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Diamondbacks 9, Mets 5: 8.6%

Record; 35-30. Pace: 87-75. Change on last season: -2

8.6%. That was the meager extent of our Win Probability after Stephen Drew flied out, becoming the second batter retired in the fifth inning. With just thirteen outs left, and a four-run deficit to overcome, things were looking distinctly bleak for the Diamondbacks, and another defeat on this miserable road-trip loomed large in front of us like....like a large, looming thing. But wait! They say it's always darkest before the dawn; and the victory snatched from the jaws of defeat tonight, the result of eight unanswered runs, might possibly - just possibly - be the tendrils of dawn creeping over the horizon like...like a creeping, tendrily thing. I'm sorry: that game drained me of all literary aspirations, you'll have to wait for the simile bank to refuel.

The game brought a merciful end to the sick streaks which have plagued Arizona of late. We scored more than five runs for the first time since May 26, and broke past eight hits for the first time since May 27. We ended up with twelve - seven of them in four innings from the Mets pen - which is a number not seen since May 15. Drew, Hudson, Jackson and Snyder got two apiece, including a homer for each man, with O-Dawg and CoJack adding a walk. Hudson started the fightback with a two-run homer in the fifth, but it was Augie Ojeda who had the key blow, a two-run single in the sixth which brought the scores back level. At the end of that inning, the winds swirling around Shea brought a 61-minute delay to proceedings, and it seemed possible the game might be held over till tomorrow.

Fortunately for the Diamondbacks, it wasn't, as they dominated the final three frames. Snyder broke the tie with a solo homer in the eighth, and Peña made it stand up with a scoreless frame, going through the top four slots in the Mets order. Romero led off the ninth with a slap-double down the left-field line, and after Young made his fifth out of the evening, Drew smashed the ball into the largely-deserted outfield bleachers, to provide us with some breathing room. Jackson followed with his own blast, and though not a save situation, Lyon posted his 23rd straight zero in the ninth, despite a leadoff double. [One quick note. Sutton said it's the longest scoreless streak by a reliever since Carlos Marmol last year. Not so. J.C.Romero of Philadelphia went 28.1 innings from September 2, 2007, through May 1, 2008.]

It all looked pretty unlikely in the first inning, as Micah Owings retired only one of the first seven New York hitters to come to the plate. The early lead Arizona had taken, on an RBI single from Jackson, proved to be a fleeting, stillborn thing. If Snyder hadn't managed to gun down Reyes as he tried to steal second, we could well have ended the first further behind than two runs. We soon were anyway, as David Wright uncorked a two-run homer off Owings. He struggled on beyond that, but was bailed out by Cruz after 4.1 innings, with his final line being eight hits, three walks and four earned runs - a third non-quality start in a row for him, though he did single and score on Hudson's homer.

Much credit is due to the five members of the pen who followed Owings. Cruz, Slaten, Qualls [who finally broke his streak of five losses, and got his first win in a Diamondbacks jersey], Peña and Lyon, who combined for 4.2 innings of shutout ball, allowing three hits and no walks. Perhaps equally important, they were economical with their work, those 4.2 frames requiring only 56 pitches, so our bullpen should be relatively fresh, especially with Webb going tomorrow, and averaging almost seven innings per start. Compare the Mets pen, who took 82 pitches for their four innings - Vargas (29 pitches) and Sanchez (24) will likely be unavailable on Wednesday.

280610121_diamondbacks_mets_82172347_live_medium
[Click to enlarge, in new window]
Master of his domain: Augie Ojeda, +21.9%
Honorable mentions: Snyder (+15.6%), Peña (+14.6%),
Hudson (12.8%), Jackson (+12.1%)
God-emperor of suck: Micah Owings, -34.3%
Dishonorable mention: Chris Young, -13.7%

I think that may be a record: I don't recall a game before where we had five players in positive double-digits. Of course, this was largely because of the large hole dug for us by Micah Owings early on. However, kudos are due to all the players mentioned in bold-type above, who all played key roles in the game. This was a great game to win: Todd Walsh, from beside the Diamondbacks dugout, said he could see the whole body-language change, and that they now clearly couldn't wait to get to the ballpark tomorrow. Whether that's true or not - and 'momentum' may be as over-rated as Pulp Fiction - if this victory doesn't turn our season around, then nothing short of fifty thousand Volts will.

Tumbleweeds rolled across the Gameday Thread in the second through fourth innings: I think we added only about 45 comments in the hour or so between me leaving work and getting home. However, early and late, there was a great deal of activity, and we ended at not far short of overflow levels. Present were Wimb, DbacksSkins, TwinnerA, hotclaws, luckycc, Augie's Army, bcloirao, foulpole, dahlian, CPAYNEonaplane, soco, kishi, unnamedDBacksfan, Counsellmember, srdmad, Stile4aly, emilylovesthedbacks, 4 Corners Fan, dstorm and mrssoco, so thanks to them for their attendance. Though perhaps the most entertaining thing in the game was the called strikes from home-plate umpire Jim Joyce - they sounded somewhere between a trumpeting elephant and the horn on a Model T Ford.

Looks like we'll not be getting Eric Byrnes back this series. While he's eligible to come off the DL tomorrow, Melvin ruled out any possibility of that happening before the team's return to Arizona on Friday. "He will not come off here, much to his chagrin... I want him to be able to run full speed and not have to hold anything back. That's a big tool in his game, whether it's psychologically or fundamentally. A lot of his game comes from being able to run and put pressure on a defense, like he does in the outfield. He's got to be able to go out. I'm not saying he has to be a certain time down the line, but he's got to be able to run and not hold back."

Oh, look - the Dodgers won... ;-)

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I don’t know if it’ll turn the team around, but I know that game helped recharge me. I haven’t enjoyed watching a game that much in weeks.

Currently blaming the D-backs struggles on: this pain in all the diodes down my left side.

by kishi on Jun 11, 2008 1:51 AM EDT   0 recs

I just finshed watching

the replay on FSN. It’s been a long while since this team came from behind to win. I hope like hell this is a turning point for the better.
Brandon Lyon… ERA is under 1.4 now… impressive.

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings. ~Earl Wilson

by unnamedDBacksfan on Jun 11, 2008 2:17 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Suckitude

This may be nitpicking, but Micah didn’t suck quite that bad. You forgot to add in the +.020 he earned with his bat. That said, the combined -1.123 from his last 3 outings must be approaching historic levels. Can you do some research on that?

What I really wanted to ask about were some apparent inconsistencies in WPA in this game.

Case 1: Reynolds went 1-for-4 with a walk and a run scored, netting him a -.084. Upton went 0-for-4 with a HBP and a run and he gets off almost scot free with a -.004. I realize timing is everything with WPA, especially in a wild game like this. The Sheriff’s 3 strikeouts did come at much more critical times than JUp’s trio. But should getting plunked once offset a night of otherwise complete futility? (And I’m not even factoring in his error, which apparently got dumped on Owings.)

Case 2: Slaten, Qualls and Pena each pitched scoreless innings, all of which were critical to staying in the game until the offense woke up. Yet Pena’s one inning (.146) is deemed nearly as valuable as their two innings combined (.167).

by fjm235 on Jun 11, 2008 3:48 AM EDT   0 recs

Timing is everything, indeed

Reynolds’ at-bats:
1st, one out, Men on 1st/3rd – K. -5.8%
3rd, two out, 1st/2nd – K, -3.2%
6th, no out, no on – BB, 5.3%
8th, no out, no on – K, -4.8%
9th, two out, no on – single, +0.1% [we were four up by then]

Upton’s at-bats
2nd, no out, no on – K, -2.4%
4th, one out, no on – K, -1.2%
6th, one out, 1st – HBP, +5.4%
8th, one out, no on – K, -1.8%
9th, one out, 1st/3rd – Fly out, -0.4%

Basically, Reynold’s at-bats game in higher-leverage situations, and the only time he got on base, the game was basically already won. In contrast, Upton’s only time reaching base put the tying run aboard, so that’s a big help. His early at-bats were with nobody aboard, so didn’t have much effect. He also didn’t end any innings, which tends to increase negative WP, as it wipes out all base-runners.

Much the same goes for the pitchers. Slaten got a +7.7% and Qualls a +9.0%, so not bad. But as long as the score remains tied, you’re never going to see the WP move very far from 50%. Pitching a scoreless, late inning with a one-run lead is going to do more for your win chances.

by Jim McLennan on Jun 11, 2008 11:06 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Micah

This may be nitpicking, but Micah didn’t suck quite that bad

Agreed. By my count Owings deserved five or six outs in the first inning. He certainly wasnt great and Upton saved him a run in the fourth, but the Mets had a ton of ground ball hits, many in the infield, and while the Dbacks were fortunate CoJack’s inability to turn a tailor made two didnt cost them the game, it helped extend Micah’s pitch count by seventeen.

The Mets hit some liners right at people, but after I add up the wouldas and shouldas, I dont think it’s unreasonable to see where Micah could’ve gone six, giving up three or four runs. Nothing to brag about at Shea, but occasionally good enough to win.

by Diamondhacks on Jun 11, 2008 2:53 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Just to add

Pitch count didn’t seem much of an issue – Owings was only at 83 pitches when he was pulled, even with the extra 17. All told he has now allowed 24 hits in his past three starts and only 13.2 innings, and that’s not all defense. I know there was concern before the season about him lacking the third-pitch needed for a starter to be effective. Anyone know how that has worked out this year?

by Jim McLennan on Jun 11, 2008 3:42 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

upton

the tigers sent Willis to A ball, maybe Mr Justin needs to retool at a lower level

by kkenney on Jun 11, 2008 9:52 AM EDT   0 recs

Owings

There are some interesting numbers associated with Owings and his performance to date. He’s increased his K/9 by 1.53 over last year… BB/9 is down just a touch… his BABIP is .313 vs. a .280 last year. So… is he the victim of bad luck? Maybe not.

Last year, 37.4% of his batted balls were ground balls, 42.1% were fly balls, and 20.4% were line drives. This year, to date, GB% is down to 31.8% while fly balls have increased to 43.8% and, worst of all, LD% is up to 24.5%. Be it mechanics or familiarity, batters are more often able to square up his pitches.

I haven’t seen a lot of his innings, but last night his slider looked terrible most of the time and his fastball kinda flat. If he’s not going to change speeds, it becomes pretty easy for a hitter to just wait on something straight. I want to say this was the same story last year when he slumped.

Bob Melvin Sucks

by nihil67 on Jun 11, 2008 10:27 AM EDT   0 recs

My daughter thought the umpire’s strike calls were the Aflac Duck.

It's like living with a six-year old.

by 4 Corners Fan on Jun 11, 2008 12:07 PM EDT   0 recs

Finally!

Nice to see some offense and see the players actually having fun again. I really really hope that this puts the Dbacks back on a winning track.. My boycott lasted a grand total of one game. Yeah, I turned the tv off once the games got out of hand during the two losses to pittsburg, but I didn’t actually miss an entire game. For some reason, i’ve never been able to not watch practically every single game that I was able to watch on TV. Well except when I had a date or was working of course.

by Zephon on Jun 11, 2008 1:15 PM EDT   0 recs

I had FSN on before I left for work and heard they will replay the game again at noon today for anyone who didn’t catch it either time yesterday.

Myself, after the game got going after the rain delay I was outside on the phone with my boss commiserating about his friend who just found out he has a malignant brain tumor when I heard my sister screaming inside. I didn’t think it would be very courteous to cut off my distraught boss and ditch him for the game and was hoping the D-Backs had done something great like hit with RISP rather than my sister having accidentally cut off her hand or something. Soon and fortunately, I found out my sister still had two hands and the D-Backs had the lead and then some!

by TwinnerA on Jun 11, 2008 1:16 PM EDT   0 recs

CoJack

Just read on AZCentral. com that Tracy will get the start at 1st and Conor Jackson in left field. Okayyyyyyyyy.

by TwinnerA on Jun 11, 2008 4:11 PM EDT   0 recs

That's so crazy

it might work. Be nice to have Tracy, Reynolds, and CoJack all in the game, rather than Burke, Sally, or Romero.

Max Scherzer is all out of bubblegum.

by DbacksSkins on Jun 11, 2008 4:20 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

this is true.

on a lighter note…
i was just watching the fsn replay, and i have to say that the home plate umpire sounds like the aflac duck.

by emilylovesthedbacks on Jun 11, 2008 4:53 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

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