really splitting hairs. We are lucky to have them both. For me…...since Webb has been here longer, and has the better track record of actually being a star…......I would go for him. If Webb were 8-8 with a 4 ERA, obviously at that point you have to go with Haren. But thats not the case here.

by shoewizard on Jun 30, 2008 5:32 PM EDT up 0 recs

A riddle wrapped up inside an enigma

I agree with practically everything everyone has said, and that’s the problem. They really are both deserving. Their stats, either looking back from last year’s all-star game or from the beginning of this year, are both excellent. Neither one has been “snubbed”, and is now due. Neither is resting on his laurels. As others have said, thank goodness we have them both, and we don’t have to pick between them. For the purposes of this poll, I would have to go with Webb for two reasons. One, he is still the face of Diamondbacks pitching and that means something as a Dbacks fan. Two, if I had to choose one of them to start game 7 of the World Series, I’d go with Webb – less hittable when he’s at his best than Haren is at his best, in my opinion.

by aricat on Jul 1, 2008 7:36 PM EDT 0 recs

Webb is starting according the the NY Post

Arizona right-hander Brandon Webb will start for the NL and Cleveland lefty Cliff Lee goes for the AL.

a_rod_to_start_in_all_star_game_118584.htm” target=”_blank”>http://www.nypost.com/seven/07052008/sports/yankees/jetera_rod_to_start_in_all_star_game_118584.htm

"It's like deja vu all over again."

by unnamedDBacksfan on Jul 5, 2008 7:10 PM EDT 0 recs

a_rod_to_start_in_all_star_game_118584.htm” target=”_blank”>http://www.nypost.com/seven/07052008/sports/yankees/jetera_rod_to_start_in_all_star_game_118584.htm

"It's like deja vu all over again."

by unnamedDBacksfan on Jul 5, 2008 7:11 PM EDT up 0 recs

Well, we couldn't decide

And apparently neither could Clint Hurdle. Webb and Haren are both going to the All Star Game. I expect that will be our only representation.

Don't blink; blink and you're dead. Don't turn your back, don't look away, and don't blink. Good luck!

by Stile4aly on Jul 6, 2008 2:36 PM EDT 0 recs

This is totally appropriate

Really the poll results and the arguments presented answer the question.

They are BOTH all starts, and deservedly so.

by shoewizard on Jul 6, 2008 4:08 PM EDT 0 recs

Webb AND Haren.

And they’re both going. I win. :-)

From an emotional standpoint…. slash a standpoint that actually takes into account the worthless stat known as “wins”, I vote Webb. But….. from a performance/stats standpoint, definitely Haren.

I think it helps that Clint Hurdle has faced both of our co-aces, so he KNOWS how good they are. It’s a well-known fact that ASG managers overwhelmingly stash their own players on the roster, (Bob Brenly, anyone?) but what about other players from the same division?

Mark Reynolds: Turning me gay since '07

by DbacksSkins on Jul 7, 2008 12:13 PM EDT 0 recs