I decided to check out the new playoff probabilities after last night's win. The D'backs chances increased to 39.7% while the Padres fell.... to 54.2%! The gap is the same if you look at winning the division alone: 26.8% to 41.3%.
What is wrong with this picture? The D'backs have a 2 game edge in the standings, so why are they the underdog? Strength of remaining opponents, perhaps? Nope. The same site clearly shows our schedule is slightly easier (.491 to .499). Home vs. Road games? No, we have 3 more at home, they have 3 more away. Any ideas?