I'm ready to talk Baseball again ...

by Captain D Bag on Jan 16, 2008 11:08 PM EST Comment 11 comments

Hello everyone (it's npineda, I wanted a new name)... I've taken a few long months off baseball, checking in less than I have in recent off seasons, and not commenting much. I was a tad heartbroken following our sweep out of the post season, and was haunted by images of Byrnes sliding into first over and over and over again, but, after some long intensive drinking sessions to burn those memories out of my head, as well as some really good prescription medication from Dr. Spaceman, i'm ready to go again.

My first piece of things I bring back with me, is a tidbit from Yahoo! Sports rumors section, which I hate half the time, but they had a pretty decent piece about the D-backs trying to work a long term contract with Brandon Lyon, and his agents response.

D-Backs discussing contract with Lyon

I love that the best file photo they had was a purple uniform from the season he closed ... I also love the #8 comment about 'How dare you consider Valverde over' ... Oh, how little they know Valverde ...

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I was thinking about Lyon today...

Welcome back, sir. For a second I thought D-hacks had returned. :-) Beyond the obvious question of who is "best" equipped to close for us, we need to take a look at what happens after the season is over. Using Lyon as the closer would probably make him a Type A free-agent at the end of the season. If he signs somewhere else, we then get two draft picks: a compensatory one from the signing team, and a sandwich pick between the first and second round. That would certainly be worth taking into consideration when planning for the season.

by Jim McLennan on Jan 16, 2008 11:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

D-Hacking It! :)

No, I couldn't do that to you :).

The draft picks are interesting to think of for the next few years, till we get to the end of paying off the world series team ...

What are the chances Cruz can step up with the mentality to close? His 'Stuff' may not be closer stuff, but neither is Todd Jones ... he's got experience and a short memory span, things you don't mind seeing in your closer. If Cruz can establish himself through the first part of the season, maybe Lyon can be duped into a multi year contract. That, combined with Pena and Slatten being under control for a few years, gives you a pretty solid bullpen core for a few years.

Unless, of course, Bill Murphy decides to step his game up :).

by Captain D Bag on Jan 17, 2008 5:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Stuff

"His 'Stuff' may not be closer stuff"

I'd argue that his stuff is indeed closer stuff. High 90's fastball that moves... hard slider... ok change. I've been arguing for years that he could be a closer.

I'd really like to see the Diamondbacks ditch the closer role completely. The most important outs aren't always in the 9th inning.

Bob Melvin Sucks

by nihil67 on Jan 17, 2008 10:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I would agree

I think Cruz definitely has the "stuff" -- heck, he's got some of the best stuff on the team -- but Cruzie's problem is mental. But he really seemed to find his groove last year in the bullpen, even though he opposed the move.

I like Ben's idea of doing away with a closer altogether, though. Then again, closers may be horribly overrated, (setup guys are much more important) but I do think that having a decent closer creates a psychological effect over the opposing team.

Come on, Sandy Baby, loosen up. You're too tight.

by DbacksSkins on Jan 17, 2008 10:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Cruz has GREAT stuff

He's just never had the command of it necessary to be consistent in high leverage situations, averaging 4.6 walks per 9 in his career. Last year? 4.72
Second half of last year? 4.82

It's really that simple. He walks too many guys.And he's shown NO sign of improvement in this area.

As much as I love the guys stuff, and as fun as he is to watch when he is "dealin", he turned 29 in October. You have to wonder if he has what it takes to dial down his "stuff" just enough to improve his command significantly, and not become much more hittable in the process.

It's a tantalizing thought...but obviously the D Backs have their doubts or they would have given him a 2 year deal. Hopefully he has a year as good as last year and retains his Type A free agent status. (Gotta love those K's pumping him up in the Elias rankings!!). We could use the 2 draft picks.

by shoewizard on Jan 17, 2008 11:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That said...

Valverde was hardly a control machine, at 3.64 walks per 9 last season (and 3.84 career). So Cruz walked only about one extra batter every nine innings, and struck out almost two extra batters per nine, which would help counter his wildness. It is undoubtedly an issue though.

A few saves might be very helpful come Elias time, and I have my doubts about Lyon's capacity to go three days in a row [which he's done only once since May 2005]. There will be save chances to go around, I suspect, though Cruz will likely be third or possibly even fourth in line for them, depending on where Qualls fits in.

by Jim McLennan on Jan 17, 2008 10:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If Cruz got down to 3.64 BB/9

He'd be a good closer candidate. The difference of 4.72 to 3.64 is not small or trivial though.

Don't get me wrong, I think Cruz was a pretty valuable reliever last year, and if his shoulder could hold up to more workload, (it can't) I'd love to see him get more opportunity.

But as long as his bb/9 rate is pushing 5, and his shoulder problems flair up every time they use him a lot, the team is unlikely to give him as many innings as a lot of us would like to see.

by shoewizard on Jan 18, 2008 1:24 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Isn't it a bit tougher

to judge a short reliever by BB/9? I mean if he was a one IP/appearance guy, we'd be looking at 1 extra walk every 2-3 weeks. Am I way off base on this?... because the same would hold true of KK/9 as well for a short guy.

by AZSEAfan on Jan 18, 2008 12:40 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Baseball is a very streaky game....

....because of the sheer number of contests and length of the season, and that's why we use averages, but the players almost NEVER play like that. With a guy like Valverde, generally, he's either on his game or he's not. It's likely that we're not talking about giving up one more walk in an inning when he wouldn't otherwise. Rather, what's more likely is giving up an extra walk in an inning when he's already given up a walk or a hit. In a situation like that, when walks come in bunches, it makes a BIG difference.

There are some guys, ::cough DOUG DAVIS/LIVAN HERNANDEZ cough:: the Harry Houdini types, who can inexplicably let a ton of guys on base, but space it out over multiple innings, meaning that their ERA is much lower than their WHIP and other peripherals might predict. Most pitchers, however, are NOT like that.

Come on, Sandy Baby, loosen up. You're too tight.

by DbacksSkins on Jan 18, 2008 3:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If Valverde had a 4.72 BB/9

He would have had 34 walks instead of 26.

Considering he had 7 blown saves, I wonder how many he would have had if you sprinkled in 8 more walks over the course of his season. Very possibly 2 or 3 more, considering the leverage and situations.

Valverde, who has a career 3.84 BB/9 rate is really at the outermost edge of tolerance when it comes to walks from a closer, IMO. Ideally you would like to see your closer have a BB/9 under 3. Valverde can get away with it because of his K rates and ability to blow guys by.

I know that an extra walk every couple of weeks doesn't seem like much, but ultimately it is. If you look at the successful closers, guys who have had any kind of sustained success in the role, they almost never have a Walk rate over 4, let alone near 5.

by shoewizard on Jan 18, 2008 1:13 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Truth in that...

Among the 36 closers with 10+ saves last year, the median BB/9 was 3.08. There are outliers, such as F-Rod, who got 40 saves despite a BB/9 of 4.54. Or most notably of all, Mitch Williams, who notched 192 saves in his career despite a BB/9 north of seven. And we though Valverde was a heart-attack candidate... :-)

by Jim McLennan on Jan 18, 2008 2:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs