NL West Projections

by SethSpeaks on Feb 4, 2006 9:28 PM EST Comment 7 comments

If you're looking for one more look at what players may or may not do in 2006 (for fantasy purposes, or just to see who is where), be sure to check out my 2006 Projections for the NL West. (I have some very positive outlooks for several Diamondbacks hitters) It is Part 4 of my Fantasy Perspectives.

You can find it by going to www.SethSpeaks.net

Thanks,

You can find it by going to www.SethSpeaks.net

Thanks,

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wow

Where do you pull these numbers from?

You've got Conor Jackson, who showed no power last year, hitting 11 homers in 414 at bats. A homer every 37.64 at bats. The only seasons he EVER hit at a rate even close to that was in Hi-A when he hit a homer ever 23.5 at bats and in AA when he hit one every 37.7 at bats. AAA? One every 41.6 ABs. Conor is a Mark Grace type hitter, not a power guy.

Luis Gonzalez is going to see 518 at bats, but lower his OBP 21 points and significatly lower his home run rate? Why would Carlos Quentin only be getting 231 at bats? He's be called up pretty fast, I'd think. Especially since he's going to hit .294 with a .373 OBP.

by nihil67 on Feb 5, 2006 3:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

counter-points

I don't think that 11 home runs is excessive. If he has a week with 3, he can still have that rate. Again, the projections are a combination of previous information, looking at age and then... it's a guess.

I happen to think that Quentin should have just been given the CF job out of training camp. Bringing in Byrnes was a mistake.

I understand your point on Gonzalez, but he's the kind of guy that a manager will probably keep in. He has earned that, even if he may not still earn it. Now, that isn't a statistical reasoning, but more of a subjective reasoning.

Of course, Byrnes coule play plenty of LF too if Quentin gets off to another strong start. But again, that is what is so great about projections. We can look at them again at the All-Star break and after the season and see how far off I probably will be.

by SethSpeaks on Feb 5, 2006 3:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yeah... guessing

"I happen to think that Quentin should have just been given the CF job out of training camp. Bringing in Byrnes was a mistake."

IF Quentin was going to get a job out of spring training, it would have been RF or LF. He's able to play center, but it's not good.

You'll never see me agree with the Byrnes signing, but I still think there's something about Quentin's game that has our GM/scouting/manager sligtly worried about handing him a job right out of spring. If they weren't worried, either Green or Quentin would be penciled in as the CFer and Byrnes never gets signed.

by nihil67 on Feb 5, 2006 10:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Projections are like...ah, belly-buttons. :-)

Desperately trying to keep the subject line above the gutter... I think 11 is a little high for Jackson, and I'd say 7-8 is probably closer. 11 is not impossible: remember, he hit two in one game, so do that a couple more times over the season and he'll be half-way there.

I think what happens with Gonzo will depend on whereabout we sit, standings-wise, as much as his own performance. If we're still in contention, and Gonzo has been sucking, then odds are he'll be replaced, somehow. Not sure what'll happen if we're out of contention, and he's sucking: he might just be left to play out the final year of his contract quietly. Or we might take it as a chance to see what happens with the alternative candidates.

However, I see little point in them dumping Quentin in CF for what, almost certainly, would be just a one-year stint. Assuming Chris Young keeps up his performances in the minors, then he'll definitely be the 2007 starting CF, and where will Quentin go then? I can't see him or Drew getting 200 ABs this year.

And I can only presume it's a misprint that you gave Gonzalez as the "good" about the team. If Luis's performance is the high point of the 2006 season, it'll be a long year!

by Jim McLennan on Feb 6, 2006 2:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The more I think about it

the more I think I see where the Diamondbacks are going with Quentin. Along the same vein what you were just saying Jim, why put him in a place to fail? I think moreso, why start the clock on him? Yeah, he may be ready, but Gonzo and Green are in his way. Why bring him up to either have him ride the bench or play out of position? It wouldn't make sense.

I'd get behind that if it's the real reason.

by nihil67 on Feb 6, 2006 4:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A Foggy Day

Change your predictions, folks. One JOSH FOGG has been added to the Rox. Get a load of their starting pitching depth chart:

J. Jennings
A. Cook
J. Francis
B. Kim
Z. Day
J. Fogg
S. Kim
M. Esposito

I guess their strategy is: if you can't get good pitchers, load up on bad ones!
To be fair, they still may be better than the D-Backs. But why would anybody want Fogg? I feel sorry for those poor Rockies fans. They've had a rough decade of baseball.

by johngordonma on Feb 10, 2006 3:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

meaningless, but interesting

Fogg is actually not that bad vs the NL West.

vs ARI
4 games, 3-0, 2.39 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 2-0 in Chase after 2 games with a 2.08 ERA.

vs SD
2 games, 1-1, 4.35 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 1-0 in Petco after 1 game with a 1.42 ERA.

vs SF
5 games, 2-0, 3.30 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 2-0 in SBC after 4 games with a 3.00 ERA.

vs LA
7 games, 2-3, 3.86 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, 1-2 in Dodger Std. after 4 games with a 3.38 ERA.

He is one of those guys that may turn it around with a change in scenary. He really struggled in PNC park, but Coors probably was not the best place to go.

by nihil67 on Feb 10, 2006 7:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs