Let's Keep Byrnes!

by npineda on Jul 21, 2006 2:05 AM EDT

Ok, it's bound to happen. We are looking at a team that is focusing towards the future, and has a lot of young talent that can go a long ways. But, the star veteran is something of value to every franchise. They provide clubhouse presence, name recogoniztion, and sometimes national attention.

Byrnes needs to be the guy we keep. We could keep him on the fairly cheap, in my opinion. 4 years, 3, 4, 4, 5, million in each of the years. Veteran presence that's a fan favorite. A all out player in Centerfield, give his all on every play. He's got decent power in Chase (and a majority of hitter friendly parks in the division) to bat 4-6, and consistent batting average and OBP to bat 1-2.

I don't get blinded by being a fan too often, but I personally love this guy and think we should be fair in trying to keep him. That would be awesome :).

Also, what do you think our needs will be in free agency? I'm anticipating relief pitching, 2nd baseman, and starting pitching, but throw your opinions out there.

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I'd rather

see Chris Young at centerfield, making about ~300K and probably matching Pigpens overall value, if not excedding it. But that's just me.

by Otacon on Jul 21, 2006 3:09 AM EDT 0 recs

I agree

but if the D'Backs can get a solid no. 2 pitcher for Young, there's still a guy named Upton down in Low A who is rapidly learning how to be a centerfielder...

The Pigpen nickname for Byrnes is funny though. I don't remember, was it Schulte or Candiotti who mentioned it on the radio broadcast?

by William K on Jul 21, 2006 4:28 AM EDT up 0 recs

Team needs

Starting pitching, starting pitching and starting pitching :) Another ace will be great (Zito might be out of reach) but the D'Backs should settle for a solid 2 and 3. They can then fill 4 and 5 with any of the 2 Gonzalezes, Nippert and Micah Owings. Cruz can then go back to relief duties.

Relief pitching and closers are too unpredictable to spend lots of bucks in the free agent market. I think Valverde will bounce back from his problems this season.
2B shouldn't be a problem. With Alberto Callaspo (Ranked 3rd best 2B prospect by BP's Kevin Goldstein, http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5297) in the system along with Danny Richar, Emilio Bonifacio and maybe even Mark Reynolds being possibilities in the future, it's possibly the 2nd deepest position in the farm system besides RF.
In fact, the system has players ready to take over in all positions except maybe catching where Montero has just reached AAA.

by William K on Jul 21, 2006 4:42 AM EDT 0 recs

Keep Byrnes?

I'd love to see it, personally, because I've been convinced: Byrnes is great. End of discussion. However, the problem is, he becomes a free agent after this season, so we'll be back to paying market value for the guy. And he's had a good enough season that the D'backs are likely to be far from the only team interested. Chris Young would certainly be a far cheaper alternative in CF; would he be capable of putting up the numbers of Byrnes, or anything comparable to it? That's one for management, and those who've seen him far more than us, to decide.

However, also factoring in - and William K will correct me if I'm wrong - if we do not sign Byrnes, and he goes with someone else, think we get compensatory draft picks. I'm guessing Byrnes would count as a Type A [top 30% of CFers], which gets the signing team's 1st-round pick (unless it's one of the top 15 picks, in which case it gets a 2nd-round pick), plus a bonus pick between the 1st and 2nd rounds. That's not something to turn our noses up at. But we'd have to offer him arbitration to get those picks, and I'm not certain we would want to go that route.

by Jim McLennan on Jul 21, 2006 4:30 PM EDT 0 recs

More generally

Starting pitching is the #1, without a doubt. We need at least one, ideally two, reliable arms we can put in the rotation behind Webb. At the moment, any of our other starters can be great, but they can also be horrible. I'm not necessarily demanding a Zito-like ace - though that would be nice - just a quality start, six inning, three earned runs kinda guy, who can give our offense a credible shot at winning every start.

However, as I've said before, I think we'll be hard pushed to compete in the free-agent market, simply because cash is not our best asset. I would be expecting us to try and trade for a player with time on their contract, and negotiating an extension with them. When it comes to prospects, we are far better able to put a deal together than, say, the Yankees, whose farm system resembles the surface of the moon.

Elsewhere, I think we're largely set. I feel our bullpen is young enough that it will sort itself out behind Julio [especially if we get another starter, allowing Cruz to move back in there]. And if Hudson doesn't pan out at second, we can give Callaspo a shot. I'm not sure what the contract situation is with Estrada, but I would not be averse to getting him signed for another year, until we see whether Montero is the real deal.

Of course, if we manage to trade Green, then things get interesting: assuming Gonzo is no longer around, would we be prepared to go with basically an all-rookie outfield (L-to-R, Hairston, Young, Quentin) in 2007? If not, then we could be back at re-signing Byrnes or DaVanon to stick around and anchor us in CF. Still, it's nice to have options...

by Jim McLennan on Jul 21, 2006 4:40 PM EDT 0 recs

Minor leauge arms

are there any good young arms on the market that we can snatch? we struggle in that area in our minor leauge system

by flyingdutchman on Jul 21, 2006 8:30 PM EDT 0 recs

Reason I don't keep Byrnes

Above all else, how many guys have come into this team and had 1 good-to-great year, get signed to a contract, and proceed to suck for the duration of that contract? This organization always thinks it's struck gold and never sells high.

His value will never be higher then it is right now. If you get something of value and he goes on to still be good, oh well. We still have Davanon, Chris Young, and some guy named Upton waiting in the CF wings.

I'm less of a fan of just playing out the year with him and making a feeble attempt at the playoffs, but our GM will do what he does.

by nihil67 on Jul 22, 2006 10:55 AM EDT 0 recs

Good point...

Exhibit A: Tony Clark. It's certainly true to say that Byrnes' value will never be higher, and we have an at least credible alternative in Chris Young, while Upton matures (assuming he does - his stats so far have been not exactly awesome, but he's still very young).

On the other hand, always a difficult balance to strike, between getting value and giving a player away. I don't think we should trade Byrnes just for the sake of it though, and even if we crash and burn in the playoffs, simply making it there would be a powerful statement that would help build interest down the line for 2007. Something along the line of: well, we were good enough to make the playoffs last year, and we've improved the team through X, Y and Z. So where might we go now?

I think this team is good enough to do that, far above what I expected at the start of the season. So I am reluctant to trade away players yet, unless the return genuinely justifies it.

by Jim McLennan on Jul 22, 2006 3:37 PM EDT up 0 recs

A very good Point indeed!

As Jim points out with Tony Clark.

by unnamedDBacksfan on Jul 22, 2006 9:20 PM EDT up 0 recs

Byrnes is Great??

"I've been convinced: Byrnes is great. End of discussion."

Actually...this just may be the beginning of the discussion.

I would agree he had a great May. Incredible. I would not agree at all that he is a great player.
I mean, C'mon, the guy came into this season with exactly a 100 OPS+, (.761 Career OPS)

His OPS by month this season

April .691
May 1.123
June .749
July .787

I don't fee that one hot month of may makes him a great player, by any stretch of the imagination.

His defense is...um....interesting. Ok...he is fun to watch if you like that sort of thing, and in fact, according to Advanced Zone Rating Metrics that Chris Dial over at BTF produces, he has in fact one of the better CF'ers this year.

But the guy has a history of going in the tank in August and September, and his overall production has simply been league average to this point in his career. His season numbers still look so much above average because of his incredible May...but by the time the season is over, and the larger sample size smooths things out, he won't look so great.

OPS By month for career, prior to 2006

April .771
May .861
June .797
July .710
August.691
Sept .628

See a trend here?
Why on earth anyone would want to sign him for 4 years for ages 31,32,33 & 34 is beyond me. ESPECIALLY when you consider who we have ready to take over in CF, (and LF and RF for that matter)

Byrnes probably WILL get a 3 yr 15 million deal from some team next year, especially if he manages to avoid the late season collapses of years past. I realize just because it has happened every year before this year does not mean it will happen this year. But I would fall out of my chair and have a hard time picking myself up off the floor if Josh Byrnes actually extended Byrnes to anything other than a bargain basement 2 year deal.

by shoewizard on Jul 22, 2006 7:43 PM EDT 0 recs

Second-degree Byrnes

Appreciate your post, Shoe. I would say that, overall this season, Byrnes has the 3rd-best OPS of any NL center-fielder. The two ahead are Beltran ($13.6m) and Andruw Jones ($13.5m), and he's in front of more-expensive players like Cameron and Edmonds, so I think he's been a real bargain this year. Even if he does follow previous years, I think he's still justified his signing and the $2.25m, far better than I thought.

As for future years...I'd go with Young, personally. But one thing worth mentioning is that Byrnes has become a fan favorite, in a way other newcomers to the team, such as Jackson, can only dream of. It's possible he would attract casual fans to the park, while not sucking, performance-wise. He is a "personality", and while that alone isn't enough to make for his purchase, the fans he'd attract should be a factor to consider in assessing his value. However, it would certainly have to be at the right price, first and foremost.

by Jim McLennan on Jul 23, 2006 2:28 AM EDT 0 recs

Don't keep him if you're not going to let him play

Byrnes got enough crap treatment from Billy Beane; he doesn't need it from Josh Byrnes.

If Byrnes is going to stay on this team, it had better be to play and it had better be for more playing time then he is getting this year. He does not make a good 4th outfielder, and if that is this team's intention, then let him go. DaVanon is better for that role.

by Just Me on Jul 24, 2006 11:40 AM EDT 0 recs

Thanks for the welcome matt :)

I agree that Byrnes has been fantastic bang for the buck. EXCELLENT evaluation by Josh Byrnes. He's a smarter man than I.

I also agree that he might not be suited to a 4th outfielder role, and if for no other reasons than money, Davanon would be a better guy in that role.

If Byrnes manages to beat his previous years trends, and finishes up strong, he is just going to be too expensive.

by shoewizard on Jul 24, 2006 6:40 PM EDT 0 recs

I'll say it again, Byrnes needs to be sold

He had a great single month, and I'm happy for him and the team that it happened, but I can't stress enough that this is another guy the team should be selling (medium)high on.

His RATE and RAA stats have now dipped below average. 99 and -1 respectively. He's 7 runs above a replacement in CF. His BRAA is 8 and BRAR is 18. decent, but coming down. To compare, Andruw Jones has a BRAA of 16 and a BRAR of 28.

Ryan Freel, the next CF'er on the NL OPS list, has a BRAA of 11 and a BRAR of 19. He's also a better (part-time) center-fielder. RATE is 113, and RAA is 4. Jim Edmonds, next on the OPS list, BRAA of 9 and BRAR of 19. Edmonds also grades out better in center... RATE of 102 and a RAA of 1.

All said, he's a nice player, but not an overly-outstanding center fielder. He's a nice puzzle-piece left-fielder on a team that doesn't need outfield puzzle pieces yet. Sell for pitching.

by nihil67 on Jul 24, 2006 7:48 PM EDT 0 recs