he’s not as bad as his last 3 weeks, but look at those numbers over his last 400 times to the plate folks. Get used to it, cuz it just won’t get much better than that. A little maybe, but not much.

Really, shoe w? It wont get much better than, what, an 85 OPS+? When Dbacks Skins confides his wish that EB play like an All Star ( even if it proves Skins wrong), I believe him. When you imply the same, I get a decidedly mixed message. Not saying you dance in your underwear over Eric’s struggles, but your unsolicited presence here makes you appear quite invested in his failure to make good on the contract (much the same way I’m invested in the failure of other FO policies I dont like). What else explains your eagerness to trumpet these projections so forcefully, based on such shoddy analysis?

Clearly there are MANY MANY MANY people that STILL don’t get it…….despite all the obvious evidence.

Havent you heard my ignorant, passive fan base lustily booing his every at bat? We ALL ALL ALL get that Byrnes sucks, quite apart from your quasiscientific projections gleaned from the conveniently recent past and all too bloody obvious present. What all of us fail to fall for is your “case closed” petulance regarding his expected play going forward, based as it is largely on the typical second half swoon and injured 2008 hammys. Your projection might play out, like anybody else’s, but for a guy who lectures others about unrepresentative samples, your demeanor and methodology here seem, respectively, holier than John Ashcroft and swiss cheese.

Eric Byrnes has never been more than a league average hitter over an entire season at any point in his career.

To state the obvious myself (since here you chose not to), EB’s exceeded 100 OPS+ in three of five yrs with 400 ABs, which incl consecutive 108 & 111 seasons. Your pathological distaste for the contract (which, to a lesser degree, I actually share) evidently gives one license to misstate rationalize the facts a bit….p.s. – you can spare me the Average for a leftfielder “clarification” [rolls eyes] – your self serving bias has already been let out of the bag.

If you don’t think that his last 400 at bats, even if spread over two seasons, is relevant to trying to get a handle on what he is going to in the future than I really don’t know how to communicate with you.

[Please Insert one SSS* here] Nobody said it wasnt relevant. But there’s a belief here – at least among some Dbacks fans on the board – that Byrnes isnt destined to suffer thru three consecutive sub 90 OPS+ seasons, OK? And you are put on notice that it – like yours – is a valid, educated belief.

Three feet from Jeff Moorad? Gosh, you’re such a player ;-)

SSS= shoe strawman scolding

So your first post back on this site in quite a while is a personal attacked disguised as a rebuttal? You have got to be kidding. But I’ll play along for just one post. I know that what follows from you will be a gross distortion of every thing I say, and will be chock full of clever “comebacks”, because you are indeed a clever writer. I’ll give you that.

your unsolicited presence here

Huh? Whose presence here is solicited? Is an engraved invitation from Jim required? You make it sound as if I’m unwelcome on this site. Jim has never indicated any such thing to me. Sadly, the same cannot be said for everyone posting in this thread. Some of us manage not to get ourselves banned from blogs and message boards.

What else explains your eagerness to trumpet these projections so forcefully,

I have explained my motivation numerous times. The entire thought process that went behind the extension was faulty. My reasoning for why I believe that was given at the time of the extension, and it was sound and correct. It is my hope that by highlighting the faulty processes, similar mistakes can be avoided in the future.

Havent you heard my ignorant, passive fan base lustily booing his every at bat? We ALL ALL ALL get that Byrnes sucks, quite apart from your quasiscientific projections gleaned from the conveniently recent past and all too bloody obvious present.

Quasiscientific? Ok…fair enough. I don’t do projections for a living. However I do statisical projections based on fairly standard and accepted projection methods, and the projections I do have been posted in advance both here and at DBBP. Futhermore, my projections are usually pretty much in line with what you might see from some of the well known projections sites, although there are of course outliers.

It’s not ALL about statistical projections, or performance projections of course. As I have discussed up thread, and many times in many places, roster construction, payroll construction, organizational depth chart….all played a role in evaluating the extension at the time it was given. THOSE reasons were all just as compelling as any statistical performance projections for not giving out that extension. And almost everyone one of them has been shown to be true.

What all of us fail to fall for is your "case closed" petulance regarding his expected play going forward, based as it is largely on the typical second half swoon and injured 2008 hammys.

Yeah….see this is what I am talking about. While your phrasiology is indeed quite clever, (you are a good writer), this is a strawman. You make the FALSE assumption/accusation that my projections are based on his last 400 bats. This seems to be your central theme of your post. According to you, while I preach sample size…..I don’t practice it. But of course this is not true. As usual, you use your considerable writing skills to obscure and obfuscate the truth, for whatever purposes….only you know.

So lets look at the truth here, and dispense with falsehoods.
In the case of Eric Byrnes, my projection pre season for him was:

152 G, 662 PA’s, .262/.324/.439, .763 OPS 22 HR, 93 R, 85 RBI 48 BB, 94 K’s

So far this year he is hitting 36 G, 136 PA .220/.282/.367. 3 HR 15 RBI

Coincidentally, this morning I was working on his “Rest of Year” projection, at the request of a friend, and for the rest of the season (IOW, from here on out) I came up with

105 G, 452 PA .259/.320/.424 13 HR, 54 RBI

The combined season ending line comes out

141 G, 615 PA, .249/.310/.409 .718 OPS, 16 HR, 69 RBI 43 BB 85 K

I was also requested to forecast 2009 and 2010

2009: 136 G, 581 PA, .255/.313/.412, .725 OPS 17 HR 70 RBI 40 BB 84 K
2010: 122 G, 512 PA, .249/.308/.394 .703 OPS 14 HR, 59 RBI, 36 BB, 77 K

SO…..................

When I wrote up thread:

If you don’t think that his last 400 at bats, even if spread over two seasons, is relevant to trying to get a handle on what he is going to in the future than I really don’t know how to communicate with you.

Clearly I did not mean that we should ONLY look at the last 400 at bats. As usual, that is a misrepresentation and distortion of what I have said. I’m saying the last 400 at bats are PART of the overall projection. Obviously the last 400 at bats are not going to IMPROVE his projection. Yes, it is a quite selective begin and end point to put so much focus on his numbers since the extension. Clearly it is done for rhetorical purposes. After all….this is the main fulcrum point of the discussion, is it not? Byrnes should not have been given that extension. So it helps to highlight, or dramatize if you will, the point.

But when actual projections are done, obviously they are not done based on the last 400 at bats.

This may seem like an overly long response on this point, but it’s an important point. My central points and projections are not based on small samples sizes…........and for you to say they are is incorrect.

To state the obvious myself (since here you chose not to), EB’s exceeded 100 OPS+ in three of five yrs with 400 ABs, which incl consecutive 108 & 111 seasons.

Yes, he did have seasons of 108 and 111 back in 2003 & 2004, so I stand corrected on this detail. He was slightly above league average those two seasons…....but not above average for a corner outfielder. I was remiss in not making that distinction.

Of course since then he has put up seasons of 75,96,104, and right now is at 65.

His career OPS+ is 98.

So while once again, you have “cleverly” rebutted a point….have you really? Is there any evidence that Eric Byrnes is an above league average hitter.?...really?.......without splitting hairs.? He’s had a few seasons he’s been a little above…..several seasons well below, and the net result is a 32 yr old outfielder with a 98 OPS+ for his career.

League average. At his Best. Much less when at his worst.

My point stands. ====================================================
For the final portion of this post, I would like to touch on “comparable players”

EB is a VERY VERY tough guy to feel any level of confidence when forecasting at this point. My system does not have him falling off a cliff completely when it comes to his rate stats, (although of course playing time does get reduced). BUT…...

His 3 closest comps at Baseball Reference thru age 31 are

Todd Hollandsworth (off a cliff and out of baseball after age 33)
Jeffrey Hammonds (off a cliff and out of baseball after age 34)
Gary Mathews JR. (Currently struggling in Anaheim)

Sarge Jr. is probably his best comp among these. He’s one year older, had a career year in 2006, was less than average last year, and is really struggling this year. Hollandsworth and Hammonds both got hurt too much, so tough to compare, although if you think about it, they are all pretty similar players.

At baseball Prospectus, his top Comps are

Raul Mondesi (better peak, but also pretty much DONE after age 32)
Glenallen Hill (done as fulltimer by 32, Useful partime/bench player through age 35)
Gerald Williams (Fell off cliff after age 33)

The disturbing trend with all 6 of these guys is they all did little or nothing after age 32 or 33, and for the most part, they all fell off a cliff and were done as everyday ballplayers by 33. The odds are very very high that the description of Byrnes as a ‘Glorified 4th Outfielder’ are pretty much on the money. I see little if any hope that he can replicate his 2007 numbers going forward. More disturbingly , my projections here should probably represent BEST CASE SCENARIO, as there is the very real possibility he falls off a cliff completely, and what we are witnessing now is the beginning of that, and not merely a bad slump.

Posted: Tue Aug 07, 2007 9:52 am Post subject: Reply with quote Edit/Delete this post

Since Levski said he won’t post, I’ll relay some comments from him on the phone just now. His biggest concerns.

1.) This move signals to him that Moorad/Kendrick/Hall over rode Josh Byrnes on this decision. That might be the biggest reason to be against this deal, as if that is the case, then there are likely to be more or similar moves. If ownership is going to interfere in player personnel moves like that, eventually when his contract is up, Josh Byrnes will just bolt for a team that will give him full control

2.) This means that the organization has turned Carlos Quentin into Scott Hairston at best. (Little if any playing time going forward, traded for a bag of beans…yet another sell low situation) And of course it also means that Carlos Gonzalez is going to rot in the minors for at least an extra year, and not get any playing time in the majors before he is 25.

These were his two biggest concerns and complaints. I can’t say I disagree with him. Not to the point of forcing me to stop following the team. But this is frustrating. As he said to me, if the overriding concern was further alienating the casual fan that doesn’t really love baseball, but needs a ‘face of the franchise” as a crutch to follow the team, they should have traded Byrnes and just signed Gonzo to a one year extension.

As far as EB’s performance:

It’s been great. No denying that. All that matters is what happens going forward. Nobody has been “right or wrong” yet when it comes to forecasting what he might do this season, because this season isn’t over yet. Hopefully for this year he will avoid the late season tailoff. Early August returns should make one at least a little concerned:

.238/.273/.38, but it’s only 5 games. Hopefully it was just a one week blip, and not the start of his ANNUAL late season decline. He’s played in 112 out of 113 games. We have discussed at length the possible/probable causes of his late season swoons. Grace and Sutton even discussed it on TV on Sunday’s broadcast. I think the consensus is his style of play wears him down. To that end, the team has not handled him well….he should be getting at least the occasional day off…once a month or so…and he hasn’t even gotten that.

At the end of the day, there just is no way any reasonable, rational person can forecast Byrnes doing as well or better next year than he has this year. This season looks like a career spike, and this season isn’t over yet.

To think that he will maintain this performance for the length of a 3 yr contract is overly optimistic.

To think that he will be the best allocation of funds, (10 million a year???) for the next 3 years is arguable.

But this is what it is. I am not going to jump off any bridges. He’s been a solid citizen here in Arizona, played hard, worked hard, and given his best. I certainly can’t blame him for any decisions the F.O. may make that I don’t agree with. I’ll still cheer for him when I’m at the ballpark, like I always do. And no matter what the F.O. does, I’ll always root for and support this team. But of course I reserve the right to bitch and moan when I don’t like something.