Double plays started by 1b
by foulpole on May 4, 2008 7:58 PM EDT
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PrintDuring today's game thread, we were trying to find the number of double plays started by 1bs.
This link shows that, for '07, the top 10 in the NL were:
| 2007 | Pujols | Albert | STL | NL | 1B | 30 | |||||||||||
| 2007 | Gonzalez | Adrian | SD | NL | 1B | 22 | |||||||||||
| 2007 | LaRoche | Adam | PIT | NL | 1B | 21 | |||||||||||
| 2007 | Helton | Todd | COL | NL | 1B | 18 | |||||||||||
| 2007 | Howard | Ryan J | PHI | NL | 1B | 16 | |||||||||||
| 2007 | Delgado | Carlos | NYN | NL | 1B | 14 | |||||||||||
| 2007 | Loney | James A | LAN | NL | 1B | 12 | |||||||||||
| 2007 | Klesko | Ryan | SF | NL | 1B | 11 | |||||||||||
| 2007 | Young | Dmitri | WAS | NL | 1B | 7 | |||||||||||
| 2007 | Berkman | Lance | HOU | NL | 1B | 7 | |||||||||||
| 2007 | Jacobs | Mike | FLA | NL | 1B | 7 |
CJ had 1 (about 1 every 870 innings) and Tony Clark had 4 (about 1 every 100 innings).
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I get different figures
STL: 25 Double and/or Triple Plays hit to First Baseman Allowed in 2007
That’s all 1B; I think it’s safe to assume Pujols was responsible for the majority, but I’m not sure where the Hardball Times gets the extra ones from. That 25 also include three line-drive double-plays. Of course, otherwise, it takes two or sometimes more people to turn a double-play…
I dunno
You have to do them on a team-by-team basis. IIRC, it did give the same figure of five for the Diamondbacks. I’m not sure how much of it is luck though: so far this year (as noted in the thread), the Cardinals don’t appear to have a single double-play started by their 1B.
by Jim McLennan on May 4, 2008 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Just for kicks, so far this year, according to THT…
2008 Helton Todd COL NL 1B 8
2008 Fielder Prince G MIL NL 1B 5
2008 Lee Derrek CHN NL 1B 4
2008 Gonzalez Adrian SD NL 1B 4
2008 Votto Joey D CIN NL 1B 4
2008 Aurilia Rich SF NL 1B 3
2008 Teixeira Mark ATL NL 1B 3
2008 Delgado Carlos NYN NL 1B 3
2008 Berkman Lance HOU NL 1B 2
2008 LaRoche Adam PIT NL 1B 2
2008 Loney James A LAN NL 1B 2
We don’t have any.
On the other hand...
Back in 2006, according to the Hardball Times stats, Jackson was a perfectly-reasonable seventh, with 11 – the leader [Pujols again] had 18. Has he really got so much worse since?
by Jim McLennan on May 4, 2008 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions
If he hadn't airmailed it like he works for UPS
The boys in Sedona Red slugged it out with a pretty pesky poltergeist, then stayed on to dance the night away with some of the lovely ladies who witnessed the disturbance.
So far, I have missed two maybe three games this year. IMO, he has had four chances (including today’s) so far this year.
I feel that today’s game may also show a good example of some of the weaknesses in “zone rating” defensive stats. There was a groundball hit in our shortstop’s “zone” but did not result in an out. Of course, there was a shift on, so how can you really fault him for that? Then the was a tailor made double play ball hit into our 1b’s zone that did not result in an out. How are those two plays worth the same defensive value?
Two nitpicks,
one, an actual shortstop with decent range has a good shot at making that play. Augie Ojeda is sure-handed, but who are we kidding here?
Two, what do you actually expect from an evaluation system. There are some times when the shift may be on and a player misses the usual in zone play. This will be a negative against them, but over the course of the season, these tend to even out. How do you actually go about evaluating players? Do you keep a little notebook of every single misplay and its result? These systems are all short-hand approximations, but they’re useful because the human memory is so fragile. We cling to things that are particularly memorable and ignore other things.
We need to acknowledge the imperfection of systems like RZR, but not cling to them and use it to discredit any attempt at objective analysis. Like it or not, but there is too much information out there for us to evaluate without metrics. We can use scouting to assess probability, but it fails at assessing actual value. The key is to use defensive analysis in concert with scouting techniques to make accurate player assessments.
Scouting
And...
Of course, a broken-bat blooper like Mark Reynolds’ this afternoon “counts” exactly the same for his batting average as the Fatburger homer. All single measurement systems have limitations. That’s why I put more stock in those that are a combination of factors, such as OPS+.
by Jim McLennan on May 4, 2008 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Of course, a broken-bat blooper like Mark Reynolds’ this afternoon "counts" exactly the same for his batting average as the Fatburger homer. ...That’s why I put more stock in those that are a combination of factors, such as OPS+.
That’s very true. A single has as much value as a bomb in BA. But, a single and a bomb also have the same value in OB% as does a bb. Is a bb really worth as much as either a single or a bomb? And, if you use both OB% and SLG% combined, then are you give credit for that same single/bomb twice? Either result will show up and increase both stats. As far as OPS+, park factors are so out of wack and inconsistant from on site to the next. Some give 3 times the value of the most recent year’s park factor then they do for the season 3 years ago. They also give twice the value on park factor for year two as they do for year three. IMO, ballparks just don’t change that much.
OPS does not account for scoring, driving in runs or base running (leaving out the very positive and/or negative impact of defense).
IMO, all stats have weaknesses.
No real argument there
[ IMO, all stats have weaknesses.]
But some have more weaknesses than others. Stats that largely rely on the performance of others, such as RBI or runs scored, are less reliable than those based more on what the player concerned actually does at the plate. It’s very hard, if not impossible, to come up with one number encompassing all aspects of the game: hitting, base-running and defense, because there is no agreement on how to weight these factors.
I’m not trying to be a jerk so please don’t take it that way and would like to chat with you further on this issue. Does this site have a PM option like that other one?
No…
But my email address is accessible on the left-hand side bar and I welcome comments. :-)
I’m not trying to be an ass.
More than a few people have thown out snarky comments about my level of distaste for CJ’s D over the last few years and have said that I am being unrealistic about defense at 1b.
During the game thread that prompted this post, someone opined that I was severely exaggerating the number of double plays that ML level regular 1bs started. Someone said something about there not being many double plays started at 1b.
So, I spent the time to try and support my opinion that I felt very strongly was correct. . I searched the web to support my position and came up with HTH. Is HTH accurate? Who the hell knows? Are any other sites accurate? Who the hell knows? But I’m still very sure that my position is accurate. There are a lot of double plays started by other 1bs and not by CJ.
How many sites are going to differ on their stats? Who the hell knows? But there is no way that CJ is even close to a major league level 1b at turning double plays.
Of course,
but when have you heard here that one single stat is the be all and end all player evaluation?
Your problem is that when someone evaluates someone as a hitter, you say “but look at their defense, OPS doesn’t count for all those plays they didn’t make”.
HELLO, we know that! What do you actually think you are adding to the conversation with those comments? We understand offense is only part of a player’s contribution. When we just look at someone’s hitting stats, we don’t mean for it to be anything more than that.
You, on the other hand, are very clearly falling into the trap that has led to so many quality major league players being lost in the minors: you focus more on what a player can’t do than what they can do. Even worse, you are so clearly biased in regards to which players you criticize and which ones you praise. Connor makes his first obvious misplay and you start a thread. Reynolds is in the bottom third of third-basemen defense and nary a peep. You continue to insist that Hudson is a “platinum glover” even though he’s starting to lose a step.
You say that all stats have weaknesses and while that’s true, the only real weakness is in the observer. It is possible to look at different values and opinions to gain a more accurate understanding of performance. The observer just has to be smart enough to know where a stats strengths and weakness are and how to use them in concert with one another. I guarantee you it’s a better system than denigrating stats except for the instances when they agree with you. It also doesn’t make you look like as big of a hack with a never-ending axe to grind.
So what's the thesis here?
That CJ is a below average first baseman? I think we all know that. So far, he appears to be getting better and his hitting makes up for plays he gives back.
Would you rather we trade him to San Diego to get Tony Clark back? He of the .200/.294/.339 hitting line on the road the last two years?
And, of course
Jackson was not brought up as a first baseman. He had only 73 games at the position in the minors. Of course, nor did Pujols, but he has improved with experience. His first year at 1B [2004], he had only 13 double-plays started, less than half his tally from last year.
by Jim McLennan on May 4, 2008 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions
The thesis is
if my aunt had balls she would be my uncle.
CoJack is in the lineup for his bat, just like 99% of the other 1B in the league. Won’t be his last bad throw, and we dropped a tough one yesterday. I am also going out on a limb and saying it won’t be the last tough one we drop this year.
It is one game, and we will get back at it tonight. Anyone else thinking CoJack has a good night against Moyer?
by Augie's Army on May 5, 2008 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Too funny
CJ makes his first regular season error in 40 games, and this guy starts a thread about it.
No doubt…...CJ’s error allowed the mets to kick open the door and win the game. And clearly his throwing is the single weakest part of his game.
But why didn’t this guy start a thread for CJ even once for all the good things he’s done this year? I don’t see one thread started by foupole discussing any of the things CJ has done to contribute to the team’s first 21 wins.
Nope, it takes till May 4th till CJ really screws up, and this guy is all over it starting a thread.
What a joke.
by shoewizard on May 4, 2008 10:36 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
I had no idea that there were so many double plays starting at 1B. It just didn’t seem very common to me, but seeing how many Pujols and others have gotten in recent years makes me wonder about our defense over at 1st.
Of course, AZ had tons of chances to add on today long before the miscues came into play. It wouldn’t have come down to the 9th inning if they had hit with RUNNERS IN SCORING POSITION!
I had no idea that there were so many double plays starting at 1B. It just didn’t seem very common to me, but seeing how many Pujols and others have gotten in recent years makes me wonder about our defense over at 1st.
That’s an awful lot of extra outs that those other teams are getting that we are not. Not to mention the rally killing effects of a double play (and the wear and tear that the pitching staff does/doesn’t have to go through).
In our club’s history, IMO, we really haven’t had a solid defensive regular at 1b other than Grace and, while he was still very good when we had him, he was hardly in his prime. I’m not sure why I have recieved more than a few snarky remarks about my expectations of what a solid 1b really is and the importance of being able to make decent throws and turn a double play (let alone the other aspects of solid D at 1st such as consistantly digging out throws in the dirt from IFs etc).
Keep an eye on Howard these next four games. He’s usually a pretty solid defensive 1b.
Howard? You’re kidding, right? He’s one of the WORST 1B in the league.
"There are only two seasons: winter and baseball"
-- Bill Veeck
Well, if Howard is indeed ”...one of the WORST 1B in the league” yet started 16 to CJ’s 1 double plays last year, then what does that say about CJ’s D?
Hey, I’m not arguing CJ is a good 1B… but what it means all the double play stat means is Howard is a superior thrower. Conor has much better range (although he’s not stellar there, either).
"There are only two seasons: winter and baseball"
-- Bill Veeck
Well, getting those other guys out is kinda cool, no?
And, last year, Howard helped to create 30 more outs than CJ did. And Howard is "…one of the WORST 1B in the league"???
Zone ratings:
Ryan Howard: .824 (2005), .832 (2006, 16th in MLB), .806 (2007, 19th in MLB)
Conor Jackson: .824 (2005), .847 (2006, 10th in MLB), .830 (2007, 14th in MLB)
Note that I am NOT arguing that CJ is a good defensive 1B (that’d be stupid). I’m arguing that Howard is lousy. And the numbers don’ t lie. He’s bad.
"There are only two seasons: winter and baseball"
-- Bill Veeck
Has anyone argued that CoJack was a good defensive 1B?
There is a reason he played 18 positions in the minors. The guy is raking and the biggest surprise to our hot start. Hitting the cover off the ball more than makes up for his defensive shortcomings and the majority of the board recognizes that.
Hitting the cover off the ball more than makes up for his defensive shortcomings and the majority of the board recognizes that.
I’m not so sure that he is. How would you rate a single or a double againt a defensive error? How would you add part of a players offensive output against defensive shortcomings? How much value is a Gold Glove level defensive guy worth to his pitching staff? How much value does an OF that consistently hits the cut off man give us? Tell me your thoughts on how we can determine if any player that is a defensive liabilty is truly making it up with the bat. I’m open to new ideas and I’m all ears.
"Defensive liability"
If this is where you think CJ stands, then this conversation is pointless. Conor has average range, good receiving skills and poor throwing skills.
So if you want to dock his offensive contributions knock around 12-15 walks off his on base percentage over the course of a season – i.e. roughly the average number of double plays turned. It shouldn’t come off of hits or slugging because a missed double play isn’t the equivalent of a single. Singles move runners to third and score them from second.
So it’s been a a little over a month and being generous, we can knock off three runs from CoJack’s totals. What do you know, he’s still hitting .339/.406/.574.
Having a gold glover can mean a lot to a pitching staff, but the value added by a gold glove first baseman just isn’t as big as you think it is. Neither is the value an outfielder gives you by consistently hitting the cut off man has for an outfielder that excels in other defensive aspects. Just going back to the other day’s game, when Upton threw it to second there was already no chance of him getting the runner out at the plate. Obviously he was thinking that he had to throw it towards third to prevent the triple. The end result – nothing.
These quantification questions aren’t so hard to look at analytically, it’s just obvious that you don’t really care to look for objective answers. You just want answers that confirm the things you already think you know.
"this conversation is pointless"
I see you are getting it now. :-)
Oops….my bad….I forgot you hate emoticons….. ;)
Dang it…...can’t…....stop…......typing…....smileys….....
I think he has me on ignore
but I keep on typing. It’s a nice way to work out the frustrations of a fruitless summer job search.
Maybe, just maybe, something gets through, but I won’t be holding my breath.
And the numbers don’ t lie
As was mentioned above, BA puts the same value on a 4 run bomb as it does a two out nobody on single. Do those two acts hold the same value? We all know that that’s not true.
OB% gives the same value to a 4 run bomb as a bb. We all know that that’s not true.
OPS adds value to the same hit twice. Huh?
Zone ratings give the same value to a single up the middle with a shifted ss as a blown tailor made double play. We all know that that’s not true.
And the “numbers” aren’t lying? Well, they sure as heck are not telling the whole truth.
They tell more truth
than someone who uses selective memory to accentuate the positives and negatives of players.
I don’t understand all the vitriol you have for OPS. It’s just a shorthand way of evaluating players. It’s better to just look at OBP and SLG separately, which is more often than not implied when these comparisons are made.
What about the plays where Jackson makes an excellent throw to second base but the runner is too fast and/or the middle infielder bluffs the transition? The numbers don’t account for that.
Quit trying to act like your analysis is influenced by anything other than pre-conceived bias about how a good player is supposed to play.
Hope you were watching the game tonight… Howard totally choked away the inning ending DP in the 6th.
"There are only two seasons: winter and baseball"
-- Bill Veeck
Hope you were watching the game tonight… Howard totally choked away the inning ending DP in the 6th.
Yes I was watching and yes I did see that play. It was not very pretty. What surprised me the most about it though was that the score keeper actually charged him with an error. It’s about time that someone “assumed” a double play.
BTW, I feel that 1bs get some of the biggest breaks from the stats. There are many catchable balls thrown in the dirt that a solid ML level 1b should come up with and don’t and the IF gets hung with an E on the play.
BTW, I feel that 1bs get some of the biggest breaks from the stats. There are many catchable balls thrown in the dirt that a solid ML level 1b should come up with and don’t and the IF gets hung with an E on the play.
Couldn’t agree more… and so glad we finally found something to agree on!
"There are only two seasons: winter and baseball"
-- Bill Veeck
glad we finally found something to agree on!
Me too.
And those plays are a double edged sword. Not only do they make the IF’s numbers worse then they should be but they also make the 1b’s better then they should be. And the difference is much greater for the teams with poor 1bs vs. the great 1bs as the poor 1bs will do it much more often.
The Numbers That Matter
BA .343
OBP .421
SLG .590
HR 5
OPS 1.011
and he is nearly half way to his RBI total for 2006. CoJack is never going to be confused a Gold Glove Winner but if he keeps raking at the dish, I’ll be a happy fan. I have been brutal on CoJack the last couple of years calling him Sid Bream minus the glove. The fact is he is playing like an All-Star 1B after a month. He threw one ball into LF and it isn’t going to be his last bad throw this year. CoJack is going to drive in a lot more than he costs us.
Keep in mind that the difference between a .300 hitter and a .250 hitter (over the course of a full season) is about one hit a week.
I like to see ballplayers that bring something to the park every day. Hitters do slump, it happens. But when a position player brings solid defense most days of the week, then, IMO, that’s very cool and they can make up that one hit over the course of the week.
And, of course...
According to these DP stats, the difference between Pujols and Jackson at first is, at the very most, as in 2007, about one additional out per week [if we assume the DPs not turned still became single outs somewhere]. It’s considerably less than that in previous years and is exactly zero this season…
the difference between Pujols and Jackson at first is, at the very most, as in 2007, about one additional out per week
Ok, let’s leave out any other defensive plays that Albert will make and CJ will not for now. If we just use the difference in double plays and totally leave out the value that that has regarding the pitching staff, killing a rally and, basically, erasing a hit and try to put that into OPS values then can we assume that the addtional out per week comes out to about the same value as one more or less hit per week?
If we use that measure then we would need to subtract about .050 from CJ’s BA, OB% and SLG% while adding about .050 to Albert’s. So, for ‘07 that would make the numbers look like this:
CJ .234/.318/.437/.755
Albert .377/.479/.618/1.097
That comes out to a .342 OPS difference. That looks pretty big to me.
Here is where I point out
That the 2007 NL Gold Glove winner at 1B, Derek Lee, started just five double-plays in all of 2007. And 33 games into this season, Pujols has yet to start a single one.
There just seems to be far too much random noise in the figures here, to be able to draw any meaningful statistical conclusion – no matter how much you may want to.
I never see the complete
logic in the difference between a .250 hitter and a .300 hitter being one hit a week. I know the math works out but over the course of a season and a career breaks seem to even out. For every frozen rope that should be a hit that gets robbed, a broken bat single falls.
Good hitters make solid contact that leads to more hits. I mean there is a reason guys like Pete O’Brien hit .250 and guys like Mark Grace and Tony Gwynn hit .300+. It isn’t just they got a little luckier on a weekly basis for X amount of years. They were better hitters and the averages reflect that.
Part of my point is that the additional value that solid defense brings to the park every day can easily be compared to one more/less hits/week.
BTW, IMO, both Grace and Gwynn were very solid defensive ball players and to not include that as a big part of their value to their teams is a pretty big disservice.
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