NL West Projections

Where do you pull these numbers from?  

You've got Conor Jackson, who showed no power last year, hitting 11 homers in 414 at bats.  A homer every 37.64 at bats.  The only seasons he EVER hit at a rate even close to that was in Hi-A when he hit a homer ever 23.5 at bats and in AA when he hit one every 37.7 at bats.  AAA?  One every 41.6 ABs.  Conor is a Mark Grace type hitter, not a power guy.

Luis Gonzalez is going to see 518 at bats, but lower his OBP 21 points and significatly lower his home run rate?  Why would Carlos Quentin only be getting 231 at bats?  He's be called up pretty fast, I'd think.  Especially since he's going to hit .294 with a .373 OBP.

I don't think that 11 home runs is excessive. If he has a week with 3, he can still have that rate. Again, the projections are a combination of previous information, looking at age and then... it's a guess.

I happen to think that Quentin should have just been given the CF job out of training camp. Bringing in Byrnes was a mistake.

I understand your point on Gonzalez, but he's the kind of guy that a manager will probably keep in. He has earned that, even if he may not still earn it. Now, that isn't a statistical reasoning, but more of a subjective reasoning.

Of course, Byrnes coule play plenty of LF too if Quentin gets off to another strong start. But again, that is what is so great about projections. We can look at them again at the All-Star break and after the season and see how far off I probably will be.

Change your predictions, folks.  One JOSH FOGG has been added to the Rox.  Get a load of their starting pitching depth chart:

1. J. Jennings
   
2. A. Cook
   
3. J. Francis
   
4. B. Kim
   
5. Z. Day
   
6. J. Fogg
   
7. S. Kim
   
8. M. Esposito
   

I guess their strategy is: if you can't get good pitchers, load up on bad ones!
To be fair, they still may be better than the D-Backs.  But why would anybody want Fogg?  I feel sorry for those poor Rockies fans.  They've had a rough decade of baseball.