A last look at the Glaus deal

by Otacon on Jan 5, 2006 7:14 PM EST

Frank Bundy III, a poster at the MLBCenter forums and a writer at athomeplate.com examines the Glaus trade and tells you who "won":

http://athomeplate.com/sb10406.shtml

The lone part that will upset some of you is him saying that Sergio Santos is a "non-prospect". In the end though, we really had no desperate need to cling on to Santos.

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sabermetrics

They only tell how a guy did and don't consider variables (health, mindset, playing for a shitty team, etc). Guys have good years, guys have bad years, guys get old, guys have mental breakdowns.

They're also no guarantee for the future. That guy saying that Hudson is good because he plays good defence and has a nice WARP3 (mach chicken?) its the same as me saying that you have to look at Drew's AA numbers last year and expect him to not be very good this year. It's opinion, both can be backed up by historical examples, both can be disproven with just as many examples.

by nihil67 on Jan 5, 2006 7:32 PM EST reply actions

I am probably

on of the last people to get into about SABRmetrics debate since I'm trying to learn and get a deeper understanding of some of the Baseball Prospectus stats out there too. With that said:

Yes, they dont include variables. They can't predict off-years, career years, or take into account injured years. They do however, give you an objective view on a certain player or team. I wouldn't go as far as saying that they're not a guarantee for the future since you can conviceably(sometimes rather easily) project what a player can do or if his production is set for a decline.

Here's an article on BP that closely resembles the above article, a review on the D'backs moves:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4692

This isn't directly directd to you nihil, so don't take it like I'm talking to you.:)

Some things to take from the article:

BP suggests that with the weak pitching market out there, Byrnes and Co. are banking on getting a stronger defense to improve Arizona's pitching compared to last year.
The moves SHOULD improve the defense enough to prevent 50 LESS runs than last year while at the same time slashing payroll and having more flexibility with the money.

Side note- A comment on "premium position". Studies have shown that defense is way more important if you play shortshtop, second base, center field, or catcher. Any offensive production is a plus. Just a FYI for anyone out there.

- They have Eric Byrnes as being an upgrade defensviely by a lot. It's not that he in fact is that great, it's because Cruz and Green "butchered" center so much, that adding Byrnes would be the equivelant of adding a Gold Glover out there. A suprise to me actually.

by Otacon on Jan 7, 2006 3:41 AM EST up reply actions

I like the deal, but...

if you listen to Bundy you'd think we got Joe Morgan and Cy Young in exchange for beer money. I'm not horrified to lose Santos, but "non-prospect?" Ouch...

by Louchart45 on Jan 5, 2006 9:46 PM EST reply actions