Question from a Cardinals fan(Trade Talk)
According to a Chicago Tribune writer, your D'Backs might be shopping Carlos Quentin for a starting pitcher.
Apparently, according to the article, your GM wants either Garland or Danks, but was scouting Contreras. So obviously he's looking for a starter for your stretch run, and he seems to prefer someone on the young side, but is willing to look at a proven veteran.
Given all this information, I have a couple trade proposals, and I wonder which of these would be enough, in your expert opinion as D'Backs fans, to entice your GM to pull the trigger, or if none of them are.

Again, this isn't "which trade would you like to make?"(if any of them) but "if the two GMs of Arizona and St. Louis got together--which, if any, of these would your GM accept if it was offered him?"
Proposed trade #1: Cardinals trade SP Braden Looper and OF Juan Encarnacion to D'Backs for OF Carlos Quentin.
We obviously get a very good outfield prospect who seems to be struggling this year. You get: a career average .270 MLB outfielder to fill that roster spot and give you decent production, as well as a starter with a 7-7 record and 4.6 ERA.
Proposed trade #2: Cardinals trade SP Anthony Reyes to D'Backs for OF Carlos Quentin.
This one is "we give you our struggling prospect and you give us ours." Carlos Quentin obviously isn't having the year he wanted. Neither is Anthony Reyes. After being a top 50 prospect the last two years and being the World Series, game 1 hero. Maybe a change of scenery would be good for Reyes.
Proposed trade #3: Cardinals trade SP Anthony Reyes and OF Juan Encarnacion for OF Carlos Quentin
Same reasons as above for why you might want these players.
So, I'm obviously fine with you giving me your input on which trade you'd want(surely #2 or #3), but just as important, which, if any, of these do you think your GM would accept?
Your input would be very appreciated!
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Hmmm...
by DbacksSkins on
Jul 18, 2007 2:58 AM EDT
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Well...
Why do you seem so willing to dump Juan Encarnacion? If I were Josh Byrnes, and you presented me with the trades listed above, the only one I would consider is #3. Keep in mind that Josh Byrnes' two most notable tendencies are to try to buy low and sell high, and when the price is right, to trust veterans in the twilight of their careers. Regarding your proposals,
#1. Juan Encarnacion? Why would we want him? Finding outfielders that hit .270 isn't a difficult task. We've got enough young outfielders that if we were to trade Q, we could still get somebody from the minors to play RF well enough. The reason we were playing Q for so long this year wasn't desperation, it was that we wanted to get him major league experience. Braden Looper? Not interested. Starting pitchers with a 4.6 ERA are a dime a dozen. Since he was a decent closer, if we needed bullpen help, I'd think about it, but fortunately, our bullpen is (somewhat unexpectedly) possibly our strongest area. Looper just isn't Apocalyptic enough to join the Dbacks bullpen. (Read the site if you don't get the reference)
#2. Carlos Quentin for Anthony Reyes, straight up? I don't think so. Sure, Reyes was expected to do great things, and may still. However, I think you Cards ppl may have caught lightning in a bottle in game 1 of the WS, and the regular season game vs. the White Sox. Yes, he pitched well, and shut down the Tigers for awhile, but remember that the Tigers didn't have any major league scouting on him; he was an unknown commodity. Our rookie Micah Owings debuted with 5 innings of shutout 1 hit ball; we still love him, but he's now got a 4.92 ERA and is 5-5. Edgar Gonzalez was similarly impressive. Additionally, during that whole 2006 world series, (no offense) the Tigers should have won. The Cardinals got hot right when it mattered, and Detroit didn't. (Which is to their credit) By the way, I think LaRussa made a stupid decision in starting a rookie pitcher, in Reyes, in game 1. Of course, it paid off, but it was still dumb.
#3. This may be a stupid observation, but if you gave me the option of #1, #2, or #3, of course I'm going to move towards #3 before #2 because you're offering another player. In comparison, #3 looks enticing, only because #2 looks like such a lousy deal. However, after taking a step back, the Encarnacion argument from #1 still applies, as does the Anthony Reyes argument from #2. Encarnacion is a good player, and is better than Carlos Quentin right now, but we still believe Q could be pretty impressive down the road. Encarnacion still becomes redundant in our organization. And is Juan Encarnacion REALLY going to help us get to the postseason THIS YEAR? Probably not, making his acquisition irrelevant. The fact that Encarnacion is signed through '08 is a slight plus, though we believe that Justin Upton will be starting for us somewhere in the outfield by then. Next, Anthony Reyes... well, like I said, I'm not sure whether or not we'll trust his performance so far. Especially since he's had his chance to prove himself this year, and his ERA is over 6. Then again, Byrnes doesn't mind trading for young pitchers; witness the Yusmeiro Petit deal.
In summation, I believe that neither I, nor Josh Byrnes, would go with any of those trade options.
by DbacksSkins on
Jul 18, 2007 3:44 AM EDT
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Wait a second... how rude of me
Of course, you haven't heard the authoritative word on anything D'backs until Jim's posted.
by DbacksSkins on
Jul 18, 2007 3:51 AM EDT
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thats a big goose egg
by seton hall snake pit on
Jul 18, 2007 9:09 AM EDT
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P.S.
by seton hall snake pit on
Jul 18, 2007 9:11 AM EDT
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courtesy of one of larry's posts on VEB
These are all the pitchers that he showed some interest in, but backed off when the asking prices got too high, tell me which of these pitchers would have been money well spent:
Miguel Batista-xFIP 5.07 $5.5 mil
Jeff Weaver-xFIP 5.14 $8.325 mil
Adam Eaton-xFIP 5.19 $7,208,333
Jason Schmidt-xFIP 5.06, out for the season. $16 mil
Jeff Suppan-xFIP 4.85, $6 mil
Randy Wolf-xFIP 4.25, $7.5 mil
Vincente Padilla-xFIP 5.12, $9 mil
Andy Pettitte-xFIP 4.48, $16 mil
by mtalken on
Jul 18, 2007 10:03 AM EDT
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I just can't believe
by seton hall snake pit on
Jul 18, 2007 10:56 AM EDT
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hah, that's ok, I can deal with the vent.
The Edmonds signing was entirely designed to bridge the gap to one our really really good prospect, Colby Rasmus, who is currently in AA and expected to arrive in the bigs in 2009, which is when Edmonds will be gone. I think they definitely overpaid for him. I like the 2-year signing, but they basically gave him money like he was still the player he was in 2004.
Our left fielder is Chris Duncan, who has a .947 OPS, which, I guess you're right, is worse than Barry Bonds, who has a 1.050 OPS, but before you rip on Duncan too much, his .947 OPS is better than your best regular, Eric Byrnes, who has posted an .860 OPS so far.
I know fans, especially the typical type of fans, who don't constantly look at stats and discuss ideas with bloggers like those of us here do, can be obnoxious. I'm a Cardinals fan in the midst of Cub-territory--and I've had Cubs fans tell me, shortly after the Soriano deal last off-season, that he's better than Albert Pujols--so I know that the fans you're probably speaking of are obnoxious, but most of us don't believe our team last year was that good. We got supernatural pitching from Jeff Weaver, and a few key players in our offense got hot, and obviously the Mets were sans Pedro Martinez.
Trust me when I tell you that those of us at VEB all pretty much feel like that World Series Championship was a LONG time ago with the way our team got old REAL fast.
by mtalken on
Jul 18, 2007 1:05 PM EDT
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I meant in the field
by seton hall snake pit on
Jul 18, 2007 10:22 PM EDT
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Some "experts"
by AZSEAfan on
Jul 19, 2007 6:22 PM EDT
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They have radios in Southern Indiana??
by IndyDBack on
Jul 18, 2007 9:30 AM EDT
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yeah!!!
by seton hall snake pit on
Jul 18, 2007 11:20 AM EDT
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Of course there's two interesting things here:
However, in Baseball America's top 100 prospects, Reyes and Quentin both showed up in 2005 and 2006. Quentin was around 20-25, Reyes 40-45. So these guys weren't really that far off from each other, and many GMs value pitching much more than positional players. I think you might be shocked that your GM might be more receptive towards the bottom 2, but you guys know your team and GM much better than I do.
The other thing of course, is to see how fans value their own players and prospects. I've proposed similar types of trades on three of these blogs now, and of course there's my own view of all the Cardinals fans on Viva El Birdos. All the trades/countertrades I've now seen seem very lopsided, such as trade #1 here, proposed by a VEB poster(I pretty much figured that if Quentin were as good as he seems to be, that'd be a no-brainer "hell no")
Oh, the last comment isn't meant to be derogatory towards any of you. As I said, it applies equally to the fans of the other 2 sites and to the fans of my very own Cardinals, too. Just pointing out something I found to be interesting :)
Thanks for the input.
by mtalken on
Jul 18, 2007 10:01 AM EDT
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yeah
by seton hall snake pit on
Jul 18, 2007 10:58 AM EDT
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No, thanks
But, generally, I'm not inclined to trade Quentin yet. I still think he has a huge amount of potential, and it's unlikely his trade value would be decreased by hanging on to him for another season. I think the players we should be looking at trading are those who are performing above and beyond their perceived level, rather than those who are disappointing. "Buy low, sell high" is the mantra, and looking at the deals Arizona has made since Josh B has arrived makes it seem likely it's one shared by the organization. [See the arrival and departure of Johnny Estrada, for example] Eric Byrnes and Orlando Hudson are the players we should be shopping around, just as soon as we finish dropping out of the NL West race. Which, on current form, will be in about three days. :-(
by Jim McLennan on
Jul 18, 2007 11:07 AM EDT
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Why Reyes doesn't succeed in St. Louis
Here's his First Inning card: http://firstinning.com/players/Anthony-Reyes-a/
The only time's he's posted an ERA above 4 in his career were A-ball, then 2006 and 2007 with the big club.
Duncan, because of many years of fantastic Cardinals defense(which isn't true anymore), preaches pitching to contact using the 2-seam sinker. Anthony Reyes has a plus 4-seamer and a plus changeup and an average curveball...
And he's being told to put them all on the back burner to use a 2-seamer that he isn't good at and seems to not even like.
In AAA, it seems like they allow him to pitch to his strengths, where Duncan asks him to pitch to Duncan's strengths. The longer I see how Duncan handles pitchers, the more I realize he shouldn't be handling young pitchers, but only trying to reclaim the careers of veterans, who haven't yet learned how a 2-seamer could help a pitcher with diminished velocity.
I definitely understand the concept of trying to buy low and sell high. Which is why this is a trade that appeals to me as a Cardinals fan, because at least we'd be selling low with another team that would be selling low right back to us, so in that way, at least neither of us are giving away someone who is great but having a bad year for someone who is awful but having a career year.
The more I look at Quentin, the more I would REALLY love for Jocketty to get on the phone with your GM, but I fully understand, given Quentin's minor league numbers, why you wouldn't want to give up on him yet.
To compare him to one of our players, he looks like his worst case scenario is to be as good as Chris Duncan, and he could potentially be better.
Of course, I'd like to think that Anthony Reyes could be that level of pitcher too.
Oh well, it's not like we're the ones who get to make the deals, so I guess we'll all just have to wait and see.
by mtalken on
Jul 18, 2007 12:54 PM EDT
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I think....
Now, if I were GM, I might consider trading Justin Upton this year. Before I'm burned as a heretic, hear me out-- he hasn't yet had the chance to prove he can make it in the big times, and I think the level of hype around him is such that we could probably get a lot of value for him in regards to other prospects. Maybe a younger Orlando Hudson type player, a young starting pitcher, and maybe a high A ball infielder. A lot of teams are already coveting Upton, and he's never even played above AA.
Of course, we NEED a bat in the order that pitchers will learn to fear, and I happen to think both Upton AND Quentin are going to be good major league hitters. So I say we stay put, unless some other stocked team (A's? Yankees maybe? Devil Rays have some good young guys too) makes a stupid offer we can't refuse.
by DbacksSkins on
Jul 19, 2007 12:33 AM EDT
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The outfield
For the starting pitching, though, the FO would probably take anyone upright, breathing, and nourishment if they can go 6 or 7 innings a game.
by soco on
Jul 18, 2007 12:30 PM EDT
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Juan Encarnacion
by oklahomasooners on
Jul 18, 2007 11:01 PM EDT
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