Justin Upton's Defense
by Snakebitten on Nov 14, 2008 12:22 AM EST
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PrintAt times this season (okay, many times this season) it seemed as if our incredibly talented right-fielder (when he was actually on the field and not injured) forgot the basics of playig the outfield. Overrunning fly balls, misjudging careens off of the wall, the list goes on. Coupled with his many errors in only a month of play the previous season, I was worried that we had a major issue with fundamentals in RF.
However, as per this article, Jupton's defense was not as statistically bad as it appeared on the field. Due to fancy statistics that I only sort of follow, the rating that comes out puts the D-Backs at just barely above zero when comparing actual outs to predicted outs. The spreadsheet goes on to chronicle right fielders, where Justin Upton actually ranks 10th in MLB, delivering the D-Backs 6 outs above predicted, which the computer translates to 5 runs.
Since I really don't understand the math, I cannot assert the validity of these rankings. However, at least according to one metric, Upton's play in RF was not as bad as I had thought when compared to others at his position around the league.
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He does a have gun.
That lanches balls into the3bstandsandmissesthecutoffmanmoroftenthennot?.
I’mwithSnakebittenonthisone.
Thestatsdon’tholdup.
Allow me
to express my utter shock at foulpole’s response. See? This is me being utterly shocked.
"If the government's nuclear football ever were to fall into the wrong hands, Chris Horton would be called upon to intercept it on behalf of the Pentagon." -Kissing Suzy Kolber
by DbacksSkins on Nov 18, 2008 11:33 AM EST up reply actions
It's interesting
how stats will you tell you one story when you swear you remember it a different way. The defense at many times this seasons felt like a liability but according to that sheet the Diamondbacks actually performed a little better than expected, and come in at #6 on the full list. Equally surprising is how low the Rockies were, considering how much some people crowed last year on their excellent defense. Now, a large part of that might be how many injuries they sustained, but even then I never thought they’d be that bad.
On the other hand, though I can see the logic in it, I’m not completely sure if merely subtracting Actual Outs from Predicted Outs gives a complete view. What are some of the other saying about the Diamondbacks defense this year?
We are gonna get drunk with Adam Dunn and we're gonna head-butt some damn kangaroos.
Correction
For the full list of all positions, the Diamondbacks rank #17 but still had more outs than predicted. So I guess it could better, but at least they weren’t the Rockies who ended up at #25.
We are gonna get drunk with Adam Dunn and we're gonna head-butt some damn kangaroos.
BUT.... BUT!!
TEH ROCKEES IN 2007 HAD TEH HIGHEST FIELDING % EVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
"If the government's nuclear football ever were to fall into the wrong hands, Chris Horton would be called upon to intercept it on behalf of the Pentagon." -Kissing Suzy Kolber
by DbacksSkins on Nov 18, 2008 11:35 AM EST up reply actions
best defensive stat is runs allowed
it is the combination of pitching and defense – Dbacks were 10th in baseball
That's also
subject to park factors, though.
"If the government's nuclear football ever were to fall into the wrong hands, Chris Horton would be called upon to intercept it on behalf of the Pentagon." -Kissing Suzy Kolber
by DbacksSkins on Nov 19, 2008 10:33 AM EST up reply actions
Though
the more I look at the full list (and I swear this will be the last post my sleep-deprived brain makes right now) the less I like the way they figure defense.
The range between best team (Jays at 102.22) and lowest (Royals at 98.76) isn’t very large. A difference of 3.76 percent isn’t all the significant, is it? Or does this just prove how little defense matters in comparison to other parts of the game?
We are gonna get drunk with Adam Dunn and we're gonna head-butt some damn kangaroos.
The 102 vs. 98 doesn't really tell you what you want to know.
Look at “runs delta”. That tells you how many more RUNS a team saved compared to averaged. The Jays were +60 runs and the Royals were -35. That’s a ten win difference.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Nov 15, 2008 11:16 AM EST up reply actions
I'm looking at this page, btw.
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/11/6/654812/2008-team-defense-by-pmr
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Nov 15, 2008 11:16 AM EST up reply actions
What's
the methodology here? I haven’t taken math in awhile so I’d think the phrase “runs delta” would mean the difference in runs. I imagine that’s not right though, so how do they get to that number?
You keep on rowin', and I'll keep on smilin'.
Well,
the 3.76% also displays the sheer sample size, I think. Every team has a “good” defender or two, and every team has a “bad” defender or two. But no team is made entirely of 9 excellent fielders and 9 terrible fielders.
"If the government's nuclear football ever were to fall into the wrong hands, Chris Horton would be called upon to intercept it on behalf of the Pentagon." -Kissing Suzy Kolber
by DbacksSkins on Nov 18, 2008 11:44 AM EST up reply actions
That's very true
but it just shocks me (mainly because I’ve never thought about it too much) how little difference there is according to those numbers.
You keep on rowin', and I'll keep on smilin'.
I’m not too surprised here- Upton had a lot of really dumb plays last year, but he also had some sparkling brilliant ones. Usually they would follow each other in quick succession, it seemed. It seems fairly uncommon to see such an unbalanced player- his judgment on where a fly would fall was so poor, but his speed and his throwing arm were so good.
"I'm here to advise you on dispensing horror in this modern military climate. I understand you're a demigod, that's fantastic!"
He'll get better. It'll just take time. He'll learn all that.
At times this season (okay, many times this season) it seemed as if our incredibly talented right-fielder (when he was actually on the field and not injured) forgot the basics of playig the outfield.
Remember, also, that Upton was only drafted out of HS in ‘05 as a shortstop. Presumably, he’s played OF before his professional career, but of COURSE he’s still learning the position.
Heck, his misjudging balls to the OF may have led to many of his assists.
"If the government's nuclear football ever were to fall into the wrong hands, Chris Horton would be called upon to intercept it on behalf of the Pentagon." -Kissing Suzy Kolber
by DbacksSkins on Nov 18, 2008 11:39 AM EST up reply actions
A limitation of
the analysis is that they only calculated these numbers for one player per team. I would like to be able to compare Romero, Salazar, and Upton based on their defensive performance in right field.
Also, the other positions have links at the very top of the article.
Arizona expatriate in Missouri
Dave Pinto has the numbers for every player, but only showed players with at least a certain number of chances.
I’m sure if you emailed him he would share the full list of DB players.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Nov 15, 2008 11:17 AM EST up reply actions
My instinct is
Upton’s tremendous range helped him convert more balls into outs than would be expected. From what I recall, most of his errors were not outs which weren’t made, but bobbles that allowed extra bases, or throws that missed the cut-off man. Those would not show in this statistic, which deals simply with outs converted or not. What happens after the ball reaches the fielder is entirely excluded and especially in the outfield, that’s likely almost as important.
Exactly.
This metric compares batted balls turned into outs compared to batted balls allowed for hits. Throwing arm is not included, and those bobbles/other misplays would fall under throwing arm. Why?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Nov 15, 2008 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
Perhaps
because it’s more difficult to isolate a single player in that case? The farce of “errors” notwithstanding.
"If the government's nuclear football ever were to fall into the wrong hands, Chris Horton would be called upon to intercept it on behalf of the Pentagon." -Kissing Suzy Kolber
by DbacksSkins on Nov 18, 2008 11:42 AM EST up reply actions
What a waste of 1 year of control for the FO.
Q should have been playing RF in ’08 and J-Up should have been playing in Tucson.
It was apparent that J-Up needed more seasoning during the time he played for the big club in ’07.
Oh good: haven't got to use this one in a while
by Jim McLennan on Nov 20, 2008 6:56 PM EST up reply actions
By this point
I’d feel sorry for the man, too- that arm has to be sore.
"I'm here to advise you on dispensing horror in this modern military climate. I understand you're a demigod, that's fantastic!"
I maintain
that its just “pining”
Arizona expatriate in Missouri
by Snakebitten on Nov 20, 2008 9:05 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I think
it’s glue now
It's a job that's never started that takes the longest to finish.
by unnamedDBacksfan on Nov 23, 2008 3:41 AM EST up reply actions
Or at least
Jell-O
"If the government's nuclear football ever were to fall into the wrong hands, Chris Horton would be called upon to intercept it on behalf of the Pentagon." -Kissing Suzy Kolber
I’m not sue that I understand your post.
Does it mean that JB (or the FO as it seems that many bloggers credit JB for all the good moves yet blame the current (or former) owners for all the bad ones) screwed up yet again by dealing Q and playing J-Up at least one year too early?
It means that no one has ever thought trading Q was a good idea. By acting like you’re the only person who ever opposed the idea, you’re really moving from the realm of “intentionally obtuse” and setting up house in the lands of “complete troll”.
Furthermore, trading Q was more related to signing Eric Byrnes to a long-term contract than it was on Upton’s being put in the majors. Besides, why are you bagging on the guy who hit .250/.353/.463 and made ~$400k instead of the guy who hit .209/.272/.369 and made ~$6.66 million?
Oh, right, because you’re intent on not letting the facts interfere with your opinions.
"I'm here to advise you on dispensing horror in this modern military climate. I understand you're a demigod, that's fantastic!"
I was
okay with moving The Carlos Quentin, just not necessarily at the price. To be fair, I think most of us had no idea he would have the season he did in 2008, at least not right away.
You keep on rowin', and I'll keep on smilin'.
UPS
I agree with you foulpole, but I also think they looked at the long-balls he hit in Tucson. We needed someone who could hit one and he got picked. I do have a problem with center field. While he can go and get it, once given a huge contract, his bat totally sucked and went dry.
by teach186314 on Nov 23, 2008 11:53 AM EST up reply actions
Tucson?
Jupton was called up from Mobile, not Tucson….
"If the government's nuclear football ever were to fall into the wrong hands, Chris Horton would be called upon to intercept it on behalf of the Pentagon." -Kissing Suzy Kolber
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