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Diamondbacks 4, Rockies 6 - It's Over

Final post-season victories: 3.

Quotes of the day

  • "It simply reaffirms this group and the dedication they have to playing 27 outs. Nobody hung their head. Nobody blamed anybody else. I think it simply reaffirms what we've done all season long and that's battle from start to finish... We don't listen to the skeptics. We battled right down to the last out, so we have nothing to be ashamed of. The adjustments were made. The attitude and perseverance that we showed all year was still there, even down the stretch." -- Tony Clark

  • "If you're looking for someone to blame, start here. I had a terrible series. It was too bad. Obviously, it wasn't for a lack of effort." -- Eric Byrnes

  • "It was a routine play. I (expletive) it up. What can you say? Cost us four runs and it was pretty much the ballgame after that" -- Conor Jackson

  • "We believed in ourselves the entire season, and we ended up being one of the last four teams playing. So no doubt it was a successful year. There's nothing to hang our heads about. We lost tonight and we lost the series, but overall it was an amazing year." -- Chris Young

Congratulations to the 2007 National League pennant winners, the Colorado Rockies, who finished off the sweep of Arizona last night, and will go on to face either Boston or Cleveland in the World Series. I can't, in all honesty, begrudge them their victory. My main regret is that we did not play the way we have shown, so often this year, that we can. The sweep does not reflect the actual difference in quality of the two teams - but it does reflect the Rockies' vast superiority in the clutch, particularly with two outs.

Arizona ended the series just 4-for-27 with runners in scoring position, so it's not as if we had no chances. We had a higher batting average than the Rockies (.254/.222) and our OPS in the series was 43 points better too. Yet, they outscored us over the four games, 18-8. As we've been telling the world the entire season, that is, in the end, what matters. There's something ironic that we die, in much the same was that we lived this year: in the face of the statistical evidence.

The final game was, in many ways, a microcosm of the series, with the Rockies taking full advantage of their opportunity in a six-run fourth. Outside there, they had only two at-bats with a man in scoring position the rest of the game. We were 1-0 up in that fourth, thanks to an RBI single from Jackson but, inevitably, a two-out bloop turned the tide, with Smith getting jammed but somehow lobbing the ball, just fair, down the left-field line for a double. Even then, it was still a one-run game, but Jackson turned from villain to hero, inexplicably muffing an easy grounder by Taveras, which should have ended the inning. Instead, Matsui singled, and Holliday unloaded to center-field, a three-run homer that made the score 6-1 to Colorado.

Typically, our offense arose too late. With just four outs left, Snyder hit his own three-run shot, and Upton followed with a triple to bring the tying run, improbably, to the plate. However, after Clark worked the count full, Corpas got him with a slow slider. Young doubled to bring the tying run to the plate in the ninth too, with one out, but Drew popped up on a 3-0 pitch. Them, fittingly, Byrnes grounded out weakly to end it, leaving our $30m man 3-for-17 in the series and 6-for-29 in the post-season. I really hope this is just his usual last-season slide, not an omen of things to come for the next three years.

One wonders whether Micah Owings was, perhaps, banged up earlier in that fourth inning. He ended up on the ground after fielding a tapper back to the mound, saying afterwards, "My back stiffened up a little bit. But the main thing was it just knocked the breath out of me." With hindsight...who can say. The bullpen was perhaps at their finest ever: Cruz and Lyon through 4.1 innings of no-hit ball, striking out nine of 14 batters. Whatever our issues this post-season, our relief corps was not it; here's their playoff line:
Bullpen: 24 IP, 9 H, 1 ER, 32 K, ERA 0.28
The Four Relievers of the Apocalypse were particularly...er, apocalyptic. Brandon Lyon pitched six innings, allowed one hit and struck out five; Juan Cruz 4.1 innings, one hit, with nine strikeouts; Tony Peña 5.1 innings, three hits, seven K's; Jose Valverde, 4.2 innings, two hits, fanned eight. No question, our bullpen was the collective MVP of our October.

And that was it. The final Gameday Thread of the year was sad, but largely philosophical. I think we had already passed through most of the five stages of grief in the previous three games, and the eventual loss was met with resigned acceptance. Thanks to everyone who turned up: Devin, snakecharmer, DbacksSkins, soco, Adam, bitterfan, azdb7, Dr Robert, TwinnerA, CA SnakesFan, 4CornersFan, oklahomasooners, westcoastbias, batster, dahlian, venomous1987, peeklay, IndyDBack, emilywebs [welcome!], VIII, monica in el paso, Silverblood, dbacksfan55555, Wimb, Pigpen Fan, nihil67 and cavscout. And thanks to everyone who has helped the threads explode this year. If you'd told me at the start of the season we'd pass 400 comments seven games in a row and come close to a thousand, more than once...

Gameday Graph

[Click graph to enlarge, in new window]
Master of his domain: Conor Jackson, +9.4%
God-emperor of suck: Micah Owings, -34.4%
Honorary suckness: Stephen Drew, -11.9%

And now, the off-season begins. I think there'll be plenty to talk about here, but there'll be time enough for that in the long, dark, cold (well, slightly less warm, here in AZ) winter evenings. For now, I'll just refer you to the post below, and let's remember the 2007 season not for the way it ended, but for what it brought us.

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The guess the series contest
It looks like Wimb won?
Bob Melvin Sucks

by nihil67 on Oct 16, 2007 3:07 PM EDT   0 recs

So....
How many days  until pitchers and catchers report?
I'm not superstitious- it's bad luck.

by kishi on Oct 16, 2007 3:08 PM EDT   0 recs

Assuming 2/13 is the day
~120 days.
Bob Melvin Sucks

by nihil67 on Oct 16, 2007 3:16 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Too freaking long.
Good thing the Redskins are 3-2 so far, or else I'd lose my mind.
Come on, Sandy Baby, loosen up. You're too tight.

by DbacksSkins on Oct 16, 2007 3:40 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Hey!
Thanks for the welcome. Sadly, I found this site too late, but I'll be back. Count on it.

by emilywebs on Oct 16, 2007 6:46 PM EDT   0 recs

Micah is God-emperor of suck???
Are you serious?  Did we watch the same game?  Micah gave his all in that game.  He only had 2 ER althought 6 were scored.  He made a hit out of a typical out due to speed.  He prevented a double play with great base running.  He pounced on that ground ball which could have ended up in outfield and done a lot more damage, (especially with CoJack defending the area.)  He was one of the few Dbacks that played like they could win.  I'm stunned.

I would have given CoJack or Brynsie that honor.  I really feel CoJack's error was the most costliest of all mistakes in that game.  He even admitted he mucked up a routine play.  That kind of baseball will not get you an invitation to the WS.   And Byrnsie, what happened to him?  He pulled an A-Rod.  Great during the season--choke during the postseason.  I know I am biased about Micah but I still don't think he deserved that.  

by batster on Oct 16, 2007 9:58 PM EDT   0 recs

You have a point,
if the rating was due to the homer (if I remember that was just post-bellyflop) next time he won't let himself get stampeded.  He will wait a bit longer and get settled before resuming.

Thanks all for an entertaining and educational time this year even if I was mostly lurking and watching rather then game-commenting.

by nargel on Oct 16, 2007 10:54 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

G-EOS, MOHD, etc. is determined by fangraphs.
By their calculations, Micah did the most to keep the team from winning, ergo he's G-EOS. It's determined by the numbers, not by subjectively evaluated performance.
Come on, Sandy Baby, loosen up. You're too tight.

by DbacksSkins on Oct 16, 2007 11:03 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Ironic that CoJack would be MOHD, though.
CoJack did hit the first RBI, but still. I wonder if those should be reversed?
Come on, Sandy Baby, loosen up. You're too tight.

by DbacksSkins on Oct 16, 2007 11:04 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

I didn't know there was an algorithm..
but if there is, it is seriously flawed.  I suggest a few fixes need to be applied to the code post haste.

by batster on Oct 16, 2007 11:27 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Feel free to tell Fangraphs?
No, seriously. Let them know that this is the perfect example of their algorithms being a little outta whack. Present your case, that CoJack should be the lowest and Micah should be the highest, rather than vice versa.

Part of the problem is, I don't believe they take fielding into account. (Including errors) So, CoJack's win probability % is based entirely on his batting. That having been said, Micah's % up there only includes his pitching. His batting was +0.5%, so if you want to mix both (Jim never does that) Micah's at a -33.9%. Not much difference, but slightly better.

Here's the raw data, if you're interested.

Come on, Sandy Baby, loosen up. You're too tight.

by DbacksSkins on Oct 16, 2007 11:40 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Just to be clear...
..I don't think Micah should have been labelled Master of his Domain either.  I really don't know who would have been considered the best AZ player.  Perhaps one of the relievers?  They were fantastic throughout.

by batster on Oct 18, 2007 5:53 PM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yes, it is imperfect
Because, as noted, it doesn't take fielding into account. With pitching, the pitcher basically gets credit or debit for the win-probability at the end of the inning less the win-probability at the start. That's six runs worth in the case here. He did give up a two-run double and a three-run homer in that inning, it has to be said...

by Jim McLennan on Oct 17, 2007 12:03 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

True, but only two runs were earned..
..I guess it is just academic at this point.  If CoJack had fielded that ball like 99.5% of first basemen would have, three of those runs would not have occurred.

by batster on Oct 17, 2007 12:11 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Like I said, point that out to fangraphs.
I'm somewhat split on this, because I feel like the whole earned run/unearned run distinction allows pitchers to get away with more on their statline than maybe they should. Is Micah responsible for the one runner that CoJack's error allowed? No. Would Micah have allowed the home run and 6 runs scored during the next inning? Possibly. Did he allow the runs? Yes. So, to me, even though CoJack's error prevented Micah from getting out of the inning, he still threw the pitch that was smacked into the seats.

Tag him with 1 unearned run and 5 earned runs. But then again, that's just baseball.

Come on, Sandy Baby, loosen up. You're too tight.

by DbacksSkins on Oct 17, 2007 12:35 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Except...
CoJack botched the third out.  If he makes it, Matsui leads off the next inning with the innings empty.  So while Micah isn't blameless in it all, if Connor makes the play, the Diamondbacks are only down 2-1 as they go into the next inning.
I'm not superstitious- it's bad luck.

by kishi on Oct 17, 2007 12:44 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Ack
Posted the comment before I finished the thought.  If the play had been made cleanly, that'd keep Taveras off the basepath, and erase Smith, too.  If the same hits are given up, Matsui doesn't get an RBI, and Holliday only has one runner on, so it's only 4-1 after his at-bat.  So, in my mind, at least two of those runs should be unearned.
I'm not superstitious- it's bad luck.

by kishi on Oct 17, 2007 12:48 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah, I got what you were saying.
Come on, Sandy Baby, loosen up. You're too tight.

by DbacksSkins on Oct 17, 2007 12:52 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

True...
But if we concede that Micah still allows the single to Matsui and homer to Holliday, that means it's 4-1 in the next inning.

Of course, as the game played out, 4 runs wasn't enough to beat us, but still. Give Micah 2 unearned runs and 2 earned runs then. (Which was how many earned runs he actually did give up)

Come on, Sandy Baby, loosen up. You're too tight.

by DbacksSkins on Oct 17, 2007 12:51 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

BTW, thanks for a great blog this summer...
Mr. Almanac.  I really enjoyed reading and posting.  You are a very gracious host and I appreciate your detailed stats and dry, British humor.  Thanks again.

by batster on Oct 17, 2007 12:13 AM EDT to parent up   0 recs

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