Composite Projections
I looked at the projections for D Backs hitters and pitchers currently projected to be on the 25 man roster. The projections are from 5 different sources:
Pecota, from baseball prospectus
ZIPS, from Baseball thing Factory
Bill James, from the Bill James Handbook
CHONE, from Sean Smith
Marcel, from Tom Tango
These are all 5 very respected sources in the statistical community. They don't agree on all players. On some there is quite a large range of projected performance. For example, for Justin Upton the most pessimistic projection is .717 OPS and the most optimistic is .849. For others, the projected range is actually quite close. Not surprisingly, the more at bats the player has, the closer the range tends to be, for example, for Byrnes the range is 770-810 and for Hudson the range is 780-820
What I did was simply take the AVERAGE of the 5 projection systems to get a rough idea for a "group" projection average. I'm just showing OPS and ERA to keep it simple
OPS First. Keep in mind ballpark adjusted league avg OPS for Chase Field last year was .797 and team wide OPS was just .734. So the projected numbers below would be a clear improvement to the team offense
Jackson .845 (.835 in 2007)
Reynolds .838 (.844)
Tracy .837 (.800)
Young .816 (.762)
Hudson .792 (.817)
Byrnes .790 (.813)
Upton .781 (.647)
Montero .770 (.689)
Salazar .768 (.734)
Drew .763 (.683)
Snyder .755 (.775)
Burke .728 (.661 with Houston)
Ojeda .670 (.708)
ERA Projections:
Webb 3.33 (3.01 in 2007)
Haren 3.76 (3.07 with Oakland)
Qualls 3.87 (3.05 with Houston)
Cruz 3.88 (3.10)
Pena 3.91 (3.27)
Slaten 3.94 (2.72)
Johnson 4.05 (3.81)
Lyon 4.10 (2.68)
Owings 4.49 (4.30)
Davis 4.61 (4.25)
Gonzalez 4.66 (5.03)
Nippert 4.79 (5.56)
Those ERA's may seem high to some, but actually that would probably yield a team ERA as good or better than last years 4.13
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Comments
Nice work
Offense. The .734 team OPS does include our pitchers and their .413 OPS. Not sure how much taking that out would affect the figure for the position players - 20 or 30 points maybe? The spots look to be SS, where we need Drew to hit his weight, and RF, where we got a woeful .677 OPS from Quentin and Upton. 100 points more in each of those positions would be a big step forward.
Pitching. Team ERA last year was bloated by the really-dreadful experiments: Kim, Durbin, Kennedy and Eveland, who combined for 11 innings and 28 earned runs. I doubt many teams could boast quite that awful a bottom of the barrel. Take them off, and the rest of the arms had an ERA below four, at 3.99. The predictions have only Webb predicted to beat that by more than a quarter of a run, while we have four pitchers - including two starters - expected to be above 4.25.
Disturbed to see not one of our frontline pitchers is expected to get better this year? That seems pretty harsh. Obviously, the replacement of Hernandez v2.0 with Haren will be a big help, but it's an awful lot of traffic going in the opposite direction to overcome. Though as noted elsewhere, last year almost all our pitchers were under-estimated, by most of the projection systems. Let's hope the defense steps up to help ensure a repeat performance.
by Jim McLennan on Feb 5, 2008 9:24 PM EST 0 recs
Good points
As for bottom of the barrel pitchers.....pretty common to have 2 or 3 guys really suck.
In 2006, Jarvis, Nippert, and Bajenaru gave up 32 ER in just 22 innings. Not quite as bad as the Fiasco of the fearsome foursome you point out above, but close enough.
In 2005 Kerry Lightenberg, Matt Herges and Edgar gave up 31 ER in 18 innings.
Throw in Javier Lopez and Randy Choate and you get 22 more runs in 21 innings. Amazing how bad those guys were. The 5 of them together gave up 53 ER in just 39 innings. Take away those 5 knuckleheads and their measly 39 innings of "work" and the team ERA for 2005 drops from 4.84 to 4.64
(I can do this all night long....LOL)
by shoewizard on Feb 5, 2008 10:13 PM EST 0 recs












