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Diamondbacks 1, Marlins 3 - Everybody's got to lose sometime...

Record: 28-18. Pace: 99-63. Change on last season: +3.

And the winner of this month's Nostradamus Award for prescience goes to UofAZGrad, who led off the Gameday Thread with the following, remarkably astute prediction: "While there is always a chance that Webb will get lit up (happens occasionally to best pitchers), my guess is that Webb’s first loss will result from lack of offense. Hence, my prediction: Webb gets 4 or more tonight then he gets a win or a no-decision." Spot on the mark there: four runs from the offense would have left Webb at 10-0. But it was not to be. In honor of us playing the Marlins, it appears our hitters once again went to the plate wielding fishing-rods.

For the offense sputtered even worse than on Tuesday night, the only tally we managed today being Stephen Drew's solo homer to lead off the fourth - indeed, the rest of the lineup, not named Drew, managed a grand total of exactly one hit. That was a double by Chris Snyder, but since we were 0-for-4 with runners in scoring position, that wasn't much help. Three of those four at-bats came in the eighth, where pinch-hitter Augie Ojeda walked to lead off the inning, then reach second on a passed ball. After Young flew out, Drew singled, but Ojeda got a bad read on the ball and had to hold at third. And that was where he stayed, Hudson and Jackson both going down swinging.

They weren't exactly alone. We fanned eleven times in all, making 24 over the first two games of the series and the sixth time in the past eleven games we've reached double-digits there. Over that time, we've struck out more than twice as many times as we've walked [97:48 in total]. Today, Byrnes and Reynolds, who seemed locked in a desperate battle to out-suck each other of late, combined to go 0-for-8 with five K's. Over the past month, Reynolds is hitting .174 [16-for-92], while Byrnes is at .143 [13-for-91]. Between them, they have 13 walks and no less than sixty strikeouts during that period. At least we will have Tracy back shortly, so that should give us a left-handed alternative to Reynolds; but after the false dawn of Byrnes' homer last week, he has only one hit in fourteen at-bats, so nothing much has changed there.

The Republic, however, reports that Byrnes aggravated his hamstrings once more. According to Melvin, "He's a guy that can play hurt as much as anybody we have here. But he's still not 100 percent yet, and part of his game is running. We won't see all of Eric Byrnes until he's able to use all his weapons." Here, Bob - let me correct that for you. What you meant to say was:
  " We won't see all of Eric Byrnes until he's able to use all his weapons."
For just because you can play hurt, doesn't mean you should. Over the past month, I think it should be clear to just about everyone, that Byrnes operating at less than 100% has done more harm than good for the team.

As in the opener, this wasted another solid outing and a quality start by our rotation. This time, it was Brandon Webb who took the tough loss, tasting defeat for the first time this year, despite allowing three runs over seven innings. He fanned seven and walked none, but the Marlins were just very efficient, leaving only three men on base all game. The Marlins took the lead after a triple from Luis Gonzalez - his first since last June and he was likely helped to third by Young - and a suicide-squeeze bunt from Treanor. However, the next batter rendered that somewhat pointless by blasting a solo homer, only the third allowed by Webb all season. Those two plate-appearances provided all the offense that the Marlins would need to get the win.

280521128_diamondbacks_marlins_74988302_live_medium
[Click to enlarge, in new window]
Master of his domain: Stephen Drew, +19.8%
God-emperor of suck: Conor Jackson, -15.7%
Dishonorable mentions: Byrnes and Hudson, -13.2%

Understandably, in the light of such a weak performance from the Diamondbacks, attendance in the Gameday Thread was light. Present were UofAZGrad, Muu, DbacksSkins, hotclaws, Wimb, Zephon, luckycc, Azreous, TwinnerA, dahlian, foulpole, unnamedDBacksfan, Augie's Army, LucaMaz3, kishi, SongBird, IndyDBack and  srdmad. Particular credit to Muu, who not only had the most comments of anyone today, but managed to put everything into the right context., by telling us how he was robbed at gunpoint today. Suddenly, losing a baseball game hardly seems like it matters much.

Interesting piece at fangraphs.com, comparing Webb and Haren, and their performances so far. The key difference found is that Webb tends to get better in "high-leverage" situations - that's plate appearances that provide the biggest swings in Win Probability. With the usual warning about small sample size [in this case, the high-leverage group covers only 48 trips to the dish], Webb seems to thrive in such situations: there, opponents have a stunning line of .100/.208/.175. Haren, on the other hand, seems to pitch much better when the game is not on the line. As author Eric Seidman puts it, "Give me Webb over Haren with one game to make or break a season, but give me Webb and Haren over other twosomes, at least right now, with two games on the line." Well, let's certainly hope for a bit more run support in Haren's cause tomorrow.

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Am I the only person

that’s beginning to think that BoMel and the training staff are only running Byrnes out there every day to save face? Not just saving face on the signing, but to save face with their previous decision to let him play through it.

I can’t believe that we’ve already wasted a quarter of a season’s worth of left field production on this bullshit and I’m beginning to think that they’re too afraid to cut their losses now and admit that they were wrong. The sad part is that I’ve already got the scapegoat worked out in my mind should this team miss out on October baseball. I knew that I would be disappointed with Byrnes throughout the course of his contract, but come on baseball gods, now you’re just rubbing it in!!!

On the road –
Byrnes – .188/.253/.319
Reynolds – .147/237/.294

It’s hard to score with a six man lineup. Upton too has had his struggles on the road (.194/.267/.373), but he gets a pass because his .889 OPS is tied with Drew for the team lead. That’s right, don’t look now but Drew’s .545 slugging leads the team by 45 points.

by dahlian on May 22, 2008 1:55 AM EDT   0 recs

Perspective

You can quote road troubles and losing record outside our division all day long but the facts remain the same: (1) we are tied with the Angeles for the largest lead in a division, (2) we have the best record in the National League, (3) Our pitching is solid in spite of the heartbreaking losses of late and (4) Its May. BoMel is going to play Byrnes because right now he can afford to do so. He is going to give Eric more than his fair share of chances to break out of this slump but don’t expect any drastic action unless and until the playoffs are on the line. It sucks when one imagines that we could build a huge lead if we sat Byrnes and got more production from someone else but that’s not going to happen right now.

But the fact is that we are still in control right now and hopefully this is just a valley to be followed by another peak very soon. The most important thing is that are pitching is great. The runs will start to come again when the more consistent guys (Jackson, Upton, Drew) pick up their pace. Reynolds’ struggles are troubling but Tracey gives an option at 3rd base once he is brought back up. The fact is that we can absorb Byrnes’ suck as long as the other guys play to form and our pitching maintains its excellence. It’s frustrating to think in those terms but it’s the truth.

As A-Rod and Josh Hamilton have shown in Texas, one great hitter isn’t going to win you many games. The opposite is true that one shitty hitter isn’t going to lose you many. It helps to read Purple Row and see the maddening frustration of fans watching a good team sink to the bottom of the MLB with a manager and ownership who refuses to make any dramatic moves to stop the descent. Our frustration with BoMel is entirely speculative (we would have an even bigger margin for 1st place if he did this, that or the other thing).

As should be apparent by now, I am a Melvin apologist and will continue to be until we are out of first and then I will show the leadership of Mayor Quimby and flip flop. One particularly sick fact to keep in mind. As of today, Webb is on track for 30 wins and Haren, Owings and Johnson are all on track for 18 wins.

by UofAZGrad on May 22, 2008 5:26 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Perspective changes quickly
You can quote road troubles and losing record outside our division all day long but the facts remain the same: (1) we are tied with the Angeles for the largest lead in a division, (2) we have the best record in the National League, (3) Our pitching is solid in spite of the heartbreaking losses of late and (4) It’s May.

D Backs in May:
8-10, 76 RS4.22 R/G
666 PA, .253/.338/.387 .725 OPS 70 walks, 142 K’s

They are playing horrible baseball right now, and it’s been going on for more than just a few days.


BoMel is going to play Byrnes because right now he can afford to do so. He is going to give Eric more than his fair share of chances to break out of this slump but don’t expect any drastic action unless and until the playoffs are on the line. It sucks when one imagines that we could build a huge lead if we sat Byrnes and got more production from someone else but that’s not going to happen right now.

I couldn’t disagree with this any more if I tried. (I’m not trying very hard…..lol). IMO, other than the obvious of playing their bench and giving guys regular rest to keep them fresh, they should put the best possible lineup out there every single day, and try their best to win every game. If the organization really thinks they have games to play with, i.e., they can afford to lose some games by not playing their best options, that is the ultimate in hubris, and is likely to bite them in the arse quite hard.


But the fact is that we are still in control right now and hopefully this is just a valley to be followed by another peak very soon. The most important thing is that are pitching is great. The runs will start to come again when the more consistent guys (Jackson, Upton, Drew) pick up their pace. Reynolds’ struggles are troubling but Tracey gives an option at 3rd base once he is brought back up. The fact is that we can absorb Byrnes’ suck as long as the other guys play to form and our pitching maintains its excellence. It’s frustrating to think in those terms but it’s the truth.

A lot of opinion dressed up as “fact” and “truth” here. ;)
I agree there will be peaks and valley’s. Last year was ample evidence of that. And it’s true we all get caught up in whatever moment we happen to be in. But unless you believe with all of your heart that the Dodgers will just roll over and die for us, and not dare to give us a run for the division, thinking the team can absorb Byrnes’ suck as long as the other guys play to form
is naive at best, dangerous at worst.

Byrnes needs to go on the DL, rest his hammies, and come back in 15-20 days with his head screwed on right. The team isn’t going to be any worse off, and it just might be better for that period of time without him.

Please put Eric Byrnes on the DL

by shoewizard on May 22, 2008 8:11 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

If I were Czar

Look, if it were up to me I would put Byrnes on the DL or bench him in favor of Salazar or a AAA prospect. But it isn’t up to me, it’s up to BoMel (and maybe I’m being naive but I hope this decision isn’t coming down from ownership). I’m an impatient guy and I would make an impatient manager so I would “put the best possible lineup out there every single day” which right now does not include Byrnes or Reynolds (I would being playing Ojeda or Burke right now at third to see who can produce on a day-to-day basis).

But BoMel is going in a different direction and I defer to him as knowing things I do not know and taking into account variables I am not aware of or don’t accord the proper weight (like perhaps the clubhouse’ sentiment for Byrnes and the backlash that would be created if it seems BoMel didn’t give him a fair chance). I give BoMel this deference because of the factors I listed above. BoMel is betting on Byrnes to pull out of this and he obviously doesn’t agree that the DL would help so I evaluated his gamble in light of the D-Backs current situation and all things considered its a risk the team can afford to make right now.

Of course the organization believes it has games to play with. It’s taking the long view on the season. The goal is to get Byrnes on track and productive at the plate. It’s not hubris, it’s patience. Now, I am taking a leap of faith that they are making this decision because they honestly believe its the best baseball decision in the long run (and not pressure due to EB’s contract or “face of the franchise” status). And even if their intentions are pure, their reasoning could be wrong and we will have wasted opportunities and games trying to get Byrnes up to snuff. But if they are right, then the bumps in the road will be forgotten and the team will be fine. I am just recognizing that this strategy is a lot less risky when we are in first place and have excellent pitching then if we were the Dodgers or the Mets and scrambling to stay in the mix.

As for our terrible May, it sucks but every team in the League has had a bad stretch so far including the now-on-a-roll Red Sox and Cubs. I haven’t seen any reason to believe that this stretch isn’t a temporary valley like we had last year and every other team has experienced this year. Hitters slump as individuals and as a team sometimes but we have good hitters and they will come around. The key is the pitching, as long as it continues like it is, we will make the playoffs. So give BoMel a break, he is managing a first-place team and he thinks it is a wise investment to keep giving Byrnes At-Bats. Until our lead is compromised, I trust he is smarter than me on how to run the team.

by UofAZGrad on May 22, 2008 2:16 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Good points

I’m not doing a Melvin bash here. I believe these decisions are done by a group process. It’s not up to Melvin alone. It’s not up to JB alone. Although JB is clearly the boss, and has the final say on ALL roster decisions, he doesn’t make decisions in a vacuum, and the advice and opinions of Melvin and the coaches weigh heavily for him.

But your points about the clubhouse backlash Melvin might have to deal with are valid topics for consideration, most certainly. I still don’t agree though. He’s not fully healthy, and it’s affecting his play, and he’s hurting the team. It’s just that simple. Occam’s razor….forest from trees…..etc…etc….. I don’t know why they can’t see the obvious. In this case, as much as I might not know or understand about the clubhouse dynamics, it’s pretty clear those factors are getting weighted too much.

They’ll do much better letting him rest and get treatment for two straight weeks….. get him as fully healthy as possible, then a few games on rehab assignment to “get it together”, and he’ll be “good as new”.....

or at least be able to put up a .750 OPS….which at this point, would be just fine by me.

Please put Eric Byrnes on the DL

by shoewizard on May 22, 2008 5:27 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

What if......

Tracey isn’t able to come back and perform at the level we need him? What point do we start thinking trade? Do we suck it up with Reynolds and Byrnes? We can get away with maybe one of them in the lineup but definitely not both of them. A couple of 3B who will be free agents at the end of year

Hank Blaylock
Joe Crede

Crede would come at a lower price as he is blocking Josh Fields and not the player Blaylock is. Would these guys be an upgrade? Let’s hope Tracey comes back hitting.

by Augie's Army on May 22, 2008 2:38 AM EDT   0 recs

I hope Tracey comes back strong

I like Tracey a lot but I look forward to seeing him back in the lineup with a sense of disappointment. Mark Reynolds got his break when Tracey and others went down to injury. Special K was inconsistent but extraordinarily valuable in our run last year. His 2007 performance earned him a spot on the roster this year regardless of Tracey’s status and I’ve watched him slowly lose it in the last six weeks. Unless Mark breaks out of his slump in a big way and starts racking up homers along with his inevitable strikeouts then he needs to move over for a proven left-handed hitter. I wish Reynolds would rise to the challenge, he has to know he is playing for his right to stay in the Show, but I haven’t seen him do it. And if he can’t respond to the pressure in May, how is he going to respond to more pressure in October (in fact we have a small sample answer as he dropped over 100 points for each AVG/OBP/SLG in the 2007 postseason).

by UofAZGrad on May 22, 2008 5:43 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm not worried about Mark in October

any more than I’m worried about him right now. I don’t think there’s much of a difference between the regular season and postseason—the pitching is just better in the postseason, that’s all.

Max Scherzer is all out of bubblegum.

by DbacksSkins on May 22, 2008 11:08 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Matt Murton

He’s 26, cheap and the Cubs have done everything but flat out say that he’ll never be even a back up player on their team. Murton also has a career OPS+ eight points higher than Byrnes (in 844 at bats) and is currently hitting .360/.467/.450 with the AAA Iowa Cubs. He would be a better left fielder than EB right now and quite probably two years from now. At the very least would be a competent platoon part to go along with Salazar.

Exit strategy. We need an exit strategy!!!

by dahlian on May 22, 2008 2:43 AM EDT   0 recs

Ouch

Hope you’re ok MUU :(

As much as I want to panic (The PTA has disbanded!!!) I hardly think 2 losses, by 1 run and 2 runs is anything to lose that much sleep over. The one thing that worries me, and seemingly everyone else here, is the lack of production from left field and from 3rd. Special K and Bam Bam just aren’t up to it right now and Eric especially just needs to head to the DL, get Salazar in the team and spot him with Nixon. I agree with Jim about playing hurt and just as Chris Rock once said, “You can drive a car with your feet but it doesnt mean it’s a good idea”

Give the guy 2 weeks to clear his head, rest his hammies and then see what he can do, better players then Eric Byrnes have gone onto the 15 day DL and their teams have done just fine.

So...time for another drink then?

by Wimb on May 22, 2008 6:28 AM EDT   0 recs

Good point

The Cubs went on a tear when Soriano was out.

by UofAZGrad on May 22, 2008 7:08 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Byrnes to DL is the best choice

Wimb sums it up best. Byrnes needs to go on the DL. It’s the only chance he has to get healthy and right his ship. The team surely isn’t going to miss him at this point.

by shoewizard on May 22, 2008 7:46 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Good points by all

It’s hardly time to panic, but the club does need to address some issues – okay, just one issue right now, and that is to place Popup on the DL. Like shoewizard said, the club CAN afford to miss him for the next few weeks, so why not do it before it’s too late?

by IndyDBack on May 22, 2008 8:24 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

"BETTER PLAYERS than Eric Byrnes"??!

::Jaw drops::

I was unaware of the existence of these players!

Max Scherzer is all out of bubblegum.

by DbacksSkins on May 22, 2008 11:03 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I believe that they are largely theoretical at the moment, though scientists are working to prove the possibility of their existence.

"Look, I'm not a financial expert or anything, but I'm pretty sure that a zeppelin is an excellent investment opportunity."

by kishi on May 22, 2008 12:06 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Hmmm.... I see.

Carlos Quentin is the new Dark Matter.

Max Scherzer is all out of bubblegum.

by DbacksSkins on May 22, 2008 12:09 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm fine thanks ^^

But I must confess yesterday was a really tough day… everything went wrong for me…
Not only was assaulted, had my problems at home too, dbacks (webb) lost a 3-1 fucking game and my soccer team (São Paulo FC) lost his spot in the Libertadores semi-finals by surrending a score at the last minute of the game, the final score? SPFC 1 X 3 Fluminense… (if the score stays 2×1, we were in)
for those who dont know, the Libertadores is the S.America of the UEFA champions league… and we are the team with more tradition at this championship here on Brazil (we won it 3 times, what gave us 3 passports to play the world championship finals… we won all of them)
so, it was one of the most heartbreaking losses we ever had… I still cant believe it happened…
what a day to forget…

- The Question is: What is manah-manah?
- The Question is: Who cares!?

by Muu on May 22, 2008 11:32 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Sorry bout your football club. :-\

If it makes you feel any better, the last two games being excepted, you’ve still got 4, probably 5, more months of baseball and the best team in the NL?

Max Scherzer is all out of bubblegum.

by DbacksSkins on May 22, 2008 11:44 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

From ESPN:
Over the past five games, the Diamondbacks are 1-for-40 the first time through the order with 14 strikeouts.

Ugh.

by IndyDBack on May 22, 2008 8:52 AM EDT   0 recs

Good find

Remember the days when the D backs used to score first?

Please put Eric Byrnes on the DL

by shoewizard on May 22, 2008 9:29 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Errrr.....

Correction:

Remember the days when the D backs used to score first?

Max Scherzer is all out of bubblegum.

by DbacksSkins on May 22, 2008 11:05 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I think

my grandpa told me about once…..

You can stand under my umbrella

by unnamedDBacksfan on May 22, 2008 2:14 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

And this one time, okay lots of times, they would score first, often and last. Ah, those were the good old days, my friends.

by TwinnerA on May 22, 2008 2:23 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Lesson of yesterday's game:

You cannot stop Brandon Webb. You can only control his hitters.

Max Scherzer is all out of bubblegum.

by DbacksSkins on May 22, 2008 12:25 PM EDT   0 recs

Also

interesting to note that we haven’t been shutout this year. ::Knocks wood:: This game, and that equally-awful 3-1 Haren loss to Lilly and the Cubs, are as close as we’ve come.

Max Scherzer is all out of bubblegum.

by DbacksSkins on May 22, 2008 3:16 PM EDT   0 recs

way to jinx us, Skins.

"There are only two seasons: winter and baseball"
-- Bill Veeck

by njjohn on May 22, 2008 10:08 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

ah-Ha!

thought I saw something over here!

You can stand under my umbrella

by unnamedDBacksfan on May 22, 2008 10:24 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah I know.

I knocked on wood, but it wasn’t enough, apparently. Sorry everyone, this game was my fault.

Max Scherzer is all out of bubblegum.

by DbacksSkins on May 22, 2008 10:30 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

The whole time, I was blaming you.

"Look, I'm not a financial expert or anything, but I'm pretty sure that a zeppelin is an excellent investment opportunity."

by kishi on May 23, 2008 3:12 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah, that was a pretty hideous game, too.

I may find some time this weekend to commit seppuku.

Max Scherzer is all out of bubblegum.

by DbacksSkins on May 23, 2008 12:19 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Webb and Haren

I thought the Fangraphs analysis of Webb vs Haren reflected exactly waht I had been noticing – Haren is just as good as Webb, until he gets in a little trouble, then the roof caves in (ok, maybe that’s a little strong). Once he gets out of that inning, he’s back to domination – but he always seems to have an inning or two where he gets in trouble, and he ALWAYS seems to give up a run or two in those innings.

Maybe it’s sample size, and he’s certainly still very effective, but when he gets runners on base, I always think “damn, they’ll score now”. Whereas when guys get on base against Webb I’m always surprised when they score…

by Craig from Az on May 22, 2008 3:50 PM EDT   0 recs

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