We’re looking at a tough situation this coming year.

At least expectations will begin low.

in suggesting the Dbacks’ margin for error is fairly narrow right now, in terms of winning the division. It’s doable (LA wasnt exactly world beaters last year – 84 wins in a terrible division), but their young stars appear to be, in aggregate, better and younger than ours, and we’ve failed (so far) to collectively compensate for significant losses (Hudson, Cruz, Johnson, Lyon and Dunn).

In terms of just being “competitive” or “respectable”, the Dbacks should be that. In this division, with the young, existing core, that cant reasonably be avoided.

It appears they will need many of the following things to happen:
• Webb, Haren and Drew must remain elite performers.

I think the first two out of those three are very likely to happen – they have enough of a . It’d be nice to see Drew maintain the same level as did last season, and it’s certainly possible he will, but I can’t say I am assured of it with the same confidence as Webb and Haren.

• Young, Upton, Mark Reynolds and reliever Tony Pena must improve.

They all have youth on their side, so age and experience should help. Upton, in particular, should make a very large stride forward, I think. Can Reynolds cut back on the K’s? Should be a little better there, I think, and Pena probably too. Young, however, I have a feeling, we are getting about what we are going to from him.

• Right-hander Max Scherzer must make a seamless transition to a full-time starter.

His starts last season gave a good bit of grounds for optimism there, I think. He should be fine.

• Outfielder Eric Byrnes, first baseman Chad Tracy and reliever Jon Rauch must rebound and recover.

This is, I think, the key question, and I just don’t know. Surely Rauch – who basically cost us the title by going 0-6 – won’t be so bad, nor Byrnes as dreadful as he was? And Tracy, while always a platoon guy, should be finally fully recovered? But I can’t say I am feeling tremendously certain on any of these front. I’m hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst…