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Inherited Runners

Yeah, yeah, I know, dead horse. But for everyone who was asking, here are the numbers for our five top relievers, for both this year and last year.

Format is (Player) -- (# of IS)/(# of IR): (IS%)

Year: 2007

Cruz --7/27: 25.9%

Lyon -- 6/21: 28.6%

Peña -- 10/38: 26.3%

Qualls -- 8/31: 25.8%

Slaten -- 12/36: 33.3%

 

Year: 2008

Cruz --5/16: 31.3%

Lyon --2/3: 66.7%

Peña --1/5: 20.0%

Qualls --8/16: 50.0%

Slaten -- 2/8: 25.0%

Source: ESPN.com

 

The figures for Qualls and Peña include the two runners that each inherited in  tonight's game. Obviously, the normal small sample size caveats apply, especially to Lyon's whopping 2/3 IS/IR. A look at 2007's numbers shows that Chad Qualls was actually the BEST out of these five, albeit with a completely different defense behind him.

I don't think Qualls can continue to be THIS bad; I'd expect him to progress back towards the mean, just as Tony P and Slaten will regress slightly. Still, Qualls is NOT good with guys on right now, and I think giving him a vacation from inherited runners for awhile might help whatever's ailing him -- be it confidence, distractions, etc. I also think the fact that Qualls throws more sinkers may have something to do with it -- Chad has uncorked four wild pitches in 36.1 innings. Of the others, only Peña and Cruz have a WP (one each) -- in 35 and 27.2 IP, respectively.

I'm sure there are plenty of other explanations for these numbers, and I'm sure there's plenty I've left out, but.... as anyone who read tonight's GameDay Thread noticed, (*ahem*) I feel EXTREMELY uncomfortable with Melvin bringing in Qualls with runners on base.

Am I right? Am I wrong? Either way, this is not even close to being a detailed study. Anyone else notice any trends or wanna point out any other relevant stats? Discuss.

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I posted these in the game recap, but

They likely also belong in this post. Here are Qualls’ splits for the year, coming into today’s game:
Bases empty: .176/.263/.250
Men on base: .242/.310/.355
Runners in scoring position: .333/.404/.487
The last figure will now look even worse, as Boston went 3-for-5 tonight there against Qualls – a quick bit of button-pushing reveals opponents are now batting .364 against him with RISP.

by Jim McLennan on Jun 25, 2008 12:34 AM EDT   0 recs

That is definitely relevant information.

And actually, I was going to go ahead and look that up, but I just got too tired/depressed of thinking about tonight.

Have the Dodgers lost yet?

by DbacksSkins on Jun 25, 2008 12:45 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Look that up for all 5 of them,

I mean.

Have the Dodgers lost yet?

by DbacksSkins on Jun 25, 2008 12:45 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

RE: the four wild pitches,

there does seem to be something about Qualls’ movement that simply drives Snyder batty. The pitches that he misses usually don’t appear to be particularly difficult, but he still seems to whiff in an inordinate numbers of Qualls’ appearances (yes, I did just go out of my way to avoid typing Qualls’ balls).

If I could find a source that features game logged fielding data, I would look further into the number Qualls-Snyder WP and PB, but for now that seems especially daunting.

by dahlian on Jun 25, 2008 1:34 AM EDT   0 recs

Also,

the truly amusing part of Quall’s situational numbers this year is that if they hold to form, then the best role for him would be Lyon’s closer job. If he only came into games with a lead and the bases cleared, he would be putting up “all star” numbers this season.

Have I mentioned lately how overrated closers are?

by dahlian on Jun 25, 2008 4:13 AM EDT   0 recs

Yes, I think you've quite driven that nail into the ground.

;-)

I still don’t think it’s quite as simple as you’ve made it out to be - psychological factors, and all that - but your argument does make a lot of sense.

But Quall’s role is supposed to be primary/seconday setup man. (Depending on Tony also) That’s what he’s been all year. He has NOT been successful as a “stopper” out of the BP. Traditionally, that role last year often went to Cruz.

I DO think Qualls would make a good closer—at least, the way BoMel uses closers. (Heaven forbid they get more than 3 outs! Heaven forbid they come in before the 9th!!)

Have the Dodgers lost yet?

by DbacksSkins on Jun 25, 2008 10:53 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't know about Lyon

but I wouldn’t have wanted Valverde doing too many games with more than three outs. Those were generally scary enough.

Roads? Where we're going we don't need roads.

by soco on Jun 25, 2008 11:09 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I think it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

If BoMel refuses to bring you in for 4 or 5 outs, it’s gotta get into your head, too, that maybe you can’t handle that…. when he DOES eventually bring you in to get more than 3. Say, in the postseason?

Have the Dodgers lost yet?

by DbacksSkins on Jun 25, 2008 11:13 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

He did do a couple games

in the regular season of more than one inning, but you could argue that for most relievers, and most of them do okay. Valverde’s a completely different case, as everything he does is so ritualized, all the way down to what he does on the mound before he starts pitching.

Roads? Where we're going we don't need roads.

by soco on Jun 25, 2008 11:15 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Qualls isn't inducing DP's

He did at the beginning of the season, getting 5 quickly through April 24th.

But since then only one.

There is ebb and flow to a season, to player performance, etc. I don’t see why the team can’t at least temporarily have Qualls and Cruz switch roles.

by shoewizard on Jun 25, 2008 4:16 AM EDT   0 recs

Has there been any research

Into whether preventing inherited runners from scoring is a genuine talent? By that, I mean those who are good at it one year, also tend to be good at it the next: it looks as if Qualls had no problems in this area last season. In some ways, this is “clutch pitching”, and we already know that the evidence for “clutch hitting” seems to be ephemeral and fleeting. Some way would have to be found to take the different degree of difficulty into account: coming in with a runner on third and no outs, is a much harder situation than with a runner on first and two outs.

by Jim McLennan on Jun 25, 2008 11:22 AM EDT   0 recs

Here's a string of three games

that Chad Qualls started the inning and then gave up the lead:

May 4th
May 7th
May 10th

It was on May 24th where he came in the 9th and gave up a home run to lose the game.

Now some of the situations he was aided by poor defense, but that was a fair stretch where he was pretty awful, and might have been because of the month of April that he had.

Roads? Where we're going we don't need roads.

by soco on Jun 25, 2008 11:25 AM EDT   0 recs

Chad seemed to have deadarm early in May.

He pitched a LOT of innings in April.

Have the Dodgers lost yet?

by DbacksSkins on Jun 25, 2008 11:40 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

14 games in April

with 14.2 innings, 13 games in May with 10.1 (down from some of those losses), and 9 games in June with 9.1 innings.

Roads? Where we're going we don't need roads.

by soco on Jun 25, 2008 11:49 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Reliever Performance

From BaseballProspectus.com:

Overall reliever performance is measured by Adjusted Runs Prevented (ARP), a park-adjusted extension…which measures how run expectation changes between the time the reliever enters the game and the time he exits. For example…an average team with one out and runners at second and third would expect to score 1.37 runs in the remainder of the inning; with two outs and a runner on second, a team would expect to score 0.35 runs. If a reliever entered a game with one out and runners on second and third, and was pulled after getting a strikeout and surrendering a double that scored both runners, his Value Added for that appearance would be 1.37 – 0.35 – 2 = -0.98 runs. A player’s Value Added for the season is the sum of the Value Added results for each appearance in the season.

Here are the figures for the Diamondbacks bullpen this year:

Juan Cruz 7.5
Brandon Lyon 7.2
Max Scherzer 6.0
Tony Pena 4.8
Leonel Rosales -0.3
Billy Buckner -0.5
Brandon Medders -0.5
Jailen Peguero -0.5
Doug Slaten -1.1
Yusmeiro Petit -1.6
Chad Qualls -3.5
Edgar G Gonzalez -4.6

Based on these figures, our Four Horsemen this year have been Cruz, Lyon, Scherzer and Peña. Qualls has been very, very poor.

by Jim McLennan on Jun 25, 2008 1:38 PM EDT   0 recs

Intersting stat

Never heard of it before, just makes it more painful though to see just how bad a job Melvin is doing.

by dbacksfan01 on Jun 25, 2008 2:30 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

We should have put Scherzer in there,

oh wait…

The talent that is Josh Hamilton.

by srdmad on Jun 25, 2008 4:37 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Do you think he should be in the bullpen...

...rather than starting in Tucson?

Have the Dodgers lost yet?

by DbacksSkins on Jun 25, 2008 5:14 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

There weren't many opportunities

for him to pitch important innings when he was up here.

His first bullpen appearance was on May 17 and his final appearance on June 11. In that time the team played 19 games with 13 on the road. The team’s record over that span was 7-12. Seven of those losses were on the road in regulation meaning that the team only had to pitch for eight innings. When he was put in the bullpen, all the winning had led to Pena and Qualls being overworked. While Melvin hoped that Scherzer would be able to take some set up inning from them, the team decided to make that issue moot by losing instead.

Furthermore, in those 19 games Scherzer pitched 11 2/3 innings. Extrapolated over the course of the season that would put Scherzer on pace for 99 2/3 IP. In 2007, Heath Bell led all relievers in innings pitched with 93 2/3. I’m sorry, but I think that to criticize the team for their under-use of Scherzer while in the bullpen, is really grasping at straws.

by dahlian on Jun 27, 2008 3:41 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

If you're going to continue to assert your opinions

you should at least bear some of the burden of researching the facts to back them up.

But to answer your question, over those 19 games (his first bullpen appearance was May 23, not May 17th, but all the other numbers are the same) only three of those losses were came at the hand of the bullpen. They are:

May 24 – Doug Slaten
May 29 – Chad Qualls
June 2 – Doug Slaten

On May 24 Scherzer was unavailable because he pitched the previous day. On May 29 Randy pitched 7 innings and Melvin chose to go Pena-Qualls. June 2 went Qualls-Slaten-Lyon (one of the defense specials that saw the defense make two errors on the first two batters Qualls faced – including the infamous Reynolds throw home).

So that’s ten total games over that span in which the Diamondbacks had the lead after the starting pitcher left the game. Breaking it down further, over that 19 game stretch, the bullpen only pitched with the lead for 14 2/3 innings.

I’m still not seeing the problem with Scherzer’s usage.

by dahlian on Jun 27, 2008 7:38 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Use him ahead of Qualls,

and only behind Pena and Lyon.

The talent that is Josh Hamilton.

by srdmad on Jun 27, 2008 11:09 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You mean

This Max Scherzer? The one on the DL?

by Jim McLennan on Jun 25, 2008 5:18 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

That’s not good news at all.

It's like living with a six-year old.

by 4 Corners Fan on Jun 25, 2008 11:57 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I saw that on E.S.P.N.

Goes back to triple A and his shoulder gets tired, maybe he can’t handle being a starter?

The talent that is Josh Hamilton.

by srdmad on Jun 26, 2008 7:03 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

What makes you think

being used more often, rather than longer, would be better on his arm?

Mark Reynolds: Turning me gay since '07

by DbacksSkins on Jun 26, 2008 8:51 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

If he's a starter,

he would pitch about 7 innings every fifth game. He was a closer, he would pitch maybe 3 innings in any given 5 day span, so over the course of 5 days, he would be pitching less.

The talent that is Josh Hamilton.

by srdmad on Jun 27, 2008 6:11 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Not to linger on this TOO much,

but it’s great to know that Melvin and Price still stand by Chad Qualls.

I quote:


“We still are confident in him,” Melvin said. “He has some struggles, but earlier in the year, he was as good as anybody we’ve had.”

In an astonishing historical parallel, a Polish man named Bobov Melvinski was quoted saying this in September 1939:

“We are still confident in our cavalry’s ability to defeat German tanks,” Melvinski said. “We’ve had some struggles, but earlier in the history of Poland, in the 17th century, our cavalry was as good as anyone else’s.”

Mark Reynolds: Turning me gay since '07

by DbacksSkins on Jun 26, 2008 1:02 AM EDT   0 recs

Disclaimer: Yes, I’m aware that the idea that Polish cavalry charged German tanks is purely a fabrication for Nazi propaganda purposes.

Mark Reynolds: Turning me gay since '07

by DbacksSkins on Jun 26, 2008 1:06 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Did you just Godwin the thread?

Roads? Where we're going we don't need roads.

by soco on Jun 26, 2008 2:25 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

It takes more

than the mere mention of Nazis to Godwin a thread.

Mark Reynolds: Turning me gay since '07

by DbacksSkins on Jun 26, 2008 2:33 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I keed of course, but for everyone's sake:

“As a Usenet discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches one.”

Roads? Where we're going we don't need roads.

by soco on Jun 26, 2008 2:39 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

You're right.

I guess by the strictest definition, I did Godwin this thread, but it was only in passing and incidental.

Mark Reynolds: Turning me gay since '07

by DbacksSkins on Jun 26, 2008 2:43 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

And at least you were joking

Unlike the vast unwashed hordes of the internet.

Roads? Where we're going we don't need roads.

by soco on Jun 26, 2008 2:47 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Eh,

let them eat cake.

Mark Reynolds: Turning me gay since '07

by DbacksSkins on Jun 26, 2008 3:16 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Would you prefer they DFA him?

Or at least, publicly excoriate him?

by dahlian on Jun 26, 2008 2:33 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Of course not.

I’m just venting and overreacting more to the frustration of last night’s game in the context of our brutal loss tonight.

I thought that was fairly understandable…. I should be more clear. I kept pointing out, myself, that Qualls is still a great reliever.

Mark Reynolds: Turning me gay since '07

by DbacksSkins on Jun 26, 2008 2:36 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

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