NL West goes to WAR

by Xeifrank on Feb 25, 2008 2:56 PM EST

Well, pretty soon they will. I've taken the steps of calculating the WAR (Wins Above Replacement) of each NL West roster. To do this I am using 2008 ZIPS Projections (then adjusting for park) and making some modifications for projected playing time. With the Diamondbacks this isn't too big of a deal, but with the outfield and 3B mess in LA it is. Generally, I am giving starters a playing time coefficient of 0.85 and bench players 0.25 and where position battles are unsettled I've split the difference to some degree. I've also done this so I can compare the team WAR totals to what I got in my simulator when playing each team through their 2008 schedule 25 times. Here are the results below. Keep in mind that this is just my work, and do not claim to be related to Bill James, and I must give credit to Tango Tiger and the USSM Blog for their tutorials on how to calculate WAR.

Notes: Units are in Wins.
Hitting:
LAD: 19.46
ARI: 18.72
COL: 18.67
SD: 18.67
SF: 11.35

Starting Rotations:
LAD: 7.07
ARI: 5.86
COL: 4.46
SF: 3.82
SD: 3.76

Bullpens
ARI: 13.72
LAD: 10.96
SF: 9.41
SD: 8.06
COL: 6.81

Team Totals: (WAR / Simulator)
ARI: 88.30 / 82.36
LAD: 87.50 / 85.88
SD: 80.48 / 82.76
COL: 79.95 / 81.68
SF: 74.57 / 75.16

Diamondbacks breakdown:
C-C.Snyder: 1.49
C-M.Montero: 1.20
1B-C.Jackson: 2.05
2B-O.Hudson: 2.84
3B-M.Reynods: 2.39
3B-C.Tracy: 0.62
SS-S.Drew: 1.33
SS-A.Ojeda: 0.55
LF-E.Byrnes: 2.60
CF-C.Young: 2.24
RF-J.Upton: 0.42
CF-C.Burke: 0.46
LF-J.Salazar: 0.52

P-B.Webb: 5.41
P-D.Haren: 3.33
P-R.Johnson: 1.91
P-D.Davis: 1.75
P-M.Owings: 1.48
P-B.Lyon: 0.99
P-T.Pena: 1.15
P-C.Qualls: 1.07
P-D.Slaten: 0.95
P-Y-Petit: -0.22
P-J.Cruz: 1.48
P-B.Medders: 0.30

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Comments

ZIPS are already "park adjusted"

What did you have to do different?

Thanks for posting these. I've looked at just about every projection out there, and done my own as well. This race is "too close to call" ;)

by shoewizard on Feb 25, 2008 4:02 PM EST reply actions

re: Park Adjustment

Perhaps I didn't explain my park adjustment clearly, or perhaps I butchered it. What I meant is that I modified the League Average wOBA to account for park factors. ie - Rockies hitters penalized for playing half their games in Coors, but Rockie pitchers rewarded...

vr, Xei

Dodger Sims 2008 NL West Rankings.

by Xeifrank on Feb 25, 2008 4:44 PM EST up reply actions

Interesting

Surprised to see our hitters so close to matching the Dodgers, but I think our rotation is at least a match for the Dodgers:

Webb > Penny
Haren > Lowe
Johnson = Schmidt [whichever one stays healthier will likely be better!]
Davis < Billingsley
Owings < Kuroda

Kuroda is a wild-card, who could be great or might fail. I really don't think Penny will be around the 3.03 ERA he had in 2007; I'm thinking closer to four. By the end of the season, Billingsley might have the Dodgers' lowest ERA.

by Jim McLennan on Feb 27, 2008 1:41 AM EST reply actions

Rotations

Yeah, rotations are very close. With Randy Johnson and Jason Schmidt's health in question, it might come down to who's #6+#7 is better. The Dodgers have Loaiza/Guo which is pretty solid for 6/7. The WAR calculation really liked the DBacks bullpen, but I am not convinced they will be having their best relief pitcher closing their games. Thoughts on that? vr, Xei

Dodger Sims 2008 NL West Rankings.

by Xeifrank on Feb 27, 2008 12:56 PM EST up reply actions

Does the best pitcher need to close?

Maybe they are thinking the games are really won in the 7th & 8th.

by shoewizard on Feb 27, 2008 2:55 PM EST reply actions

Best pitcher

Best pitcher doesn't need to close, but he needs to be used in the highest leverage situations. It's true that three runs ahead in the 9th is not one of those situations, so there is some truth to that. But tied, up by one or two in the 9th with men on base is the highest leverage situation. To what degree will that shake out for the Diamondbacks this year, I don't know. Nonetheless, it's nice to have 2 or 3 good arms in the pen to cover high leverage situations that may come up in multiple innings. I think that's where the DBacks bullpen out does the Dodgers bullpen. The Dodgers have a better 1-2 punch in Saito/Broxton, but if you go three or even four deep then that's not the case any more. Though that could change as their tends to be a lot of variation from year to year when it comes to what you get out of bullpen arms.
vr, Xei

Dodger Sims 2008 NL West Rankings.

by Xeifrank on Feb 27, 2008 3:09 PM EST up reply actions

I just have a feeling

That there is going to be a breakout performance from one of the young pitchers. It might be Scherzer getting a callup to fill a bullpen role, or it might be Leo Rosales, flashing his changeup, or one of the numerous other young arms that are in camp that are likely to start the year in the minors.

I agree the Dodgers 1-2 of Saito/Broxton are probably better, and I agree the D Backs have better depth past the top 2 guys.

by shoewizard on Feb 27, 2008 7:13 PM EST up reply actions

appreciate you commenting on this...

...most of the national pubs are down on AZ's pen because of the weak 1-2 punch in the 8th and 9th... but our depth is stellar... not many teams can roll out the type of guys in the 6th and 7th that we can (Cruz and Qualls).

by johngordonma on Feb 28, 2008 12:36 AM EST up reply actions

Good point on leverage

In many ways, it's better not to have your best pitcher as the closer, who is locked in to working only the ninth. Your best pitcher should be available for use in the highest-leverage situation, regardless of when that happens, from about the sixth inning on. Ideally, they'd be able to work the ninth too, but that's likely too big a break from conventional wisdom as yet. But if our 'best' pitcher [Qualls?] can be used anywhere from the sixth inning on, that'll give us a lot of flexibility. I'm looking forward to seeing the community projections on our pen, and finding out who people think will be the best arm down there.

by Jim McLennan on Feb 28, 2008 1:46 AM EST up reply actions