Gerardo Parra
I really need to come up with a good name for these articles. Any suggestions are gladly welcome.
Anyway, this week we'll look at the Diamondbacks' 21 year old top offensive prospect Gerardo Parra. Random fact: Parra is exactly one day older than me, being born on May 6th, 1987. All though this has nothing do with the rest of the article, Conor Jackson and James Loney of the Dodgers both share my birthday. Awesome. Getting back to the point. As usual, I'm going to look into the statistical track record of Gerardo Parra, as well as provide some insight into what kind of player I think he will become in the future
Gerardo Parra is a player that I've been keeping an eye on since he flat out raked in his 2006 minor league debut. Since then he's not only rocketed up the various top prospect lists out there, but he's also put up some fantastic numbers at a young age. Parra's presence in the Diamondbacks farm system may have also influenced GM Josh Byrnes' moves in the last offseason; Moves that saw the team move right fielders Carlos Gonzalez and *insert dead horse picture here*
Gerardo Parra is a not a big guy by baseball standards; MilB.com lists him as 5'11 195 lbs. He hits left handed, which is a godsend considering the right handed heavy lineup the Dbacks have at the Major League level. Parra is not a home run hitter. He has 15 HRs in his 1095 career ABs. This may be due in part to a mechanical issue, but I don't expect the guy down the road to start hitting for a ton of power anyway. Parra is more of a contact hitter with a solid on base percentage. However, Parra does make up for his lack of power with his speed and base running. He's by all accounts a very good defensive right fielder and is known for having a very strong throwing arm. He's also seen some playing time in center field.
Now that we have a basic understanding of what kind of player Gerardo Parra is, let's look into his statistics and dig deeper.
I can't seem to find Parra's full statistics for his 2005 season in the Dominican Summer League. However i do know that he did flat out rake; he hit 385/444/561 and lead the league or was in the top 5 in most offensive statistics. But honestly, i just don't how relevant these stats are in regards to evaluating talent. I don't know the playing conditions and environment of the league, and I don't know the quality of the pitching he faced. Any analysis would be pointless in my opinion, though I do think his 2005 season is worth mentioning in passing.
In 2006, Parra made his minor league debut as a 19 year old in the rookie ball Pioneer League. He definately turned heads in his 271 at bats, hitting .328/386/469 with 23 stolen bases. He not only lead the Pioneer league in hits with 89, but also finished ninth in batting average, and was fifth in stolen bases. One positive worth noting is his excellent strike out to walk ratio; striking out just 30 times while walking 25 times. One statistic that I like to point out is Parra's OPS relative to the rest of the Pioneer league; Parra's 855 ops vs his team's .733 OPS, and the league's .738 OPS. Once you factor in Parra's youth, his 2006 season becomes even more impressive
2007 started with a promotion to A ball and the Midwest League, and Parra responded well. In his 444 at bats with the Missoula Ospreys, Parra hit 320/370/435 with a strong K:BB ratio of 30:51. He also stole 24 bases while being caught 8 times. Once again it's worth noting just how much better Parra's .805 OPS is in comparison to his team's(.726) and the rest of the Midwest League(.696).
In late 2007, Parra struggled after being promoted to High-A Visalia, hitting .284/303/382 in 102 ABS with an awful 17:4 K:BB ratio . Once you compare his .685 OPS to the 770 OPS of the California League, his struggles are magnified.
Looking at 2007 all together, Parra finished the year hitting .313/357/425. In 546 ABS he struck out 68 times while walking 34 times. He stole 26 bases and was caught 11 times. He also had an impressive 171 hits, 40 going for extra bases. 2007 was another good year for Parra, even though his overall numbers are dragged down by his time in Visalia.
With his numbers in the last three years, and the flurry of trades that drained a lot of talent out of Arizona's farm, Parra became Arizona's top position prospect. It's at this point I think most Dbacks fans started following Parra. Or maybe they noticed him in his limited action in the Cactus League in spring training. Anyway, Parra's 2008 season began back in the California League where he had struggled the year before. This time, however, he didn't struggle.
In 196 ABS with the Visalia Oaks, Parra hit 301/381/413. His plate discpline was excellent, drawing 23 walks while striking out only 31 times. He also stole 12 bases and was caught only 4 times. Once again his 794 OPS is higher than the leagues 740 OPS, and much higher than Visalia's 677 team OPS.
Parra was then promoted to Double A Mobile in late May. In the 82 ABs since his promotion he's hit 293/344/415 drawing 5 walks striking out 9 times. He's also swiped 3 more bags and has been caught once. His numbers are down a bit, but his 759 OPS is still higher than the leagues 744 OPS and Mobile's team OPS of .700. The rest of the season has yet to play out though, and it'll be interesting to see his stats at the end of the season.
Looking at his batting splits this year, Parra is hitting RHP(809 OPS) much better than LHP(708 OPS). However in 2006 his platoon splits are reversed; an OPS of 967 against LHP versus an .833 OPS against RHP. This may be something to keep an eye on in the future, but in my opinion, I don't think Parra will end up being platooned in the long term.
Parra should be ready for the big leagues by the end of the 2009 season. He could get a cup of coffee when the rosters expand to 40 in September, but most likely, he'll finish the year in AA. He'll then start 2009 in AAA, and then wait for the call up. Barring injuries or a trade, there's no place for Parra to play until the Eric Byrnes contract expires.
Just to summarize, Gerardo Parra's top prospect reputation is well deserved. He's a good hitter who makes a lot of contact, and should hit over .300 on a regular basis. He doesn't draw a ton of walks, but he's hard to strike out, and has good plate discipline. He's an excellent base runner, and should be good for at least 25+ stolen bases a season in his prime. He has a good defensive reputation, and should only get better with time. At 21 years of age, Parra is still young, and has plenty of room for potential growth. His one knock as a player, a lack of power, is made up for by the other skills/tools he brings to the table.
So just to wrap this up, I'll end with my usual questions. What to do you think of Gerardo Parra? How does he fit in with the current major league roster? When do you think he will he be called up to the big leagues? What's a good nickname for Parra? I can't think of one.
Thanks for reading guys.
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::le sigh::
that’s really all i’ve got right now for this team.
I am happy that Byrnes got a hit. However, I still think he should remove the caterpillar from his upper lip.
Two days later, Eric Byrnes missed three games for excessive crying, and started listening to emo. At the same time, Emily changed her name to emilylovesthedbacksexceptthatloserericbyrnes.
by emilylovesthedbacks on
Jun 28, 2008 3:15 AM EDT
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wow.
that was dumb…and what i get for posting after midnight.
not supposed to go here…
Two days later, Eric Byrnes missed three games for excessive crying, and started listening to emo. At the same time, Emily changed her name to emilylovesthedbacksexceptthatloserericbyrnes.
by emilylovesthedbacks on
Jun 28, 2008 4:18 AM EDT
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Been through this before
But my birthday is May 7th, 1986 :)
So...time for another drink then?
by Wimb on
Jun 28, 2008 6:06 AM EDT
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Bit of news on Parra
Triple-A second baseman Emilio Bonifacio and Double-A outfielder Gerardo Parra have been selected to play in the Futures Game on July 13 at Yankee Stadium. Both will be on the World Team; Bonifacio is from the Dominican Republic, Parra from Venezuela.
Link
by Jim McLennan on
Jun 29, 2008 12:06 AM EDT
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And as for a title
How about ‘Backs to the Future?
Sure you can come up with something better… :-0
by Jim McLennan on
Jun 29, 2008 12:07 AM EDT
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Alfredo Marte
I don’t know if you’ve heard about him, but he is another exceptional outfield prospect in our organization. He is still very young, 19, but he will eventually be a stud in the majors. Besides that, however, I have not heard much else. Do you know anything about him?
by JUPTON10 on
Jun 29, 2008 12:09 AM EDT
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Marte is definately an interesting prospect
I can’t find any information other than his statistics, age, height and weight. That happens sometimes.
So instead I’lll talk about his teammate, recently signed fifth rounder Collin Cowgill. The 5’9 outfielder is on a tear in Yakima. He’s got an absolutely ridiculous line of .267/.389/.711. Of his 12 hits, 2 were doubles, and 6 were home runs.
by Zephon on
Jun 29, 2008 4:13 AM EDT
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Collin Cowgill
Will most likely succeed filling the role of scrappy white guy in the major leagues.
by Zephon on
Jun 29, 2008 4:14 AM EDT
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Where are the doubles and triples?
I don’t think we expect Parra to hit a lot of homers. You’d like to see him hitting a lot of doubles and triples however. But he has just 17 DB/TP combined, and the 4 homers, so just 21 XBH in 283 at bats so far this year.
Just for comparison, Alex Romero at age 21 played the entire season at High A, (New Britain in the Eastern League) and hit .301/.354/.458 . 812 OPS with 31 doubles, 2 triples and and 15 homers. As Romero advanced, the next couple of years, he hit very few homers, his power ebbed, and he became a singles hitter.
by shoewizard on
Jun 29, 2008 1:53 AM EDT
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I knew you'd have something to add Shoe.
I don’t know if IIRC, but didn’t you compare Parra to Melky Cabrera a while back?
The whole lack of power thing could be explained by the mechanical issue I mentioned. For anybody who didn’t bother with actually clicking the link, Keith law made the follow observation:
Parra’s got a quick bat and gets to the ball quickly, centering well but not quite as often as he should. He does a good job keeping his weight back, but after a toe-tap trigger, he opens his front leg a bit, starting his hip rotation a fraction of a second too early. The ideal hitter - and there aren’t many of them - keeps his hip rotation timed with his swing so that he’s getting full use of his strength when he makes contact. Parra, however, is just a touch early.
So while he’s going to make a lot of contact due to his bat speed and good hand-eye coordination, he’s not going to hit for as much power as he could unless he can stay closed a little longer.
I don’t know if Parra’s made any adjustments to fix that. IMHO, I’m just glad he’s got more power than Emilio Bonifacio has ever had. Lol
by Zephon on
Jun 29, 2008 3:51 AM EDT
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Hell fell off the Melky pace
Melky hit for more power age 20-21. My comp didn’t work out…..LOL
by shoewizard on
Jun 29, 2008 1:49 PM EDT
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No thanks
Another overrated, AAAA Diamondbacks prospect. He’s a slower Joey Gathright with a better arm. Granted, I give him a better chance of doing something than Bonifacio.
Free Jamie D'Antona
by nihil67 on
Jun 29, 2008 11:23 AM EDT
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I think Gaithright is not really the best comp
I like shoewizard’s Melky Cabrera comp….
by Zephon on
Jun 29, 2008 12:12 PM EDT
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Any reason?
Or just because you like the outcome of that one better? Go check the numbers… while they may be sort of similar in tools (Cabrera bats switch and has more power), they’re hard to compare.
Also, Parra is once again struggling after an in-season call-up. He’s very young for AA, but the Diamondbacks may be on the verge of killing this kid’s confidence. I don’t know what it would have hurt to let him sit in A+ for the whole season, maybe figure out a power stroke, and build confidence. He’s blocked, what’s the rush?
Free Jamie D'Antona
by nihil67 on
Jun 30, 2008 11:24 AM EDT
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Because he isn't blocked?
I’m not sure if you’ve noticed our left field situation.
by dahlian on
Jul 1, 2008 5:53 AM EDT
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I try not to get too emotionally invested in a player
I never really liked comparing a prospect to an already established major leaguer. It’s way too complicated, and honestly is never accurate enough. In addition it creates problems of expectation. It’s unrealistic to expect a guy like Upton for instance to perform like Griffey Jr did when he was 20 years old.
by Zephon on
Jun 30, 2008 5:30 PM EDT
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I know what u mean, but...
Ken Griffey Jr hit .264 with 16 HR when he was Justin Upton’s age so hopefullly J-Up will end up with better power numbers at least, and maybe even a better BA
by JUPTON10 on
Jun 30, 2008 8:15 PM EDT
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From baseball prospectus
They have this peak translator that they do where they can estimate what a players peak will be in the majors. This his how Parra faired…
.287/.342/.465 with a EqA of .277.
Those numbers seem pretty fair to me, a .277 EqA is alright and I expect him to reach that in his peak years as a major leaguer. Nothing more though and maybe a little less in my opinion though.
by dbacksfan01 on
Jul 2, 2008 2:03 PM EDT
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Equivilent Average
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2596
One of the more out-there measurements, if you ask me.
Fire Bob Melvin. Free Jamie D'Antona. Eric Byrnes Sucks.
by nihil67 on
Jul 3, 2008 11:07 AM EDT
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Update
Parra continues to struggle in Mobile. His line is down to .252/.314/.358. His lefty-righty splits continue to get farther apart.
Fire Bob Melvin. Free Jamie D'Antona. Eric Byrnes Sucks.
by nihil67 on
Jul 10, 2008 10:58 AM EDT
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Thanks for the update
Yeah he is struggling, but I’m pretty sure he’ll come around.
Please platoon Chad Tracy with someone other than Chris Burke!
by Zephon on
Jul 10, 2008 4:17 PM EDT
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