Billy Beane gasp and Bullpen Management

by dahlian on May 30, 2008 6:43 PM EDT

I brought up this topic a bit in yesterday's gameday thread, but I just wanted to make another post fleshing the details out a bit when I talk about what the Diamondbacks could learn from their philosophy.

First of all, to cut out the chorus of knee jerk responses, this isn't a bullpen by committee. The A's have a set closer in Huston Street who is their best pitcher. They use him in the most important situations. The biggest difference is that they have an organizational philosophy that all of their players can recite about what a "save" is to their team.

I first noticed then when I was watching a post game interview with Eric Chavez. He said something to the effect of " We had the lead going into the 8th inning when the 3,4,5 hitters were coming up so that was the save."

Don't you see the elegance in this approach? I think even Foulpole would agree that saves are a wonky stat - all saves are valued the same whether it's a one-run lead a three-run lead or if you're facing the bottom of the order compared to the bottom of the order. If you save your closer for strict "save" situations, most of the time that means they won't be used in the situations with the highest leverage. Also, the great thing about this approach that many "sabr" bullpen approaches lack is that it still provides that routine and predictability that most relievers cite as an important facet of success. You can see the "save" coming from an inning away and you aren't forced to have your number one reliever constantly get up and down adding to their fatigue.

As a young organization with a strong farm system, it wouldn't be that hard to implement this philosophy. Lyon, too, should be able to adjust to this approach given that it was less than a year ago that he filled that eighth inning role. We shouldn't be losing these close games with our best reliever never getting off the bench.

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Have to agree

With what has been said but at the same time Melvin seems to believe Lyon, Pena, Cruz and Qualls all capable of getting the ‘save’ as he has used all of them in pressure situations. Out of interest would you rate Lyon as our best reliever?

So...time for another drink then?

by Wimb on May 30, 2008 6:54 PM EDT reply actions

I'm beginning to, yes

Lost in the worries last off-season about Lyon’s cratering K rate was that Pena’s K rate wasn’t all that impressive either.

So far this season Lyon has answered a lot of questions. His 18 Ks are the equal of Pena’s who has thrown 2 2/3 innings more and his 1.00 WHIP and 9:1 K:BB rate are by far the best on the staff. It seems as if the strikeouts have finally caught back up with the stuff which is still excellent.

Also, the 1.00 WHIP and two (!!!) walks basically cinches it in my mind that Lyon should have been the guy to come in with a bases loaded jam. The puzzling thing about that decision is that it’s not even as if that BoMel could have saved him for a save. If we had gotten the lead in the bottom of the eighth, Lyon still could have gotten the save in the ninth. If we didn’t get the lead, there would be no more save situations so you’re still better off with your best pitcher available in there.

And in case anyone was wondering: five times in 2007 Lyon pitched more than one inning. He didn’t allow a run in any of those appearances. There’s no reason he can’t go more than one inning.

by dahlian on May 30, 2008 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Lyon is our best reliever no doubt.

Brandon Webb, that's all I'm going to say.

by srdmad on May 30, 2008 7:06 PM EDT reply actions

Speaking of Billy Beane...

CarGon was called up today (among 8 other roster moves for the A’s today) and has a double in his first ML AB.

by snakecharmer on May 30, 2008 8:44 PM EDT reply actions

Yay!

::praying to self that CarGo won’t turn into The Player jr.::

Max Scherzer is all out of bubblegum.

by DbacksSkins on May 30, 2008 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Thinking of the future?

Lyon with lots of saves = Type A free-agent = multiple 2009 draft picks
Lyon without lots of saves = nothing

I do agree with the general principle: I think I said on Thursday night, as Peña prepared to face the heart of the Giants order, that this was the save situation, right there. There’s no doubt that the save is badly flawed, for all the reasons you specified. But there’s no way it’ll ever change, because it punches the late-inning reliever’s ticket to a juicy contract. You might as well try to devalue the home-run, which would be just un-American.

This said, I don’t think there’s that big a gulf between Peña, Lyon and Qualls as far as being our “best” reliever goes – you could even conceivably throw Cruz in the mix, given his ferocious strikeout potential. But this year opponents are batting .250 off Peña, .235 off Lyon and .227 against Qualls, hardly a world of hurt.

The huge plus that Lyon has brought to the mound so far this year is excellent control, with only two walks in 22 innings. I think that’s as much a statistical fluke as the absence of home-runs was in 2007: his career rate is 2.60 BB/9, not the 0.82 BB/9 he has managed to date. So I don’t think that will last, and if you add in the extra 0.20 walks per inning I’d expect from Lyon, his 1.00 WHIP drops right back to the same range as the figures so far by Qualls (1.23) and Peña (1.26).

This flexibility is actually a strength, not a weakness, giving us coverage for all situations and eventualities. Lyon has closed three days in a row? We can send Peña out there instead, rather than having to do what the Brewers did with Gagne – and we all know how that worked out! If only one of the three were a lefty, I’d say we had pretty much the ideal situation, but I don’t have too much a problem with their usage – except the over usage, and that was to some extent a victim of necessity – by Melvin thus far.

by Jim McLennan on May 31, 2008 4:33 PM EDT reply actions

I can't see them signing Lyon

JIm maybe you can enlighten me but I’m not sure how they classify relievers in the type A/type B system, what stats do they use to judge it? I’m only thinking that a guy with 40 odd saves in 2 seasons wouldn’t be a class A on saves alone?

I’d take the draft picks and run because as much as I like Lyon there is no point us paying out $8 million for a guy to close out games, heck if this past month has shown us anything it shows us how a closer can be made utterly redundant if there isnt runs on the board, or if there are too many runs on the board! I’d much rather have $8 million invested into second base, scoring runs.

In the unlikely event that he does stay how much do you think it’ll take to keep him here? given his injury history and the fact he’s been with us quite a while I’d image he’ll give us some kind of discount. I’d think 4 years at $30 million would probably be a good estimate.

So...time for another drink then?

by Wimb on Jun 2, 2008 9:00 AM EDT reply actions

Relievers

The five categories used are: Total games (total relief appearances + 2 * total starts), IP (weighted slightly less than other categories), Wins + Saves, IP/H ratio, K/BB and ERA. Then, the AL reliever with, say, the fifth-lowest ERA in the last two years gets a fifth-place ranking in that category. The rankings across the categories for each player are averaged (a five, a 10, and a one average out to a 5.33 rank) and are then converted into a 100-point scale. That’s the Elias Player ranking, and the top 20% are classed as Type A. So it’s not just the number of saves, but other factors too. However, if you don’t get any saves, you’re effectively punting that category, which makes it VERY hard to be in the top 20%.

I think you’re probably very close to the mark as far as his salary goes. Valverde, with one full season as a regular closer, got $4.7m in arbitration – as we weren’t willing to pay that, I think that shows the team knows spending big for a closer is a waste of money. We have cheaper alternatives – in particular, Tony Peña – available, so we’ll just let Lyon walk and take the draft picks.

by Jim McLennan on Jun 2, 2008 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions