Diamondbacks 8, Astros 7: For Micah, Top Counter
Master of his domain: Micah Owings, +28.2%
Honorary mention: Brandon Lyon,. +16.8%
God-emperor of suck: Randy Johnson, -36.6%
[Click to enlarge, in new window]

Record: 20-8. Pace: 116-46. Change on last season: +4
Coming into this game, Micah's prowess as a hitter had largely not translated to games where he came off the bench. He had just one career pinch-hit - a single - in seven at-bats, with two walks. And this season, his aggressiveness at the plate had become something of a running sore: the majority of his appearances in 2008 had been decided in two pitches or less [7 of 19 on the very first ball he saw]. So, the combination of Owings as a pinch-hitter, and him swinging at the opening pitch, was surely a match made in hell?
Think again. Pwnings instead blasted the ball the opposite way, for a two-run homer that tied the game at seven and set the scene for an improbable victory. Our Win Probability was already reduced to 18.7%, by the time Randy Johnson got his second out of the game, and sank as low as 13.5%, immediately before Conor Jackson's third-inning homer, when the score was 6-2 to Houston. Last season's tean would probably have folded. This year's model chipped away, scoring a run here and a run there, then sent up one of their starting rotation, who promptly hit the first pinch-hit homer by a pitcher since April 22, 2004, when MBrooks Kieschnick of Milwaukee did it...against Arizona [Matt Mantei, to be specific].
Obviously, small sample-size is the key here, but the homer results in one stunning statistic. Owings now has the fifth-highest all-time OPS among hitters with 75 or more plate-appearances:
| Player | Career OPS |
| Babe Ruth | 1.164 |
| Ted Williams | 1.116 |
| Lou Gehrig | 1.079 |
| Barry Bonds | 1.051 |
| Micah Owings |
1.044 |
| Albert Pujols | 1.042 |
After that, the Astros might as well have packed up and gone home. You can't stop the run from rising, the tide from coming in, or the 2008 Arizona Diamondbacks from winning. The Byrnes RBI single which followed was a mere formality, as were the zeroes posted to maintain the one-run lead, by Qualls, Peña and Lyon. It was, in some way, a mirror-image of last night's game, where the loss was largely over-shadowed by the debut of Max Scherzer. Here, the win largely overshadows a very disappointing outing by Randy Johnson, who dug his team-mates a 4-0 hole in the first inning, on three singles and a homer, and lasted only four innings, allowing six earned runs on nine hits. After a series of outings where he showed improvement almost each time, this was definitely a step backwards. I was not able to find any post-game quotes from the Big Unit...
Good to see the offense come through. Montero had three hits, with two each for Jackson and Young, as every starter bar Johnson reached base safely. There were six doubles from six different players, and as well as Micah's blast, Jackson added his fifth of the year. And today's trivia is about Shaun Chacon - Pwning's homer got him stuck with his sixth consecutive no-decision. Only a couple of pitchers have had longer streaks this millennium: Darrell May had eight NDs in a row for the 2003 Royals, and the 2005 Brewers saw seven straight by... Doug Davis. The Arizona record, incidentally, is six by Armando Reynoso, from June 22 to July 21, 1999.
Another very impressive Gameday Thread turnout, especially given it was a day game. An overflow thread was required down the stretch, and now contains almost 300 comments: present today were DbacksSkins, hotclaws, seton hall snake pit, TwinnerA, mrssoco, Wimb, dstorm, soco, kishi, Turambar, unnamedDBacksfan, dahlian, 4 Corners Fan, Stile4aly, Azreous, Captain D Bag, Elway4Prez [welcome!], TexSkins, Muu, peeklay, singaporedbacksfan, paqs and SongBird. Again, much credit to the visiting Astros fans, who were gracious in defeat and victory: you're welcome here, any time - and all the best for the remainder of the season [except when we come to Houston, naturally...]
We finish April with a brilliant 20-8 record, far beyond what I hoped for coming in. The next few games will be interesting, as we get to test our mettle against some fo the best that the NL East can offer, including a challenge on Sunday, when our hitters get to face Johan Santana, who will likely be among the Cy Young contenders at the end of the season. A new poll is up, asking you to choose the MVP for the team over the first month: there have been some really great performances for us to enjoy, and it proved something of a challenge to narrow the field down to just four individuals.
Max Scherzer will be starting on Monday against the Phillies, Bob Melvin announced. In related news, the sun is slated to rise in the East tomorrow morning - I think the news of Scherzer's promotion to the rotation definitely counts as among the "Well, duh!" pieces of information to come out of Chase Field recently. It appears he will be there until Doug Davis returns from his surgery - he just began his radiation treatment on Tuesday, and it's not known what effect that will have on his strength and stamina. This is likely the deciding factor on how long he remains out, and so how long Scherzer remains with the team. I have to say, a rotation of Webb, Haren, Johnson, Owings and Scherzer seems pretty fine to me.
Off-day tomorrow. I'll be closing the World Series contest in the morning, so it's your last chance to enter. Will then be going through the stories, to pick a winner: though I've a sneaking feeling I will probably bail out of that responsibility and let Mrs. SnakePit be the judge, since there are far too many good ones there for me to pick just two. I wish I had twenty box-sets so I could let everybody have one! But more on that tomorrow, along with Lolback of the Week, of course.
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What a comeback! That Micah bomb was one of the coolest things that I have seen all season.
BTW, no love for O-Dawg on the MVP list?
by foulpole on May 1, 2008 1:44 AM EDT 0 recs
According to BP,
Our highest VORP is CoJack at 13.1, then Upton at 9.1, then the Dawg at 6.3. Stephen Drew is actually ranked above Reynolds and CY.
Max Scherzer is all out of bubblegum.
by DbacksSkins on
May 1, 2008 2:01 AM EDT
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Hitting VORP, that is.
Webb’s pitching VORP is slightly higher than CoJack’s hitting VORP.
Max Scherzer is all out of bubblegum.
by DbacksSkins on
May 1, 2008 2:02 AM EDT
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What is hilarious is that Webb’s hitting VORP is currently higher than Snyder’s. Well, hilarious for Webb. Not so much for Snyder.
by SongBird on
May 1, 2008 2:53 AM EDT
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He's on the way, certainly.
Now let’s see if he can return to his post-ASG form of last year.
Max Scherzer is all out of bubblegum.
by DbacksSkins on
May 1, 2008 5:06 PM EDT
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Maybe I didn’t make myself clear. Snyder is one of the best defensive catchers in MLB. Anything that we get with his bat is an extra.
by foulpole on
May 1, 2008 5:13 PM EDT
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Hasn't been too awfully good at gunning down runners so far
this season. I don’t know that I’d necessarily agree—if you’re talking one of the top 10 catchers in MLB, maybe.
Max Scherzer is all out of bubblegum.
by DbacksSkins on
May 1, 2008 5:15 PM EDT
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Most bases are stole off the pitcher (especially Webby), not the catcher. With the type of pitching staff that we have, Snydes is constantly knocking down pitches in the dirt and keeping the wild pitch count to a minimum while not allowing baserunners to advance. The guy probably is one big continuous bruse.
While watching a game, with runners on base, count how many balls in the dirt don’t get by him and how many extra bases it takes away from the other team. I bet that Haren, Webby, DD et. al. are pretty happy to have him behind the plate.
by foulpole on
May 1, 2008 5:26 PM EDT
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True,
but you know how baseball is with numbers. CS stats are the easiest catcher’s attributes to quantify and compare. I agree that he seems better than a lot of catchers, but it’s tough to make any solid judgment, since I don’t watch very many other catchers.
Max Scherzer is all out of bubblegum.
by DbacksSkins on
May 1, 2008 5:34 PM EDT
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but you know how baseball is with numbers.
So, is it possible that the “numbers” don’t tell the whole story?
;-)
by foulpole on
May 2, 2008 4:21 PM EDT
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So, is it possible that the "numbers" don’t tell the whole story?
Of course. That’s my biggest problem with Sabermetrics. (Well, that and the fact that Billy Beane hasn’t won a championship yet. And the fact that sabermetricians are nerdifying America’s Pastime.) But that doesn’t mean we should just ignore them.
Max Scherzer is all out of bubblegum.
by DbacksSkins on
May 2, 2008 4:32 PM EDT
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Worthy, but...
Both men have been solid, but Jackson leads the team in BA, OBP, SLG, OPS+, RBI and total bases – he’s also the only one with more walks than strikeouts. Among the regular starters, Hudson’s OPS is ahead only of Snyder – though his defense, obviously, gets him bonus points. Jackson’s OPS is 230 points better than Reynolds thus far.
by Jim McLennan on
May 1, 2008 2:07 AM EDT
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I really don’t think that our entire pitching staff’s numbers are as good as they currently are without O-Dawg. His D has been so exceptional that, IMO, he has saved our entire staff from pitching to additional hitters, held down pitch counts and saved runs. In a hitters park that’s pretty cool. His O and base running have been pretty solid as well.
CJ has had a very solid start but my vote would go to O-Dawg with CJ a close second.
Reynolds has the same number of runs and RBI as CJ but has 7 dings to CJ’s 4. I just thought that he was worthy of mention.
by foulpole on
May 1, 2008 2:31 AM EDT
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I was just talking to a co-worker today about O-Dawg’s value to our pitching staff. I was reading the article about the stalled negotiations and frowning, I am sure. I sincerely hope the team and O-Dawg can work something out. For the sake of especially Brandon Webb, but the rest of the team as well.
by SongBird on
May 1, 2008 2:39 AM EDT
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Beg to differ
As for Reynolds, after today’s game, Jackson has more runs and RBI. Really, there’s no competition for our best offensive player:
Jackson: .348/.430/.630
Reynolds: .245/.330/.500
The only one who comes close to Jackson is not Reynolds, but Upton – .327/.372/.554.
There’s absolutely no denying Hudson’s defensive contribution, but .270/.328/.459 is too far off the pace for his glove to offset the resulting 273 points of OPS deficit, IMHO. Still, that’s why we have horse-races! :-)
by Jim McLennan on
May 1, 2008 2:54 AM EDT
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The only one who comes close to Jackson is not Reynolds, but Upton – .327/.372/.554.
J-Up hasn’t brought much to the party in terms of defense and, IMO, has cost runs and additional work for the pitching staff.
As far as O-Dawg’s D, it’s pretty hard to quantify just how much value he adds due to the benefits that our entire pitching staff realize with him on the field. You had three pitchers listed as potential MVP candidates. So, would there be that many on the list or would their numbers look as good without O-Dawg on the field?
:-)
by foulpole on
May 1, 2008 4:52 PM EDT
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230 point higher but the same number of runs and RBI? Maybe OPS isn’t the only way to measure a ballplayer’s value?
by foulpole on
May 1, 2008 4:40 PM EDT
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Well...
RBI are basically a useless stat. They are probably more dependent on what those ahead of you do in the batting order, than your own skills. And similarly, outside of home-runs, you scoring is dependent on those behind you driving them home. As measures of individual skill, they are not really very useful. If Jackson wasn’t getting on base almost half the time, Reynolds wouldn’t have so many RBI opportunities.
The quantifying of defense is probably the next great frontier of sabermetrics. But shoe’s post below is probably a good place to start…
by Jim McLennan on
May 1, 2008 4:57 PM EDT
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IMO, scoring and driving in runs can hardly be called useless. All stats have weaknesses but, IMO, a two out run scoring single has a lot more value than a two out bb that puts 1 runner on. OPS doesn’t differentiate the two. A bb to a speedy/great base runner has more value then one to a slow/poor baserunner. Again, OPS doesn’t differentiate the two. There are many other examples, I’m sure, but I feel that I have made my point.
:-)
by foulpole on
May 1, 2008 5:43 PM EDT
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The quantifying of defense is probably the next great frontier of sabermetrics.
I can’t wait ‘til they get there. Then, finally, people may start to really value D as much as they should. Solid D saves so much wear and tear on a pitching staff and lowers the opposition’s chances to score and it’s value, currently, goes so unnoticed. I think that it’s really sad.
by foulpole on
May 2, 2008 3:28 PM EDT
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B.S.
Defense hasn’t gone unnoticed by sabremetrics for several years. There has been a constant effort by so many people to analyze and account for defense in as many ways as possible.
I don’t understand why this could make you sad, unless you aren’t looking for objective defensive analysis so much as defensive analysis that confirms all of your already held opinions.
by dahlian on
May 2, 2008 3:42 PM EDT
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Actually,
a lot of serious baseball analysts and scout/GM-type people pay attention to defensive value. That’s one of the reasons Brian Cashman’s Yankees teams were so good for so long; he always seemed to target guys who were very strong defensively, as well as offensively. (Well… that and Steinbrenner’s wallet) Just because it hasn’t yet been sabermetric’d and broken down into the smallest possible series of acronyms doesn’t mean that people don’t pay attention to it. It’s just a lot more subtle than hitting or pitching, that’s all.
Max Scherzer is all out of bubblegum.
by DbacksSkins on
May 2, 2008 4:40 PM EDT
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Runs scored and RBI #s have SOME value....
....in that they can quantify a hitter’s value to the team so far, but not qualify it. OPS (or even OPS+) is a much better measure (within reason) of their ability as a hitter. For example, there are probably hitters on the team with more value for the season than Micah Owings, (since they play everyday) but is there any doubt that Micah is one of the top 2 or 3 hitters on the team?? If you’re trying to put it in easy terms, you can break it down and point out that, as a batter, Pwnings has fewer RBIs and runs scored so far; but in the instances that he HAS been at the dish, he’s been (abilitywise) our best hitter so far.
Max Scherzer is all out of bubblegum.
by DbacksSkins on
May 1, 2008 5:13 PM EDT
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Qualls allowed an unearned run....
Max Scherzer is all out of bubblegum.
by DbacksSkins on May 1, 2008 1:46 AM EDT 0 recs
Also
in fairness to RJ, his last 2 innings were his best two—BoMel pulled him not because he was still pitching lousily, but because we had two on and needed the runs. If this were an AL game, he probably would have stayed in to pitch.
If you’re going to have a starter pulled after 4, it’s probably best that it happen the day before an offday.
Max Scherzer is all out of bubblegum.
by DbacksSkins on May 1, 2008 1:52 AM EDT 0 recs
How awesome was that HR by Micah? Oh my goodness. I am still laughing about it now. I can’t believe Houston switched pitchers to pitch to Micah! And then Micah jacked one to the opposite field! Ha!!!!! Ridiculous!
As I said in the game thread, this team is incredibly fun. When we were down 6-3 I thought we would be able to come back. What a nice change from last year when I would have assumed the game was over after the 1st.
Great April for CoJack. Hope he keeps it up.
Looking forward to seeing the Mets this weekend.
by SongBird on May 1, 2008 2:34 AM EDT 0 recs
It is currently
The front-page story at ESPN’s baseball site, at time of writing…
by Jim McLennan on
May 1, 2008 2:56 AM EDT
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I can’t believe Houston switched pitchers to pitch to Micah! And then Micah jacked one to the opposite field!
Not only did they make a pitching change but they had 1st base open as well. That’s the reason why I wrote “That Micah bomb was one of the coolest things that I have seen all season” above.
BTW, did anyone else notice that Bam Bam drove in the winning run to cap off the comeback?
by foulpole on
May 1, 2008 8:03 PM EDT
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BTW, did anyone else notice that Bam Bam drove in the winning run to cap off the comeback?
Um…. yeah? Why do you ask?
Max Scherzer is all out of bubblegum.
by DbacksSkins on
May 1, 2008 8:14 PM EDT
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Because, IMO, he gets an awful lot of unnecessary flack on this board and rarely get the kudos that he deserves.
When one places value on his D, base running and hitting contributions, he’s a very solid LF.
by foulpole on
May 2, 2008 4:26 PM EDT
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Well,
I don’t hate him like some ‘Pitters do, and I can’t blame him for us overpaying him, but he does kinda get on my nerves sometimes. He’s also supposed to be a “first half player” and he’s gotten off to a pretty lousy start so far.
Besides, I did give him kudos in that GDT. I said,
BYRNES!! Way to pick a great time to stop sucking!!
Max Scherzer is all out of bubblegum.
by DbacksSkins on
May 2, 2008 4:35 PM EDT
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What amount of kudos do you think he deserves?
With balky hamstrings taking away most of his defensive and baserunning value, he’s been a very average left fielder this season. And as insipid a notion as “clutch” is, he hasn’t even been that – hitting .231/.444/.308 with runners in scoring position and .235/.278/.294 when close and late.
Of course, those “clutch” hitting numbers should be ignored; if you’re a good hitter but suck in RBI positions then you’re also creating more RBI opportunities for other players. Similarly, if you’re not hitting as well in close and late situations, that means you’re hitting more earlier in the game to ensure that the game never gets to that point. I just wanted to get the “clutch” numbers out there now to head off any of those arguments at the pass.
by dahlian on
May 2, 2008 5:08 PM EDT
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Aw, I'm going to miss the story deadline :(
Totally can’t make up remember my stories after my night. (See GameDay thread.)
by snakecharmer on May 1, 2008 2:45 AM EDT 0 recs
LOL
Well, we’ll probably be having a contest for the 2008 World Series, this time next year. :-) So get cracking on that…
by Jim McLennan on
May 1, 2008 2:56 AM EDT
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Also
I just wanted to add that the OPS chart above is highly amusing.
by SongBird on May 1, 2008 2:55 AM EDT 0 recs
watching Sports Center
highlight of Micah’s home run shown. They had it under the title of “Arm & Hammer”. New nickname for Micah perhaps? though it is a direct trademark ripoff.
by unnamedDBacksfan on May 1, 2008 10:13 AM EDT 0 recs
I like Pwnings
because it was homegrown by the ‘Pit, but I like Arm & Hammer too.
Max Scherzer is all out of bubblegum.
by DbacksSkins on
May 1, 2008 11:47 AM EDT
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Agreed
Pwnings fits.
"Hold on a minute, there are three important, brilliant, and complicated reasons why you should listen to me."
by kishi on
May 1, 2008 3:49 PM EDT
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Homwgrown
anything is always better, Pwnings it is!
by unnamedDBacksfan on
May 1, 2008 3:57 PM EDT
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Baseball Tonight also has a chart of home run leaders by active pitchers, along with their career at-bats. Pretty amusing chart.
"Hold on a minute, there are three important, brilliant, and complicated reasons why you should listen to me."
by kishi on May 1, 2008 10:24 AM EDT 0 recs
at his pace
it will take him 259 ABs to take the active lead if everything remains the same.
Baseball season, when everything becomes right in the world.
by seton hall snake pit on
May 1, 2008 11:21 AM EDT
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Well,
I wouldn’t really expect Mike Hampton to hit anymore HRs anytime soon….
Max Scherzer is all out of bubblegum.
by DbacksSkins on
May 1, 2008 11:47 AM EDT
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From ESPN...
“Over the last week, Upton and Reynolds are a combined 6 for 46 (.130), with 23 strikeouts.”
It also mentions jokingly how the Diamondbacks are “only” 5-2 in that stretch.
It’s nice to be able to absorb a couple cold spots in the lineup like that, since there’s always a threat anywhere in the order. Including the pitcher, as has been well documented.
by Azreous on May 1, 2008 2:24 PM EDT 0 recs
Ugh....
I just noticed the title of the post. Wow, Jim, that was bad.
"Hold on a minute, there are three important, brilliant, and complicated reasons why you should listen to me."
by kishi on May 1, 2008 3:53 PM EDT 0 recs
am I missing something?
Baseball season, when everything becomes right in the world.
by seton hall snake pit on
May 1, 2008 3:53 PM EDT
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Possibly
"Hold on a minute, there are three important, brilliant, and complicated reasons why you should listen to me."
by kishi on
May 1, 2008 4:02 PM EDT
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oh god
No good. No bueno. 不好. لا حسن geen goed. pas bon. Δεν ωφελεί. अच्छी नहीं है. non buona. がてん. 좋은. nenhuma boa. не нужна.
Now that I get it, yes the pun is that bad.
Baseball season, when everything becomes right in the world.
by seton hall snake pit on
May 1, 2008 4:25 PM EDT
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::groan::
I haven’t been domesticated, so I didn’t get it either. Thanks.
Max Scherzer is all out of bubblegum.
by DbacksSkins on
May 1, 2008 4:33 PM EDT
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I'm glad
It finally sunk in. I was beginning to wonder if it was some kinda British thing that nobody this side of the pond would get… :-)
by Jim McLennan on
May 1, 2008 4:37 PM EDT
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I’ll blame my delayed reaction to reading the post while I was half-asleep. It wasn’t until I was at work already that I suddenly, thought, “Hey, Jim said he already had a headline picked out yesterday. What was it?”
Unless my brain blocked it from memory on sheer self-defense. =)
"Hold on a minute, there are three important, brilliant, and complicated reasons why you should listen to me."
by kishi on
May 1, 2008 4:40 PM EDT
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now if we can only get BDub
to pitch like this the rest of the year. He tends to fall off a bit after April
Baseball season, when everything becomes right in the world.
by seton hall snake pit on May 1, 2008 3:53 PM EDT 0 recs
WARP1 and the D backs
I know that there are some less than enamored with BP’s stats, but I think that looking at WARP1 can at least help add some depth to the conversation. WARP is Wins above replacement player…..IOW, how many wins is this player contributing above that which a bench/mid season callup, replacement level player might contribute.
WARP takes offense, defense, baserunning, and even pitching into account.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?mode=viewstat&stat=193
For a full season, 5- 6 is good, above 8 is excellent, above 10-12 is a great, all star or even MVP caliber season. Above 14 is off the charts good…...among all time great seasons.
FYI, Byrnes had 7.2 last year. He was very good. ;)
So, going around the Diamond, with barely over 1/6th of the season gone, here is where they stand
C-Snyder 0.9
1b-Jackson 1.8
2b- Hudson 1.7
3b-Reynolds 0.9
SS- Drew 0.9
Lf- Byrnes 0.9
Cf- Young 1.3
RF-Upton 1.4
Pitching Staff
Webb 2.1
Owings 1.4
Lyon 1.3
Haren 0.9
Quall 0.8
So…lets review it in a “tiered” fashion
Tier 1: Webb Stands alone
Webb clearly has been the teams MVP so far. He’s been doing it on the hill, and even helping his cause in the batters box.
Tier 2: Table for 2
Jackson (1.8) and Hudson (1.7) have been the next two most valuable position players on the team, pretty equal actually. Of course one is doing it at the plate, and the other is doing it with his glove. Both have been great. But I think there is a clear gap between Webb and these two. I personally felt that before looking up the numbers. So this reinforces my own personal opinion for me.
All 3 of these guys are producing all star and maybe even MVP caliber seasons so far.
Tier 3: 4 more all stars
Owings, Upton, Young and Lyon clock in next. Young may surprise some being ranked so high, but he was taking a lot of walks early, and his defense has been great. Of course lately the walks have slowed down, and if he does not pick up the pace again, he will fall behind. Lyon has been nothing short of outstanding since his first few games struggles. He is surprising me tremendously with his level of dominance. If he keeps this up, truly the NL west does not stand a chance.
Tier 4: Solid supporting cast
The rest of the guys have all been solid. Qualls “feels” better than 0.8, but he has walked a few too many, so his numbers get dinged. And a season ending WARP of 5 would be tremendous for a middle reliever. Haren feels better than 0.9 too of course. But that one bad start dinged his numbers a bit.
This is not a perfect measure by any means….but I think looking at it in this “tiered” fashion does help the conversation.
by shoewizard on May 1, 2008 4:44 PM EDT 0 recs
Interesting stuff
Is there any kind of separation available on these figures? Specifically, how much of Owings’ WARP is hitting, and how much pitching? And how much of the hitter’s WARP is for offense, and how much for defense?
by Jim McLennan on
May 1, 2008 5:00 PM EDT
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I don't think so,
BP’s defensive statistics are something of a running joke. No play-by-play data, closed source, no way to know how they’re coming to their conclusion.
Just reading their annuals you get the sense that not even the writers put much stock into what the numbers say.
by dahlian on
May 1, 2008 5:47 PM EDT
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While I figured Webb was probably the team's most "valuable" player
thus far, I voted for CoJack; not only because he’s the top hitter on a much-improved offense, but he personally has significantly improved so far this season…. and I think he’s been the biggest key to our having a much hotter start than last year. He did much better at the dish during the second half last year, and he’s doing even BETTER right now.
I don’t have numbers offhand to back this up, though.
Max Scherzer is all out of bubblegum.
by DbacksSkins on
May 1, 2008 5:25 PM EDT
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Not exactly
they don’t show WARP broken out like that, but they DO show BRAR and FRAR broken out separately right next to the WARP, so you can get an idea from that.
BRAR= Batting runs above replacement
FRAR= Fielding runs above replacement
So for example, looking at Hudsons page you will see 5 BRAR and 10 FRAR
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/hudsoor01.php
Jacksonon the other hand is 13 BRAR and 3 FRAR
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/jacksco01.php
For pitchers, they have PRAR, (pitching runs)
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/glossary/index.php?mode=viewstat&stat=135
They also show BRAR and FRAR. I am not sure of the BRAR is measured against other pitchers, or just replacement hitters in general. I’d have to check
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/owingmi01.php
So if you spend some time at each players page, you can get a sense of how their contributions, and therefore their WARP is being apportioned.
by shoewizard on May 1, 2008 5:13 PM EDT 0 recs
I didn't realize
that they use replacement level as the baseline for their defensive statistics.
The problems of trying to set a replacement level baseline for defensive are so numerous that I think it dramatically over-values defense.
Defense really needs to be compared to average.
by dahlian on
May 1, 2008 5:51 PM EDT
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They have both FRAA and FRAR
Go to the player pages linked. I don’t believe they are subscription only
They have FRAR and FRAA
I realize it’s popular to dismiss BP’s defense metrics as having no utility whatsoever. But until someone is willing to put up comprehensive linear weights rankings (Similar to Rauseo’s poor mans super linear weights) that are updated in season, it’s the best we have.
For me personally, I don’t have any trouble using them as a data point, a reference point. If there is a large gap between how FRAA or FRAR rank a players defense, and say THT’s RZR, then I would definitely go by the RZR. But if you compare the two, you’ll see they are for the most part in agreement on the D Backs players…...good is good and bad is bad.
So I think it is a mistake to dismiss out of hand the work that BP does. Just use common sense when referencing this information. It’s not presented with the intention of it being the final word on player valuation and ranking.
by shoewizard on
May 1, 2008 6:55 PM EDT
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BP is great
for trying to break down defense into a single numerical ranking and then making it easy see players ranked. But I’ve seen too much of BP’s numbers that plain just don’t make sense that I’m not willing to grant it any sort of authority without being able to look at the system and see why it may favor certain players more than others.
For now I’ll stick to THT’s numbers:
Revised Zone Rating – plays – out of zone plays
Hudson – .887, 63, 3
Byrnes – .971, 33, 3
Young – .959, 47, 18(!!!)
Jackson – .688, 22, 7
Drew – .833, 45, 9
Reynolds – .688, 33, 5
Upton – .895, 34, 17(!!!)
Both Upton and Young are second in the majors in out of zone plays. Young is also fourth in RZR, while Upton is merely middle of the pack. So while Young is legitimately a top three defensive centerfielder, Upton is merely above average. As we’ve seen, he’s struggle at times making the routing play, but makes up for it by being able to chase down more balls. And that bit of fielding stats 101 wasn’t directed at you, Shoe, but the people like Foulpole who says “J-Up hasn’t brought much to the party in terms of defense and, IMO, has cost runs and additional work for the pitching staff.” He’s undoubtedly saving us runs out there, but it would definitely be nice to see him put it all together and become a no doubt-elite level defender.
Also, Hudson so far has been the opposite of Upton. His RZR is third in the majors among second-baseman, but his three out of zone plays are middle tier at best (by comparison, the best in the league, Utley, has made 12). The fact that he leads the team in FRAR is largely due to him having the most opportunities. He’s been good, but so far not great.
by dahlian on
May 1, 2008 7:41 PM EDT
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Hudson only 3 OOZ?
Must be a typo, or BIS video equipment glitch. I’ve personally seen more than that. Unless his zone is measured from the first base line to the 2b bag. ;)
Uptons FRAA is only 1. That makes sense. His misplays have hurt. His great range has helped. So far the net result has been a push. When he stops clanking routine popups and air mailing throws, his positive numbers will increase dramatically, because he clearly has the range to make plays that no other right fielder can, and he does it fairly often.
As I said….BP seems to pretty much be in agreement with most of the RZR numbers for the D Backs. Blind luck?
by shoewizard on
May 2, 2008 3:00 AM EDT
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They must be discounting
all of the pop-ups he’s caught while waiving off other players with better position…
And no, it’s definitely not blind luck, but until I’m actually able to see where the numbers are coming from I won’t be using BP’s numbers as anything more than a secondary data point.
I’ll take the devil that’s open-source over the devil that’s closed.
by dahlian on
May 2, 2008 3:24 AM EDT
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So
you run Linux over Windows?
Max Scherzer is all out of bubblegum.
by DbacksSkins on
May 2, 2008 3:36 AM EDT
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I did
on my desktop computer.
But now that I’m purely on a laptop, my tech knowledge has gone down and I’ve become more reliant on the sweet IBM tech support.
by dahlian on
May 2, 2008 3:46 AM EDT
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I run
Fedora 8 on my work desktop and work laptop, and XP SP2 on my home laptop.
Max Scherzer is all out of bubblegum.

