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Around SBN: My First Fight: Diego Sanchez

Wheels of Steel

It's the off-season, so to get our adrenalin fix, we baseball fans have to turn to other sports. We've already reported from our trip to see the Coyotes, and some day we plan to do a jai-alai write-up [no lie, that's a great spectacle: shame the nearest venue is about 2,100 miles away from Phoenix]. But closer to home is Power Soccer, which we got to see down at ASU last weekend. That was courtesy of snakecharmer, who was in Phoenix with the rest of her team, the San Jose Steamrollers, for the Western Regional tournament.

It's a game for powered wheelchair users, with the chairs modified somewhat with the addition of a front guard - this is used to drive a large soccer ball, about 13" in diameter towards the opponents' goal, and also protect both the chair and the participant. There are four players in play for each side at any time, with additional ones on the bench: the court size can vary, but is generally about the size of a basketball court. It's not a full-contact sport, so falls a little short of Murderball, as wheelchair rugby is called, but is definitely a physical contest - inevitably so when you have two players going for the same ball. Though my initial reaction when charmer was describing it to me, was that it'd be cool if they customized the chairs with flamethrowers, chainsaws and so forth, as in Robot Wars or Battlebots. Y'know: Extreme Power Soccer. Meets Mad Max. In the Thunderdome. Er, just me, then. ;-)


The San Jose Steamrollers
Coaches: Robert, Don
Back row: Ed, Chris, Paul, Corbett
Front row: Keith, Jerry, Jenny (a.k.a. snakecharmer)

Five teams were taking part in the regional tournament; the first stage saw each play the other four, and the top two then met in the final. charmer and San Jose made it through to face Berkeley there - but were perhaps the underdogs, having lost to Berkeley in the round-robin stages. Before the game, the chairs of the participants underwent speed trials: to ensure a level field of play, there is a limit of 10 km/hour set - so nitrous oxide kits would be of no help. Interestingly, only forward speed was checked, not reverse or rotational velocity. The last-named is of particular importance, as the favored technique in dead-ball situations, is to spin the chair on the rear wheels axis, so that the side of the guard strikes the ball. By practice, the ball will then shoot off in the required direction, with surprising pace.


Berkeley presses towards the San Jose goal

There were a large number of team-mates, friends and family down the sideline as the game started - and this was a good thing, as they could explain the rules to novices like myself and Mrs. SnakePit. The most important one is that no double-teaming is allowed: any 2-on-1 action received a quick whistle from the referee. Backing into an opponent also resulted in a foul being called on the perpetrator. And it was this offense that resulted in the first goal of the final: after a tense, hard-fought opening to the 20-minute first half, a Steamroller player reversed into a Berkeley player in the penalty box. The resulting shot was calmly put away to leave San Jose 1-0 down at the break. Undaunted, they roared back in the second period, first leveling the score and, almost immediately afterward, taking the lead. But Berkeley were not done yet, and tied the game at two with just a few minutes to go.

There was no further scoring, so the game moved into overtime: two halves, each five minutes long. Both teams had chances to clinch the contest, but neither could convert there, meaning it came down to a penalty-shootout. Each player on each team gets a shot at goal from a distance of 3.5 meters, while the opposing keeper tries to stop it, though they are not allowed to move until the ball is put in play. San Jose took the early advantage after Berkeley missed their second attempt, but were unable to finish the opposition off - the Steamrollers saw two of their shots glance agonisingly outside, off the post. After attempts by all the players on each team, the score was still level, and we started round again. San Jose made their fifth shot; Berkeley couldn't, and the Steamrollers took the match in the most exciting and tense way imaginable.


The final shoot-out: we can hardly bear to watch...

Certainly, it couldn't have been a much better introduction to the sport; two top-level teams, going full-throttle at each other, with the game only decided by the very last kick. Imagine your first baseball game being an extra-innings thriller, decided by a walk-off home-run. That's the sort of thing I'm talking about here. Initially, I will admit, it was a somewhat odd to watch - but the longer it went on the more we forgot about the disabilities of the participants, and just saw the game. By the end of the contest, we were completely engrossed: hell, I wouldn't mind having a go myself! I'm sure I'd probably suck utterly, of course, but it'd be fun. At least until someone loses an eye. ;-) Many thanks to charmer for introducing us to the sport, and we look forward to her report from the finals.

Game Notes

  • The nature of the sport means that it's unisex: men and women play on the same team, which is kinda cool. There are two divisions for different skill levels, but there is no apparent concession for level of disability.
  • I was going to start a fight in the bleachers: I'm British, and that's what we do at soccer games. However, there were no bleachers available, so that plan was scrapped. ;-)
  • Team USA, including a couple of Steamroller players and one from Berkeley, won the World Cup in Japan last October. The final saw them beat France, in another game that went to sudden-death penalty kicks.
  • If you're curious to see some more of the game yourself, here's the video from the 2007 World Cup in Japan.
  • The Steamrollers' site can be found here
  • They now go on to the Nationals with a psychological edge as Western champions. These take place in Atlanta this summer: charmer has already checked the schedule, but sadly the Diamondbacks are not playing the Braves at that time...


Jenny tells Jim the shoot-out is over,
and he can now open his eyes again. :-)

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Looks like I missed a great competition.
Sorry again that I couldn't make it, Jenny. :-(
Come on, Sandy Baby, loosen up. You're too tight.

by DbacksSkins on Jan 20, 2008 9:02 PM EST reply actions  

It's okay, I understand!
But yeah, you missed an amazing game. Next year you should definitely come up! :P I was really glad Jim came to the final and not the game earlier in the day, in which we'd lost to Berkeley by 3-1! But the next game was a fresh start, and we wound up on top.

by snakecharmer on Jan 21, 2008 12:40 AM EST up reply actions  

Thanks Jim
Thanks so much for being adventurous and coming down to watch the final. It was so great to meet you! I'm really glad you and Mrs. SnakePit enjoyed yourselves.

And I hope all of you enjoy reading Jim's wrap-up. It's a very difficult sport to describe to people, but Jim did a bang-up job. I didn't feel comfortable telling you all and inviting everyone yet, but maybe more of you can come if the Regional is there again next year.

My team all had a fabulous time staying near and playing at ASU. We were within walking distance of ASU, which meant close to fast food, breakfast, and our choice of bars for our celebration Saturday night. (Drunk wheelchair users playing pool == awesome.) Despite the choices of lunch and lack of complimentary bottled water, AZDS and ASU put on a great and well-organized tournament. We can't thank the staff and volunteers enough for what they did for us. Funny anecdote: the mother of one of our teammates decided to write to an old childhood friend who had moved to AZ 30 years ago, and he just happened to be the principal of the high school whose students were volunteers. Talk about coincidence.

The game Jim got to experience was truly phenomenal. We are pretty evenly matched with Berkeley (we play them about once a month, along with Hollister, so we're familiar with them and their game) but to go to a PK shootout was a first for me! I was on the bench for that, for which I was grateful. I'm relatively new to the sport and I'm not a good enough player yet to have the pressures of the tournament on my shoulders. My teammates did a fabulous job, the whole tournament win was truly a team effort.

We're handing around the trophy just like they do with the Stanley Cup, and in fact this week it's sitting on my dresser! :) It's a great sport, power soccer... if you get a chance, try to check out the Arizona Heat. They came in 3rd and they've got great potential!

by snakecharmer on Jan 21, 2008 12:36 AM EST reply actions  

OT
Rockies are apparently close to signing Too Low to an extension.
Come on, Sandy Baby, loosen up. You're too tight.

by DbacksSkins on Jan 22, 2008 10:25 AM EST reply actions  

Huh
I'll have to wait for final numbers, but this strikes me as being a silly thing to do.
Bob Melvin Sucks

by nihil67 on Jan 22, 2008 11:22 AM EST up reply actions  

Not sure I'd agree.
Normally I'd concur with you on as young a guy as this, but Tulo looks to be a pretty rare player. They're getting him locked up for a bit after ONE YEAR in the majors.... before his FA stock can rise too high.
Come on, Sandy Baby, loosen up. You're too tight.

by DbacksSkins on Jan 22, 2008 1:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Not to mention
it shows their young players that if you're a homegrown guy and you perform, despite their past stinginess, they're willing to open their wallet for you.
Come on, Sandy Baby, loosen up. You're too tight.

by DbacksSkins on Jan 22, 2008 1:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Not silly at all
They will have bought out a year of Free Agency, and have an option on a second year of free agency. Even if Tulo's bat regresses a bit, which it very well might, taking a look at his road splits, he is still well worth locking up because of his outstanding defense.

Good signing for the Rockies.

by shoewizard on Jan 22, 2008 12:49 PM EST reply actions  

You guys crack me up
If the Diamondbacks went out and locked up Stephen Drew for 6 years, $30 mil after last season you'd have been pissed.
Bob Melvin Sucks

by nihil67 on Jan 22, 2008 1:44 PM EST reply actions  

And by last season
I mean 2006.
Bob Melvin Sucks

by nihil67 on Jan 22, 2008 1:45 PM EST up reply actions  

You're darned right I would.
Drew wasn't in the majors for a full season in 2006, and every peripheral suggested that he was outperforming his minor league stats.
Come on, Sandy Baby, loosen up. You're too tight.

by DbacksSkins on Jan 22, 2008 2:56 PM EST up reply actions  

Exactly
It's apples and oranges. They both got called up in 2006, and both played a full season in 2007. Of course you don't extend either of them before they've played a full season in the majors, and thats not what the rockies did. They extended tulo after he played a full season. If Drew had the kind of season in 2007 that Tulo did, I'd be dancing a jig for such an extension.

Tulo was 22 last year, has 790 career PA's, a 101 OPS+, and plays Gold Glove caliber defense.

Drew was 24 last year, has 845 career PA's, an 84 OPS+, and plays a league average short stop.

Tulo had 38 VORP and a 8.5 WARP1 last year. Drew?
He had 2.8 VORP and 2.1 WARP1 last year.

Yeah...one of these players is not like the other.

by shoewizard on Jan 22, 2008 6:20 PM EST up reply actions  

hahahahahaha
You guys are too funny.
Bob Melvin Sucks

by nihil67 on Jan 22, 2008 6:55 PM EST up reply actions  

Wouldn't sign either of them
Long term, personally. It's the largest deal ever for a player with less than two years of service time - by a very long way [the $30m beating the $23.5m given to Grady Sizemore in 2006]. But Tulowitzki batted just .256 away from Coors Field last year, with an OPS+ of only 94. The defense is nice and all, but I'm unconvinced he's the "real deal" as yet, rather than largely a Denver-induced phantom. CHONE, Marcel and ZIPS all expect him to regress somewhat this season, dropping between 12 and 38 points of OPS. Of course, since he'll be playing 81 games at altitude, that might help; hopefully, though, he'll implode an leave the Rox looking at a long-term albatross of their own.

by Jim McLennan on Jan 23, 2008 1:16 AM EST up reply actions  

'leave the Rox looking at a long-term albatross'
Oh, be still, my beating heart!
Come on, Sandy Baby, loosen up. You're too tight.

by DbacksSkins on Jan 23, 2008 4:31 AM EST up reply actions  

Seems like a smart move to me...
Tulo clearly is a bit of a "Coors phenomenon" at this stage in his career.  However, one can't discount that too much.  There are some who don't benefit nearly as much from Coors.  If he does, good for him.  An extra base hit is an extra base hit -- it doesn't matter whether he hits it at home or away, it helps the team.  And there's no question this guy is in an elite class with his defense.  That lone might make the contract worth it.

A the end of the day the Rox got what they need in order to be able to move forward: payroll stability, and Tulo got what he wanted: financial stability.  Seems like a mutually beneficial deal to me.

by johngordonma on Jan 23, 2008 6:53 AM EST up reply actions  

Lg Avg OPS+ for SS
Even if he had a 94 OPS+ for home and road combined, he'd still be an above league average hitter for a SS. When you factor in his defense, he would have to be a below league avg hitting SS to drop down to lg. avg value overall. (I hope thats not too contorted a sentenence...LOL)

Look at it from another angle:  EQA, which is park adjusted.

The league avg SS had a .255 EQA last year.

Tulo had a .272 EQA, solidly above avg. He has room to "regress" to lg avg EQA, and STILL be worth the money, as his defense makes him an above lg avg SS.

Almost all of the defensive metrics, from every source, are unanimous in putting Tulo among the top 2 or 3 defensive Shortstops in the games.  He's not likely to lose that any time soon.

The Fielding Bible had him the runaway winner in their plus minus system.

http://www.fieldingbible.com/

BP had him 46 FRAR and 24 FRAA

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/dt/tulowtr01.php

Chris Dial's zone rating based GG Awards had Tulo 2nd behind Vizquel

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/dialed_in/discussion/the_2007_nl_gold_glove_awards/

I mean seriously, does everyone realize how good a year Tulo had with the glove? Even if he is merely league avg hitter going forward, this is an excellent contract for the Rockies.

by shoewizard on Jan 23, 2008 3:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Couple of thoughts there...
I tend to think that the effect of a ground is a factor both of the park and the player; most obviously, if a park has a short left-field, say, it'll play different for left-handed and right-handed batters - the overall park factor will underestimate the help it gave one group at the expense of the other. Last season, Tulowitzki seems to have benefited rather more from Coors than a simple park-adjustment would suggest.

Taking the four players who have more at-bats at Coors than any others, Larry Walker had an OPS 207 points better there than his overall figure; Helton +232; Vinny Castilla, +192; Dante Bichette +200. And they mostly played their games there in a pre-humidor era. Tulowitzki last year was +241. His BABIP was also .335, and an even more extreme .372 at home. [NL average was .301, and .315 for Coors] Now, it may be his style of play leads to an increased BABIP [shoe, is there an article that talks about this? I've heard you mention this before, with regard to Stephen Drew, for example], but this seems unsustainably high.

That aside, the Rockies paid $30m for two years at league minimum, the three arb years and the first year of free agency. Given they'd have gotten the first two years for less than a million, that means they're paying $29m for three arb years and one year of free agency. That seems very, very expensive for someone who had a 109 OPS+. Compare, say, Carlos Guillen, who has had an OPS+ no worse than 115 over the past four years, but still earned only $5m this season. Or Hanley Ramirez, a shortstop like Tulowitzki, only ten months older that him, who posted a 145 OPS and will get league minimum this year.

Now, Tulowitzki certainly had a fabulous year with the glove, and that should also be taken into account. And I can't claim this was a "bad" signing; but it seems unnecessarily trigger-happy, and seems to have nothing but downside for the Rockies. Even if Tulowitzki got four, six and eight million for his arb years [and how many SS get those kind of figures?], that works out at about $11m for his first year of free agency. Doesn't seem all that good value for me.

by Jim McLennan on Jan 23, 2008 9:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Good stuff
Home/Road difference:
We'll have to see another year or two of Tulo to really know if he benefits more than the usual player would. It's probably a fluke thing to have that big a gap.

I don't know his split on line drive%, but overall he had a very good 20.1% LD rate. So a higher than league avg. BABIP is not surprising at all.

As far as contract values go, I don't think you can use Guillen as a comp. That contract is 1.) A freaking steal, 2.) was signed 3 years ago. A lot has changed.

By the time we get to 2012, do you really think 11 million is going to be high for an above avg SS?  
Heck, Furcal is getting 13 million a year NOW.

Check out Chase Utley's contract. He's getting a TON through his arb years, and 15 million for his FA years.

In 3 years, those arb amounts are not going to seem high at all, and 11 million in 2012 is probably going to look like a steal.

Also, please don't bring up the Marlins. We know how THEY do business.  ;)  

by shoewizard on Jan 23, 2008 11:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Cots has details
Here are the exact details:
  1. 750,000
  2. 750,000
  3. 3,500,000  Arb year
  4. 5,500,000   Arb year
  5. 8,500,000  Arb year
  6. 10,000,000  First year of free agency
  7. 15,000,000  * Club Option or two million buyout
So he is guaranteed 31 million if the Rockies do not exercise the 2014 option.

Really, I think this is fine. They are probably not paying more than a couple million more than they would have had to anyway for his arb years. By 2010-2012, those arb figures won't seem all that high. If he actually gets BETTER than he was in his age 22 season, which is certainly possibly, than they will actually SAVE money on the Arb years.

By 2013  10 million is going to be a bargain for a first year FA shortstop of his caliber, even if he only has a 95-100 OPS+. (provided the defense is still there of course) And if he hits anything like this past season, well the rockies stand to save big time bucks.

Meanwhile Tulo gets his lifetime security, and will still get a crack at free agency entering his age 30 season.

by shoewizard on Jan 24, 2008 2:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Not trying to beat a dead horse
really....but I came across an interesting comment by Dan Z over at BTF that I think is relevant. He made it in the James Shields contract extension thread, but it touches on the general concept of locking up guys with only 1 or 2 years service time.  I think it is a concept that really deserves greater study, as it is likely to be a relevant one for us D Backs fans on several fronts within the next 12 months.

/According to SportsTicker, 3 years, $12 million guaranteed with the rest coming in the form of options. It's hard to dislike this signing from either party's perspective This is something I've been advocating for some time - locking up players with 1 or 2 years of service time provided that their MLB performance isn't out of whack from their minor league performances. Early on in the service time clock, after all, is the only opportunity you can really offer a play a drastic change in income standing. Going from $300,000 to $4 million is huge. The guaranteed outlay is still small on relative terms and becomes even better as long as MLB's revenue growth dwarf's cost-of-living growth. $4 million for a 2008 individual is obviously less money than $4 million for a 1998 individual, but $4 million for a baseball team is a drop in a much larger bucket than it was then.

Even when these deals work out badly, when talking about the money involved, they're still not very damaging to the bottom line. Take the Eric Hinske. He was signed to a 5-year, $14.75 million contract before his sophomore season. He was disappointing offensively, injured, and his defense got worse. But he still ended up about 5 wins better than replacement level over the course of his contract. /

by shoewizard on Jan 24, 2008 5:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Likely, the wave of the future...
The way baseball is rolling in money - $6 billion in revenue last year - it could make sense to lock players in early, for cost-certainty. Though player salaries haven't quite kept pace: the average only increased 4.6% last year, and 23% since 2002. But here's the bit that I noticed. Emphasis added: "locking up players with 1 or 2 years of service time provided that their MLB performance isn't out of whack from their minor league performances."

Tulo's 2007 OPS: .838. Tulo's 2006 MLE, based upon the season in Triple-A: .696. Now, clearly he's a young player, and some improvement is to be expected, plus you've got the Coors factor too - but still... Compare another young shortstop who had his first full season in 2007: Stephen Drew. his 2006 MLE line was .236/.283/.373 for an OPS of .656 - his 2007 MLB line, .238/.313/.370 for an OPS of .683, much closer to the expected value. I think we have a good case for believing (and I admit, fervently hoping!) that there's a significant chance the wheels will fall off the Tulowagon in 2008.

I might have to collate all this together into a Why Tulowitzki Sucks article, just to irritate the Purple Rowites. :-)

by Jim McLennan on Jan 24, 2008 9:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Jim, your "chasing wabbits" here
First of all, Tulo never played in AAA, the highest he played in the minors was AA, Tulsa. That MLE you are looking at is for a 21 yr old AA player.  You are misapplying the MLE here.

Furthermore, Tulo's .843 OPS that year was 46 points higher than his team's OPS, and 80 points higher than league avg OPS.  Thats not league avg for a shortstop. Thats just league avg. He had an excellent AA season in 2006 prior to his call up.

In contrast, when Drew was in AA, in 2005, at age 22, he had a .687 OPS in 113 PA, vs. a league avg of .730

The next year, at age 23, in AAA Tucson, he had a .802 OPS vs a team OPS of .835 and a league avg .768

So Tulo was better than Drew at AA at a younger age, and then played in the majors at age 22 when Drew was still in AAA at age 23.

Drew had a great callup in 2007, but as I projected, his numbers were unsustainable, as he had a near .400 BABIP and a poor contact rate.  He fell back to earth much harder than even I thought he would, but I had him regressing quite a bit heading into 2007.

http://forum.diamondbacksbullpen.org/viewtopic.php?t=1031&highlight=stephen+drew+ops

P.S.: OPS Projections

Bill James .838
Marcel .826
Chone .811
ZIPS .800

Tulo doesn't suck. Trying to come up with reasons why he will is a bit of tilting at windmills. I wouldn't write that article if I were you. ;)

by shoewizard on Jan 24, 2008 11:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Stand corrected...
On Tulowitzki's level. I was using Drew simply as an example of the generally reliable nature of MLE's. However, when a player moves from AA to the big-leagues, and his OPS basically stays the same... That just doesn't seem sustainable [Or natural... :-)], since you are now facing a much higher level of pitching. I'm not really saying Tulo sucks, but just see too many warning signs [road split, BABIP, etc.] for me to want to ink him to the most-expensive contract ever for a player of his experience.

by Jim McLennan on Jan 25, 2008 12:03 AM EST up reply actions  

Dude give it a rest
You compared signing Tulo after 07 to signing Drew after 06.

You are confused again.

by shoewizard on Jan 22, 2008 7:02 PM EST reply actions  

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