AZ Snakepit: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:



Around SBN: Reflections on the Best Blazers Month In Forever Bar-right-arrows



Diamondbacks 7/1, Royals 1/Athletics 2

Didn't get to write up anything about yesterday's game, so I guess I should start by giving a brief recap of that. It was another back-and-forth contest, which again saw each team blow two leads, before Kansas City prevailed, 8-7. The Royals pounced on Dan Haren for two runs in the first, but the D-backs hit back with consecutive solo homers in the second, from Reynolds and Snyder. The former was a massive blast that left the park; see Foulpole's diary for teammate Robby Hammock's reaction to the shot. He also said, "When you square up a ball like that, you don't even feel it hit the bat. That doesn't happen very often. I can count on my hand how many times I've done it."

Eric Byrnes led off the third with another homer; Kansas scored two off Lyon in the fifth, then Arizona came back once more with four in the bottom half of the same inning. Kansas City got two in the seventh, starting with a bizarre one: John Buck struck out, but Easley, unaware the umpire had ruled it a dropped third strike, rolled the ball back to the mound as Arizona left the field: Buck reached first and the runner on third came home to score. That's the kind of mental lapse that we can certainly do without; one trusts Easley learned from the experience; a shaken Nippert walked the next two batters, resulting in the tying score, though both runs were unearned, being credited to Easley's error. The Royals scored the go-ahead run off Petit in the eighth and restricted the D-backs to one hit in the final three innings.

Overall, a better day for our hitters than our pitchers. Reynolds was 2-for-3 with two RBI, and Hudson also drove in two. Byrnes reached safely twice, with a walk and his homer. Haren wasn't very impressive, scattering five hits and back-to-back walks in his four innings of work, with two earned runs. Lyon loaded the bases in the third before he retired a hitter, and was also tagged for two runs. Qualls pitched a scoreless inning, but even he allowed two hits, and Nippert had to be bailed out of the seventh, walking three. Petit mopped up, and did strike out three in 2.1 innings, despite taking the loss.

In contrast, today was a pitcher's duel, though the result was still the same, Arizona losing by one run as they went down to the A's, 2-1 - the two sides combined for only nine hits in 57 at-bats. Davis had a wobbly first, walking two and allowing a hit and a run, but settled down, not allowing another hit as he finished four innings. Meanwhile, former D-back Dana Eveland [sent to Oakland as a cog in the Dan Haren trade] was looking pretty damn good, fanning seven of his former team-mates over five innings - that's as many innings as he pitched for us last year. However, in 2007, that led to eight earned runs; today, it was zero. "It's kind of typical Doug Davis, I guess you could say" - and Davis did exactly that afterwards. "At the same time, I want to reverse that, especially when my young padawan on the other side is out there throwing strikes. Yes: that is a Star Wars reference.

We did break through against Keith Foulke - wasn't he supposed to be signed by us? - to score in the sixth, though we didn't get a hit after Jackson's sacrifice fly put us on the board. Jackson was wearing #81 and no name for the day, having left his jersey down in Tucson. Edgar Gonzalez was somewhat unlucky, it appears, with a bloop double down the left-field line, followed by a chopper back up the middle leading to his run. Those were the only two hits he allowed, over his two innings of work. Rosales and Murphy put up zeros in the seventh and eighth inning, to end our pitchers for the day, Eric Byrnes had two of our five hits, with Hudson getting a hit and a walk, but bases on balls were sadly outnumbered by strikeouts, to the tune of 2-9.

Scanning the presses, Steve Gilbert points out that "What looked to be a set roster heading into Spring Training has become a little more complicated," and that's certainly true. Uncertainty lingers over at least three members of the roster due to injury (Tracy, Montero and Johnson), while the continuing struggles of Nippert have threatened his apparently guaranteed spot. As well as the usual suspect of Hammock, Nixon (frantically taking groundballs at first in minor-league games) and Medders, left-handed outfielder Alex Romero is now being considered by Melvin. He said, "Romero is a guy that every day comes in there and is getting hits for us... He seems to be a guy that definitely is worth mentioning when we're talking about additional guys that could make the roster." The 24-year old spent all last year with the Sidewinders, and hit .310 there.

Wheels up for Arizona this year? We stole 109 last season, which is a lot less than the 200 put up by the league-leading Mets [78 from Reyes would help any team there], but the early hints and signs are that we'll see more motion this year. Melvin wants Upton to improve his running game, and also picks out Stephen Drew as someone who can do more in this area. [Drew's career 11 SB without being caught is the most since Phil Cavarretta retired in 1955, having gone 65-0, at a leisurely pace, over a 22-year career] On the other hand, the high number of runners getting doubled off this spring, has had Melvin reminding his team of the difference between "aggressive" and "psychotic" base-running. He also said Reynolds, Snyder and Jackson wouldn't be asked to steal more, but...

Looks like "GoJack" might have a different opinion on that. "Conor Jackson is not just stronger from his winter workout regimen. He's faster, too. Scouts have clocked Jackson's time to first base at around 4.5 seconds this spring training...a noteworthy improvement from previous years, when he was in the 4.7 to 4.8 range." He says he's looking to beat out a few more hits down the line, but thinks a stolen base or two could be possible with the right pitcher. The same story also updates us on Tracy's condition: he'll hopefully be off his blood-thinners Friday, and should be ready for game action within a week or so. I'd still say that leaves him very doubtful as far as being ready for Opening Day, even in a limited role off the bench.

We're approaching Fantasy Baseball draft time, so it's been interesting to see ourselves as others see us. Patrick of The Fantasy Baseball Generals takes a look at five D-backs, but seems to find much of concern: Eric Byrnes "will break your heart"; "it wouldn't be a surprise if [Drew] continues to flop"; Reynolds' "contact rate is a big problem"; and as for Lyon, "there is no way he holds on to the closer's job." Five? Oh, yeah: Carlos Gonzalez is included, even though he's now an Oakland A, since Patrick thinks his hitting prowess is, like Drew, an illusion caused by Lancaster. Sheesh. Way to pour a damper on the day, Patrick. ;-)

I probably shouldn't be saying this, but when it comes to the draft, a week Saturday, I will be relying heavily on Rotoworld and their encyclopedic coverage of everything fantasy-related. I'm not generally a fan of paying for content anywhere on the Web [hell, not when there's enough free stuff available, if you know where to look], but I was impressed: their free news service is good by itsel, but is really only the tip of the iceberg compared to what's available after you login. Sign up here. Actually, no; forget I mentioned any of this, especially if you're competing against me in the SnakePit Fantasy League. ;-)

Speaking of which, we've filled up the league for 2008 - sorry to those who didn't get in this year. There was a 75% return rate among managers, which I think is pretty good, and we replaced the departees with some well-known names among contributors here. The presence of Wimb and Muu mean that the league will be spanning three continents this year, which is pretty cool. If only we'd got William K out in the Far East, we'd have been even more dispersed! All participants need to test their systems through the home-page for the league, to make sure it's draft compatible. I'm also thinking about moving the draft back an hour, to 2pm Arizona time; opinions for and against that are welcome in the comments.

Interesting stand by Mark Cuban of the Dallas Mavericks, who has decided to ban the Dallas Morning News blogger from the locker-room. It's kinda weird that Cuban - who runs a blog himself - would be such a Luddite here, apparently believing that an online reporter is less a reporter than one whose output appears only on the printed page. I should mention that I have no interest in reporting from the D-backs locker-room. This is covered more than adequately by Messrs. Piecoro and McManaman, and in addition, the acceptance of such a privilege could compromise my independence. But barring someone employed by a daily newspaper, on the basis that his work is delivered through the tubes of the Internet rather than on dead trees? No. I don't think so.

Today's comment starter Las Vegas has come out with the Over/Under for wins by all the MLB teams this year. [Link opens in convenient new window] where would you put your money this year? we need a team, and whether they'll be above or below the projected figure. shoe, we are awaiting your wisdom particularly on these over/unders. :-)

0 recs | Comment 14 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

over/under
If I were a bettin' man:
  1. St Louis             78.5 (UNDER)
  2. Tampa Bay        73.5 (OVER)
  3. Washington        70.5 (OVER)
  4. Oakland            73.5 (UNDER)
  5. Colorado         82.5 (OVER)

by johngordonma on Mar 13, 2008 7:55 AM EDT   0 recs

I was at Phoenix Muni
yesterday helping Joe Garagiola sign books, but there was still a line after the game ended!  We started at 11am, mind you, sold out of books sometime in the 7th or 8th inning and people were still coming.  I popped in a couple times to see the score, but oh well, I guess I'll catch some other time.  I have to say that Phoenix Muni is a nice stadium, I think I like it more than Scottsdale Stadium.
Stay grindy, my friends.

by soco on Mar 13, 2008 10:56 AM EDT   0 recs

ok
Arizona         86.5 over
Atlanta            84.5 over
Baltimore       65.5 under
Boston            93.5 over
Chicago(NL)        87.5 under
Chicago(AL)        79.5 under
Cincinnati        79.5 under
Cleveland        88.5 over
Colorado        82.5 over
Detroit            93.5 over
Florida            68.5 over
Houston            72.5 under
Kansas City        71.5 under
Los Angeles(AL)    91.5 over
Los Angeles(NL)    87.5 over
Milwaukee        84.5 under

some major uncertainties in there, but that is my initial reactions.
Minnesota        72.5 under
New York(NL)    93.5 under
New York(AL)    93.5 under
Oakland            73.5 under
Philadelphia    87.5 over
Pittsburgh        68.5 under
San Diego        84.5 over
San Francisco   71.5 under
Seattle            86.5 under
St Louis    78.5 under
Tampa Bay        73.5 over
Texas            74.5 under
Toronto            85.5 over
Washington        70.5 under

Tippecanoe and Pena too! (let's hope pena doesn't die after 30 days in office)

by seton hall snake pit on Mar 13, 2008 11:23 AM EDT   0 recs

ZING!!
Good one Jim, I asked for that. :-)

When I did my projections, the D backs came out to 84-78, so if I am to be "loyal" to my projection system, I would have to take the under on the D Backs 86.5

But I sure don't won't to do that! Last year I bet 200 bucks on the D Backs to go all the way and win the W.S.  That was a 75-1 payday though.  Damn Rockies. :(

Guess I'll have to be a homer on this one and take the over for the D backs.  But in reality, the over on 86.5 is a tough bet to make.

Here are some that I would consider putting a few bucks down on:

Cin 79.5 OVER
NYN 93.5 UNDER
OAK 73.5 OVER
SEA 86.5 UNDER

by shoewizard on Mar 13, 2008 12:06 PM EDT   0 recs

oakland
I agree on the over on Cin... I actually put them on my list.  The 86.5 # for Sea seems a touch high as well as does the 93.5 for a fragile NYN team.

But how do you expect Oakland to win 74+ games?  I know the AL West is a weak division, but I don't see how that team wins more than 70 games.

by johngordonma on Mar 13, 2008 3:47 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I think Oakland is better than you think ;)
It's all about health of course, and they haven't been healthy much the last couple of years, but if they get a few breaks, they will surprise people by being more competitive than expected.

FYI, I felt this way BEFORE I saw what Baseball Prospectus projected for them

80-82 record,  731 runs scored, 752 allowed.

by shoewizard on Mar 13, 2008 4:32 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I'd give Oakland
one more year. I'd say they flop pretty hard this year but they will start to come into their own next year. Many people think they will take years to "rebuild". I think they're already rebuilt just need another year to get some experience under their belts. Remember CarGon is there. I still believe in him.
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject. - Winston Churchill

by seton hall snake pit on Mar 13, 2008 11:29 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

We shall see...
But that looks like an awfully thin lineup and rotation to me.  I don't see them matching up favorably even with the Rays, Royals, or Twins.  I see them as being very similar to their cross-town NL counterpart.  They basically are the Giants with a better bullpen, a slightly better offense (debatable) and an inferior rotation.

by johngordonma on Mar 13, 2008 5:49 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

A lot depends on Cust
If you think he is a  fluke and a fraud who poops his pants then the A's lineup is in trouble. But the projections systems all seem to like him to follow up with a pretty decent year. Not as much BA of course, but solid OBP and SLG.

Mark Ellis is very underrated, and I really like Daric Barton.

The other key for them of course is Rich Harden.  150-170 Innings from him would contribute in a big way to  a good season for Oakland. If he goes down in flames again, that might be one too many holes to fill in the rotation.

Besides these points, there is just a baseline of likely  performance from a lot of the other players  that is a lot closer to league average than most people realize.  Like you said....we shall see. But you asked "How do you expect Oakland win 74+ games", and well thats my story and I'm sticking to it.  ;)

by shoewizard on Mar 13, 2008 7:26 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Sooo...
you're counting on Cust, Barton, and Ellis to all be "hits"... phew.  That's a tough sell for me.
I'd be happy with one of three.  To take that 80 win total you also have to be thinking Eric Chavez will return to All Star form.  Sounds like a pretty wobbly foundation.

by johngordonma on Mar 13, 2008 11:06 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Wobbly?
Ellis has a career 100 OPS+ and had a 110 last year, and had a 127 in 2005.

Compare that with Hudson, for example, who has a 97 career OPS+, and never been higher than 106.
Is Hudson Wobbly?

Jack Cust had a .147 OPS+ last year on a .912 OPS put up in Oakland.  I think he can come close to that again....maybe not quite as high, but I don't think he'll drop too much.  There is no question about his power,and he'll take his walks. He was finally given a chance, and he produced.  Do the D backs have anyone that even had a 120 OPS+ last year?  Can you imagine a hitter on the D Backs producing a 147 OPS+ in 2008?

Daric Barton is a top hitting prospect that rapped 9 doubles and 4 homers in 72 at bats in his callup last year. He had some injury issues in the minors that held his numbers down a bit, but don't overlook him. He is a guy that is going to hit for  over .800 OPS in 2008...watch.

I don't see anything wobbly about those guys.  Some of the other supporting cast have question marks though.

Anyway...I get it, you are skeptical. We'll see how they do.

by shoewizard on Mar 14, 2008 3:29 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

re: draft time
i like it how it is, myself. i don't use a computer at home, and happen to be working on the 22nd. i will already be off by one and just hanging around to do that draft, so.. the earlier the better, in my opinion.

by leemellon on Mar 13, 2008 12:16 PM EDT   0 recs

I can function on any time
I'm on break that week and I won't have anything to do but sit around and twiddle my thumbs. So put it when you must.
A fanatic is one who can't change his mind and won't change the subject. - Winston Churchill

by seton hall snake pit on Mar 13, 2008 12:29 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Rotoworld
I don't know the first thing about running a blog but I know that a few other SB sites actually have a separate section in the side-bar with team-related Roto news. Just an idea!

by AZSEAfan on Mar 13, 2008 1:44 PM EDT   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Welcome to the AZ SnakePit, the SB Nation blog about the Arizona Diamondbacks. Summer in Phoenix: "Would you like to sit on the porch? Or would you rather live?" -- Eddie Izzard.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Poppy3_small
Baseball's Glass Ceiling; or, Why Not Women?
Small
roster
Rfc_small
Thames Valley Bisons Baseball 2008
Small
What happened to the $300 mil...
P3180344_small
Randy Johnsons departure
Untitled_small
Justin Upton's Defense
Mrsnakepit_small
Arizona Fall League get-together! ** November 15 **
Poppy3_small
soco's Mind Dump - Now with more tackiness!
Small
Rauch
Me_-_sp_studio_small
2008 World Series: Philadelphia Phillies vs Tampa Bay Rays

Post_icon New FanPost All FanPosts Carrot-mini


Manager

Mrsnakepit_small Jim McLennan

Bench coaches

Me_-_sp_studio_small snakecharmer

Napoleon3_small DbacksSkins

Players

Drhorrible_16_small kishi

Meow2_small Azreous

Poppy3_small soco

Hpim3057_small Zephon

Mlp_small dahlian

ad

Site Meter